[h=1]A POST SPRING LOOK AT THE TOP PROJECTED 2016 COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAMS—$[/h]LANDRYFOOTBALL — MAY 26, 2016
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At the conclusion of the NFL Draft is when I spend lots of time breaking down College Football Spring practice tape, go over last season’s film grade notes as well as review more film from last year in preparation for this fall’s campaign.
What I provide here is a list of SOME of the top teams that from a roster standpoint can contend for the national playoffs. More detailed analysis are forthcoming but this is just a little something to wet your football appetite.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Ohio State was the consensus No. 1 team in 2015, drawing all 61 preseason No. 1 votes. This year there should be four or five that garner first-place votes. Going with the defending champ in the No. 1 slot is usually a good call, and there’s not a better team to vote No. 1 then Alabama. Last year there were a lot of doubters when it came to the Tide, who were not even picked by SEC media to win the conference (they picked Auburn), let alone the national title. Alabama has to replace quarterback Jake Coker, but the last three national titles by the Tide all came with first-year starting quarterbacks. The Tide had the No. 1 recruiting class for four straight years (2012-15), finishing No. 2 behind only Florida State in the 2016 class rankings. With players like defensive end Jonathan Allen and linebacker Reuben Foster turning down the NFL, the defense remains one of, if not the best in the country. The Tide had just 10 returning starters last year and this year have 11 (plus both their kicker and punter), and with Nick Saban still in charge they will always be in contention.
Clemson Tigers
Quarterback Deshaun Watson and running back Wayne Gallman return to a team that put up 550 yards against the vaunted Tide defense in the title game. The Tigers also get back Mike Williams, who was their top wide receiver in 2014 but missed last year with injury.
Voters love when the skill players are back. Clemson did have five defensive starters leave early for the NFL draft, including shutdown corner Mackensie Alexander and stud defensive end Shaq Lawson, and also graduates leading tackler B.J. Goodson, but did fare well on defense last year with just three returning starters. The 37-17 win over Oklahoma in the CFP semifinals will keep the Tigers ahead of the Sooners in the August top 10, and will draw some votes for No.1.
Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners have 13 returning starters (plus their kicker and punter), including quarterback Baker Mayfield and running backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. Most computers will have them in the top three, with some even having them at No. 1. They have the most manageable schedule of the top three, with Houston and TCU the toughest road games, and figure to be favored in all 12 games.
Florida State Seminoles
Florida State will be stealing some first place votes from Clemson in the ACC media vote, as FSU gets the Tigers at home this year. The Seminoles are the most experienced of the top four teams, as they return 17 starters. The 2016 team is a much more veteran unit than the version than started 2015, which had zero returning starters on the offensive line and just four starters back on offense. This year the Noles return all 11 offensive starters, including Heisman Trophy-caliber running back Dalvin Cook. Only two players left early for the NFL (defensive back Jalen Ramsey and kicker Robert Aguayo), and FSU has more returning starters than it’s had in at least 20 years — from a team has lost just two regular season games in three years. They are playing their spring game in Orlando — the same stadium where they open the season vs. Ole Miss — and could be favored in every game this year.
LSU Tigers
Les Miles was on the verge of being fired late last year, but he has proven to be a Tiger with nine lives and bounced back with one of the nation’s top recruiting classes. The Tigers have 18 returning starters, which is the most in the SEC, and one of those returnees is running back and Heisman favorite Leonard Fournette. While LSU was depleted by the number
of players leaving early for the NFL in 2012 and 2013, and three left early after last season, just one starter left early after 2015 (offensive lineman Jerald Hawkins).
Ohio State Buckeyes
Much like Alabama, the Buckeyes just reload each year — their past four recruiting classes have all been in the top six of the rankings. But no team loses more players to the NFL draft, and the Buckeyes have just six starters returning. Quarterback J.T. Barrett is
back, and one quarterback may turn out to be better than the three OSU had last year. The offensive line is young, but that was the case in 2012 and 2014 as well, and Ohio State averaged 5.2 and 5.7 yards per carry, and 37.2 and 44.8 points per game, in those seasons. The Buckeyes draw Oklahoma on Sept. 17 but get Michigan at home on Nov. 26th. That will be their 12th game of the year, and they will no longer be a young team, just a very talented team with close to a full season under their belts. Also, remember that OSU beat Michigan 42-13 last year, and that was in Ann Arbor. Urban Meyer has a regular-season conference record of 31-1 in his four years at Ohio State.
