UFC 199 Info

The Forum - Inglewood, California
Saturday, June 4

Main Card (PPV, 10 PM ET)

Luke Rockhold vs. Michael Bisping
Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber
Max Holloway vs. Ricardo Lamas
Dan Henderson vs. Hector Lombard
Bobby Green vs. Dustin Poirier


Preliminary Card (FS1, 8 PM ET)

Clay Guida vs. Brian Ortega
Beneil Dariush vs. James Vick
Jessica Andrade vs. Jessica Penne
Alex Caceres vs. Cole Miller


Preliminary Card (Fight Pass, 6 PM ET)

Tom Breese vs. Sean Strickland
Luiz Henrique vs. Jonathan Wilson
Kevin Casey vs. Elvis Mutapcic
Dong Hyun Kim vs. Polo Reyes

Luke Rockhold plans to 'lay the smack down' on Michael Bisping at UFC 199, predicts 'devastating' KO



Luke Rockhold minced no words when giving a prediction for his UFC 199 main event rematch with Michael Bisping. The UFC middleweight champ is notoriously confident, but for this one, he said there’s no doubt.

“I know that I’m going to knock Michael Bisping out in devastating fashion,” Rockhold told MMAjunkie. “I don’t think it, I know it. I know it’s going to happen. I’m going to stay composed, I’m going to find my timing, I’m going to pick my shots and then I’m going to lay the smack down.”

Rockhold, No. 1 in the latest USA TODAY Sports/MMAjunkie MMA middleweight rankings, has already handily dispatched of No. 6-ranked Bisping once before. He stopped “The Count” by second-round submission at UFC Fight Night 55 in November 2014.

Under normal circumstances, a rematch wouldn’t have come together so soon. But when Rockhold’s original UFC 199 opponent, Chris Weidman, fell off the card due to injury, Bisping and his three consecutive wins since losing to Rockhold were deemed the most appropriate replacement.

Rockhold dropped Bisping with a head kick before finishing him with a one-armed guillotine choke at UFC Fight Night 55 in showing that earned him a $50,000 “Performance of the Night” bonus. It’s hard to win more impressively than Rockhold did in the first fight, but he promises to upstage his previous effort.

“It’s going to be hard to top, but I guarantee I’m going to top the last performance,” Rockhold said. “It’s going to be that much more precise, that much more devastating. I feel great about this fight. I felt the same about (original opponent) Chris Weidman and it doesn’t matter who I’m going to be in there with, I just know my level has changed from any of these guys and no one’s catching me anytime soon.”

Rockhold, 31, said Bisping, 37, is going to have a difficult time thwarting what he brings to the table. The 185-pound champion, who is out to make his first title defense at UFC 199, owns a five-fight UFC stoppage streak, the longest active streak in the company. That includes wins over the likes of Weidman, Lyoto Machida, and of course Bisping.

The American Kickboxing Academy product has been close to unstoppable since suffering a highlight-reel knockout loss to Vitor Belfort in his octagon debut at UFC on FX 8 in May 2013. However, the setting of a rematch is a first in Rockhold’s career and while that could hinder some fighters, he said it would make him thrive.

“I already have an understanding of what he can bring to the table,” Rockhold said. “If you’re smart you study up and you have an understanding of what you’re in for going into these fights. But there are always a couple variables where you don’t know exactly how you’re going to feel. I know what Bisping does through and through. I haven’t seen too much change. I don’t think he’s declined, but I haven’t seen much get better, and he’s about to find out that I’ve taken my game to another dimension.”

Although Rockhold and Bisping share mostly negative feelings toward one another, as displayed on UFC 199’s pre-fight media conference call, the champion said he appreciates his challenger. Just not for the reason one might think.

“Bisping can definitely sell a fight,” Rockhold said. “(Ronaldo) ‘Jacare’ (Souza) can’t speak English, he can’t even pronounce his name right. Weidman, I don’t know what the hell he’s doing. Going into the last fight, I don’t even know if he believes in himself. It’s refreshing to have some guy at least talk like he believes in himself. These guys – they’re all in for something special.”

UFC 199: Early Main Card Preview and Predictions
By Steven Rondina - Bleacher Report



Dustin Poirier (19-4), Bobby Green (23-6)

Dustin Poirier has found new life at 155 pounds after spinning his wheels in the featherweight division. He is 3-0 since making the jump, with his most recent performance being an impressive unanimous-decision win over Joe Duffy. With another victory, he is almost certainly in line for a shot to get into the top 10.

His path, however, isn't going to be an easy one, as he faces off with veteran Bobby Green.

Green isn't a big name for casual MMA fans, but the hardest of hardcore fans have known him since 2009, when he faced Dan Lauzon in Affliction. A talented high school wrestler, he quickly developed a potent striking game and continued adding new wrinkles to his offense, which allowed him to rise to the top of King of the Cage, move on to Strikeforce and then make the successful jump to the UFC.

Unfortunately, Green hasn't been in the Octagon since November 2014, when he took a difficult decision loss to Edson Barboza, and that could prove to be the difference. If this fight had taken place in May 2015, Green's diverse striking game likely would have allowed him to keep Poirier off balance early, leading to a decision win.

In May 2016, however, he will need several minutes in the cage to shake off the rust from 19 months of inactivity. That's not a good thing when he only has 15 to work with.

Prediction: Dustin Poirier def. Bobby Green by unanimous decision




Dan Henderson (31-14), Hector Lombard (34-5-1)

Dan Henderson has been on a steady decline over the last four years. Ever since his grisly battle with Mauricio "Shogun" Rua at UFC 139, he has struggled to find any kind of success in the cage, putting together a 2-6 record since 2013. His lack of success has been so consistent and thorough that it's tough to favor him against almost any reasonably skilled opponent.

Hector Lombard? He is more than reasonably skilled.

Despite Lombard's humble 3-3 (1) record in the UFC, he is a terrifying fighter. He has true one-punch knockout power in any position, and he is an incredibly accomplished judoka, previously representing Cuba at the 2000 Olympic Games.

It's possible that Henderson will be able to sneak in a massive punch and steal the fight. In all likelihood, though, it will be another ugly loss for the aging legend.

Prediction: Hector Lombard def. Dan Henderson by TKO in Round 1




Max Holloway (15-3), Ricardo Lamas (16-4)

Max Holloway looks unstoppable at this point.

After a rocky start to his UFC career, Holloway turned things around by rattling off four impressive wins in 2014. In 2015, he upped the ante by doing the same but against remarkably stiff competition. Unfortunately, the drama surrounding Conor McGregor's status as featherweight champion has left him in a holding pattern, and he faces Ricardo Lamas here for little more than a paycheck.

Lamas rose to the top of the UFC featherweight division shortly after it was absorbed from WEC. He earned himself a title shot in 2014 with a four-fight winning streak that saw him knock off Hatsu Hioki and Erik Koch, but then-champion Jose Aldo soundly defeated him when they faced off at UFC 169. Since then, Lamas has been generally successful but has remained far outside the title picture.

The common assumption with this fight is for Holloway to use his superior striking to keep Lamas at range and either out-point en route to a unanimous decision or knock him out late. There's little reason to disagree.

Prediction: Max Holloway def. Ricardo Lamas by unanimous decision




Dominick Cruz (21-1), Urijah Faber (33-8)

Dominick Cruz and Urijah Faber have had one of the most heated, enduring rivalries in MMA history. When they first met in 2007, Cruz was a tomato can to be crushed by Faber, the WEC featherweight champion and company poster boy. Cruz obliged but quickly carved out a niche in the bantamweight division by defeating Ian McCall and Joseph Benavidez, and took the title off Brian Bowles in 2010. Faber would stick around at featherweight but eventually dropped down to 135 pounds because of title fight losses to Mike Brown and Jose Aldo.

After WEC was dissolved, Faber earned himself a shot at Cruz's UFC strap in 2011, but things were radically different by this point. While Cruz was finished in less than two minutes when they first faced off, he had since evolved into an incredibly well-rounded competitor and went on to handily defeat Faber in the rematch at UFC 132. Because of the division's shallowness at the time, however, Faber ended up back at the front of the title shot line just five months later.

The UFC heavily promoted the rubber match by setting up Cruz and Faber to coach against each other on Season 15 of The Ultimate Fighter. While that could have been a breakout opportunity for both men, Cruz suffered a knee injury during the tapings, which set off a chain of events that resulted in his spending three years out of the cage, getting stripped of the title and fighting just one time in four years.

