[h=1]Betting UFC 199: Rockhold-Bisping[/h]Reed KuhnSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
It's not even the highest profile UFC event of the summer, but this weekend at UFC 199 there will be two title rematches between bitter rivals, and several past and potential contenders filling out the card. Both incumbent champions, Luke Rockhold and Dominick Cruz, are heavily favored over their challengers, but the numbers show very different styles that could reveal where the betting value lies.
Let's first consider the overall fighting effectiveness of the full card and note that both champions take very little damage in their fights, though Rockhold is better at delivering it than Cruz. Meanwhile, the two featherweights facing off before the championship bouts, Max Holloway and Ricardo Lamas, have extremely different fighting profiles.
With two fights having such extreme odds, we'll also consider some totals and props angles as well as assessing whether the favorites are so deserving.
[h=2]Featherweight Matchup: No. 4 Max Holloway (-325) vs No. 5 Ricardo Lamas (+260)[/h]
Max Holloway has been the most prolific fighter for his age in UFC history, being the youngest to reach 10 fights on MMA's biggest stage, and with no signs of slowing down. He's now making his 15th UFC appearance and he's just 24 years old. His last loss was against Conor McGregor back in 2013, and he's managed to pack in eight consecutive wins since. Lamas, on the other hand, is older and perhaps has more big-stage experience, having already competed for a UFC title. His only UFC losses have come against former champion Jose Aldoand perennial contender Chad Lamas.
Holloway's standup striking is superior, but his ground game is at risk if Lamas uses a wrestling heavy approach. Lamas attempts many more takedowns and is capable of stifling the younger striker to steal a round or two. But if they go toe-to-toe, Holloway should be busier, more accurate, and more resilient to damage. The styles here diverge, so if Holloway makes it a high-paced fight, he'll have the advantage, while Lamas will be looking to slow things down and make it a grinder.
Insider Recommends: Holloway's youthfulness and performance-based edges support him as a deserving favorite. He has the tools to outpoint Lamas, and potentially threaten the 24-year old with strikes. But the lines have already pushed Holloway's price way up since opening, diminishing much of that value, and chasing him any further is risky. He may still be parlay fodder for now, but if Lamas ends up higher than plus-300, the value will swing back towards the underdog.
[h=2]Bantamweight Championship Matchup: Champion Dominick Cruz (-500) vs No. 2 Urijah Faber (+400)[/h]
They say "defense wins championships," and Dominick Cruz is the hardest to hit fighter in Bantamweight history. But his elusiveness and high pace of output comes at a cost, and that's his offensive weaponry. His strike accuracy is poor and his power is not a threat. Still, his skills as a technician and strike-and-fade tactics have stymied all opponents in the UFC, including the impressive former champion TJ Dillashaw.
But Faber has faced Cruz twice already, and it's notable that his counter-strike timing improved throughout their last five-round fight. While Cruz is clearly the busier fighter, Faber is the greater threat for a finish. Still, Cruz has never looked better and his wrestling is of the rare caliber to compete with Faber's. Furthermore, the "California Kid" is now 37 years old, so it's likely that if this goes the distance, it will be Cruz who does enough each round to get his hand raised.
Insider Recommends: It's a trilogy grudge match, and overall numbers suggest Cruz can win round-to-round thanks to his wrestling base and superior standup output. But he's also facing an explosive striker for the third time, and Faber knows this matchup is all about timing the right punch. Cruz is most likely to win by decision, a prop that runs just minus-160. The over 4.5 rounds is also parlay fodder at minus-260, assuming neither man goes down easy in a back and forth battle. But the big hedge hear has to be Faber "inside the distance" at plus-740. Risking any amount on Cruz or even the Over should allocate a small share on Faber's prop, which could pay out big if he times the right counter at some point in five rounds.
[h=2]Middleweight Championship: Champion Luke Rockhold (-800) vs No. 4 Michael Bisping (+550)[/h]
Luke Rockhold has been on a tear through the division's best, and he's already faced some of the top contenders when he was still an up and comer in Strikeforce. That's because his ground game is dominant, while his rangy style of kickboxing makes for a dual threat. While striking he puts on a high pace and threatens with powerful kicks, which may lower his accuracy rating but supports his high knockdown rate. It was one of these head kicks that set up his submission finish of Michael Bisping in their first fight.
