Lightning & Penguins Face Difficult Goalie Decisions This Summer

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[h=1]Penguins, Lightning face difficult goalie decisions this summer[/h]Matthew CollerHockey Prospectus
ESPN INSIDER

Even with Sidney Crosby hunting for his second Stanley Cup and Steven Stamkos working toward a comeback from blood clot issues, the biggest storyline of the Eastern Conference finals has been the goaltending situation for both the Pittsburgh Penguins and Tampa Bay Lightning. Though the two teams' circumstances are different, the outcome could shape how each club approaches its future in net.
The Penguins' road to the conference finals was paved by terrific performances by rookie goaltender Matt Murray, but head coach Mike Sullivan still elected to return to starter Marc-Andre Fleury after Murray managed just an .889 save percentage in the first four games against the Lightning. On Tampa Bay's side, young netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy was given the net when No. 1 starter Ben Bishop suffered a leg injury in Game 1, and has posted an outstanding .925 save percentage in the series since that point.
While it might be preferable for both teams to stick with their veteran No. 1 goalies long term, both teams have some challenging salary-cap-related choices to make this offseason (and beyond) that may lead them to consider handing the reins over to the whiz kids. Furthermore, if an expansion draft is coming, teams will be more inclined to move an extra goalie with term left on their contracts so that they don't lose them for nothing.
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The result of this series won't make or break either team's decision, but it will be the last impression for either Penguins GM Jim Rutherford or Steve Yzerman, his counterpart with the Lightning.
[h=2]Penguins: Fleury vs. Murray[/h]
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The Penguins were forced to turn to Murray after Fleury had a late-season concussion. Many predicted that the playoffs would be difficult for a young, inexperienced goalie, especially when facing the New York Rangers -- who scored the most even-strength goals in the NHL in the regular season -- but Murray was dazzling, winning all three of his starts (Jeff Zatkoff started the other games in the series), and allowing only four total goals.
The second round brought the Washington Capitals, the best overall scoring team in the Eastern Conference and one of the most dynamic power plays in the league. Once again, Murray was up to the task, leading the Penguins over Alex Ovechkin and the Caps in six games. Murray had a .926 save percentage for the series overall, and save percentages of .958, .959, .944 and .923 in the four games he won.
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YEARGPSAVE
PERCENTAGE
200750.880
2008200.933
2009240.908
2010130.891
201170.899
201260.834
201350.883
2014130.915
201550.927

<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Fleury's Playoff History</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</aside>Tampa Bay has given Murray more problems than his first two opponents did, as they scored 11 goals on just 99 shots. Sullivan elected to turn back to Fleury for Game 5 -- a somewhat bold move considering Murray's huge performances in big games against the Capitals and Fleury's history of problems in the playoffs, which includes four straight early exits from the postseason with sub-.900 save percentages. He was even benched in favor of Tomas Vokounduring the 2013 playoffs.
However, Fleury has come a long way from his earlier postseason struggles during the past two seasons. The former No. 1 overall pick has tallied his two highest career save percentage seasons (with over 40 games) and two highest even-strength save percentage campaigns. He also had a strong performance against the Rangers in last year's playoffs, in which he managed a .927 save percentage.
"Old Fleury" showed up in Game 5, as Pittsburgh's netminder allowed four goals, including a pinballing overtime winner to Tyler Johnson. Now Sullivan will have to choose between a shaky Fleury or a rookie who hit a bump in the road.
Moving Fleury would give Rutherford much more flexibility in the free agent and trade market; Fleury has a $5.75 million cap hit and won't enter free agency until 2019. Since Fleury has had back-to-back quality seasons, the Penguins would also be able to fetch decent return on their veteran goalie (if he waives his no-movement clause). Of course, that would mean taking the risk of stepping away from a Cup winner on a team that has a limited window to win another one, with Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Phil Kessel all at the tail end of their primes.
The most difficult question the Penguins' brass is facing is how much it should trust Murray's small-sample results. His early playoff success was no fluke, as he dominated the American Hockey League for two seasons, with save percentages of .941 and .931. In 13 NHL games before the playoffs, his terrific play carried over from the AHL, as he posted a .930 save percentage.
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LEAGUETEAMSEASONGPSAVE
PERCENTAGE
OHLSault Ste. Marie Greyhounds2013-14490.921
AHLWilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins2014-15400.941
AHLWilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins2015-16310.931
NHLPittsburgh Penguins2015-16130.930
NHL playoffsPittsburgh Penguins2015-16130.923

