[h=1]NFL season win total betting advice for all 32 teams[/h]Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- NFL over/under season win totals for the 2016 season have been up since Feb. 24 at the CG Technology books here.
Other books followed suit and I posted an ESPN Chalk article with my top 5 value plays (and also discussed the wager's increase in popularity).
Now, we're just three months from the start of the regular season, so it's a great time to go over expectations for all 32 teams.
In addition to listing each team's over/under results from last year and the current numbers from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (from their updated sheets of Monday, June 6), I have two records for comparison purposes.
W/L/T (Win/Loss/Tie): When most people handicap over/under win totals, they look at a team's schedule and go "that's a win," "that's a loss," etc. Well, this is sort of like that but is the number of times each team is favored ("W") or an underdog ("L") or listed at pick-empick 'em ("T") on the CG Technology Week 1-16 lines.
MLE (Money Line Estimate): This is also derived from the CG Technology Week 1-16 lines. Since each game isn't an automatic win or loss, we convert the spread to a money line and the percentage of winning each game outright. For instance, we give a 7-point favorite 0.752 of a win instead of 1.0. Conversely, a 7-point dog would get 0.248. We do this for every game (giving .500 for Week 17) and add up all the percentages to get an estimate on the total number of expected wins. Again, we can adjust where we believe the CG Technology numbers are off, but it's another good starting point.
So we'll go through each team's season win totals and I'll give my Tuley's Take on the best way to bet each team. As before, I'll denote my best bets with an asterisk(*).
Note: We know the favorite doesn't win every game and there are plenty of times people will predict a team will pull an upset, but this gives an overall view of how many times a team is expected to be favored (at least by the CG Technology staff) and how many games are projected to be coin flips. Of course, it's up to handicappers to figure out where CG Technology is off on games, or if they'll be off on lines later in the season due to teams getting off to overachieving or underachieving starts. In addition, all Week 17 games are listed as ties since that is such a random week.
[h=2]AFC East[/h]
[h=3]New England Patriots[/h]2015 record: 12-4 (O/U 10.5, over total by 1.5 games)
2016 O/U season win total: 10.5 (over -120/under EVEN)
W/L/T: 13-1-2; MLE: 10.45
The main question the rest of the offseason is whether Tom Brady's reinstated "Deflategate" suspension will stand, but even with the lines adjusted for him missing the first four games, the Patriots are only an underdog in the season opener at Arizona as 4.5-point road 'dogs. And the only games where they're pick-empick 'em are Week 7 at Pittsburgh and the obligatory Week 17 coin- flip; otherwise they're favored 13 times. When adding up the projected win percentages of all 17 games, we come up with 10.45, right around the number. However, assuming that the Patriots don't start too badly with or without Brady and they're their usual dominant selves, I see their spreads being several points higher and thus the win percentages also coming in higher. If you believe Brady's suspension will get overturned again, the time to bet the over would before the announcement and the oddsmakers adjust.
Tuley's take: Over 10.5
[h=3]Miami Dolphins[/h]2015 record: 6-10 (O/U 9, under total by 3 games)
2016 O/U: 7 (over -120/under EVEN)
W/L/T: 5-9-2; MLE: 7.20
The MLE of 7.20 actually gives some support to a play on the over, but when you look at the games individually it doesn't look as promising. The Dolphins aren't a favorite until hosting the Browns in Week 3 and are underdogs of 8.5, 6 and 6.5 in the first month of the season. And it's a season where tThe franchise is starting over with former Chicago offensive coordinator Adam Gase as their new head coach. He is expected to improve a Miami offense that ranked No. 27 in yards per game, but we'll see how he does with the defense, which was also ranked 27th. If left tackle Laremy Tunsil can play up to his abilities, it will dramatically improve the offense and potentially help Ryan Tannehill take the next step.
Miami is only favored in five games, though, and it's hard to see them stretching that to 8 wins to cash an over bet, so I personally lean to the number. The number of 7 is pretty solid and I almost wish we could bet on exactly a push.