In a shocking twist, Cruz managed to recapture the bantamweight title in January by edging out TJ Dillashaw. Faber kept himself in the thick of contention, and with that, Cruz vs. Faber 3 was once again a reality.

When they first met, Faber was the dominant champion, and Cruz was the contender with a chip on his shoulder. Today, those roles are reversed, and the outcome likely will be as well.

Faber remains solid, but Cruz seems to have aged better despite his many injuries. The difference in cardio and quickness will likely prove to be the determining factor.

Prediction: Dominick Cruz def. Urijah Faber by unanimous decision




Luke Rockhold (15-2), Michael Bisping (28-7)

It's been a long time coming for Michael Bisping.

Since winning The Ultimate Fighter season 3 in 2006, Bisping has been one of the greatest heels in MMA. In the cage, he's one of the dirtiest players in the game, utilizing low blows, illegal knees (like against Jorge Rivera), cage-grabs (like against CB Dollaway) and eye pokes (like against Alan Belcher) to take wins. Out of the cage, he is one of the most ruthless smack-talkers in the game.

Like him or hate him, however, he has been regarded as a top-10 185-pounder for the better part of a decade, and has become a sympathetic figure due to his opponents' frequent drug test failures. That makes this title fight opposite Luke Rockhold special regardless of the less-than-ideal circumstances.

What are those circumstances? First and foremost, Bisping is taking the fight on less than two weeks' notice, and it's worth noting that he hasn't been training for another fight. He's been working on the set of the upcoming xXx movie. What's more, when he actually did have a full camp to face Rockhold in 2014, the fight still ended in a convincing loss for Bisping, getting folded by body shots and tapped out in the second round.

Unfortunately, this likely won't be a storybook ending for Bisping. Rockhold is just too big and too crafty for Bisping, never even mind Bisping on short notice.

Prediction: Luke Rockhold def. Michael Bisping by Submission in Round 3

UFC 199 Predictions
from Lootmeister Sports



Luke Rockhold, (-800), 15-2 (4 KOs, 9 Submissions) vs. Michael Bisping, (+500), 28-7 (15 KOs, 4 Submissions)

UFC Middleweight Champion Luke Rockhold will defend his title against substitute challenger Michael Bisping in the main event of UFC 199. With ex-champ Chris Weidman injuring his neck, their rematch will have to take place another time. But as far as replacements go, Bisping isn't a bad choice—a veteran who has been a consistent winner while also providing a lot of entertainment over the years. But as the odds indicate, he is certainly up against it with the reigning champion Rockhold.

In 2014, these two 185-pounders tangled, with Rockhold emerging with a 2nd-round submission win via guillotine choke. And that should be an item of concern for potential Bisping backers, with "The Count" having already been beaten by this man. But that could also play into Bisping's hands. Rockhold was expecting a rematch with Weidman—a critical rematch that could have gone any number of different ways, as the odds suggested. Now he spins out of that to face a big underdog—an aging and battle-scarred battler that he has already beaten. That drop in urgency could resonate in a bad way for Rockhold. Meanwhile, Bisping's urgency will be sky-high. That much we do know.

It has been a long ride for Bisping to get to this spot, his first title opportunity. And if he loses this fight, retirement seems like the only option. The man is a proven winner, with ungodly amounts of fighting spirit in his blood. He knows what he's doing in the octagon, as there is nothing he hasn't seen or anything you can do to him that he hasn't already experienced. He is a fighter through-and-through. And he has enjoyed a decent late-career spurt, with three straight wins since the Rockhold loss. In his last fight, he scored his biggest ever win on paper—a controversial 5-round nod over Anderson Silva.

On the negative side, in addition to the fact that he has already lost to Rockhold, is Bisping's ring-age. Though 37, he's a fighter hanging by a thread. His eye is wonky and he busts up quite easily nowadays. He has been taken a lot of punishment in his career, even in his last fight, which was a win. The turnaround for this fight is pretty quick for Bisping, being that Anderson dished out a lot of punishment on him in their February bout. It's not that Bisping is washed up or anything of the sort. He's pretty close to his best form in terms of fighting. But that form was never quite enough to get him to the top. And you have to wonder how much more he can take, especially at this level. In his defense, there aren't many fighters who were more victimized by the PED era, with some of Bisping's bigger losses coming to juiced fighters. Other losses were pretty close. He's been right on the cusp.

Rockhold, 31, will be making the first defense of the belt he won from Weidman in December. He has a vast arsenal, as Bisping is well aware. In that fight, a Rockhold head kick had Bisping in trouble, before Rockhold went to his black belt Jiu-Jitsu, choking out Bisping. The lanky Rockhold has great range and deceiving robustness for a man of his build. His paths to victory are numerous.

From a skill, energy, and youth perspective, the picture is less-than-rosy for Bisping. But there are other issues at play that create a little daylight for the British vet. We discussed the potential for slippage in the overall urgency of Rockhold as he approaches this fight. We have also seen that logical handicapping of an MMA bout only goes so far in a sport where anything can, and often does, happen. And with Bisping, you're at least getting a fighter at good odds who has an abundance of skill, experience, and passion to win. To get to this spot took a ton of inner-resolve and a man with those types of attributes can never be overlooked.

With that said, I'm not entirely enthusiastic about taking Bisping at only +500, as it seems like it would be an upset of bigger proportions if it were to happen. And Rockhold at -800 leaves little room for any upside. I'm suspecting an early night. I think Bisping is a good story, but one that is due to end soon in somewhat violent fashion. I'm taking Rockhold in rounds one and two.


Loot's Pick to Win the Match: I'm betting on Luke Rockhold to win in rounds one or two.




Dominick Cruz, (-550), 21-1, 7 KOs, 1 Submission) vs. Urijah Faber, (+425), 33-8 (7 KOs, 19 Submissions)

UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz makes the first defense of his title against familiar foe Urijah Faber. It is the third meeting between these two fighters, both of whom are pioneers in the lower-weight classes. With a history that goes back a decade, they finally get to settle matters in this rubber match with all the marbles on the line. It is the first defense for Cruz, who won the title from TJ Dillashaw by 5-round split decision in January.

These two fought twice before. For the WEC featherweight championship in 2007, Faber submitted Cruz with a guillotine choke in the first round. That would be the first and only loss Cruz ever would suffer in his career. In the rematch in the UFC in 2011 for the bantamweight title, Cruz exacted revenge with a unanimous decision win. Both have been through an awful lot since then.

Injuries unfortunately derailed Cruz' career and some thought he'd never have a chance to crawl back into this position. But with his commitment and hard work, he got back to the top of the pile. And now the 30-year old looks to make the most of it. After beating Faber five years ago in their last encounter, Cruz has only fought three times. But against a really good champion in Dillashaw in January, he showed he still has it.

Faber probably should have been champion before now. He certainly has the skills and talent to be a champion. And how many title tries can you give someone as good as Faber before he wins one time? One would expect him to think this is probably his last title shot, as it would be hard to justify giving a fighter a shot after losing 4 times. But it's unfair to label Faber as a fighter who can't win the big one. He's still 9-4 in the UFC and holds wins over some of the best lighter-weight fighters in history. A December 2015 decision win over Eddie Saenz was his last appearance in the octagon.

Cruz has only stopped one opponent in the last 6 years. With 8 stoppages in 22 fights, he doesn't finish the top fighters he faces. Meanwhile, Faber has finished 26 opponents in his 33 wins. With 5 decision losses, however, Faber has lost his share of decisions and Cruz does set a hectic pace that a lot of fighters can't keep up with over the 5-round distance. While acknowledging the full scope of Faber's menace, I see Cruz producing enough energy to eke out a 5-round decision. But at -550, there is absolutely no value on Cruz and the only move is to bet on Faber at +425 on a value play.


Loot's Prediction to Win the Fight: I'm betting on Urijah Faber at +425

MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for the full slate of bouts at UFC 199 today at 5dimes Sportsbook.

UFC 199 Analysis
from MMA Odds Breaker


Brad Taschuk's Analysis:


While Ricardo Lamas has often been looked past in bouts previously, I think this is a very difficult style matchup for him. Normally he’s able to bring either his solid wresting or underrated finishing skills to bear, but Holloway has developed excellent takedown defense, and hasn’t been finished since he came into the UFC as an extremely green 19-year-old. I expect Holloway to keep this standing, and turn what will be a competitive bout early into a rout by the end with his constant pressure and combination punching. As Holloway often does, I could see a third round stoppage as well.