Michigan Wolverines
The cupboard was not left bare by former head coach Brady Hoke, and Jim Harbaugh came in and got the most out of the talent on hand. While Michigan was blown out by Ohio State, it rebounded to leave a strong impression in voters’ minds with a 41-7 thrashing of SEC East champ Florida in the Citrus Bowl. The only other losses last season were due to a fumbled punt snap versus eventual Big Ten champ Michigan State, and a seven-point loss to Utah on the road in their season opener. The Wolverines return 13 starters and are expected to be strong on both sides of the ball. Also, Michigan will be improved at most positions and second-year head coaches generally make strides.
Stanford Cardinal
Stanford has six starters back on defense and should be one of the top units in the country. It also has one of the best offensive lines in the country and running back Christian McCaffrey, who broke Barry Sanders’ single-season all-purpose yards record and might have won the Heisman if the vote was taken after the 45-16 Rose Bowl crushing of Iowa. Stanford also beat Notre Dame in late November, which should keep the Cardinal slightly ahead of the Irish in the August poll.
Tennessee Volunteers
After starting 3-4, Tennessee won its final six to finish 9-4 and finish No. 22 in the end-of-season poll. That hardly sounds like a preseason top 10-caliber team — until you examine the four losses. The Vols dominated Oklahoma for three quarters, but blew a 17-3 fourth quarter lead and lost in overtime to a team that made the College Football Playoff. They led Florida 27-14 in the fourth quarter, but lost it late to a Gators team that would reach the SEC title game. They lost by four points to Arkansas, and then on the road they only lost to eventual national champion Alabama by five, being out-first-downed 23-21. Tennessee played a lot of freshmen the past few years, but will have to stop using the “we’re young” label as it is now a veteran group with 17 returning starters, including senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs and junior running back Jalen Hurd. The Vols will be the clear-cut favorite to win the SEC East and if the road to the title game is smooth, a win there could put them in the playoffs.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The 2015 squad was in the mix for a playoff spot late, despite losing a top defensive lineman, their top quarterback, and top two running backs for the season due to injuries. A loss to Stanford helped keep them out of the CFP, and then the Fighting Irish were handled by Ohio State (44-28) in the Fiesta Bowl. ND returns 10 starters overall, which is a step down from last year’s 16, but is a talented team with two solid quarterbacks in DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire. The team could be favored in every game this year until it travels to USC in week 12, but does face 10 bowl teams from last year. Despite the talent ahead of them on this list, I still could see the Irish making it into the top 10, and have included them here at number 11.
SOME OTHERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON
Utah
The Utes are notorious overachievers under Kyle Whittingham. Utah is facing turnover in the backfield, but they’ll be very good along both lines and in the secondary.
Wisconsin
The healthy return of Corey Clement means the ground troops will again be deep in Madison. Clement combined with the foundation of a sound defense will help the Badgers navigate a thorny schedule and compete with Iowa for the Big Ten West crown.
Houston
Tom Herman plus Greg Ward Jr. might equal 50 points per game for the Cougars, who’ll carry a tailwind into 2016. But the defense loses a ton of playmakers, which could get exposed versus Oklahoma and Louisville … and cost Houston a shot at a second straight New Year’s Six bowl berth.
Washington
In 2015, the Huskies rebuilt. In 2016, after using so many underclassmen, they’re ready to go airborne for Chris Petersen. If QB Jake Browning takes the next step as a sophomore, the defense is nasty enough to break Stanford and Oregon’s death grip on the Pac-12 North.
Iowa
After improbably starting 12-0 last season, the Hawkeyes have great preparation and development and they’ve also got a returning all-star behind center, C.J. Beathard, and a bunch of had-working former reserves itching to fill holes atop the depth chart.
TCU
After impressively milking 11 wins out of an injury-depleted squad, the Frogs are going to be much deeper on D, Gary Patterson’s specialty. Climbing up the Big 12 mountain, though, hinges on how well the team backfills all of the massive openings on the offensive side of the ball.
