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Thread: Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac - Your Ticket to Fortune (and possibly Fame)

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  1. #51  
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHOPTALK View Post
    Very nice day. What is it going to take for them to get back on the NYSE
    They can't relist until they are out of CONservatorship. FHFA was the decision maker to remove them from NYSE. They will be re-listed when they are re-capitalized and returned to private ownership. Which probably isn't too far away with today's Mandamus decision.
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  2. #52  
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    Mandamus ruling on previous page.

    We are now winning on both fronts, Judicial and Political. Judicial was the easy one, but Political will make it an even better long-term picture.

    ICYMI -- This came out last week: https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-...-bill/491/text

    FYI -- Mnuchin's confirmation hearing is today also. Even more reason to continue to run.
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  3. #53  
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    New Article from Gretchen Morgenson re: today's Mandamus ruling -- https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/30/b...peal.html?_r=0

    Excerpt:
    “This is a sweeping victory for the plaintiffs and, more broadly, for the rule of law and transparency in our government,” Charles J. Cooper, chairman of Cooper & Kirk, which is representing Fairholme Funds, said in a statement. “It is clear from the Court of Appeals’ unanimous ruling that the vast bulk of the 11,000 documents withheld by the government will now have to be disclosed to the plaintiffs and the courts, and we are confident that these documents will further discredit the government’s defense narrative.”
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    Mnuchin confirmation was delayed until today, but then Dems decided to no-show for the vote. I assume we still get a vote this week. Committee Leaders can push this through to the Senate floor if Dems continue delay tactics.

    This is an awesome response to the otherwise garbage piece put out by the MBA (backed by TBTF Banks) earlier today -- https://www.scribd.com/document/3380...ples-report-wb
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    Good info in Fairholme's 2016 Annual Report ... Berkowitz is one of the main people backing litigation against the Government. He was also previously on the Board of Directors at Sear's with none other than Steven Mnuchin. Are you guys starting to see how this is all coming together?

    http://www.fairholmefundsinc.com/Rep...2016Annual.pdf
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    ICYMI: "Hatch says the Senate Parliamentarian has OK'd the Committee' route suspend the rules and favorably report Mnuchin/Price" ... So Finance Committee has officially sent Mnuchin to the Senate floor for a confirmation vote. This will likely get wrapped up this week. Mnuchin confirmation equals another boom (as if that isn't already happening, LOL).

    Hope you're enjoying the ride.
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  7. #57  
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    Do you have a preference Fannie vs Freedie ?
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  8. #58  
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    Fannie Mae has gotta be safer, they're going to be backing over a billion dollars worth of blackstone rental properties.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/25/gover...ness-debt.html

    If that works out then they probably expand those operations rather than the usual home owner subsidization business.
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  9. #59  
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHOPTALK View Post
    Do you have a preference Fannie vs Freedie ?

    Freddie is actually in a better position from a financial perspective as they have paid the Treasury more on a percentage basis than they received as compared to Fannie. If they decide to use the "dividend" payments and count that as payment on principle on the original loan + 10% interest (personally I think it'll be lowered to 5%), then Freddie would be fully repaid or will likely be paid after they report Q4 2016 results and make one final payment.

    There is a small possibility that Freddie could start paying Dividends on their Pref shares 1-2 quarters before Fannie, which would cause their Preferreds to hold a higher premium to Fannie's (which is currently the opposite of what the market is pricing in, but markets arent always efficient)

    Fannie Mae does have a much larger market share, but keep in mind the Government seems to be pushing towards a Single Security (CSP). This benefits Freddie as it will allow them to steal market share from Fannie. All in all, you can't really go wrong with either. I'm split 55% Fannie and 45% Freddie, but tend to swap when arbitrage presents itself. My focus is always on FNMFN and FMCCT due to their yield and historical premium to Par. I also like FMCCP and FMCKJ. FMCKJ has a 5-year Call restriction (2012, 2017, 2022) which would prevent it from getting Called by the company until Dec 2022 [since it won't get Called this year]. FNMAS also has a 5-year Call restriction which means it can't get called until Dec 2020. FNMAO and FNMAP also have Call restrictions, but it's only for 2 years and I dont know the dates off-hand. These Preferreds help buy you security and lock-in Divis for a few years, as the Companies are likely to Call [buy back at Par Value or buy on the open market] the higher yielding Prefs at some point and these specific ones can't get Called except on the anniversary dates.