This is the one fight where it won’t matter if Lombard tires, because his skills still perfectly align with Henderson’s. Even tired, he’ll be able to defend any takedown attempts Henderson throws at him, and in the striking he only has to worry about the overhand right. Lombard still has a good chin, and is exponentially faster in every facet of the striking game, even if he tires. If I can get a price under -300 here, I’ll have to throw Lombard in a parlay, and I’ll be even more interested in his inside the distance and round one lines.

Clay Guida has proven in the past that he can neutralize dynamic guard players in MMA, but the best two examples of that have come against Anthony Pettis and Hatsu Hioki, two fights that most people felt he lost. This fight could be very similar, since Ortega hasn’t shown particularly good takedown defense so far and Guida is still solid in top position. However, Guida may not be what he once was, and Ortega is a more relentless grappler than either of the aforementioned opponents, so I’ll have to side with Ortega slightly here. Still, don’t be shocked by a close decision that has people on both sides complaining.

For a long time, I wasn’t sold on Beneil Dariush, and I’ve lost some money betting against him. For some reason, I didn’t continue that trend in his last outing, and look what happened. Despite that, I have to favor him again here, with the biggest factor being James Vick’s deficient takedown defense. Vick doesn’t have the wrestling or scrambling to get into a dominant position like Chiesa was able to. That said, Dariush’s conditioning has to be a point of concern, and that’s a strength for Vick. If this turns into a kickboxing bout in rounds two and three, advantage Vick. I have to think Dariush will be smart to get back in the win column though.

Jessica Andrade would be wise to just power forward with strikes and trap Jessica Penne against the fence in this one. Penne has a bad habit of letting her opponent dictate where the fight will take place, and I can see her hanging around on the fence letting Andrade get some serious work done. However, Andrade is prone to mistakes in fights. A lot of them. At some point I think he ends up on the ground with Penne which is a losing proposition for her. Even on the feet at range, Penne has the sharper striking and a 5-inch reach advantage. Andrade has a clear path to victory, but I can’t trust her to take it without putting herself in bad positions.

Cole Miller and Alex Caceres is a very strange fight. Miller may suffer from a letdown after finding out he’s not fighting BJ Penn, and Caceres is coming in on short notice. As far as their skills go, Miller is a better version of Caceres and normally I’d be behind him here. However, he sounds like he’s got one foot out the MMA door already, and that’s never a good thing to place faith in. I tentatively pick Miller, but pass for a bet.

I’m simply not on board the Tom Breese train yet. I took a stab on Nakamura in that fight because the line was absurd, and I’m hoping the hype on him gives me another nice number on the much more capable Strickland. Strickland is frustrating because it’s easy to see the talent, but he doesn’t fight with enough urgency. Even still, his length and jab should provide a great deal of trouble to Breese on the feet, and if anyone ends up on top here it will be Strickland. That is not a good place to be, even for a fighter like Breese who has show good sweeps and submissions from his back thus far. I’ll take Strickland as a dog if I can get it, but I can potentially see myself pulling my hair out as he does nothing and coasts to a decision loss.

Stay away. Both Wilson and Waisten have undefeated records, both have faced sub-par competition (although Waisten did beat Ildemar Alcantara in his last outing), and both make a habit of beating up undersized, undertalented opponents. What happens when they face somebody the same size that can actually do something? Who knows. Stay away.

One might even say this fight is MMA’s Royal Rumble. Get it? Because they’re both nicknamed ‘King’. Ah! You guys are hopeless. Mutapcic’s takedown defense should keep this from hitting the ground the further it goes, but Casey will mix in takedown attempts early and probably have more success than Barroso did. The takedown attempts, even if unsuccessful, could keep Mutapcic from firing his own offense as well. As pure strikers, Mutapcic has the advantage technically, but he needs to pull the trigger for 15 minutes, not just in desperation mode. If he can do that, he’ll probably win but that’s extremely hard to bank on especially since it’s not just a new problem Mutapcic is encountering.

I don’t really think either of these guys should be in the UFC, but this could be sloppy fun. Both fighters struggle when their opponents put them on the ground, but shouldn’t really have to worry about that here. I guess Polo Reyes gets the edge due to his aggression, but Not Dong Hyun Kim has more than enough power to clip him on the way in, so be somewhat cautious.

UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2: Predicting bonus winners
by David Rouben - FanSided



Predicting which fighters will get to add $50,000 to their checks at UFC 199.

Fight of the Night


Max Holloway vs. Ricardo Lamas

By far the best fight of UFC 199 in terms of the build-up will be Cruz vs. Faber, who have maybe the best rivalry in the sport behind Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier. But some people believe that it should be TJ Dillashaw fighting either one of Cruz or Faber, and that Faber’s recent record in title fights makes this a foregone conclusion.

What made Cruz vs. Dillashaw so intriguing is that they’re equals in practically every department – age, style of fighting (particularly with regards to footwork), and it was billed as champion vs. champion. Faber will find Cruz too fast to hit, and too difficult to grapple with. He’ll make easy work of him and (pun fully intended) cruise to a five-round decision victory.

So while Faber vs. Cruz will be fascinating to watch in the lead-up to UFC 199, it’ll hardly be the most exciting fight on the card. Rather, that title will belong to Max Holloway vs. Ricardo Lamas, who are the fourth and fifth ranked featherweights in the world.

Even without Conor McGregor, featherweight is a deep division that is filled to the brim with talent. The fight itself will be an interesting stylistic contrast of striking vs. wrestling, and both are performing at a very high level. Since losing to Conor McGregor, Holloway has rattled off eight straight wins, while Lamas is 7-2 in the UFC, although those losses came against Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes.

This was the best possible fight to make for Holloway, since it seems like Mendes prefers to take some time off since his last loss. But if Holloway wins this one, it’ll be hard to keep him out of the title conversation for much longer. If Lamas wins, he’s perhaps a Mendes rematch away from getting there.

And another story to watch is, if Holloway wins, whether the UFC will be one step closer to getting a card in Hawaii. Of course, had Holloway’s countryman BJ Penn stayed on the card, it would’ve made for a far more compelling case.



Performance of the Night


Luke Rockhold

Luke Rockhold is not a fan of all the trash talk that Michael Bisping is laying on him, especially after he made such easy work of him almost two years ago. Rockhold vows that he will make easy work of him, and will knock him out quickly, and it’s hard to see how that won’t be the case.

Rockhold is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world for a reason, and his destruction of Chris Weidman came when he was on antibiotics. And that’s not including how he fared against Bisping the last time out, which he described as beating him “with one arm”.

If we see a fully healthy, focused, and pissed off Luke Rockhold in the cage, his win over Bisping will be a sight to behold.



Dustin Poirier

Poirier vs. Green could’ve easily been a contender for Fight of the Night, but in the end, this one is easier to call than Holloway vs. Lamas. If there’s one thing Conor McGregor can be credited for, it’s that anyone who loses to him comes back and does better (save for maybe Chad Mendes).

Ever since he got knocked out by McGregor, Poirier has moved up to lightweight where he’s had a career resurgence. He finished both Carlos Diego Ferreira and Yancy Medeiros in the first round, before putting on a clinic against rising Irish star Joe Duffy.

If Poirier keeps looking as good as he has, expect another great performance from him at UFC 199, as well as talk of a potential title shot start to heat up.



Wild Card


Don’t sleep on Sean Strickland vs. Tom Breese

Sean Strickland vs. Tom Breese will headline the prelims on UFC Fight Pass, and if their current resumes speak to anything, it’s that somebody is going to sleep.

Both of these fighters have one loss in between them, and love to stand and trade. Breese is 3-0 in the UFC with two knockouts, while Strickland is 4-1, having recently dominated Alex Garcia. Breese also has the advantage of having one of the best corners in the world with Firas Zahabi and TriStar.

Although Strickland is the slightly more experienced fighter between the two, they both possess raw talent. Anyone who is a fan of watching two fighters throw haymakers at each other and alternate combinations will enjoy this contest. Having these two headline the Fight Pass portion of a pay-per-view card that should generate good revenue will also help grow the digital platform.

It’s clear that one of these two will be headed for a top 15 ranking, and will get one with a win. It’s not as good of a prospect fight as Thomas Almeida vs. Cody Garbrandt was, but in a stacked welterweight division, these two are making a name for themselves.

Depending on how this fight plays out, it could either be a sleeper pick for Fight of the Night, or the winner could be the recipient of a third Performance of the Night bonus.

