UFC 199: Early Main Card Preview and Predictions
By Steven Rondina - Bleacher Report
Dustin Poirier (19-4), Bobby Green (23-6)
Dustin Poirier has found new life at 155 pounds after spinning his wheels in the featherweight division. He is 3-0 since making the jump, with his most recent performance being an impressive unanimous-decision win over Joe Duffy. With another victory, he is almost certainly in line for a shot to get into the top 10.
His path, however, isn't going to be an easy one, as he faces off with veteran Bobby Green.
Green isn't a big name for casual MMA fans, but the hardest of hardcore fans have known him since 2009, when he faced Dan Lauzon in Affliction. A talented high school wrestler, he quickly developed a potent striking game and continued adding new wrinkles to his offense, which allowed him to rise to the top of King of the Cage, move on to Strikeforce and then make the successful jump to the UFC.
Unfortunately, Green hasn't been in the Octagon since November 2014, when he took a difficult decision loss to Edson Barboza, and that could prove to be the difference. If this fight had taken place in May 2015, Green's diverse striking game likely would have allowed him to keep Poirier off balance early, leading to a decision win.
In May 2016, however, he will need several minutes in the cage to shake off the rust from 19 months of inactivity. That's not a good thing when he only has 15 to work with.
Prediction: Dustin Poirier def. Bobby Green by unanimous decision
Dan Henderson (31-14), Hector Lombard (34-5-1)
Dan Henderson has been on a steady decline over the last four years. Ever since his grisly battle with Mauricio "Shogun" Rua at UFC 139, he has struggled to find any kind of success in the cage, putting together a 2-6 record since 2013. His lack of success has been so consistent and thorough that it's tough to favor him against almost any reasonably skilled opponent.
Hector Lombard? He is more than reasonably skilled.
Despite Lombard's humble 3-3 (1) record in the UFC, he is a terrifying fighter. He has true one-punch knockout power in any position, and he is an incredibly accomplished judoka, previously representing Cuba at the 2000 Olympic Games.
It's possible that Henderson will be able to sneak in a massive punch and steal the fight. In all likelihood, though, it will be another ugly loss for the aging legend.
Prediction: Hector Lombard def. Dan Henderson by TKO in Round 1
Max Holloway (15-3), Ricardo Lamas (16-4)
Max Holloway looks unstoppable at this point.
After a rocky start to his UFC career, Holloway turned things around by rattling off four impressive wins in 2014. In 2015, he upped the ante by doing the same but against remarkably stiff competition. Unfortunately, the drama surrounding Conor McGregor's status as featherweight champion has left him in a holding pattern, and he faces Ricardo Lamas here for little more than a paycheck.
Lamas rose to the top of the UFC featherweight division shortly after it was absorbed from WEC. He earned himself a title shot in 2014 with a four-fight winning streak that saw him knock off Hatsu Hioki and Erik Koch, but then-champion Jose Aldo soundly defeated him when they faced off at UFC 169. Since then, Lamas has been generally successful but has remained far outside the title picture.
The common assumption with this fight is for Holloway to use his superior striking to keep Lamas at range and either out-point en route to a unanimous decision or knock him out late. There's little reason to disagree.
Prediction: Max Holloway def. Ricardo Lamas by unanimous decision
Dominick Cruz (21-1), Urijah Faber (33-8)
Dominick Cruz and Urijah Faber have had one of the most heated, enduring rivalries in MMA history. When they first met in 2007, Cruz was a tomato can to be crushed by Faber, the WEC featherweight champion and company poster boy. Cruz obliged but quickly carved out a niche in the bantamweight division by defeating Ian McCall and Joseph Benavidez, and took the title off Brian Bowles in 2010. Faber would stick around at featherweight but eventually dropped down to 135 pounds because of title fight losses to Mike Brown and Jose Aldo.
After WEC was dissolved, Faber earned himself a shot at Cruz's UFC strap in 2011, but things were radically different by this point. While Cruz was finished in less than two minutes when they first faced off, he had since evolved into an incredibly well-rounded competitor and went on to handily defeat Faber in the rematch at UFC 132. Because of the division's shallowness at the time, however, Faber ended up back at the front of the title shot line just five months later.
The UFC heavily promoted the rubber match by setting up Cruz and Faber to coach against each other on Season 15 of The Ultimate Fighter. While that could have been a breakout opportunity for both men, Cruz suffered a knee injury during the tapings, which set off a chain of events that resulted in his spending three years out of the cage, getting stripped of the title and fighting just one time in four years.
In a shocking twist, Cruz managed to recapture the bantamweight title in January by edging out TJ Dillashaw. Faber kept himself in the thick of contention, and with that, Cruz vs. Faber 3 was once again a reality.
When they first met, Faber was the dominant champion, and Cruz was the contender with a chip on his shoulder. Today, those roles are reversed, and the outcome likely will be as well.
Faber remains solid, but Cruz seems to have aged better despite his many injuries. The difference in cardio and quickness will likely prove to be the determining factor.
Prediction: Dominick Cruz def. Urijah Faber by unanimous decision
Luke Rockhold (15-2), Michael Bisping (28-7)
It's been a long time coming for Michael Bisping.
Since winning The Ultimate Fighter season 3 in 2006, Bisping has been one of the greatest heels in MMA. In the cage, he's one of the dirtiest players in the game, utilizing low blows, illegal knees (like against Jorge Rivera), cage-grabs (like against CB Dollaway) and eye pokes (like against Alan Belcher) to take wins. Out of the cage, he is one of the most ruthless smack-talkers in the game.
Like him or hate him, however, he has been regarded as a top-10 185-pounder for the better part of a decade, and has become a sympathetic figure due to his opponents' frequent drug test failures. That makes this title fight opposite Luke Rockhold special regardless of the less-than-ideal circumstances.
What are those circumstances? First and foremost, Bisping is taking the fight on less than two weeks' notice, and it's worth noting that he hasn't been training for another fight. He's been working on the set of the upcoming xXx movie. What's more, when he actually did have a full camp to face Rockhold in 2014, the fight still ended in a convincing loss for Bisping, getting folded by body shots and tapped out in the second round.
Unfortunately, this likely won't be a storybook ending for Bisping. Rockhold is just too big and too crafty for Bisping, never even mind Bisping on short notice.
Prediction: Luke Rockhold def. Michael Bisping by Submission in Round 3