My PR Line was GA State -2
Is there a way to edit my initial post to have all plays listed within one post or do I just need to post them each individually. From a PR standpoint I'm done with CUSA, SBC, MWC and almost half of the MAC. That only leaves like 3 lines to be made and GA St is the only one where I found value.
Is there a way to edit my initial post to have all plays listed within one post or do I just need to post them each individually. From a PR standpoint I'm done with CUSA, SBC, MWC and almost half of the MAC. That only leaves like 3 lines to be made and GA St is the only one where I found value.
Thanks for the kind words. My PR process is below. This is my 4th year doing PRs for individual FBS teams. I tried FCS teams last year but it is wayyyy too time consuming for the returns and very difficult to add that many additional box score reviews on Sunday.
I mostly use Bill Connelly team previews/stats to assist with my PRs. I do the PRs and write my own blurb about every team. I note percentage of returning production on offense/defense and TO margin for previous year. I make notes regarding offensive and defensive identities. I specifically include pace and percent run/pass. Of course I also note for and try to adjust for any coaching changes. I then go through position by position. My maximum PR is 100 points. I break it down as follows: QB - 15, RB - 10, WR - 10, OL -15, DL - 15, LB - 10, DB - 10, Coaching - 10, STs - 5.
Perhaps I'm giving too much to the offensive side of the ball and maybe that's something I need to adjust in how I do my PRs. I will say I haven't noticed an incredible shift to having offensive teams rated significantly higher in my PRs but it's something I need to look deeper into.
My spreadsheet has End of 2015 PR, Preseason 2016 PR and then I will adjust them on a weekly basis based on box score review and injury. I have found it key to not overreact to one game
Twitter is also essential as I keep a CFB twitter list that helps me find out any injury/suspension information. This is particularly helpful in the offseason
DonBest injury page is absolutely a must review as the season approaches and through the week before the games. It's the best injury list I've found by far.
GSU vs Ball St: I have GSU -2 on a neutral field. I realize that playing it early can be affected by kids doing stupid stuff during the summer. However the Ball St players have the same chance of doing something dumb as the GSU players. Reasons I like the play: Lembo left Ball St and their new HC is very inexperienced in terms of the college game. I think Lembo was a solid coach and there will be an adjustment period here for Ball St. They do return a fair amount but all of those players will be learning new systems. Concern with GSU is that they lose Arbuckle and if he's irreplaceable then the bet could be in trouble. At the end of last year I would have had GSU -5 on a neutral so I have Ball St improving but I don't have them improving to the point that they would be -6.5 on a neutral field which is basically what a line of GSU -3.5 suggests. That would be an 11.5 adjustment in the PR and I just don't see that much or anything close to it. Getting the hook here was crucial as well and part of the reason I wanted to jump on the line early. Barring a major injury/suspension I don't think I'll get a better line than Georgia St +3.5
I mostly use Bill Connelly team previews/stats to assist with my PRs. I do the PRs and write my own blurb about every team. I note percentage of returning production on offense/defense and TO margin for previous year. I make notes regarding offensive and defensive identities. I specifically include pace and percent run/pass. Of course I also note for and try to adjust for any coaching changes. I then go through position by position. My maximum PR is 100 points. I break it down as follows: QB - 15, RB - 10, WR - 10, OL -15, DL - 15, LB - 10, DB - 10, Coaching - 10, STs - 5.
Perhaps I'm giving too much to the offensive side of the ball and maybe that's something I need to adjust in how I do my PRs. I will say I haven't noticed an incredible shift to having offensive teams rated significantly higher in my PRs but it's something I need to look deeper into.
My spreadsheet has End of 2015 PR, Preseason 2016 PR and then I will adjust them on a weekly basis based on box score review and injury. I have found it key to not overreact to one game
Twitter is also essential as I keep a CFB twitter list that helps me find out any injury/suspension information. This is particularly helpful in the offseason
DonBest injury page is absolutely a must review as the season approaches and through the week before the games. It's the best injury list I've found by far.