UFC 199 predictions: Fight Pass 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 1
By Patrick L. Stumberg - MMA Mania




170 lbs.: Sean Strickland vs. Tom Breese

After a strong debut, Sean Strickland (17-1) saw his stock drop somewhat thanks to a very questionable win over Luke Barnatt and decisive loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio. He’s since won two straight over Igor Araujo and Alex Garcia, knocking out the latter in the final minute of their February showdown.

"Tarzan" has knocked out eight opponents and submitted another four.

England’s Tom Breese (10-0) burst onto the scene with brutal knockouts of Luiz Dutra and Cathal Pendred. Last February, he took on Japanese veteran Keita Nakamura and, though he had to go the distance for the first time in his career, ultimately took home the decision.

He stands two inches taller than Strickland at 6’3."

Two towering Welterweight fighters with great grappling and solid power make for a damn interesting undercard showdown. Both have the potential to make a serious impact in the division, but Strickland’s history of passivity has me picking Breese.

Strickland’s big issue is that -- despite being a physical beast with a great chin and skill in multiple areas of the game -- he has zero urgency. His win over Barnatt was a flat-out robbery and he was way too willing to let Ponzinibbio tee off on him. Even against Garcia, he let a guy with a frankly hilarious height and length disadvantage into the fight before turning it on late.

Breese is capable of matching him on the feet and on the ground and he’s the more active of the two. That seals the deal for the Brit, who takes a competitive decision thanks to volume.

Prediction: Breese via unanimous decision



205 lbs.: Luiz Henrique da Silva vs. Jonathan Wilson

Luiz Henrique da Silva (10-0) has spent his two-and-a-half-year career entirely in his native Brazil, competing at both Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight. His last fight saw him overcome a rough first round to knockout UFC veteran Ildemar Alcantara, who had not been stopped in more than six years.

"Frankenstein" has knocked out all 10 of his professional foes within two rounds, one of them submitting to strikes

Originally slated to debut against Corey Anderson, a whirlwind of injuries on both his and others’ parts led Jonathan Wilson (7-0) to ultimately face Chris Dempsey last August. "Johnny Bravo" needed just 50 seconds to score his sixth knockout in seven fights.

He has ended four fights in less than two minutes.

Good news for those among you looking for wild violence: These two are, in all likelihood, going to stand there and throw heat until one of them falls over. Both have long track records of rapid knockouts and neither the skill nor inclination to do anything but punch really, really hard.

Wilson seems to be the faster of the two and da Silva is worryingly predictable with his lead right hand, not to mention woefully bad at wrestling. Wilson lands something big in the first round.

Prediction: Wilson via first-round knockout



185 lbs.: Kevin Casey vs. Elvis Mutapcic

Kevin Casey (9-4) returned from his steroid suspension with a decision over Ildemar Alcantara, then fought Antonio Carlos Jr. for 11 seconds before suffering a fight-ending eye poke. The last fight for "King" saw his cardio and chin fail him against Rafael Natal, who pounded him out in January.

His nine wins are split evenly between knockouts, submissions and decisions.

Elvis Mutapcic (15-4), a former MFC champion with wins over Cezar Ferreira and Sam Alvey, entered UFC in January as a late replacement against Francimar Barroso. The long-time Middleweight struggled with his foe’s wrestling prowess and ultimately lost a unanimous decision.

He has knocked out five opponents and submitted another seven.

Casey’s a frustrating guy to try and get a bead on. He’s obviously got power, solid wrestling and a great top game, but has a near-preternatural ability to shoot himself in the foot. He was doing well for himself against Rafael Natal before rushing in and getting thumped, and that’s not even mentioning the time he spent an entire round trying to finish a triangle on Josh Samman and burned himself out in the process.

And if the five-course meal of knees Samman fed him afterward wasn’t enough to convince him to fix his cardio, nothing will.

Mutapcic has underperformed in big fights before and has fallen to wrestlers in the past. If I could reasonably expect Casey to put up at least a decent effort for all three rounds, I’d pick him in a heartbeat. As is, expect Mutapcic to face some early adversity before ultimately handing a flagging Casey his fifth knockout loss.

Prediction: Mutapcic via second-round technical knockout



155 lbs.: Dong Hyun Kim vs. Polo Reyes

Dong Hyun Kim (13-7-3) -- no relation to the well-known "Stun Gun" -- stepped up on short notice to take on Dominique Steele in his Octagon debut. Much to the Seoul crowd’s displeasure, "Maestro" couldn’t handle his foe’s size and strength, ultimately suffering a slam knockout in the third round.

He has won seven of his last nine fights, all via stoppage.

The heavy-handed Polo Reyes (5-2) reached the semifinals of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "Latin America 2" before suffering a knockout loss to countryman Horacio Gutierrez. He faced fellow semifinalist Cesar Arzamendia on the Finale, scoring a brutal first-round knockout and earning a "Performance of the Night" bonus in the process.

The knockout brought his professional total to four with one submission as well.

Reyes can thump and is ridiculously durable, but Steele had to dish out a ridiculous amount of punishment to put Kim away. I don’t trust "Marco Polo’s" submission defense to stand up in a prolonged engagement with a much, much more experienced opponent.

Kim probably won’t go nearly as far as the other Dong Hyun Kim, but he might be able to carve out a little niche for himself at Lightweight. He taps Reyes late in the first.

Prediction: Kim via first-round submission

UFC 199: preview and predictions
by Riley Kontek - FanSided



Luke Rockhold vs. Michael Bisping

The main event is a rematch, this time for UFC middleweight gold, as champion Luke Rockhold looks to again refute the effort of one Michael Bisping. In their first meeting, Rockhold made mincemeat of the brash Brit, beating him up until finishing him. Since that fight, Rockhold has gotten even better, which is scary to think about. He is the better striker and grappler, which is why Bisping is going to have such a rough night here. He is tough as all nails, but Rockhold will dominate here, retaining his belt and moving onto the next chapter of his career.


Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber

The co-main event will be a rubber match, as bitter rivals Dominick Cruz and Urijah Faber compete for the UFC Bantamweight Championship. If this rubber match was a couple years ago, I feel it may have been more competitive than now. Cruz showed in besting TJ Dillashaw that extended injury layoff periods did nothing to hamper his abilities. Faber has been on the decline for some time now, and though he is still one of the best in the world, Cruz has eclipsed him completely. Cruz is almost in a league of his own, and will prove it in routing Faber to retain his belt.


Max Holloway vs. Ricardo Lamas

Top featherweights look to jump into title contention, when Hawaiian knockout artist Max Holloway takes on grinder-turned-finisher Ricardo Lamas. Holloway is among the best strikers at 145 pounds right now, while Lamas, who can strike, is amongst the best wrestlers. Holloway has shown some early faults in his counter-wrestling game, but has tightened that up since then. He needs to get aggressive and authoritative early with Lamas or find himself draped on the ground with a solid positional grappler. Lamas scores the win and nets himself a top contender.


Dan Henderson vs. Hector Lombard

Dan Henderson’s career is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, but he will continue to try and make more memories when he takes on Cuban destroyer Hector Lombard. Both men are known for their devastating one-punch knockout power. I like Lombard moving back up to 185, as I think the weight cut to 170 was too much for his body to handle. Add that with a deteriorating chin on Henderson and I think it spells for a recipe of mayhem. Henderson could down Lombard with an H-Bomb, but I think Lombard gets nasty early and downs the legend into possible retirement.


Dustin Poirier vs. Bobby Green

Kicking off the main card are the lightweights, as Cajun banger Dustin Poirier welcomes Bobby Green back to the UFC after a long layoff. Both men like to bang on the feet and both men have good submission games. This becomes a matter of whose is better. Green’s long layoff is concerning, as he has not competed since November of 2014. Poirier, on the other hand, has stayed very busy and found resurgence since moving back up to 155 pounds. He is quicker, less drained and just as deadly. That’s why I will take Poirier for an impressive win in this fight.


Brian Ortega vs. Clay Guida

Headlining the prelims are the featherweights, as Energizer bunny Clay Guida looks to halt the rapid momentum of submission specialist Brian Ortega. Guida has slowed down in recent years, given the many classic bouts he has where he took a bunch of damage that may have hurt him in the long run. He still has cardio for days, an unorthodox striking approach and strong wrestling. Ortega is a new breed type of fighter, who is tough, well-rounded and dangerous. His submission game is scary, especially if Guida puts him on his back, as he has a trademark triangle choke. Ortega will get the biggest win of his career by tapping out Guida.


