A 'jump-shooting team' will win NBA Finals; but which one?
Kevin PeltonESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
I'll tell you which team will win the NBA Finals -- very likely -- if you just tell me one simple piece of information:<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Who's going to shoot better from 3-point range?
As the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors get set to tip off Game 1 on Thursday (9 p.m. ET, ABC/WatchESPN), a key fact from recent Finals history will loom large.
Dating back to 2001, 14 of the past 15 Finals have been won by the team with the better 3-point percentage. The Los Angeles Lakers over the Boston Celtics in 2010 were the one exception.
Back in the 1990s, the Chicago Bulls could win six championships with relatively poor 3-point shooting. (The Bulls shot a better 3-point percentage in just three of those Finals.)
But as the NBA has increasingly made use of the 3-pointer as a weapon, the stretch of court beyond the arc has become a key battleground. And few teams make better use of it than the Cavaliers and Warriors.
Cavs have outshot Warriors in the playoffs
When these teams matched up in the NBA Finals last June, Golden State gained a huge advantage beyond the arc despite shooting 36.0 percent on 3s, relatively poor by the Warriors' high standards. A short-handed Cleveland squad mustered just 29.3 percent shooting from downtown.
The Cavaliers are back with reinforcements: healthy stars Kyrie Irving andKevin Love plus new addition Channing Frye, all dangerous 3-point threats.
So, remarkably, Cleveland has actually done the Splash Brothers & Co. one better in terms of 3-point shooting this postseason. The Cavaliers smashed the record for 3-pointers per game made leading up to the Finals (among teams that reached the Finals) -- as did the Warriors, surpassing their own mark from last season.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
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</tbody></aside>Sorry, Charles Barkley: a "jump-shooting team" is going to win the title. The question is which one.
Intriguingly, the results to date in the playoffs may not tell us much about the 3-point battle in this series. There's almost no relationship between the percentage teams have shot leading up to the Finals and what they've shot once there.
Regular-season 3-point shooting is a better predictor -- good news for Golden State, which shot 41.6 percent on 3s this year compared to Cleveland's 36.3 percent -- but randomness dominates either factor over a seven-game series.
In other words, we don't know which team will shoot better in the postseason based on past results. But we're pretty sure 3-point percentage will be an X factor.
Cavaliers enter Finals hot
In large part because of the hot shooting, Cleveland has been outstanding in the postseason. Since the NBA playoffs expanded to 16 teams in 1984, the Cavaliers' plus-12.6 point differential en route to the Finals ranks fifth.
And while Cleveland didn't face an elite opponent like the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Eastern Conference playoffs, the Cavaliers' playoff opposition was actually relatively difficult because their first-round matchup against a 44-win Detroit Pistons team wasn't a gimme. (The Pistons won as many games as the Portland Trail Blazers, the Warriors' opponent in the second round.)
When playoff net rating is adjusted for the regular-season net rating of opponents, weighted by games played in each round, Cleveland moves up to the third-best run to the Finals in the 16-team era, trailing the 2001 L.A. Lakers (who went 11-0 against West foes) and the 72-10 1996 Chicago Bulls.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
Kevin PeltonESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
I'll tell you which team will win the NBA Finals -- very likely -- if you just tell me one simple piece of information:<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Who's going to shoot better from 3-point range?
As the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors get set to tip off Game 1 on Thursday (9 p.m. ET, ABC/WatchESPN), a key fact from recent Finals history will loom large.
Dating back to 2001, 14 of the past 15 Finals have been won by the team with the better 3-point percentage. The Los Angeles Lakers over the Boston Celtics in 2010 were the one exception.
Back in the 1990s, the Chicago Bulls could win six championships with relatively poor 3-point shooting. (The Bulls shot a better 3-point percentage in just three of those Finals.)
But as the NBA has increasingly made use of the 3-pointer as a weapon, the stretch of court beyond the arc has become a key battleground. And few teams make better use of it than the Cavaliers and Warriors.
Cavs have outshot Warriors in the playoffs
When these teams matched up in the NBA Finals last June, Golden State gained a huge advantage beyond the arc despite shooting 36.0 percent on 3s, relatively poor by the Warriors' high standards. A short-handed Cleveland squad mustered just 29.3 percent shooting from downtown.
The Cavaliers are back with reinforcements: healthy stars Kyrie Irving andKevin Love plus new addition Channing Frye, all dangerous 3-point threats.
So, remarkably, Cleveland has actually done the Splash Brothers & Co. one better in terms of 3-point shooting this postseason. The Cavaliers smashed the record for 3-pointers per game made leading up to the Finals (among teams that reached the Finals) -- as did the Warriors, surpassing their own mark from last season.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
TEAM | YEAR | 3P/G | 3P% |
---|---|---|---|
CLE | 2016 | 14.4 | .434 |
GSW | 2016 | 12.5 | .402 |
GSW | 2015 | 11.5 | .380 |
CLE | 2015 | 11.4 | .359 |
MIA | 2014 | 9.3 | .395 |
DAL | 2011 | 8.9 | .388 |
ORL | 2009 | 8.6 | .367 |
HOU | 1995 | 8.4 | .389 |
SAS | 2014 | 8.2 | .392 |
ORL | 1995 | 8.1 | .413 |
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Intriguingly, the results to date in the playoffs may not tell us much about the 3-point battle in this series. There's almost no relationship between the percentage teams have shot leading up to the Finals and what they've shot once there.
Regular-season 3-point shooting is a better predictor -- good news for Golden State, which shot 41.6 percent on 3s this year compared to Cleveland's 36.3 percent -- but randomness dominates either factor over a seven-game series.
In other words, we don't know which team will shoot better in the postseason based on past results. But we're pretty sure 3-point percentage will be an X factor.
Cavaliers enter Finals hot
In large part because of the hot shooting, Cleveland has been outstanding in the postseason. Since the NBA playoffs expanded to 16 teams in 1984, the Cavaliers' plus-12.6 point differential en route to the Finals ranks fifth.
And while Cleveland didn't face an elite opponent like the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Eastern Conference playoffs, the Cavaliers' playoff opposition was actually relatively difficult because their first-round matchup against a 44-win Detroit Pistons team wasn't a gimme. (The Pistons won as many games as the Portland Trail Blazers, the Warriors' opponent in the second round.)
When playoff net rating is adjusted for the regular-season net rating of opponents, weighted by games played in each round, Cleveland moves up to the third-best run to the Finals in the 16-team era, trailing the 2001 L.A. Lakers (who went 11-0 against West foes) and the 72-10 1996 Chicago Bulls.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
TEAM | YEAR | RATING | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|
LAL | 2001 | 20.8 | W |
CHI | 1996 | 17.6 | W |
CLE | 2016 | 16.0 | ? |
LAL | 1987 | 14.7 | W |
LAL | 1985 | 14.7 | W |
BOS | 1986 | 14.5 | W |
Since playoffs expanded to 16 teams in 1984 |