GSU vs Ball St: I have GSU -2 on a neutral field. I realize that playing it early can be affected by kids doing stupid stuff during the summer. However the Ball St players have the same chance of doing something dumb as the GSU players. Reasons I like the play: Lembo left Ball St and their new HC is very inexperienced in terms of the college game. I think Lembo was a solid coach and there will be an adjustment period here for Ball St. They do return a fair amount but all of those players will be learning new systems. Concern with GSU is that they lose Arbuckle and if he's irreplaceable then the bet could be in trouble. At the end of last year I would have had GSU -5 on a neutral so I have Ball St improving but I don't have them improving to the point that they would be -6.5 on a neutral field which is basically what a line of GSU -3.5 suggests. That would be an 11.5 adjustment in the PR and I just don't see that much or anything close to it. Getting the hook here was crucial as well and part of the reason I wanted to jump on the line early. Barring a major injury/suspension I don't think I'll get a better line than Georgia St +3.5
Not sure how many of you guys look at the 5Dimes FCS stuff or even find it worth your time with the small limits but Grambling -45 should be pretty easy winner. VU Lynchburg only played 5 games last year due to not really fielding a complete team. I honestly believe you are only slightly less likely to get your money returned b/c of a forfeit than you are for Grambling to not cover 45.
Here's everything I have locked in so far:
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
FCS:
Grambling St -45
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
FCS:
Grambling St -45
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
Adding:
Fordham +30 at Navy
Army +12 at Navy future
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
FCS:
Grambling St -45
Fordham +30
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Army +12 at Navy
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
Fordham +30 at Navy
Army +12 at Navy future
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
FCS:
Grambling St -45
Fordham +30
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Army +12 at Navy
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
Adding:
Louisville -38.5 vs Charlotte...think it closes closer to 42. My PRs don't exactly line up to make it a play but Charlotte lost to KY last year by 48 while getting outgained by 311 yards. Though they outgained Temple they were outgained by MTSU by 440 yards, SoMiss by 223 yards and Marshall by 323 yards so teams that could put up points certainly destroyed them. Petrino won't have a problem running it up and he needs to get his boys in sync early as they play FSU and Clemson in the first 5 weeks. I think you may see the starters go fairly deep here and even if not both Bonnafon and Bolin are capable of coming in and putting up points
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
Louisville -38.5
FCS:
Grambling St -45
Fordham +30
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Army +12 at Navy
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
Louisville -38.5 vs Charlotte...think it closes closer to 42. My PRs don't exactly line up to make it a play but Charlotte lost to KY last year by 48 while getting outgained by 311 yards. Though they outgained Temple they were outgained by MTSU by 440 yards, SoMiss by 223 yards and Marshall by 323 yards so teams that could put up points certainly destroyed them. Petrino won't have a problem running it up and he needs to get his boys in sync early as they play FSU and Clemson in the first 5 weeks. I think you may see the starters go fairly deep here and even if not both Bonnafon and Bolin are capable of coming in and putting up points
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
Louisville -38.5
FCS:
Grambling St -45
Fordham +30
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Army +12 at Navy
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
Adding:
EMU -37 vs Miss Valley St - not a whole lot to say other than MVSU is simply awful and when I truly think a team can win by 55+ then I have to lay the number here even if it is with another awful team
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
Louisville -38.5
FCS (any game including an FCS team):
Grambling St -45
Fordham +30
EMU -37
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Army +12 at Navy
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
EMU -37 vs Miss Valley St - not a whole lot to say other than MVSU is simply awful and when I truly think a team can win by 55+ then I have to lay the number here even if it is with another awful team
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
Louisville -38.5
FCS (any game including an FCS team):
Grambling St -45
Fordham +30
EMU -37
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Army +12 at Navy
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
Adding:
Kennesaw St -22 vs ETSU - made it 34 so a must play based on numbers. Both teams return almost everyone from LY so not a whole lot of adjustments were required
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
Louisville -38.5
FCS (any game including an FCS team):
Grambling St -45
Fordham +30
EMU -37
Kennesaw St -22
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Army +12 at Navy
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
Kennesaw St -22 vs ETSU - made it 34 so a must play based on numbers. Both teams return almost everyone from LY so not a whole lot of adjustments were required
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
Louisville -38.5
FCS (any game including an FCS team):
Grambling St -45
Fordham +30
EMU -37
Kennesaw St -22
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Army +12 at Navy
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
Adding:
Penn St -18.5 vs Kent St - made the line 24 myself and don't see how Kent scores here. PSU offense will likely struggle but they should have great field position all game.
