How To Bet Sunday Nights Cubs-Giants MLB Game

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[h=1]How to bet Sunday night's Cubs-Giants matchup[/h]MLB Vegas ExpertsESPN Chalk
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ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball stays in the National League this week with theChicago Cubs visiting the San Francisco Giants.
The Cubs enter Sunday with the best record in Major League Baseball at 29-12 (.707 despite going 4-6 in their past 10 games) and a 6.5-game lead in the NL Central. The Giants have the seventh-best record in the majors at 26-19 (.578 after winning nine of their last 10) but have the second-biggest division lead (3.5 games over the Colorado Rockies).
The Giants are trying to win their fourth World Series title this decade after triumphing in the even years of 2010, 2012 and 2014. The Cubs are trying to win their third title in 11 decades, to go with their championships in 1907 and 1908.
This is the rubber game of a three-game weekend series, as the Cubs won 8-1 Friday night and the Giants bounced back with a 5-3 victory on Saturday. The Giants are a -122 favorite tonight behind ace Madison Bumgarner. The Cubs go with No. 4 starter Kyle Hendricks.
Here at ESPN Chalk, we try to begin your baseball betting week on a winning note as we break down the Sunday Night matchup. Last week, Joe Peta had his second straight win with the St. Louis Cardinals +140 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Tonight, he's on the same side as Andrew Lange while Dave Tuley weighs in on the over/under.
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Westgate line: Chicago Cubs (Hendricks) +112/San Francisco Giants (Bumgarner) -122
Over/under: 7 PickCenter Intel
PickCenter Intel

Joe Peta: As comedian and former "The Daily Show" host Jon Stewart used to say, "Ooh, we got a good one for you tonight." As fans, we're treated to the best team in baseball facing one of the best pitchers in baseball, in arguably the best venue MLB has to offer. As bettors, we get a very intriguing matchup to handicap. There's the chance to back the Cubs as an underdog for just the fourth time this year. Think about that for a second; this is Chicago's 42nd game of the year, and only once were they more of an underdog than they are tonight. (That was on May 2, in Pittsburgh, when they were +130 underdogs toGerrit Cole. Of course, they won 7-2 and you could just imagine oddsmakers saying, "we're never doing that again.")
On the other hand, unless he's matched up against Clayton Kershaw, you just don't get a chance to back Madison Bumgarner at home and lay only -120. In fact, in a game between two evenly matched teams on a neutral field, fair odds would, of course, be +100 for each team. Given that home field is worth an 8 percent edge in baseball (home teams historically win 54 percent of their games), fair odds for those same two teams would be +117/-117 in favor of the home team. So tonight, we're essentially being asked to determine the better neutral-field team between the Cubs with Kyle Hendricks or the Giants behind Bumgarner.
To be precise, I suppose I should add "and without Jason Heyward" to the Cubs part of the equation, because his absence is the driving force behind this rather strong opinion. We all knew the Cubs were going to be very good this season, but the key variable in driving their attention-grabbing, triple-digit run differential through the first quarter of the season was their defense.
The Cubs were consistently converting batted balls into outs (and erasing existing baserunners) at an incredibly high rate, week in and week out, for the first six weeks of the season. That rate, which would shatter the adjusted defensive efficiency stats I've been calculating for five years, has the impact of lowering a pitcher's ERA about 0.60 compared to an average defense. Heyward's absence, and the move of Ben Zobrist from second base to right field, arguably hurts the Cubs at two different positions defensively and materially changes their runs-allowed projection.
By my numbers, I'd like Bumgarner and the Giants at this price if the Cubs were at full strength, but the downgrade in defense works to make the Giants an easy call for me tonight. And for the first time since I started writing for ESPN Chalk in 2015, I'll be at the game rooting on my pick (silently, of course, as I know the rules: No cheering in the press box).
ESPN Chalk pick: San Francisco Giants -122

Andrew Lange: What stands out to me in this matchup is not only seeing Madison Bumgarner as a -122 home favorite, but Kyle Hendricks as the opposing team's starter. Hendricks has been solid during his brief career but still grades out as a middle-of-the-rotation National League arm. The reason for this is that Hendricks plays for a Chicago Cubs squad that is not only winning games at a high clip but also completely dominating the competition (plus-2.8 run differential) with numbers baseball has rarely if ever seen.
But for Hendricks it's "guilt by association." Of his seven starts, four have seen him priced as a favorite of -200 or more. The Cubs won only one of those four starts because while Hendricks was serviceable, he simply didn't perform like a 2-1 favorite (22 IP, 10 ERs). I'm fairly certain that if you bet against the likes of Hendricks, John Lackey,and Jason Hammel -- solid pitchers but often priced like aces because of Chicago's success and market respect -- you're going to find really good opportunities to profit.
Obviously tonight is a different circumstance as Hendricks and the Cubs are small road underdogs. But there's a far bigger discrepancy between Bumgarner and Hendricks than the current game price of -122/+112. I still grade out the Giants as having the second-best lineup in the National League to go along with an above-average defense and bullpen. Even though the Cubs are heavily inflated in virtually every game they play, I'm accepting of the fact that they are the best team in the National League. That said, the starting pitching matchup and price points heavily toward the Giants.
ESPN Chalk pick: San Francisco Giants -122

Dave Tuley: At first glance, you might look to the over in tonight's matchup with two of MLB's best offenses squaring off after going over the total the last two days and having only an over/under of 7 runs.
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</article>But I'm going to make a case for the under. Reason No. 1 is Madison Bumgarner, as we all know he's a big-game pitcher and even though this is just a regular-season game in May, it does have the feel of a statement game for two of the National League's best teams. Bumgarner held the Cubs' potent offense to one run the last time they met in San Francisco (last August), and in that same series the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks pitched well in losing 4-2. So even though both offenses are better this season, there's room for hope from those past performances.
Plate umpire Ed Hickox is a concern as he's 4-2 with the over so far this season after going 15-12 last year, but he was more of an under ump at 19-8 in 2014 and is 58-58 since 2012 (and pretty close to 50/50 for his career). Besides, if you look at the pitchers who have started the games when he's been behind the plate this season, there's not a superstar among them.
As much as I love the Cubs' offense, Bumgarner isn't likely to get lit up, so this comes down to how well Hendricks fares against the Giants' lineup. I'm looking for a pitchers' duel in what will likely be a playoff preview.
ESPN Chalk pick: Under 7
 

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