Tuley's take: Under 7
[h=3]New York Jets[/h]2015 record: 10-6 (O/U 7.5, over total by 2.5 games)
2016 O/U: 8 (over +105/under -125)
W/L/T: 5-8-3; MLE: 7.86
The Jets made a lot of positive strides last year and this over/under would be higher if Ryan Fitzpatrick was in camp. As it stands now, the Jets are only favored in five games, with a Money Line Estimate that falls slightly under 8. If I knew for sure that Fitzpatrick's holdout would last through the season, I would make this a best bet, but I'd hate to be holding an under 8 ticket and then have him return. If Fitzpatrick returns, I would still consider the under but only if the win total was increased to 9.5 (the guess here is that it would only go to 9).
Tuley's take: Under 8
[h=3]Buffalo Bills[/h]2015 record: 8-8 (O/U 8.5, under total by 0.5 games)
2016 O/U: 8 (over EVEN/under -120)
W/L/T: 5-10-1; MLE: 7.01
There were a lot of people buying the hype when Rex Ryan moved to Buffalo and inherited a No. 4-ranked defense, but the defense dropped to 19th last season and the Bills finished 8-8 and failed to go over their win total of 8.5. The offense was actually the team's strong suit and we'll see if that continues underTyrod Taylor and a hopefully healthy Sammy Watkins. The Bills' prospects don't look too promising as they're only favored in five games and have a Money Line Estimate that falls nearly a full win below 8 at 7.01. Through the first 11 games, they're only favored twice (-2 vs. the Jets in Week 2 and -7 vs. the 49ers in Week 6).
Unless they can pull off a string of early-season upsets (and they do have three games where they are underdogs of less than a field goal), they're going to be in a big hole. I don't see them pulling out too many of those games, and I wouldn't be surprised if they were home underdogs by the time they host Jacksonville in Week 12 or at least nowhere near 5-point favorites.
Tuley's take: Under 8*
[h=2]AFC North[/h]
[h=3]Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]2015 record: 10-6 (O/U 8.5, over total by 1.5 games)
2016 O/U: 10.5 (over -110/under -110)
W/L/T: 13-0-3; MLE: 10.13
When we add up all the percentages in the Money Line Estimate, we get only 10.13 wins, but my faith in the over 10.5 (which I picked back in April when it was -105 on the over) is restored by the fact Pittsburgh is favored in 13 of its 16 games and not an underdog in any (the other three are pick-empick 'em). Barring injuries (and that's impossible to dismiss based on how many injuries the team had to overcome last year), the Steelers should be among the top teams in the league with one of the most potent offenses and a defense that continues to improve. So why was the MLE so low?
It's due to several other games that are around pick-empick 'em with the Steelers being slight road favorites. I'm expecting them to win most of those, but even if they're close to splitting those close calls, they should still get to 11 wins.
Tuley's take: Over 10.5*
[h=3]Cleveland Browns[/h]2015 record: 3-13 (O/U 6.5, under total by 3.5 games)
2016 O/U: 4.5 (over -155/under +135)
W/L/T: 0-15-1; MLE: 4.58
The money has been coming in slowly on the over, so it appears there are some people out there who think Robert Griffin III can revive his career in Cleveland. The Money Line Estimate seems to give the Browns a chance as their win percentages add up to 4.58 victories, right at the number. However, it's going to take some doing, as the Browns are underdogs in every single game with the only "T" being in Week 17. I'm sure there will going to be some times this season when I take the Browns plus the points, but I can't see them winning too many games outright. The pivotal game on their schedule is probably Week 2 as they're just a 3-point home 'dawg dog to Baltimore. If they can pull off that upset, then maybe they'll develop a winning attitude to help them pick up occasional victories throughout the year.
If they don't, those wins will be fewer and farther between (Week 6 at Tennessee? Week 12 at home against the Giants? Week 16 at home against the Chargers?). With the plus price, I have to take the under, especially given their personnel losses this offseason.
Tuley's take: Under 4.5* (especially at +135)
[h=3]Cincinnati Bengals[/h]2015 record: 12-4 (O/U 8.5, over total by 3.5 games)
2016 O/U: 9.5 (over -135/under +115)
W/L/T: 10-3-3; MLE: 9.26
We seem to say this every year, but the Bengals (for all their postseason shortcomings) are a solid bet during the regular season (they were 12-3-1 ATS for bettors last year and easily surpassed their season win total). Oddsmakers have bumped the Bengals' number up to 9.5 this year, but bettors are still siding with the over. I have to agree (even though I'm hoping they get swept by the Steelers) even though their Money Line Estimate comes in at just 9.26. They are favored in 10 of their games with three more lined at pick-empick 'em, so there's wiggle room even if they drop some of those games they should win. One big thing to watch is if Tyler Boyd can become a No. 2 wideout opposite All-World WR A.J. Green.