<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Matt Murray Save Percentages, 2013-14 To 2015-16</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</aside>The amount that the goalie is relied upon for the Penguins could also be a deciding factor. When Fleury was in the net this season, the Penguins had a .921 save percentage, when he was not in net (with either Murray or Zatkoff there instead), the team's save percentage was .923. Is Pittsburgh a good enough top-to-bottom club that the transition from whiz kid to No. 1 goalie will be smooth for Murray?
If Fleury gets the net for the duration and leads the Penguins to the Stanley Cup finals, it would be unlikely for Rutherford to trade him this offseason. If Sullivan elects to go with Murray, it could mean the end of Fleury in Pittsburgh.
[h=2]Lightning: Bishop vs. Vasilevskiy[/h]
i
For the Lightning, a series victory with their highly touted prospect in goal could hasten the end of Bishop in Tampa Bay, despite the 6-foot-7 goalie landing a spot as a Vezina Trophy finalist. Bishop is set to make $5.95 million on the cap in 2016-17 and 2017-18 before hitting free agency (he also has a no-movement clause). Vasilevskiy brings along a cap hit under $1 million for next season, and becomes a restricted free agent in 2018, which will require much less of an investment from the Lightning than an unrestricted free agent.
The Lightning might be more inclined to deal their goalie than the Penguins if they plan on re-signing Stamkos. The former No. 1 overall pick might demand as much as a $10 million cap hit per season, which will be impossible to afford without parts being moved out. Even if Tampa Bay allows Stamkos to hit the open market, scoring winger Nikita Kucherov is a restricted free agent this offseason. In two years, things get even more hairy, with Victor Hedman set to become a UFA, and Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Jonathan Drouin and Andrej Sustr reaching RFA status.
Bishop, however, might be too good for the Lightning to part ways. In Pittsburgh's situation, Fleury's playoff struggles and mediocre regular-season play in the past have opened the door for the Penguins to try something else, but Bishop has been an ace since acquiring him in a trade with the Ottawa Senators at the 2013 deadline. In 191 starts in Tampa Bay, Bishop has a .922 save percentage and a .927 mark in the playoffs. Outside of Henrik Lundqvistand Carey Price, it is hard to find a goalie playing much better than that in both the regular season and playoffs.
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LEAGUETEAMSEASONGPSAVE
PERCENTAGE
KHLSalavat Yulaev Ufa2013-14280.923
KHL PlayoffsSalavat Yulaev Ufa2013-14180.934
AHLSyracuse Crunch2014-15250.917
NHLTampa Bay Lightning2014-15160.918
NHL PlayoffsTampa Bay Lightning2014-1540.895
AHLSyracuse Crunch2015-16120.935
NHLTampa Bay Lightning2015-16240.910
NHL PlayoffsTampa Bay Lightning2015-1660.928

<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Andrei Vasilevskiy Save Percentages, 2013-14 To 2015-16</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</aside>The Lightning might also feel Vasilevskiy still needs significant development before he is ready for anything more than fill-in duty. He has topped out at 28 games in a professional season; Bishop has started 60 or more in each of his three seasons with the club.
Unlike in Pittsburgh, Lightning coach Jon Cooper will not have to address a goalie controversy until the offseason. Cooper is a near lock to return to Bishop if they advance to the Stanley Cup finals (and Bishop is healthy enough to play).
However, just like his counterpart with the Penguins, Lightning GM Steve Yzerman faces a tough decision, given the small sample size of his young netminder, along with cap troubles on the way and the possibility of losing a goalie for nothing in an expansion draft.
 

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