Beneil Dariush vs. James Vick

Originally Evan Dunham vs. Leonardo Santos, James Vick and Beneil Dariush both stepped up when injuries came upon those two, so now Vick and Dariush will do battle. Both Vick and Dariush love to stand and bang, which is why this fight has exclamation marks all over it. Vick is the taller of the two fighters and longer for that matter. He will want to stay on the outside, while Dariush will want to close the distance and hit big, powerful shots. Dariush also has a wrestling game in his back pocket in case he needs it. This should be a dog fight, and Vick is more than capable of winning. However, Dariush has succeeded against high-level fighters consistently, so I think he can use that to power past Vick in a close bout.


Jessica Penne vs. Jessica Andrade

Too small for the bantamweight division, Jessica Andrade drops two weight classes for her next bout when she takes on former title challenger and Invicta Atomweight champion Jessica Penne. Andrade is going to be bringing a lot of power with her down to 115 pounds. She likes to throw hammers on the feet and defends takedowns with an ultra-tight guillotine choke. Penne is a good technical boxer and will have a speed advantage here, as well as a better submission grappling game. Is she weathers the storm of Andrade, she will be able to find consistent success, which is why I am taking her for the win here.


Cole Miller vs. Alex Caceres

Kicking off the Fox Sports 1 portion of the prelims will be the featherweights, as Alex Caceres steps in on late notice for BJ Penn to take on Cole Miller, a late replacement for Dennis Siver in his own right. Miller and Caceres could make for an early Fight of the Night contender. Miller is a long fighter with an excellent ground game and a world of experience. Caceres is a flashy striker that has some solid submission grappling in his own right. He has to get through the underrated boxing of Miller, who has caught many by surprise. Miller is just all-around superior, so he should walk away with his hand raised here.


Sean Strickland vs. Tom Breese

Top welterweight up-and-comers meet in the Fight Pass headliner, as England’s Tom Breese looks to continue his winning ways against the always-game Sean Strickland. Both men are extremely tough and will bring an aggressive fight to one another. Most of the wins for Breese have come by way of submission, though two of his three UFC wins have come by way of knockout. Strickland is criminally underrated, as he is 4-1 in the UFC with two finish victories and a chin made of granite. Breese didn’t look especially strong in his last bout against Keita Nakamura, which gave me some concern. I will take Strickland in this bout, especially given his advantageous skill set.


Jonathan Wilson vs. Frank Waisten

Debuting light heavyweight Frank Waisten is looking to keep his record perfect, but so is Jonathan Wilson, who returns to the Octagon for his second bout. Don’t expect the judges to get involved in this fight. Waisten is 10-0, all of which have come by way of knockout or TKO. That includes his most recent bout, where he destroyed UFC vet Ildemar Alcantara. Wilson is 7-0, with six of his wins coming by way of knockout. That includes his UFC debut, where he took less than a minute to stop Chris Dempsey. Whoever lands the big blow first wins. I will take Wilson, who may be the quicker and more athletic one to be able to pull the trigger first.


Kevin Casey vs. Elvis Mutapcic

The middleweights will compete next, as Kevin Casey looks to keep Elvis Mutapcic out of the UFC win column. This match will be your classic grappler vs. striker matchup. Casey is strong like a bull and will try to get Mutapcic on his back, where he can soften him up with strikes and go for a submission. Mutapcic has solid takedown defense, however, and a more advanced striking game. That is why I think a sprawl-and-brawl strategy against Casey, who notoriously has a short gas tank. Mutapcic weathers the early storm and scores the win.


Polo Reyes vs. Dong Hyun Kim

A pair of low-rung lightweights will look to jump out of the bottom of the division and into the running when South Korea’s Dong Hyun Kim (not the Stun Gun) takes on Polo Reyes of the TUF Latin America fame. Kim has made himself into the fighter he is taking on low-level talent in Asia. He relies much on this ground game, which includes some good submission ability. Reyes is a tall 155er with good boxing skills, and has looked much improved through the TUF system. Reyes will stick and move, staying out of the shot of Kim. When the time is right, he will land something big and finish it on the ground.

UFC 199: Betting Predictions
from Justin Hartling - Odds Shark




Luke Rockhold (-850) vs Michael Bisping (+525)

Luke Rockhold will close as one of the biggest favorites in UFC history when the Octagon door closes Saturday night. Rockhold is coming off a dominating victory over Chris Weidman, and he thoroughly beat Michael Bisping two years ago. To pile on even more, the Brit enters the fight on short notice.

Rockhold is a phenomenal fighter in every aspect of the game. The San Jose native holds a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and has picked up 60 percent of his career victories via submission. However, his kicking-based offense has become the real catalyst to his game plan, as he tends to set up his submissions with heavy strikes.

Rockhold has underrated wrestling that he uses defensively to set up his ever-growing striking attack. His scrambling ability makes him extremely dangerous when in close, and he specifically excels when fighting against the cage.

Bisping is a volume-based striker who excels as the fight wears on. The Brit is 12-4 in his career when a fight goes past the second round and he is one of the few fighters who statistically lands more significant strikes as a bout moves on. He excels when he can pop in and out of the pocket by landing a few shots then resetting on the outside.

If Bisping stands a chance – which most people don’t believe he does – he will need to weather the early storm. However, Bisping has openly said that his cardio will not be at its usual level with the fight coming up on short notice. That is a major concern for a fighter that depends on wearing down his opponent.

Rockhold is alone at the peak of the middleweight division. His athleticism and well-rounded skillset make it difficult to imagine many fighters defeating him. Bisping was in Toronto filming a movie and not in the gym ahead of this fight. We saw this fight two years ago and it wasn’t pretty. Don’t expect much of a difference.

PICK: Luke Rockhold (-850)



Dominick Cruz (-600) vs Urijah Faber (+400)

This rivalry has been brewing for nearly a decade. Urijah Faber beat Dominick Cruz way back in 2007 in WEC – though at that time Faber was on the top of his game while Cruz was somewhat green compared to today and was basically fed to ‘The California Kid.’ ‘The Dominator’ took a unanimous decision victory over Faber at UFC 132, which makes this rubber match incredibly important to both fighters’ careers.

Cruz’ unique footwork and movement in the cage make him one of the most difficult fighters in the world to deal with. He uses this entirely unique style to dominate fights in the standing game by confusing his opponents and outpointing them. The Dominator also sports some of the best wrestling within the division and above average BJJ skills.

It is hard to find many knocks on Cruz, but his lack of punching power does not inspire confidence. His general lack of finishing ability could very well come back to bite him someday as the longer you spend in the Octagon, the more time you have to lose.

Faber is almost as well-rounded as Cruz. Faber’s striking game is a tad predictable, as it’s based heavily on advanced basics, but he has way more power than Cruz on the feet. The California Kid’s grappling and submission skills make him one of the greatest fighters to ever compete in the lighter weight classes.

There is no doubt that Faber is closer to the end than the start of his career, and at 37 years old he has seen his power and chin deteriorate over the past several years. Luckily, a relatively light puncher in Cruz shouldn’t expose his chin.

This fight should be much more competitive than the odds suggest, but Cruz losing this would be a huge shocker to most. He is the younger and faster fighter and this fight should play out a lot like their second meeting. Faber will land his shots, but Cruz will almost certainly outpoint the Team Alpha Male Leader

PICK: Dominick Cruz (-600)



Max Holloway (-325) vs Ricardo Lamas (+250)

Max Holloway will look to extend his winning streak to nine straight when he takes on Ricardo Lamas.

Holloway is a special talent who joined the UFC in 2012 at the ripe old age of 20. Ever since joining the UFC, the Hawaiian is 11-3.

There is no doubt that Holloway’s meat and potatoes is his striking game. Boxing heavily influences his base stance and his technical proficiency makes him a difficult fighter to deal with. However, Holloway continues to add flashier strikes – particularly a spinning back kick – to his arsenal to keep his opponents guessing.

Lamas is a talented wrestler – a D-III All-American – and he uses those skills to grind out his opponents. The Chicago native does prefer to push his opponent against the cage with his ever-increasing striking game to initiate a clinch and work the takedown from there.

During Holloway’s career there have been question marks around his wrestling ability, but he has been growing defensively in that regard. Lamas has the skills to exploit this potential hole in Holloway’s game, but that will require getting a hold of his opponent. Holloway’s fight IQ and movement should ensure that he can avoid the takedown and keep this fight standing.