Tuley's take: Over 9.5
[h=3]Baltimore Ravens[/h]2015 record: 5-10 (O/U 9, under total by 4 games)
2016 O/U: 8.5 (over +105/under -125)
W/L/T: 6-8-2; MLE: 7.47
The Ravens are coming off a tough season in which they lost a ton of close games and suffered a string of injuries. This is a very proud organization and the players kept the effort high in covering four of their last six games, so there is a school of thought that they can get back to their winning tradition (and they had one of the best draft classes in April). However, their Money Line Estimate comes in a full game under their posted win total of 8.5 and they're only favored in six games. Their first seven games before their bye will tell the tale: if they're not better than 4-3, I think they're heading for 8-8 at best. I believe that's more likely than seeing them start 5-2, even with a relatively weak schedule.
Tuley's take: Under 8.5*
[h=2]AFC South[/h]
[h=3]Indianapolis Colts[/h]2015 record: 8-8 (O/U 10.5, under total by 2.5 games)
2016 O/U: 9 (over -110/under -110)
W/L/T: 8-7-1; MLE: 8.75
The Colts need a lot more Luck in 2016 ... Andrew Luck, that is. His injury-filled season caused Indianapolis to lose its stranglehold on the AFC South to theHouston Texans. The poor season also exposed other weaknesses in the Colts' roster and their over/under season win total is only 9, after being 10.5 before last year. The Money Line Estimate still comes in lower at 8.75 wins, as the Colts are only favored in eight of their games. If Luck can pull out wins in several of those games that are lined at a field goal or less, the Colts have a chance, but I'm not betting on it. Nine does look like a solid number, so I'm not making it a best bet, but it just looks far more likely for the Colts to win 8 as opposed to get to 10.
Tuley's take: Under 9
[h=3]Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]2015 record: 5-11 (O/U 5.5, under total by 0.5 games)
2016 O/U: 7.5 (over -135/under +115)
W/L/T: 1-11-4; MLE: 6.75
The Jaguars are one team where the analytics certainly differ from the way the public is betting. Sportsbooks have been reported a lot of support on the Jaguars for this upcoming season as their offense improved significantly last year and they had a potentially terrific draft (and rookie CB Jalen Ramsey is expected to recover from tearing the meniscus in his right knee). Their over/under has been bet up to 7.5 (with added juice) and I tend to agree -- the Jaguars are an up-and-coming team. However, our Money Line Estimate has their win percentages adding up to only 6.75, and they're favored in just one game at CG Technology (though they have three pick-empick 'ems in addition to Week 17, so there are winnable games on their schedule). Still, I'd have to say they're maybe "a season away" from contending and slightly more likely to stay under this inflated number.
Tuley's take: Under 7.5
[h=3]Houston Texans[/h]2015 record: 9-7 (O/U 8.5, over total by 0.5 games)
2016 O/U: 8.5 (over -145/under +125)
W/L/T: 7-7-2; MLE: 8.00
This is where we preach that early bettors usually get the best numbers. In my April 27 article, I gave out the Texans over 8 and now it's up to 8.5; while they still have to win 9 games to cash, bettors now don't have the added insurance of a refund in case they only get 8. Now, I still like the over as I thought after last season's 9-7 record and division title that the oddsmakers would set them at 9 again, especially with QB Brock Osweiler coming from Denver and RB Lamar Miller coming from Miami in addition to players added to an improving defense around J.J. Watt. It's a close call with the Money Line Estimate at 8.00 (technically it was 7.996 and we rounded up) and the Texans only favored in seven games, but we're trusting that the confidence and experience gained last year will help them pull out a lot of their games that are lined at a field goal or less.