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
Louisville -38.5
Penn St -18.5
FCS (any game including an FCS team):
Grambling St -45
Fordham +30
EMU -37
Kennesaw St -22
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Army +12 at Navy
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
Penn St -18.5 vs Kent St - made the line 24 myself and don't see how Kent scores here. PSU offense will likely struggle but they should have great field position all game.
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
Louisville -38.5
Penn St -18.5
FCS (any game including an FCS team):
Grambling St -45
Fordham +30
EMU -37
Kennesaw St -22
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Army +12 at Navy
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
Adding:
Rutgers +25 at Washington - don't love it but I made the line +20 so I feel pretty obligated to trust my numbers and play it.
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
Louisville -38.5
Penn St -18.5
Rutgers +25
FCS (any game including an FCS team):
Grambling St -45
Fordham +30
EMU -37
Kennesaw St -22
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Army +12 at Navy
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
Rutgers +25 at Washington - don't love it but I made the line +20 so I feel pretty obligated to trust my numbers and play it.
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
Louisville -38.5
Penn St -18.5
Rutgers +25
FCS (any game including an FCS team):
Grambling St -45
Fordham +30
EMU -37
Kennesaw St -22
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Army +12 at Navy
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
I'm leaning the other way with UW/Rutgers. Although I have to admit I got it at UW -20.5. Under 3 td's was the key for me. If it had been more than that I would have laid off the game. This is some pretty heavy road travel for Chris Ash, who is coaching Rutgers for the first game ever as a head coach. It's always a concern to me to bet on a team going on the road against a top 10 defense that can potentially shut you out. UW is loaded with talent this year on that side of the ball. They were ranked 13th in scoring defense last year in a very offensive minded league. Plus it's basically a no look ahead game for UW with just Idaho the next week. Rutgers will need to bring their best stuff because I think UW will be locked and loaded for a shutout...But even at a good line of -20.5, I still made this just a small bet. Mainly because I'm not 100% confident in UW's offense.
Adding:
Vanderbilt -3 vs South Carolina - PRs make it 8.5 and the way I look at it, the offenses project similarly but Vandy should have a significantly better defense. The talent level isn't tremendously different
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
Louisville -38.5
Penn St -18.5
Rutgers +25
Vanderbilt -3
FCS (any game including an FCS team):
Grambling St -45
Fordham +30
EMU -37
Kennesaw St -22
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Army +12 at Navy
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
Vanderbilt -3 vs South Carolina - PRs make it 8.5 and the way I look at it, the offenses project similarly but Vandy should have a significantly better defense. The talent level isn't tremendously different
FBS:
Georgia St +3.5
San Jose St +6
Louisville -38.5
Penn St -18.5
Rutgers +25
Vanderbilt -3
FCS (any game including an FCS team):
Grambling St -45
Fordham +30
EMU -37
Kennesaw St -22
Futures:
BYU +7.5 at Utah
Notre Dame +1 vs Stanford
Washington +4.5 vs Oregon (half bet)
BYU -1.5 vs Utah St (not sure why this was even a line)
Army +12 at Navy
Temple +700 to win AAC (0.30 risk)
VT +370 to win Coastal (0.66 risk)
Minny +1300 to win Big10 West (0.25 risk)
