[h=1]How to bet the 2016 NBA Finals[/h]
For one, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Lovemissed most of the championship series last year, so it's not just James doing it on his own. In addition,Channing Frye wasn't part of this team during the regular-season meetings, and he has made a world of difference, as he is 26-of-45 (57.8 percent) on 3-pointers this postseason and has been able to stretch the floor. He has really opened up the offense for Cleveland, and James is scoring 69 percent of his points in the paint this postseason, unlike last year's Finals, when he was taking a lot more jump shots, and that's going to be a huge adjustment for the Warriors to make from what they're used to seeing from James and the Cavaliers.
While Rynning has this game in line with the market, my power ratings have the Cavaliers narrowing the gap to where I don't think this line should be any higher than 3.5 or 4 points at most, even with the Warriors' home-court advantage. As for the over/under, I see people jumping on the over (probably because this number is 10 points lower than most of the Warriors' recent games), but I don't think it's been adjusted low enough, so there's still a little value on the under.
However, I like the Cleveland side better (and will probably pass on the under as I don't want to find myself cheering against the Cavs hitting 3-pointers).
Game 1 picks: Cavaliers +5.5, lean to under 210.5.
- Dave Tuley
- Erin Rynning
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The NBA Finals begin on Thursday (9 p.m. ET, ABC) and feature a rematch of last year's championship series, the matchup everyone was hoping to see: the Golden State Warriors vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers.
In this NBA Finals Betting Guide with Erin Rynning, we're going to look at how the playoffs have progressed so far (from a betting perspective) and then we'll look at the series odds and Game 1. We'll be back before each game to give our updated thoughts and betting strategies for the series.
Despite the Warriors getting a scare and having to rally from a 3-games-to-1 deficit against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference finals, the NBA playoffs have been very chalky this postseason. There have been only two series upsets (out of the first 14 series) with the Portland Trail Blazersousting the injury-depleted Los Angeles Clippers in the first round and the Thunder knocking off the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference semifinals.
Favorites and unders have dominated in individual games as well, as favorites are 46-32-1 against the spread (59 percent) heading into the NBA Finals, and unders are 48-31 (60.8 percent). As for the two surviving teams, their playoff betting numbers are below.
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After the Warriors completed their rally and disposed of the Thunder on Monday night, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook made the Warriors a -185 series favorite with the Cavaliers at +165. Several offshore books opened with the Warriors around -230, and it took the Westgate just 15 minutes to adjust its odds to -210/+180. As of early Wednesday morning, that's pretty close to the consensus series price, as the books have found the middle ground.
As for Game 1 on Thursday night, that has been pretty solid, with the Warriors as 5.5-point home favorites. The over/under opened at 210 at the majority of sports books (10 of Nevada's 14 books on the Don Best odds screen), with the Westgate going with 209.5 and the MGM Grand a tad lower at 209, but the consensus is now up to 210.5.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"></aside>The Warriors were 4-2 straight up/against the spread in last year's NBA Finals after splitting the regular-season meetings, so they're 6-4 ATS against the Cavaliers over the last two years. The over/unders were split 1-1 this season, with the unders going 2-0 last season and 3-2-1 in last year's Finals; unders are 6-3-1 in those 10 meetings.DATE LINES SCORE BETTING RESULT Dec. 25 Warriors -7, o/u 207 Warriors 89, Cavaliers 83 Cavaliers/Under Jan. 18 Cavaliers -3.5, o/u 210 Warriors 132, Cavaliers 98 Warriors/Over
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[h=3]Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors[/h]Westgate series price: Warriors -210/Cavaliers +180
Westgate Game 1 lines: Warriors -5.5; over/under 210.5
PickCenter intel
[h=2]Betting the "odds to win series"[/h]As mentioned above, the series prices have settled around Warriors -210/Cavaliers +180. If we were to convert that to a no-vig price of -195/+195, that puts the chances for the two teams at Warriors 66.1 percent and Cavaliers 33.9 percent. For comparison's sake, ESPN's Basketball Power Index gives the Warriors a 75 percent chance to win the series. So if you have faith in the BPI, there is a little value in the Warriors' series price (even at -210, as you'd need 67.7 percent to break even).
Note: Some people like to try to bet the series winner via the MVP odds. The Westgate doesn't have those for this series, but sportsbook.ag has Stephen Curry as the 10-13 favorite (-130 as a money line) and has LeBron James at 2-1. Those are better than the odds being offered for their teams, so a lot of people will be tempted to bet those instead. However, let the bettor beware: When the Warriors won last year, the MVP was Andre Iguodala, not Curry.
[h=2]Betting the individual games[/h]Even if you don't bet the series -- and a lot of people will pass when they realize the best prices of Warriors -185 or Cavaliers +195 are no longer available -- there are plenty of betting opportunities on a game-by-game basis. Here are our takes on Thursday night's Game 1.
Rynning: I have obvious concerns about the Warriors' situation after their epic battle with the Thunder in the Western Conference finals. However, reaching such profound heights should actually pay benefits in the NBA Finals.
The Western playoffs were clearly played at a much higher level than their Eastern counterparts, and I wouldn't be surprised if it takes a game for the Cavaliers to adjust to playing at the level the Warriors have had to be at throughout the playoffs. Another concern is that the Thunder brought tricky matchups to give the Warriors trouble, but the Cavaliers just don't have the personnel to adopt a similar strategy. This series presents much better matchups for the Warriors.
The key in this series should be the Warriors reaching a high level of defense that the Cavaliers simply haven't played against. Meanwhile, Cleveland continues to lack a strong defense. The Raptors garnered many open looks in the Eastern Conference finals, and the Warriors have the offensive playmakers to knock down those shots. My numbers do correlate directly with the market in this first contest, but I'm comfortable giving a strong Game 1 lean to the Warriors due to their matchup advantages.
Game 1 pick: Lean to Warriors -5.5.
Tuley: ER and I differ here, as I'm taking Cleveland right off the bat.
In their last two series coming off added rest, the Cavaliers won and covered in their Game 1s against the Hawks and Raptors. Now, I know some people will point out that the Cavs didn't cover in their opening-round Game 1 against the Pistons, but that was on shorter rest after the regular season. I'm expecting LeBron James & Co. to come out fresh from the starting gate (note: James scored 44 in Game 1 of last year's Finals) and it wouldn't be too surprising if the Warriors have a bit of a hangover from their tough seven-game series. I'm aware that the Warriors have had the Cavaliers' number the past two years, including in the Finals last season, but this is a different team.
For one, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Lovemissed most of the championship series last year, so it's not just James doing it on his own. In addition,Channing Frye wasn't part of this team during the regular-season meetings, and he has made a world of difference, as he is 26-of-45 (57.8 percent) on 3-pointers this postseason and has been able to stretch the floor. He has really opened up the offense for Cleveland, and James is scoring 69 percent of his points in the paint this postseason, unlike last year's Finals, when he was taking a lot more jump shots, and that's going to be a huge adjustment for the Warriors to make from what they're used to seeing from James and the Cavaliers.
While Rynning has this game in line with the market, my power ratings have the Cavaliers narrowing the gap to where I don't think this line should be any higher than 3.5 or 4 points at most, even with the Warriors' home-court advantage. As for the over/under, I see people jumping on the over (probably because this number is 10 points lower than most of the Warriors' recent games), but I don't think it's been adjusted low enough, so there's still a little value on the under.
However, I like the Cleveland side better (and will probably pass on the under as I don't want to find myself cheering against the Cavs hitting 3-pointers).
Game 1 picks: Cavaliers +5.5, lean to under 210.5.