Tuley's take: Over 8.5* (though on record at over 8 -140)
[h=3]Tennessee Titans[/h]2015 record: 3-13 (O/U 5.5, under total by 2.5 games)
2016 O/U: 5.5 (over -150/under +130)
W/L/T: 1-13-2; MLE: 5.64
The Titans are improving slowly with the development of Marcus Mariota and another strong draft. However, even with a relatively low win total of 5.5 (same as last year, which they still fell 2.5 wins short of), it's hard to see them racking up too many wins. The rest of their division continues to improve and their Money Line Estimate adds up to 5.64 wins, which is slightly over 5.5 but a little misleading when you see they're only favored in one game (-6.5 in Week 6 vs. Cleveland). They have a little hope as they're just short home underdogs in Week 1 vs. Minnesota and Week 3 vs. Oakland, but if they don't pick up at least one win in those two, they'll be more likely to be competing for the top draft pick again as opposed to going 6-10 or better.
Tuley's take: Under 5.5
[h=2]AFC West[/h]
[h=3]Denver Broncos[/h]2015 record: 12-4 (O/U 10, over total by 2 games)
2016 O/U: 9.5 (over EVEN/under -120)
W/L/T: 12-3-1; MLE: 9.37
The Broncos are an interesting team as the defending champions lost not only Hall of Famer Peyton Manning at QB this offseason, but his heir apparent, Brock Osweiler, as well. There are certainly plenty of people looking for Denver to suffer a Super Bowl hangover and the Money Line Estimate has their win percentages adding up to only 9.37 (just below their over/under win total of 9.5), but I can't help but think that there's been a bit of an overadjustment. The Broncos will have one of the league's top defenses and whether it's Mark Sanchez or someone else at QB, the offense should be balanced enough to be competitive. The Broncos are still favored in 12 of their games so I think the value has flipped to the over.
Tuley's take: Over 9.5*
[h=3]San Diego Chargers[/h]2015 record: 4-12 (O/U 8, under total by 4 games)
2016 O/U: 7 (over EVEN/under -120)
W/L/T: 7-8-1; MLE: 6.85
There's a lot of uncertainly around San Diego, not the least of which is where the franchise will be located in the not-so-distant future. The team was also a mystery last year, going 1-5 ATS in games in which it was favored and 7-4 ATS as underdogs. The Chargers were certainly more competitive than their 4-12 SU record would indicate, but we're unsure if they're going to return to .500 or be playoff contenders. With their Money Line Estimate coming in at 6.85 wins and favorites in seven of their games, the Chargers' over/under of 7 looks to be pretty much spot-on. I'll lean to the over, but not enough to make a wager.
Tuley's take: Over 7
[h=3]Kansas City Chiefs[/h]2015 record: 11-5 (O/U 8.5, over total by 2.5 games)
2016 O/U: 9 (over -140/under +120)
W/L/T: 8-4-4; MLE: 9.26
The Chiefs were one of the amazing stories of the 2015 season. After winning their opener, theyu lost five straight games before reeling off 11 straight wins, including a 30-0 rout of the Texans in the playoffs before falling to the Patriots in the divisional round. No one is taking them lightly heading into this season, so it's hard to see them get 11 wins again. But can they win 10 to get the over? I'm not so sure.
The Raiders are improving and the Broncos will still be tough in the division. Our Money Line Estimate has them at 9.26 wins, which is over their total but short of the 10 wins they'll actually need to cash. They are favored in eight games and the key to whether they can get to double digits probably lies in how they fare in their pick-empick 'em games at Houston in Week 2 and at Oakland in Week 6. Sweep those and the over looks better; get swept and they might be a .500 team.
Tuley's take: Under 9
[h=3]Oakland Raiders[/h]2015 record: 7-9 (O/U 5.5, over total by 1.5 games)
2016 O/U: 8.5 (over -140/under +120)
W/L/T: 8-3-5; MLE: 8.16
The Raiders are another wildly popular over play with season win total bettors.Derek Carr and Amari Cooper have taken the Oakland passing attack to a new level and the Raiders also had Latavius Murray emerge as a 1,000-yard back. They've gone from being a doormat in the league to a playoff contender with at least 9 wins this season (if you trust the bettors who have been backing them). I'm on the bandwagon, but remain a little cautiously optimistic. Their Money Line Estimate does add up to just 8.16 wins, so they need to pull out some of their coin-flip games, especially as they have four games at pick-empick 'em. It is encouraging that they're only outright 'dogs in three games and none of them are by more than a field goal: +2 at Baltimore in Week 4, +1 at home vs. Denver in Week 9 and +3 vs. Carolina in Week 12. The big question will be how the back of this defense holds up without Charles Woodson.
