How to bet the 2016 Stanley Cup finals
Ben ArledgeESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The NHL playoffs have surprised many hockey fans this year. The Stanley Cup odds at the beginning of the playoffs had the Pittsburgh Penguins at 8-to-1 and the San Jose Sharks at 18-to-1, while favorites like the Washington Capitals (3-to-1), Los Angeles Kings (6-to-1), and Chicago Blackhawks (7-to-1) didn't make it past the second round.
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With their Game 7 victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, the Penguins open the finals as the odds-on favorite, coming in at -150. The Sharks, however, are the stronger bet at +130 -- especially in a series that will be very even, and might even favor San Jose on paper, despite their playing the role of underdog in Vegas.
The Sharks led all playoff teams with 3.5 goals per game this postseason, edging out the Penguins who scored at a 3.22/game rate. Joe Pavelski has 13 playoff goals to lead the NHL. (Pittsburgh's Phil Kessel's 9 ties him for third). What's more, Logan Couture paces the field with 24 points, and Pavelski's 22 andBrent Burns' 20 are second and third.
That's three Sharks at the top of the board. This offense has plenty of fire power to go punch-for-punch with Pittsburgh's deadly trio of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kessel, even though the Sharks have fired just 28 shots per game over their 18 postseason contests (Pittsburgh is getting 35.1 on goal per game). On the man advantage, the Sharks have converted 27 percent of their power play opportunities this postseason, while Pittsburgh comes in at 23.6 percent.
In goal, it's essentially a wash. Martin Jones' .919 save percentage is slightly worse than Matt Murray's .924, but Jones has played more than two hundred more minutes this postseason, registers a lower goals against average and has three playoff shutouts. According to War-On-Ice.com, their adjusted even strength save percentage is almost identical (.935 versus .934, advantage Murray).
Defensively, the Sharks' 2.28 goals against per game beats the Penguins' 2.39 average; it certainly helps that the Western Conference rep is allowing just 27.1 shots against per game, compared to the Penguins' 29.7. Kris Letang has played almost 29 minutes a night for the Pens this postseason, but the Sharks' defense runs deeper with Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, and Paul Martin all skating north of 22 minutes per game. On the penalty kill, Pittsburgh has the advantage, snubbing 83.6 percent of all chances, while San Jose sits at 80.4 percent.
In the field of advanced numbers, Pittsburgh's SAT percentage (shot attempts for versus shot attempts against) of 50.4 is barely better than San Jose's 49.3 percent -- but in close games, the Sharks actually have the advantage with a 53.3 percent rate versus the Penguins' 52.9 percent. Blocked shots, shooting percentage, hits, and takeaways are all on San Jose's side, while the Penguins have fewer giveaways and are better at the faceoff dot.
Lastly, playoff experience is pretty even, with the Sharks just barely besting the Penguins in playoff games per roster, 896 to 861.
This will certainly be a close series (and I expect it to go six or seven games), but the Sharks aren't getting the respect that they have demanded through their postseason run. It's time to take this team seriously.
I like San Jose to keep the Stanley Cup in the Western Conference, and with the tasty underdog +130 odds that Vegas is giving them, the Sharks become the no-brainer smart bet for the Stanley Cup finals.
ESPN Chalk Pick: Sharks to win (+130)
Ben ArledgeESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The NHL playoffs have surprised many hockey fans this year. The Stanley Cup odds at the beginning of the playoffs had the Pittsburgh Penguins at 8-to-1 and the San Jose Sharks at 18-to-1, while favorites like the Washington Capitals (3-to-1), Los Angeles Kings (6-to-1), and Chicago Blackhawks (7-to-1) didn't make it past the second round.
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With their Game 7 victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, the Penguins open the finals as the odds-on favorite, coming in at -150. The Sharks, however, are the stronger bet at +130 -- especially in a series that will be very even, and might even favor San Jose on paper, despite their playing the role of underdog in Vegas.
The Sharks led all playoff teams with 3.5 goals per game this postseason, edging out the Penguins who scored at a 3.22/game rate. Joe Pavelski has 13 playoff goals to lead the NHL. (Pittsburgh's Phil Kessel's 9 ties him for third). What's more, Logan Couture paces the field with 24 points, and Pavelski's 22 andBrent Burns' 20 are second and third.
That's three Sharks at the top of the board. This offense has plenty of fire power to go punch-for-punch with Pittsburgh's deadly trio of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kessel, even though the Sharks have fired just 28 shots per game over their 18 postseason contests (Pittsburgh is getting 35.1 on goal per game). On the man advantage, the Sharks have converted 27 percent of their power play opportunities this postseason, while Pittsburgh comes in at 23.6 percent.
In goal, it's essentially a wash. Martin Jones' .919 save percentage is slightly worse than Matt Murray's .924, but Jones has played more than two hundred more minutes this postseason, registers a lower goals against average and has three playoff shutouts. According to War-On-Ice.com, their adjusted even strength save percentage is almost identical (.935 versus .934, advantage Murray).
Defensively, the Sharks' 2.28 goals against per game beats the Penguins' 2.39 average; it certainly helps that the Western Conference rep is allowing just 27.1 shots against per game, compared to the Penguins' 29.7. Kris Letang has played almost 29 minutes a night for the Pens this postseason, but the Sharks' defense runs deeper with Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, and Paul Martin all skating north of 22 minutes per game. On the penalty kill, Pittsburgh has the advantage, snubbing 83.6 percent of all chances, while San Jose sits at 80.4 percent.
In the field of advanced numbers, Pittsburgh's SAT percentage (shot attempts for versus shot attempts against) of 50.4 is barely better than San Jose's 49.3 percent -- but in close games, the Sharks actually have the advantage with a 53.3 percent rate versus the Penguins' 52.9 percent. Blocked shots, shooting percentage, hits, and takeaways are all on San Jose's side, while the Penguins have fewer giveaways and are better at the faceoff dot.
Lastly, playoff experience is pretty even, with the Sharks just barely besting the Penguins in playoff games per roster, 896 to 861.
This will certainly be a close series (and I expect it to go six or seven games), but the Sharks aren't getting the respect that they have demanded through their postseason run. It's time to take this team seriously.
I like San Jose to keep the Stanley Cup in the Western Conference, and with the tasty underdog +130 odds that Vegas is giving them, the Sharks become the no-brainer smart bet for the Stanley Cup finals.
ESPN Chalk Pick: Sharks to win (+130)