    Hope this provides some clarification.
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    This is likely the reason for the big moves today: https://twitter.com/timdillen1/statu...33625604308992

    I'm hearing Mnuchin might also get confirmed by the Senate today also. Possible Executive Order re: GSE's is on the table as well.

    Buckle Up, might be an ever bigger spike later today.
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    This shit could explode if it gets relisted
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    Over 70% of all potential money to invest in stocks is off limits to OTC companies.
    Omce this thing gets listed it opens the gates for more money
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  13. #63  
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    Richard Epstein's latest -- Fairholme's Big Win on Discovery:


    http://www.forbes.com/sites/richarde.../#7cdedc2171bf
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    It sure seems to be getting better with each passing day. "Chuck Cooper emerges as Trump’s likely choice for solicitor general" ... in case you didn't know, Cooper is the Lead Attorney for Fairholme's case against the Government. LOL! I can't make this stuff up. Everything has come together so much better than even I imagined.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/chuck-coo...132121716.html


    Some background on Cooper: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itzoDg3s5GI
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    FNMFN down from $17 to $11 today. Why? Looks like a nice entry point.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steiner69eR View Post
    FNMFN down from $17 to $11 today. Why? Looks like a nice entry point.
    I think your broker is giving you a mis-quote. It hasn't gone under $18. Currently, it's $18.60 x $18.68

    I think anything under $20 for FNMFN or FMCCT is still a ridiculous steal. I expect these to trade at a 5% premium to Par ($50).
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  17. #67  
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    FYI - Mnuchin nomination vote is on Monday, 2/13, at ~7pm EST. This morning's cloture results were 51-48. Looks to be a lock. Not sure how much is already priced in, but I don't expect many pull-backs once he's in.
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    ICYMI -- Vice President Mike Pence is bringing in the Cato Institute's Mark Calabria as his chief economist. See Calabria's stance on what the Government did to Fannie & Freddie here: https://www.cato.org/multimedia/medi...ntdown-closing
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  20. #70  
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    this is not bad business for the govt i.e...Freddie Mac:

    In all, after the quarter’s dividend (~4 billion), the company will have sent $105.9 billion to the Treasury, compared with the $71.3 billion infusion it has received.
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    Freddie is re-instating FAS 133 accounting. This was a huge revelation from Freddie's 10K today. FHFA had to remove FAS 133 accounting so they could write-down all of the GSE's assets to next to nothing.

    The reinstatement of FAS 133 evidences that the GSE's are no longer operating to maximize enrichment of the Treasury. Now, with FAS 133 back on the table, we can assume the companies will once again be allowed to retain capital and will start to work towards doing so by marking their assets value accordingly. It also means there are no more derivative gains/losses.

    They also added the word "Scheduled" to their treasury dividend obligation. This verbiage has never been there before and may signal a change of direction. We may finally be done with the NWS!!
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  22. #72  
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    the spread on these are a joke! FNMFM = 17.15/18.45
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  23. #73  
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Falls View Post
    the spread on these are a joke! FNMFM = 17.15/18.45
    Some have a low amount of shares outstanding and/or are tightly held by some of the plaintiffs involved in the legal cases. I would recommend FMCKJ or FNMAS if you're looking for pure liquidity. I believe liquidity will return significantly as the tide shifts more and more. FNMFN is usually less than a .20 spread, FNMFM doesnt have many shares outstanding and usually has a big spread.
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  24. #74  
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    House members' letter to Mel Watt about Blackstone -- https://www.scribd.com/document/3396...lackstone-deal
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