Tuley's take: Over 8.5
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- NFL over/under season win totals for the 2016 season have been up since Feb. 24 at the CG Technology books here.
Other books followed suit and I posted an ESPN Chalk article with my top 5 value plays (and also discussed the wager's increase in popularity).
Now, we're just three months from the start of the regular season, so it's a great time to go over expectations for all 32 teams.
In addition to listing each team's over/under results from last year and the current numbers from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (from their updated sheets of Monday, June 6), I have two records for comparison purposes.
W/L/T (Win/Loss/Tie): When most people handicap over/under win totals, they look at a team's schedule and go "that's a win," "that's a loss," etc. Well, this is sort of like that but is the number of times each team is favored ("W") or an underdog ("L") or listed at pick-empick 'em ("T") on the CG Technology Week 1-16 lines.
MLE (Money Line Estimate): This is also derived from the CG Technology Week 1-16 lines. Since each game isn't an automatic win or loss, we convert the spread to a money line and the percentage of winning each game outright. For instance, we give a 7-point favorite 0.752 of a win instead of 1.0. Conversely, a 7-point dog would get 0.248. We do this for every game (giving .500 for Week 17) and add up all the percentages to get an estimate on the total number of expected wins. Again, we can adjust where we believe the CG Technology numbers are off, but it's another good starting point.
So we'll go through each team's season win totals and I'll give my Tuley's Take on the best way to bet each team. As before, I'll denote my best bets with an asterisk(*).
Note: We know the favorite doesn't win every game and there are plenty of times people will predict a team will pull an upset, but this gives an overall view of how many times a team is expected to be favored (at least by the CG Technology staff) and how many games are projected to be coin flips. Of course, it's up to handicappers to figure out where CG Technology is off on games, or if they'll be off on lines later in the season due to teams getting off to overachieving or underachieving starts. In addition, all Week 17 games are listed as ties since that is such a random week.
[h=2]AFC East[/h]
[h=3]New England Patriots[/h]2015 record: 12-4 (O/U 10.5, over total by 1.5 games)
2016 O/U season win total: 10.5 (over -120/under EVEN)
W/L/T: 13-1-2; MLE: 10.45
The main question the rest of the offseason is whether Tom Brady's reinstated "Deflategate" suspension will stand, but even with the lines adjusted for him missing the first four games, the Patriots are only an underdog in the season opener at Arizona as 4.5-point road 'dogs. And the only games where they're pick-empick 'em are Week 7 at Pittsburgh and the obligatory Week 17 coin- flip; otherwise they're favored 13 times. When adding up the projected win percentages of all 17 games, we come up with 10.45, right around the number. However, assuming that the Patriots don't start too badly with or without Brady and they're their usual dominant selves, I see their spreads being several points higher and thus the win percentages also coming in higher. If you believe Brady's suspension will get overturned again, the time to bet the over would before the announcement and the oddsmakers adjust.
Tuley's take: Over 10.5
[h=3]Miami Dolphins[/h]2015 record: 6-10 (O/U 9, under total by 3 games)
2016 O/U: 7 (over -120/under EVEN)
W/L/T: 5-9-2; MLE: 7.20
The MLE of 7.20 actually gives some support to a play on the over, but when you look at the games individually it doesn't look as promising. The Dolphins aren't a favorite until hosting the Browns in Week 3 and are underdogs of 8.5, 6 and 6.5 in the first month of the season. And it's a season where tThe franchise is starting over with former Chicago offensive coordinator Adam Gase as their new head coach. He is expected to improve a Miami offense that ranked No. 27 in yards per game, but we'll see how he does with the defense, which was also ranked 27th. If left tackle Laremy Tunsil can play up to his abilities, it will dramatically improve the offense and potentially help Ryan Tannehill take the next step.
Miami is only favored in five games, though, and it's hard to see them stretching that to 8 wins to cash an over bet, so I personally lean to the number. The number of 7 is pretty solid and I almost wish we could bet on exactly a push.