PICK: Max Holloway (-325)



Dan Henderson (+300) vs Hector Lombard (-400)

The UFC trots out the senior circuit when 45-year-old Dan Henderson takes on 38-year-old Hector Lombard.

Despite being one of the most important figures in the history of MMA, Henderson is barely a shell of his former self. The former Pride Middleweight and Welterweight Champion is just 2-6 in his past eight fights with the past four losses coming by stoppage.

Age has rendered most of Henderson’s techniques largely useless at this point in his career. He is unable to wrestle the same way that once made him a deadly opponent and his chin is quickly deteriorating. Hendo still has the ‘H-Bomb’ – his massive overhand right – but that is about it at this point.

Lombard looked like a monster in the first round of his last fight – against Neil Magny – but he gassed after that and got pounded into oblivion for the rest of the fight. So, why not jump up a weight class and add another 15 lbs of muscle – that makes sense.

The Cuban has ridiculous power in his hands and is one of the biggest knockout threats in the UFC. Lombard is also a former Olympian in Judo and he has a second-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

If this fight makes it out of the first round I will be shocked and likely bored. Neither of these guys will be able to handle going 15 minutes. Lombard just has way too many tools in his arsenal to expect Henderson to compete. However, if there is one long shot to take on the main card it is probably Hendo with his one-punch KO power.

PICK: Hector Lombard (-400)



Dustin Poirier (-225) vs Bobby Green (+175)

Dustin Poirier looks to continue his impressive run since returning to lightweight, but faces a stiff test in Bobby Green.

Poirier found his home by moving back to lightweight following a solid run at featherweight. Since coming back to 155, ‘The Diamond’ is 3-0 with two first-round stoppage victories.

The long time American Top Team member is well rounded and has the ability to end a fight in most facets of the game. His aggressive, versatile striking style can cause problems for his opponents to deal with. Poirier is also adept at working on the ground and has an ability to use unique submissions.

Poirier is not a great wrestler – he is competent – but grappling with him is problematic because he has no problem fighting from the ground. We have seen that Poirier can be overly aggressive, but he has been doing a better job keeping that in check.

Green is a forgotten man in the lightweight division after dealing with injury issues over the past few years. He is 8-1 in his past nine fights with the loss coming against Edson Barboza, who is now the trendy name in the division.

Green has excellent boxing ability with incredibly fast hands and great head movement. That is both his strength and his weakness, as he doesn’t throw kicks and can be exploited in that aspect of the striking game.

This bout has not been getting a lot of attention on such a big card, but this could be an exciting brawl. With neither man sporting great wrestling ability, I imagine this fight stays standing – which makes me lean Poirier. His versatility in the standup game should be the deciding factor.

PICK: Dustin Poirier (-225)

UFC 199 predictions: Fight Pass 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 2
By Patrick L. Stumberg - MMA Mania




145 lbs.: Clay Guida vs. Brian Ortega

Once on the cusp of Lightweight title contention, Clay Guida (32-16) has alternated wins and losses since consecutive defeats against Benson Henderson and Gray Maynard. He entered his recent bout with Thiago Tavares having previously routed Robbie Peralta, but kept the trend going with a 39-second guillotine loss.

He will give up two inches of height to the 5’9" Brian Ortega (10-0).

"T-City" announced his entrance to the UFC 145-pound division with a rapid submission of Mike de la Torre, only to fail a drug test and be forced out of action for nearly one year. He’s since redeemed himself with thrilling wins over Thiago Tavares and Diego Brandao, stopping both men in the third round.

He’s submitted five opponents and knocked out another.

This fight will go one of two ways: Either Guida will sleepwalk his way through another decision win or Ortega will do horrible things to his windpipe. That’s it ... there is no nuance to this match up.

The dangerous thing about Guida is that he has no shame. He is more than willing to fall into a coma in an opponent’s guard rather than engage in any meaningful capacity, as he did against Hatsu Hioki. I can only imagine the kind of lethargy he’d dredge from the depths of his soul against an active grappler like Ortega. Luckily, "T-City" has the kind of guillotine to preclude such a disaster.

Guida’s just too one-note to thrive in the modern Featherweight division. Ortega slaps on a choke part-way through the first round.

Prediction: Ortega via first-round submission




155 lbs.: James Vick vs. Beneil Dariush

The towering James Vick (9-0) has now won five straight since his loss on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 15, including a submission of top Aussie prospect Jake Matthews. He last fought little more than one month ago, when he overcame a tough first round to defeat TUF: "Brazil 4" winner Glaico Franca by decision.

He stands five inches taller than Beneil Dariush (12-2) at 6’3."

Dariush’s unexpected rise through the Lightweight division hit a snag in the form of Michael Johnson, who the Iranian had to settle for a controversial split decision against. His winning streak came to an official end last month, when Michael Chiesa dispatched him with his signature rear-naked choke.

He replaces the injured Evan Dunham on short notice.

Dunham would have been a nightmare match up for Vick, being a standout wrestler with excellent top control, but I don’t imagine him having much more luck against Dariush. The Kings MMA product is a damn good grappler in his own right and his gym’s brand of relentless offense matches up well with Vick’s long-distance, in-and-out stylings.

Vick struggled with Glaico Franca’s low kicks, a weapon with which Dariush is more than capable, and Dariush actually has the cardio to maintain his assault. Dariush pieces him up on the feet and mat for a redemptive decision win

Prediction: Dariush via unanimous decision




115 lbs.: Jessica Penne vs. Jessica Andrade

Jessica Penne (12-3) -- the former Invicta Atomweight Champion -- reached the semifinals of TUF 20 before ultimately falling to Carla Esparza, beating Lisa Ellis and Aisling Daly along the way. Following a win over Randa Markos on the Finale, she stepped up to replace Claudia Gadelha against Joanna Jedrzejczyk and suffered a frightful beating en route to a technical knockout loss.

She has submitted seven opponents as a professional.

Despite being just 5’2," Jessica Andrade (13-5) spent her first seven UFC fights at Bantamweight, where she compiled a 4-3 record. The 24-year-old last fought in Sept. 2015, where she lost a rematch with Raquel Pennington via submission.

Six of her 10 stoppage wins have come by submission, five of them guillotines.

For all of Penne’s success in Invicta, I really haven’t been impressed with her in UFC. Her striking is terribly underdeveloped and she doesn’t try nearly enough takedowns. Andrade, both well-rounded and absolutely relentless on the feet, strikes me as a rather bad match up.

The one concern here is the weight cut -- 5’2" or not, 20 pounds is pretty significant, especially since Andrade ran out of steam in the Pennington rematch. Still, with how hard she hits and how much of a size advantage she’ll have, it’s hard to pick against her. Andrade sprawls-and-brawls her way to a dominant striking beatdown.

Prediction: Andrade via unanimous decision




145 lbs.: Cole Miller vs. Alex Caceres

Wins over Andy Ogle and Sam Sicilia gave Cole Miller (21-9) his first set of consecutive victories since 2010. And even though he lost to the surging Max Holloway, he is one of the few to take the young star the distance in his recent run. Most recently, "Magrinho" was holding his own against Jim "The Beast" Alers before an eye poke ended things in the second round.

He has submitted seventeen professional opponents.

Once riding high on the heels of a five-fight unbeaten streak -- capped off with an upset submission of Sergio Pettis --Alex Caceres (11-8) soon found himself on a three-fight losing streak. He returned to action in January, taking a decision over Masio Fullen in Newark.

He replaces B.J. Penn, who was flagged for using a banned I.V. by USADA.

Miller is just a bad, bad match up for Caceres. Caceres gets away with some less-than-textbook striking thanks to his height and grappling ability, areas in which Miller holds a sizable edge. Worse, Cole packs a solid jab and powerful right hand with which to maximize his four-inch height advantage.

Miller’s hit-and-miss and will always struggle against the elite because of his nonexistent takedown game, but he’s perfectly well-equipped to take out "Bruce Leroy." Miller dominates on the feet and ground for a wide decision victory.