Oregon
The Ducks have issues in the trenches. Everywhere else, though, there’s the usual speed and skill that resides in Eugene. Newcomers Brady Hoke and Dakota Prukop have been imported to fix an awful defense and ignite the offense, respectively.
UCLA
After being besieged by injuries in 2015, the Bruins are hoping for far fewer casualties this fall. They’re also hoping that Josh Rosen can take the next big stride toward being one of college football’s premier young quarterbacks.
Louisville
After a brief retooling last year, the Cards could be the ACC’s biggest surprise of 2016. Electrifying QB Lamar Jackson is no longer a wide-eyed rookie, the defense will be suffocating and the entire program is feeling bullish after closing 2015 on a 6-1 run.
North Carolina
The Tar Heels are out to prove 2015 was no fluke. And they’ve got the talent to back up their goals. In fact, if Mitch Trubisky can take the baton from Marquise Williams at quarterback, Carolina can be every bit as successful as it was last year.
USC
Clay Helton gets his first chance to disprove the notion that Troy could have been pickier when choosing a permanent head coach. As usual, the Trojans have no shortages of talent, though a new quarterback must be broken in, and the D-line remains a serious question mark.
Michigan State
Mark Dantonio and his staff know how to build, a good thing considering the makeover being done on both sides of the ball. The recent history of the Spartans says this team will once again overachieve by making sure last year’s backups are ready to roll in 2016.
Georgia
It’s going to be a transition year in Athens, with Kirby Smart taking over as head coach and true freshman Jacob Eason—possibly—starting at quarterback. Still, there’s always talent at Georgia. And the formula of Smart’s defensive prowess and a backfield of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will keep the Dawgs in the SEC East hunt.
Ole Miss
Everyone is about to learn the limits of Chad Kelly’s potential. He’s the SEC premier quarterback, but his supporting cast won’t be what it was in 2015, so there’s more weight to carry. While Hugh Freeze keeps restocking the shelves, the Rebs are going to be a lot younger and inexperienced this fall.
Baylor
Their playmaking talent places them here but the offseason turmoil including a coaching change makes them a big question mark heading into their season. The Bears might need to score more points this season to offset a defense hit hard by graduation. Yeah, that’s rarely a worry for Art Briles, who has two quality hurlers in the stable. Beyond the D, Baylor must also retool
Members Area
At the conclusion of the NFL Draft is when I spend lots of time breaking down College Football Spring practice tape, go over last season’s film grade notes as well as review more film from last year in preparation for this fall’s campaign.
What I provide here is a list of SOME of the top teams that from a roster standpoint can contend for the national playoffs. More detailed analysis are forthcoming but this is just a little something to wet your football appetite.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Ohio State was the consensus No. 1 team in 2015, drawing all 61 preseason No. 1 votes. This year there should be four or five that garner first-place votes. Going with the defending champ in the No. 1 slot is usually a good call, and there’s not a better team to vote No. 1 then Alabama. Last year there were a lot of doubters when it came to the Tide, who were not even picked by SEC media to win the conference (they picked Auburn), let alone the national title. Alabama has to replace quarterback Jake Coker, but the last three national titles by the Tide all came with first-year starting quarterbacks. The Tide had the No. 1 recruiting class for four straight years (2012-15), finishing No. 2 behind only Florida State in the 2016 class rankings. With players like defensive end Jonathan Allen and linebacker Reuben Foster turning down the NFL, the defense remains one of, if not the best in the country. The Tide had just 10 returning starters last year and this year have 11 (plus both their kicker and punter), and with Nick Saban still in charge they will always be in contention.
Clemson Tigers
Quarterback Deshaun Watson and running back Wayne Gallman return to a team that put up 550 yards against the vaunted Tide defense in the title game. The Tigers also get back Mike Williams, who was their top wide receiver in 2014 but missed last year with injury.
Voters love when the skill players are back. Clemson did have five defensive starters leave early for the NFL draft, including shutdown corner Mackensie Alexander and stud defensive end Shaq Lawson, and also graduates leading tackler B.J. Goodson, but did fare well on defense last year with just three returning starters. The 37-17 win over Oklahoma in the CFP semifinals will keep the Tigers ahead of the Sooners in the August top 10, and will draw some votes for No.1.
Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners have 13 returning starters (plus their kicker and punter), including quarterback Baker Mayfield and running backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. Most computers will have them in the top three, with some even having them at No. 1. They have the most manageable schedule of the top three, with Houston and TCU the toughest road games, and figure to be favored in all 12 games.
Florida State Seminoles
Florida State will be stealing some first place votes from Clemson in the ACC media vote, as FSU gets the Tigers at home this year. The Seminoles are the most experienced of the top four teams, as they return 17 starters. The 2016 team is a much more veteran unit than the version than started 2015, which had zero returning starters on the offensive line and just four starters back on offense. This year the Noles return all 11 offensive starters, including Heisman Trophy-caliber running back Dalvin Cook. Only two players left early for the NFL (defensive back Jalen Ramsey and kicker Robert Aguayo), and FSU has more returning starters than it’s had in at least 20 years — from a team has lost just two regular season games in three years. They are playing their spring game in Orlando — the same stadium where they open the season vs. Ole Miss — and could be favored in every game this year.
LSU Tigers
Les Miles was on the verge of being fired late last year, but he has proven to be a Tiger with nine lives and bounced back with one of the nation’s top recruiting classes. The Tigers have 18 returning starters, which is the most in the SEC, and one of those returnees is running back and Heisman favorite Leonard Fournette. While LSU was depleted by the number
of players leaving early for the NFL in 2012 and 2013, and three left early after last season, just one starter left early after 2015 (offensive lineman Jerald Hawkins).
Ohio State Buckeyes
Much like Alabama, the Buckeyes just reload each year — their past four recruiting classes have all been in the top six of the rankings. But no team loses more players to the NFL draft, and the Buckeyes have just six starters returning. Quarterback J.T. Barrett is
back, and one quarterback may turn out to be better than the three OSU had last year. The offensive line is young, but that was the case in 2012 and 2014 as well, and Ohio State averaged 5.2 and 5.7 yards per carry, and 37.2 and 44.8 points per game, in those seasons. The Buckeyes draw Oklahoma on Sept. 17 but get Michigan at home on Nov. 26th. That will be their 12th game of the year, and they will no longer be a young team, just a very talented team with close to a full season under their belts. Also, remember that OSU beat Michigan 42-13 last year, and that was in Ann Arbor. Urban Meyer has a regular-season conference record of 31-1 in his four years at Ohio State.
Michigan Wolverines
The cupboard was not left bare by former head coach Brady Hoke, and Jim Harbaugh came in and got the most out of the talent on hand. While Michigan was blown out by Ohio State, it rebounded to leave a strong impression in voters’ minds with a 41-7 thrashing of SEC East champ Florida in the Citrus Bowl. The only other losses last season were due to a fumbled punt snap versus eventual Big Ten champ Michigan State, and a seven-point loss to Utah on the road in their season opener. The Wolverines return 13 starters and are expected to be strong on both sides of the ball. Also, Michigan will be improved at most positions and second-year head coaches generally make strides.
Stanford Cardinal
Stanford has six starters back on defense and should be one of the top units in the country. It also has one of the best offensive lines in the country and running back Christian McCaffrey, who broke Barry Sanders’ single-season all-purpose yards record and might have won the Heisman if the vote was taken after the 45-16 Rose Bowl crushing of Iowa. Stanford also beat Notre Dame in late November, which should keep the Cardinal slightly ahead of the Irish in the August poll.
Tennessee Volunteers
After starting 3-4, Tennessee won its final six to finish 9-4 and finish No. 22 in the end-of-season poll. That hardly sounds like a preseason top 10-caliber team — until you examine the four losses. The Vols dominated Oklahoma for three quarters, but blew a 17-3 fourth quarter lead and lost in overtime to a team that made the College Football Playoff. They led Florida 27-14 in the fourth quarter, but lost it late to a Gators team that would reach the SEC title game. They lost by four points to Arkansas, and then on the road they only lost to eventual national champion Alabama by five, being out-first-downed 23-21. Tennessee played a lot of freshmen the past few years, but will have to stop using the “we’re young” label as it is now a veteran group with 17 returning starters, including senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs and junior running back Jalen Hurd. The Vols will be the clear-cut favorite to win the SEC East and if the road to the title game is smooth, a win there could put them in the playoffs.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The 2015 squad was in the mix for a playoff spot late, despite losing a top defensive lineman, their top quarterback, and top two running backs for the season due to injuries. A loss to Stanford helped keep them out of the CFP, and then the Fighting Irish were handled by Ohio State (44-28) in the Fiesta Bowl. ND returns 10 starters overall, which is a step down from last year’s 16, but is a talented team with two solid quarterbacks in DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire. The team could be favored in every game this year until it travels to USC in week 12, but does face 10 bowl teams from last year. Despite the talent ahead of them on this list, I still could see the Irish making it into the top 10, and have included them here at number 11.