Tuley's take: Under 7
[h=3]New York Jets[/h]2015 record: 10-6 (O/U 7.5, over total by 2.5 games)
2016 O/U: 8 (over +105/under -125)
W/L/T: 5-8-3; MLE: 7.86
The Jets made a lot of positive strides last year and this over/under would be higher if Ryan Fitzpatrick was in camp. As it stands now, the Jets are only favored in five games, with a Money Line Estimate that falls slightly under 8. If I knew for sure that Fitzpatrick's holdout would last through the season, I would make this a best bet, but I'd hate to be holding an under 8 ticket and then have him return. If Fitzpatrick returns, I would still consider the under but only if the win total was increased to 9.5 (the guess here is that it would only go to 9).
Tuley's take: Under 8
[h=3]Buffalo Bills[/h]2015 record: 8-8 (O/U 8.5, under total by 0.5 games)
2016 O/U: 8 (over EVEN/under -120)
W/L/T: 5-10-1; MLE: 7.01
There were a lot of people buying the hype when Rex Ryan moved to Buffalo and inherited a No. 4-ranked defense, but the defense dropped to 19th last season and the Bills finished 8-8 and failed to go over their win total of 8.5. The offense was actually the team's strong suit and we'll see if that continues underTyrod Taylor and a hopefully healthy Sammy Watkins. The Bills' prospects don't look too promising as they're only favored in five games and have a Money Line Estimate that falls nearly a full win below 8 at 7.01. Through the first 11 games, they're only favored twice (-2 vs. the Jets in Week 2 and -7 vs. the 49ers in Week 6).
Unless they can pull off a string of early-season upsets (and they do have three games where they are underdogs of less than a field goal), they're going to be in a big hole. I don't see them pulling out too many of those games, and I wouldn't be surprised if they were home underdogs by the time they host Jacksonville in Week 12 or at least nowhere near 5-point favorites.
Tuley's take: Under 8*
[h=2]AFC North[/h]
[h=3]Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]2015 record: 10-6 (O/U 8.5, over total by 1.5 games)
2016 O/U: 10.5 (over -110/under -110)
W/L/T: 13-0-3; MLE: 10.13
When we add up all the percentages in the Money Line Estimate, we get only 10.13 wins, but my faith in the over 10.5 (which I picked back in April when it was -105 on the over) is restored by the fact Pittsburgh is favored in 13 of its 16 games and not an underdog in any (the other three are pick-empick 'em). Barring injuries (and that's impossible to dismiss based on how many injuries the team had to overcome last year), the Steelers should be among the top teams in the league with one of the most potent offenses and a defense that continues to improve. So why was the MLE so low?
It's due to several other games that are around pick-empick 'em with the Steelers being slight road favorites. I'm expecting them to win most of those, but even if they're close to splitting those close calls, they should still get to 11 wins.
Tuley's take: Over 10.5*
[h=3]Cleveland Browns[/h]2015 record: 3-13 (O/U 6.5, under total by 3.5 games)
2016 O/U: 4.5 (over -155/under +135)
W/L/T: 0-15-1; MLE: 4.58
The money has been coming in slowly on the over, so it appears there are some people out there who think Robert Griffin III can revive his career in Cleveland. The Money Line Estimate seems to give the Browns a chance as their win percentages add up to 4.58 victories, right at the number. However, it's going to take some doing, as the Browns are underdogs in every single game with the only "T" being in Week 17. I'm sure there will going to be some times this season when I take the Browns plus the points, but I can't see them winning too many games outright. The pivotal game on their schedule is probably Week 2 as they're just a 3-point home 'dawg dog to Baltimore. If they can pull off that upset, then maybe they'll develop a winning attitude to help them pick up occasional victories throughout the year.
If they don't, those wins will be fewer and farther between (Week 6 at Tennessee? Week 12 at home against the Giants? Week 16 at home against the Chargers?). With the plus price, I have to take the under, especially given their personnel losses this offseason.
Tuley's take: Under 4.5* (especially at +135)
[h=3]Cincinnati Bengals[/h]2015 record: 12-4 (O/U 8.5, over total by 3.5 games)
2016 O/U: 9.5 (over -135/under +115)
W/L/T: 10-3-3; MLE: 9.26
We seem to say this every year, but the Bengals (for all their postseason shortcomings) are a solid bet during the regular season (they were 12-3-1 ATS for bettors last year and easily surpassed their season win total). Oddsmakers have bumped the Bengals' number up to 9.5 this year, but bettors are still siding with the over. I have to agree (even though I'm hoping they get swept by the Steelers) even though their Money Line Estimate comes in at just 9.26. They are favored in 10 of their games with three more lined at pick-empick 'em, so there's wiggle room even if they drop some of those games they should win. One big thing to watch is if Tyler Boyd can become a No. 2 wideout opposite All-World WR A.J. Green.