Prediction: Miller via unanimous decision

Luke Rockhold (15-2)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’3″ Age: 31 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 77″
•Last Fight: TKO win / Chris Weidman (12-12-15)
•Camp: American Kickboxing Academy (San Jose, CA)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ UFC Middleweight Champion
+ Strikeforce Middleweight Title
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 5 KO victories
+ 10 first round finishes
+ 8 Submission wins
+ Good distance management
+ Solid kickboxing variety
^ Dangerous left liver kick
– Head often leans heavily left
+ Excellent top control
^ Technically aggressive
+ Dangerous transitional grappler
^ Crafty from front headlock
+ Superb submission / choke acumen
+ Effective ground striker
+ Consistent pace & pressure



Michael Bisping (28-7)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’2″ Age: 37 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 75.5″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Anderson Silva (2-27-16)
•Camp: RVCA Gym (California/UK)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Excellent


Supplemental info:
+ TUF 3 Winner
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Multiple Grappling Accolades
+ 17 KO victories
+ 11 first round finishes
+ 3 Submission wins
+ Excellent footwork
^ Active & fundamentally sound
+ Consistent cardio & conditioning
+ Manages distance well
+ Intelligent clinch breaks & exits
+ 66 % Striking defense
– Right hand often drops in exchanges
^ Shown left hook & kick availabilities
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Effectively gets back to feet
– Fighting on two weeks notice



Summary:

The main event for UFC 199 stays in the spirit of rematches as Luke Rockhold defends his title against Michael Bisping. Originally slated to rematch Chris Weidman, Luke will now rehash pleasantries with Michael Bisping as the Englishman was more than happy to replace the injured former champion. Despite this not being the best of circumstances for Bisping to receive his title shot, Michael is coming in confident fresh off his upset victory over Anderson Silva. But with only two weeks to prepare for a fighter like Luke Rockhold, we will soon see if Bisping’s acceptance of this challenge is courageous or foolhardy.

Being no stranger to adversity, Bisping has spent the last three years of his career fighting with one eye. Even though he has managed to hold the best striking defense in middleweight history(at a current rate of 66.7%), the Englishman has shown the tendency to lower his right hand. From preemptively parrying to clocking out early in exchanges, this habit has traditionally exposed Bisping to left hooks & high kicks. Unfortunately, this scenario cost Michael greatly in his match with Vitor Belfort as he suffered a detached retina. Although this has added to Bisping’s right-sided vulnerabilities(as seen in subsequent fights), the ever-improving martial artist has shown to make adjustments intelligently since then.

Demonstrating clean exits away from his right side(weak side), Bisping’s avoidance of Luke’s left side will be paramount given how their strengths align. With plenty of experience and sample size against southpaws, Bisping displays a solid outside foot awareness. In fact, he did a good job of executing his angles in his first encounter with Rockhold until getting caught. Although achieving the proper angles, Michael failed to commit and capitalize with his combinations. Even though Rockhold’s check hook is renown for stifling offense, the champion has a tendency to lean his head heavily to the left. We saw Vitor Belfort pick up on this habit as he searched with spinning wheel kicks to that side, and we even heard Weidman’s corner repeatedly call for Chris to expose it in their bout.

Since Bisping had that first fight with Luke, we have seen Michael make concerted efforts in improving his punch commitments under Jason Parrillo. Despite Anderson Silva’s head & trunk movement, we saw Bisping successfully achieve the follow-up left & right hooks he lacked in his initial encounter with Rockhold. Keeping himself afoot & attacking from the proper side will most certainly be Michael’s best chances in this fight, but I am not sure he will have the gas tank to support consistency. Should Bisping slow, there will be no room for rest as Rockhold reminded us of the extent of his opportunism in his last outing. Demonstrating a natural ability for technical destruction to go along with his god given frame, Rockhold could very well put a stamp on this fights momentum should he ground the Count.

I know the majority of this breakdown focused on Bisping’s perspective, but I found it particularly appropriate given the narrative of certainty for Rockhold heading into this fight. And although I may agree with the masses, I always make sure to give a fair argument for the opposing side of my pick. I was one of the few who officially took Bisping against Silva and would love to see him come through here, however, with two weeks notice it is hard to see Michael making it out of the kitchen without being burned.



Official Pick: Rockhold – Inside the distance

Dominick Cruz (21-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’8″ Age: 30 Weight: 135 lbs Reach: 68″
•Last Fight: Decision win / TJ Dillashaw (1-17-16)
•Camp: Alliance MMA (San Diego, CA)
•Stance/Striking Style: Switch-stance / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ UFC Bantamweight Champion
+ WEC Bantamweight Title
+ Wrestling Base
+ 7 KO victories
+ 1 Submission win
+ 5 first round finishes
+ Consistent speed & stamina
+ Excellent distance management
^ Constantly moves & feints
+ Utilizes darts & crouches
^ Allows misdirection/directional changes
+ Solid knee-tap takedowns
^ Well-timed penetrations & transitions
+ Intelligent & effective scrambler
+ Accurate R. uppercut & counter hooks
– Low handed standing guard
^ Relies on head/overall movement
+ Great in-fight instincts/IQ



Urijah Faber (33-8)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’6″ Age: 37 Weight: 135 lbs Reach: 69″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Frankie Saenz (12-12-15)
•Camp: Team Alpha Male (Sacramento, CA)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ WEC Featherweight Title
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ Wrestling Base
+ 9 KO victories
+ 17 Submission wins
+ 13 first round finishes
+ Fast hand & foot speed
^ Deceptively closes distance
+ Dangerous right hand
^ Counters well
+ Good knees & elbows in clinch
^ Strikes well of the break
+ Solid takedown ability
^ Changes levels well
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Deadly chokes / Active back taker
+ Superb scrambling ability
– Heavily reliant on reaction time



Summary:

Serving as the co-main event in Los Angeles is a showdown for the Bantamweight title as Dominick Cruz defends his belt against Urijah Faber. Completing what was one of the greatest career comebacks in sports history earlier this year, Dominick Cruz will attempt to ascertain his position as the best in the world. Looking to have the final say, Urijah Faber will attempt to achieve UFC gold after multiple crawls to contention. With each man holding a victory over the other, expect high-tensions in this rubber match of rivals.

Despite Dominick only fighting three times since their last encounter in comparison to Faber’s eleven, the skill progression’s/gaps in performances of each fighter is a lot closer than the numbers would suggest. Granted Cruz is an outlier of proportions that defy sample size, but he has none the less managed to return in a sharper form of himself. Utilizing “darts” & “crouches” from both sides, Cruz will continually shift stances to set up his attacks and stifle his opposition.

We saw Cruz use these tactics in his last meeting with Faber as Dominick’s movements & feints made it difficult for Urijah to get a beat on him. Subsequently, Faber was forced to look for counters for the majority of the fight. Although Faber was able to score knockdowns and keep things competitive, Cruz was ultimately able to out point him as he dictated the overall action. Not to mention, some of those knockdowns were scored on Dominick as he was switching stances, as being caught off balance is a common defensive side-effect of shifting.

Regardless of their first encounter, Urijah has made improvements of his own in the past few years. Despite his reluctant/rocky relationship with Duane Ludwig, Faber has shown much tighter technique as he strikes with more purpose and process since his time spent with Ludwig. Utilizing feints more intelligently, Urijah will now incorporate more jabs & hooks to set up his patent right hand. These skills will be crucial if Faber means to abandon his prior approach countering, as I suspect he may do in this fight. But the problem in being aggressive with Dominick Cruz is that you will likely play right into his hand.

As we saw in last fight with TJ Dillashaw(and as was stated in my breakdown prior), Cruz will utilize a style of shifting to counter aggression referred to as “opening the gate” in traditional martial arts. Often from the crouch position, Dominick will swing his lead foot back as this will not only switch his stance but change the overall terms of the exchange. Done in a way that lends a false sense of perception to his opponent, this technique flows fluidly into Cruz’s check hooks which counters aggressive on-comers as this was apparent in his last outing.

Although Faber will most certainly need to have that on his radar, I feel that the uppercut may play a role in this matchup. A possible carry-over from his level-changing takedown feints, Faber’s head will often come dangerously low and forward in his entries. Not only can you see this cost him uppercuts in his last match with Cruz, but Urijah was also caught similarly in recent bouts with Frankie Saenz & Cisco Rivera. Cruz, who commonly uppercuts off his crouches, has seemingly sharpened this technique as it was very present in his last bout.

Similar to Dillashaw versus Cruz, I do not expect prolonged ground stanzas given each man’s ability to scramble effectively. Although I suspect both men will have motives to take the other down, they both embody styles that seem to stifle each other. Favoring low-risk positional rides, Cruz’s more catch-style of wrestling often keeps him from overcommitting himself into traps & reversals. Urijah, on the other hand, thrives on grappling chaos as he is quick to initiate a scramble. Faber’s disregard for what are traditionally bad positions is why he is so difficult to hold down. Electing to turtle out from the bottom, Urijah will often risk getting his back taken as we saw in his fight with Iuri Alcantara.