Meanwhile, the career title-bubble fighter Bisping is riding high having just pulled off his best performance in a gritty upset win over former championAnderson Silva. Bisping has some of the best cardio in the game, and maintains a high pace of output from bell to bell for as many rounds as it takes. But keep in mind this most recent win is against a post-title era Silva, 40 years old at the time of the fight, while Rockhold is now in his prime. Staying busy and out-pointing Rockhold won't be a likely here, and Rockhold not only has a big ground advantage, but is also well favored in power and durability while standing. All these factors combine to support Rockhold as the heavy favorite.
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</article>Insider Recommends: If they stand and trade, Rockhold is very likely to do damage early, and yet if Bisping tries to get to the ground, he'll be in another mismatch against Rockhold's advanced "Luke-jitsu" submission game. The odds for Rockhold are understandably lofty, and even a prop bet for a Rockhold "inside the distance" will run a steep minus-440. Still, a Rockhold finish is the best parlay fodder you'll get on the card, while the most affordable angle on this matchup is the Under 1.5 rounds at just minus-125. Avoid choosing between a TKO and submission finish, as Rockhold will take whichever opportunity arises first.
Closing Lines: There are some tricky stylistic matchups in the fights tonight, but if either belt is more at risk, it's due to Faber's power and counterpunching trumping Cruz's style of point-fighting. Meanwhile, elsewhere on the main card there are other trends that are worth using in your parlays. That includesHector Lombard who takes on aging legend Dan Henderson.
Not only is Henderson the oldest active fighter in the UFC, he's been knocked down more than anyone in UFC history. That's a huge liability against Lombard, who may be undersized in range, but definitely not in muscle. It also doesn't help that Henderson's head strike defense is poor. Expect Lombard to make the first strike he lands count and set up the finish. You can get Lombard "inside the distance" at minus-255, or the Under 1.5 rounds at minus-190.
In moneyline odds presented here, favorites are negative values. E.g., a moneyline of -300 for a favorite means you must risk $300 to win $100.Underdogs are positive values. E.g., a moneyline of +250 means you win $250 by risking only $100. Prop bets follow the same rules. The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations or account for final closing lines. Raw data is provided by Fight Metric, with analysis by Reed Kuhn, author of "Fightnomics: the Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."
ESPN INSIDER
It's not even the highest profile UFC event of the summer, but this weekend at UFC 199 there will be two title rematches between bitter rivals, and several past and potential contenders filling out the card. Both incumbent champions, Luke Rockhold and Dominick Cruz, are heavily favored over their challengers, but the numbers show very different styles that could reveal where the betting value lies.
Let's first consider the overall fighting effectiveness of the full card and note that both champions take very little damage in their fights, though Rockhold is better at delivering it than Cruz. Meanwhile, the two featherweights facing off before the championship bouts, Max Holloway and Ricardo Lamas, have extremely different fighting profiles.
With two fights having such extreme odds, we'll also consider some totals and props angles as well as assessing whether the favorites are so deserving.
[h=2]Featherweight Matchup: No. 4 Max Holloway (-325) vs No. 5 Ricardo Lamas (+260)[/h]
Max Holloway has been the most prolific fighter for his age in UFC history, being the youngest to reach 10 fights on MMA's biggest stage, and with no signs of slowing down. He's now making his 15th UFC appearance and he's just 24 years old. His last loss was against Conor McGregor back in 2013, and he's managed to pack in eight consecutive wins since. Lamas, on the other hand, is older and perhaps has more big-stage experience, having already competed for a UFC title. His only UFC losses have come against former champion Jose Aldoand perennial contender Chad Lamas.
Holloway's standup striking is superior, but his ground game is at risk if Lamas uses a wrestling heavy approach. Lamas attempts many more takedowns and is capable of stifling the younger striker to steal a round or two. But if they go toe-to-toe, Holloway should be busier, more accurate, and more resilient to damage. The styles here diverge, so if Holloway makes it a high-paced fight, he'll have the advantage, while Lamas will be looking to slow things down and make it a grinder.
Insider Recommends: Holloway's youthfulness and performance-based edges support him as a deserving favorite. He has the tools to outpoint Lamas, and potentially threaten the 24-year old with strikes. But the lines have already pushed Holloway's price way up since opening, diminishing much of that value, and chasing him any further is risky. He may still be parlay fodder for now, but if Lamas ends up higher than plus-300, the value will swing back towards the underdog.