Tuley's take: Over 9.5
[h=3]Baltimore Ravens[/h]2015 record: 5-10 (O/U 9, under total by 4 games)
2016 O/U: 8.5 (over +105/under -125)
W/L/T: 6-8-2; MLE: 7.47
The Ravens are coming off a tough season in which they lost a ton of close games and suffered a string of injuries. This is a very proud organization and the players kept the effort high in covering four of their last six games, so there is a school of thought that they can get back to their winning tradition (and they had one of the best draft classes in April). However, their Money Line Estimate comes in a full game under their posted win total of 8.5 and they're only favored in six games. Their first seven games before their bye will tell the tale: if they're not better than 4-3, I think they're heading for 8-8 at best. I believe that's more likely than seeing them start 5-2, even with a relatively weak schedule.
Tuley's take: Under 8.5*
[h=2]AFC South[/h]
[h=3]Indianapolis Colts[/h]2015 record: 8-8 (O/U 10.5, under total by 2.5 games)
2016 O/U: 9 (over -110/under -110)
W/L/T: 8-7-1; MLE: 8.75
The Colts need a lot more Luck in 2016 ... Andrew Luck, that is. His injury-filled season caused Indianapolis to lose its stranglehold on the AFC South to theHouston Texans. The poor season also exposed other weaknesses in the Colts' roster and their over/under season win total is only 9, after being 10.5 before last year. The Money Line Estimate still comes in lower at 8.75 wins, as the Colts are only favored in eight of their games. If Luck can pull out wins in several of those games that are lined at a field goal or less, the Colts have a chance, but I'm not betting on it. Nine does look like a solid number, so I'm not making it a best bet, but it just looks far more likely for the Colts to win 8 as opposed to get to 10.
Tuley's take: Under 9
[h=3]Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]2015 record: 5-11 (O/U 5.5, under total by 0.5 games)
2016 O/U: 7.5 (over -135/under +115)
W/L/T: 1-11-4; MLE: 6.75
The Jaguars are one team where the analytics certainly differ from the way the public is betting. Sportsbooks have been reported a lot of support on the Jaguars for this upcoming season as their offense improved significantly last year and they had a potentially terrific draft (and rookie CB Jalen Ramsey is expected to recover from tearing the meniscus in his right knee). Their over/under has been bet up to 7.5 (with added juice) and I tend to agree -- the Jaguars are an up-and-coming team. However, our Money Line Estimate has their win percentages adding up to only 6.75, and they're favored in just one game at CG Technology (though they have three pick-empick 'ems in addition to Week 17, so there are winnable games on their schedule). Still, I'd have to say they're maybe "a season away" from contending and slightly more likely to stay under this inflated number.
Tuley's take: Under 7.5
[h=3]Houston Texans[/h]2015 record: 9-7 (O/U 8.5, over total by 0.5 games)
2016 O/U: 8.5 (over -145/under +125)
W/L/T: 7-7-2; MLE: 8.00
This is where we preach that early bettors usually get the best numbers. In my April 27 article, I gave out the Texans over 8 and now it's up to 8.5; while they still have to win 9 games to cash, bettors now don't have the added insurance of a refund in case they only get 8. Now, I still like the over as I thought after last season's 9-7 record and division title that the oddsmakers would set them at 9 again, especially with QB Brock Osweiler coming from Denver and RB Lamar Miller coming from Miami in addition to players added to an improving defense around J.J. Watt. It's a close call with the Money Line Estimate at 8.00 (technically it was 7.996 and we rounded up) and the Texans only favored in seven games, but we're trusting that the confidence and experience gained last year will help them pull out a lot of their games that are lined at a field goal or less.