However, with Cruz’s said style I see these exchanges leading to get-ups as it did in their second encounter. And just like in that fight, I feel Faber’s best chances here will be by striking off the breaks. With Dominick disguising his entries with everything short of a smoke bomb, I suspect Urijah will once again look to unload on the exits. A Faber win would make for a fantastic story, but I ultimately see his stylistic chances as a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” scenario. Faber can either approach aggressively or gamble on the counter shot, but I see both paths playing into the champions style and likely the scorecards as well.



Official Pick: Cruz – Decision

Max Holloway (15-3)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’11” Age: 24 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 69″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Jeremy Stephens (12-12-15)
•Camp: Hawaii Elite MMA (Hawaii)
•Stance/Striking Style: Switch-stance / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Excellent


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Multiple Amateur Accolades
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 6 KO victories
+ 3 first round finishes
+ 2 Submission wins
+ Consistent pace & pressure
+ Manages distance well
+ Superb feints & footwork
^ Moves laterally / attacks of angles
+ Excellent variety & shot selection
+ Improved wrestling (82% TD defense)
+ Deceptively counter clinches/grapples
^ Strikes well off the break
+ Dangerous submissions in transitions
– Sometimes starts slow



Ricardo Lamas (16-4)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’8″ Age: 34 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 71″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Diego Sanchez (11-21-15)
•Camp: MMA Masters (Florida)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Div. 3 All-American Wrestler
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 4 KO victories
+ 5 first round finishes
+ 4 Submission wins
+ Accurate left jab & hook
+ Diverse kicking attacks
^ Favors R. leg kicks & L. switch-kicks
+ Strong in the clinch/against cage
^ Looks for knees & takedowns
+ Excellent top pressure
^ Effective ground striker
+ Solid transitional grappler
^ Deceptive submissions & back takes
– Lacks counters / pocket presence



Summary:

In a fun featherweight affair, number five-ranked Ricardo Lamas squares off against number four-ranked Max Holloway in a high-stakes matchup. Despite being thrown to the wolves early on in his UFC career, Max Holloway has steadily learned to swim as he now finds himself on the brink of title contention. Looking to stop Max’s 8-fight winning streak is former title challenger Ricardo Lamas. Snapping Dennis Bermudez’s 7-fight streak back in 2014, Lamas is no stranger to playing the spoiler.

As impressive as Holloway’s winning ways have been, he has yet to face a strong wrestling threat since a razor-thin decision loss to Dennis Bermudez back in 2013. Although Max has shown brilliant glimpses of ground progress in his subsequent bouts, Ricardo’s wrestling prowess alone should raise stylistic flags coming into this fight. That said, I am not so sure Ricardo’s style will mix well with Max in the overall scheme of things.

Starting off on the feet, Lamas is deceptively fast off the foot as he demonstrates a diverse arsenal of kicks. Despite showing improved check hooks and head movement off of his strikes, Lamas has struggled to develop a presence in the pocket as he favors an all-the-way-in or all-the-way-out approach. Often striking in straight lines, Ricardo heavily relies on his speed and reactionary level changes to keep him safe. What I found particularly strange upon reviewing tape on Lamas was his complete lack of counter striking, as Ricardo almost always elects to defend and will only attack after resetting comfortably.

Against a striker who utilizes angles and unrelenting volume such as Holloway, Lamas may find difficulty in dictating the range and finding his shots. Max also does an excellent job of incorporating feints with his footwork, which could do him wonders in this fight when you consider Ricardo’s propensity to bite hard with parries. Subtly switching stances as he shifts laterally, Max will deceptively draw his opposition into following him as he executes attacks that catch them off guard. Showing superb timing, Holloway will usually wait till his opposition is in mid-motion before attacking and angling off.

Holloway’s commitment to mixing up these techniques traditionally make takedowns difficult to setup. Especially for someone like Lamas, who favors his attempts when his opposition’s back is to the cage. Treating the fence like it is electrically charged, you will seldom find Holloway hanging out in this space. Even when he is found or confined here, Max demonstrates solid defensive fundamentals to accompany his slick grip fighting as this allows him to counter clinches effectively.More importantly, Max display superb strikes off the break as I see that being a key factor in this fight.

With Lamas reluctant to counter as he circles out, look for Holloway’s strikes off clinch breaks and exits to help sway momentum his way. Ultimately, I feel Max’s volume, feints, and movement will freeze up Ricardo’s overall game. Whether by scorecards or late stoppage, I expect the featherweight division to have a new title contender.



Official Pick: Holloway – Decision

Dan Henderson (31-14)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’11” Age: 45 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 74″
•Last Fight: KO loss / Vitor Belfort
•Camp: Team Quest (Temecula, CA)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Boxing
•Risk Management: Fiar


Supplemental info:
+ Pride MW & WW Title Holder
+ 2x US Olympic Wrestling Team
+ Multiple Greco-Roman Accolades
+ UFC 17 Tournament Winner
+ Strikeforce LHW Champion
+ 15 KO victories
+ 14 first round finishes
– 2-8 in the last 5 years
+ KO power / heavy hands
+ Physically strong in clinch
+ Devastating right hand
^ Sometimes throws self out of position
+/-Slips head heavily right
^ Often dips low on entries
^ Counter availabilities
+ Solid top game
^ Dangerous ground striker
– Dropped/stopped in 7 of last 10



Hector Lombard (34-5-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’9″ Age: 38 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 71″
•Last Fight: TKO loss / Neil Magny (3-19-16)
•Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Boxing
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ Bellator Middleweight Title
+ Judo Olympian (Cuba)
+ Black Belt BJJ & Judo
+ 22 KO victories
+ 4 Submission wins
+ 21 first round finishes
+ KO power / heavy hands
+ Athletic & Explosive
+ Excellent TD defense (81%)
^ Strong hips & base
+ Dangerous inside the clinch
^ Throws, trips, dirty boxing
+ Solid positional control
+ Accurate right hook
+ Deadly left hand/uppercut
+ Deceptive distance closer
– Subject to activity lulls
^ Gas tank bares watching



Summary:

In a middleweight matchup of two accoladed veterans, Dan Henderson welcomes Hector Lombard back to the division. Moving up from welterweight, Hector was hungry for a quick turnaround after a disappointing loss to Neil Magny in March. Also looking to get back into the cage after an extended camp, the legendary Dan Henderson will once again attempt to get back on the path to glory.

In what feels like a heavyweight affair, both men still carry the knockout power and aggressive natures that got them to the dance. However, Hector is the fighter who has shown to maintain his reaction times as he should hold a clear speed advantage. That said, Lombards athletic supremacy does not come without a caveat. Demonstrating a propensity to fade as the fight goes on, Hector is very dangerous in the first round and subject to activity lulls throughout contests.

Should Henderson weather an early storm, the savvy veteran could potentially exploit Lombard as the battle wears on. The problem with that is, I am not sure how confident I am that Dan’s chin will hold as he has been dropped or stopped in 7/10 of his last fights. Not only that, but Henderson’s on-paper tendencies may play into Hector’s on-paper strengths. Often leaning his head heavily to the right, Henderson keeps his devastating H-Bomb loaded. However, this habit leads Dan into the power side of southpaw attacks as we saw in his most recent bouts with Vitor Belfort.

Although Hector does not possess the kicking acumen of Belfort, the Cuban Olympian does wield a destructive left uppercut as this was the culprit in Dan’s first stoppage loss to Vitor. Henderson will not only have to mind this on his entries but also the deceptive check right hook of Hector. Dan’s best chances of winning this fight may come from his counter right hand as opposed to his traditional offensive H-Bomb. As we saw in his fights with Fedor Emelianenko & Tim Boetsch, Henderson can still be a threat when going backward. If Lombard sleeps on Dan’s abilities here, he may be in for a rude awakening.

Despite Henderson’s well-accoladed career in clinch fighting, he may not have the technical edge in this matchup as he was accustom to early in his career. A technically competent fire hydrant inside the clinch, Hector has been proven difficult to deal with as he bears explosive trips & tosses that he carried over from his Judo background. I am not sure that Henderson can successfully navigate Lombard’s threats at this stage of his career as I feel Hector will use clinch opportunities to stall or score points.

Although it may not sound like it from reading this summary, I have been a huge Dan Henderson fan for the past decade of following this sport. There is nothing more I would love to see than Hendo ride off into the sunset with a win, but I am not sure that this is the matchup for that.



Official Pick: Lombard – Inside the distance