SOME OTHERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON
Utah
The Utes are notorious overachievers under Kyle Whittingham. Utah is facing turnover in the backfield, but they’ll be very good along both lines and in the secondary.
Wisconsin
The healthy return of Corey Clement means the ground troops will again be deep in Madison. Clement combined with the foundation of a sound defense will help the Badgers navigate a thorny schedule and compete with Iowa for the Big Ten West crown.
Houston
Tom Herman plus Greg Ward Jr. might equal 50 points per game for the Cougars, who’ll carry a tailwind into 2016. But the defense loses a ton of playmakers, which could get exposed versus Oklahoma and Louisville … and cost Houston a shot at a second straight New Year’s Six bowl berth.
Washington
In 2015, the Huskies rebuilt. In 2016, after using so many underclassmen, they’re ready to go airborne for Chris Petersen. If QB Jake Browning takes the next step as a sophomore, the defense is nasty enough to break Stanford and Oregon’s death grip on the Pac-12 North.
Iowa
After improbably starting 12-0 last season, the Hawkeyes have great preparation and development and they’ve also got a returning all-star behind center, C.J. Beathard, and a bunch of had-working former reserves itching to fill holes atop the depth chart.
TCU
After impressively milking 11 wins out of an injury-depleted squad, the Frogs are going to be much deeper on D, Gary Patterson’s specialty. Climbing up the Big 12 mountain, though, hinges on how well the team backfills all of the massive openings on the offensive side of the ball.
Oregon
The Ducks have issues in the trenches. Everywhere else, though, there’s the usual speed and skill that resides in Eugene. Newcomers Brady Hoke and Dakota Prukop have been imported to fix an awful defense and ignite the offense, respectively.
UCLA
After being besieged by injuries in 2015, the Bruins are hoping for far fewer casualties this fall. They’re also hoping that Josh Rosen can take the next big stride toward being one of college football’s premier young quarterbacks.
Louisville
After a brief retooling last year, the Cards could be the ACC’s biggest surprise of 2016. Electrifying QB Lamar Jackson is no longer a wide-eyed rookie, the defense will be suffocating and the entire program is feeling bullish after closing 2015 on a 6-1 run.
North Carolina
The Tar Heels are out to prove 2015 was no fluke. And they’ve got the talent to back up their goals. In fact, if Mitch Trubisky can take the baton from Marquise Williams at quarterback, Carolina can be every bit as successful as it was last year.
USC
Clay Helton gets his first chance to disprove the notion that Troy could have been pickier when choosing a permanent head coach. As usual, the Trojans have no shortages of talent, though a new quarterback must be broken in, and the D-line remains a serious question mark.
Michigan State
Mark Dantonio and his staff know how to build, a good thing considering the makeover being done on both sides of the ball. The recent history of the Spartans says this team will once again overachieve by making sure last year’s backups are ready to roll in 2016.
Georgia
It’s going to be a transition year in Athens, with Kirby Smart taking over as head coach and true freshman Jacob Eason—possibly—starting at quarterback. Still, there’s always talent at Georgia. And the formula of Smart’s defensive prowess and a backfield of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will keep the Dawgs in the SEC East hunt.
Ole Miss
Everyone is about to learn the limits of Chad Kelly’s potential. He’s the SEC premier quarterback, but his supporting cast won’t be what it was in 2015, so there’s more weight to carry. While Hugh Freeze keeps restocking the shelves, the Rebs are going to be a lot younger and inexperienced this fall.
Baylor
Their playmaking talent places them here but the offseason turmoil including a coaching change makes them a big question mark heading into their season. The Bears might need to score more points this season to offset a defense hit hard by graduation. Yeah, that’s rarely a worry for Art Briles, who has two quality hurlers in the stable. Beyond the D, Baylor must also retool