Tuley's take: Over 8.5* (though on record at over 8 -140)
[h=3]Tennessee Titans[/h]2015 record: 3-13 (O/U 5.5, under total by 2.5 games)
2016 O/U: 5.5 (over -150/under +130)
W/L/T: 1-13-2; MLE: 5.64
The Titans are improving slowly with the development of Marcus Mariota and another strong draft. However, even with a relatively low win total of 5.5 (same as last year, which they still fell 2.5 wins short of), it's hard to see them racking up too many wins. The rest of their division continues to improve and their Money Line Estimate adds up to 5.64 wins, which is slightly over 5.5 but a little misleading when you see they're only favored in one game (-6.5 in Week 6 vs. Cleveland). They have a little hope as they're just short home underdogs in Week 1 vs. Minnesota and Week 3 vs. Oakland, but if they don't pick up at least one win in those two, they'll be more likely to be competing for the top draft pick again as opposed to going 6-10 or better.
Tuley's take: Under 5.5
[h=2]AFC West[/h]
[h=3]Denver Broncos[/h]2015 record: 12-4 (O/U 10, over total by 2 games)
2016 O/U: 9.5 (over EVEN/under -120)
W/L/T: 12-3-1; MLE: 9.37
The Broncos are an interesting team as the defending champions lost not only Hall of Famer Peyton Manning at QB this offseason, but his heir apparent, Brock Osweiler, as well. There are certainly plenty of people looking for Denver to suffer a Super Bowl hangover and the Money Line Estimate has their win percentages adding up to only 9.37 (just below their over/under win total of 9.5), but I can't help but think that there's been a bit of an overadjustment. The Broncos will have one of the league's top defenses and whether it's Mark Sanchez or someone else at QB, the offense should be balanced enough to be competitive. The Broncos are still favored in 12 of their games so I think the value has flipped to the over.
Tuley's take: Over 9.5*
[h=3]San Diego Chargers[/h]2015 record: 4-12 (O/U 8, under total by 4 games)
2016 O/U: 7 (over EVEN/under -120)
W/L/T: 7-8-1; MLE: 6.85
There's a lot of uncertainly around San Diego, not the least of which is where the franchise will be located in the not-so-distant future. The team was also a mystery last year, going 1-5 ATS in games in which it was favored and 7-4 ATS as underdogs. The Chargers were certainly more competitive than their 4-12 SU record would indicate, but we're unsure if they're going to return to .500 or be playoff contenders. With their Money Line Estimate coming in at 6.85 wins and favorites in seven of their games, the Chargers' over/under of 7 looks to be pretty much spot-on. I'll lean to the over, but not enough to make a wager.
Tuley's take: Over 7
[h=3]Kansas City Chiefs[/h]2015 record: 11-5 (O/U 8.5, over total by 2.5 games)
2016 O/U: 9 (over -140/under +120)
W/L/T: 8-4-4; MLE: 9.26
The Chiefs were one of the amazing stories of the 2015 season. After winning their opener, theyu lost five straight games before reeling off 11 straight wins, including a 30-0 rout of the Texans in the playoffs before falling to the Patriots in the divisional round. No one is taking them lightly heading into this season, so it's hard to see them get 11 wins again. But can they win 10 to get the over? I'm not so sure.
The Raiders are improving and the Broncos will still be tough in the division. Our Money Line Estimate has them at 9.26 wins, which is over their total but short of the 10 wins they'll actually need to cash. They are favored in eight games and the key to whether they can get to double digits probably lies in how they fare in their pick-empick 'em games at Houston in Week 2 and at Oakland in Week 6. Sweep those and the over looks better; get swept and they might be a .500 team.
Tuley's take: Under 9
[h=3]Oakland Raiders[/h]2015 record: 7-9 (O/U 5.5, over total by 1.5 games)
2016 O/U: 8.5 (over -140/under +120)
W/L/T: 8-3-5; MLE: 8.16
The Raiders are another wildly popular over play with season win total bettors.Derek Carr and Amari Cooper have taken the Oakland passing attack to a new level and the Raiders also had Latavius Murray emerge as a 1,000-yard back. They've gone from being a doormat in the league to a playoff contender with at least 9 wins this season (if you trust the bettors who have been backing them). I'm on the bandwagon, but remain a little cautiously optimistic. Their Money Line Estimate does add up to just 8.16 wins, so they need to pull out some of their coin-flip games, especially as they have four games at pick-empick 'em. It is encouraging that they're only outright 'dogs in three games and none of them are by more than a field goal: +2 at Baltimore in Week 4, +1 at home vs. Denver in Week 9 and +3 vs. Carolina in Week 12. The big question will be how the back of this defense holds up without Charles Woodson.
Tuley's take: Over 8.5