[h=2]Bantamweight Championship Matchup: Champion Dominick Cruz (-500) vs No. 2 Urijah Faber (+400)[/h]
They say "defense wins championships," and Dominick Cruz is the hardest to hit fighter in Bantamweight history. But his elusiveness and high pace of output comes at a cost, and that's his offensive weaponry. His strike accuracy is poor and his power is not a threat. Still, his skills as a technician and strike-and-fade tactics have stymied all opponents in the UFC, including the impressive former champion TJ Dillashaw.
But Faber has faced Cruz twice already, and it's notable that his counter-strike timing improved throughout their last five-round fight. While Cruz is clearly the busier fighter, Faber is the greater threat for a finish. Still, Cruz has never looked better and his wrestling is of the rare caliber to compete with Faber's. Furthermore, the "California Kid" is now 37 years old, so it's likely that if this goes the distance, it will be Cruz who does enough each round to get his hand raised.
Insider Recommends: It's a trilogy grudge match, and overall numbers suggest Cruz can win round-to-round thanks to his wrestling base and superior standup output. But he's also facing an explosive striker for the third time, and Faber knows this matchup is all about timing the right punch. Cruz is most likely to win by decision, a prop that runs just minus-160. The over 4.5 rounds is also parlay fodder at minus-260, assuming neither man goes down easy in a back and forth battle. But the big hedge hear has to be Faber "inside the distance" at plus-740. Risking any amount on Cruz or even the Over should allocate a small share on Faber's prop, which could pay out big if he times the right counter at some point in five rounds.
[h=2]Middleweight Championship: Champion Luke Rockhold (-800) vs No. 4 Michael Bisping (+550)[/h]
Luke Rockhold has been on a tear through the division's best, and he's already faced some of the top contenders when he was still an up and comer in Strikeforce. That's because his ground game is dominant, while his rangy style of kickboxing makes for a dual threat. While striking he puts on a high pace and threatens with powerful kicks, which may lower his accuracy rating but supports his high knockdown rate. It was one of these head kicks that set up his submission finish of Michael Bisping in their first fight.
Meanwhile, the career title-bubble fighter Bisping is riding high having just pulled off his best performance in a gritty upset win over former championAnderson Silva. Bisping has some of the best cardio in the game, and maintains a high pace of output from bell to bell for as many rounds as it takes. But keep in mind this most recent win is against a post-title era Silva, 40 years old at the time of the fight, while Rockhold is now in his prime. Staying busy and out-pointing Rockhold won't be a likely here, and Rockhold not only has a big ground advantage, but is also well favored in power and durability while standing. All these factors combine to support Rockhold as the heavy favorite.
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</article>Insider Recommends: If they stand and trade, Rockhold is very likely to do damage early, and yet if Bisping tries to get to the ground, he'll be in another mismatch against Rockhold's advanced "Luke-jitsu" submission game. The odds for Rockhold are understandably lofty, and even a prop bet for a Rockhold "inside the distance" will run a steep minus-440. Still, a Rockhold finish is the best parlay fodder you'll get on the card, while the most affordable angle on this matchup is the Under 1.5 rounds at just minus-125. Avoid choosing between a TKO and submission finish, as Rockhold will take whichever opportunity arises first.
Closing Lines: There are some tricky stylistic matchups in the fights tonight, but if either belt is more at risk, it's due to Faber's power and counterpunching trumping Cruz's style of point-fighting. Meanwhile, elsewhere on the main card there are other trends that are worth using in your parlays. That includesHector Lombard who takes on aging legend Dan Henderson.
Not only is Henderson the oldest active fighter in the UFC, he's been knocked down more than anyone in UFC history. That's a huge liability against Lombard, who may be undersized in range, but definitely not in muscle. It also doesn't help that Henderson's head strike defense is poor. Expect Lombard to make the first strike he lands count and set up the finish. You can get Lombard "inside the distance" at minus-255, or the Under 1.5 rounds at minus-190.
In moneyline odds presented here, favorites are negative values. E.g., a moneyline of -300 for a favorite means you must risk $300 to win $100.Underdogs are positive values. E.g., a moneyline of +250 means you win $250 by risking only $100. Prop bets follow the same rules. The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations or account for final closing lines. Raw data is provided by Fight Metric, with analysis by Reed Kuhn, author of "Fightnomics: the Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."
