You could rank these, but you'd have to further break it down. If you have a bad team that is covering, then their ability to hold the cover is completely different for each sport.
Baseball, although occasionally schizophrenic, has a high win rate for just the team scoring the first run of the game and hence the lead.
You can break it all down with the math, but in the end it comes down to one thing: NO FUCKING MAN OR COVER IS SAFE.
(Yes, you can be up by 5 touchdowns in the 4th quarter and it's over... but not talking about that)
Probably most of the games will be in the range of a backdoor no matter what the sport. Bottom line: You are never safe.
Real life example:
NBA game with -11.5. Lead by 39 points in the game and have a 31-point lead in the 4th quarter. Covering from the 7:00 point in the first quarter. Covering the whole game until the last shot of the game. A 3-pointer at the buzzer to lose by 10 points. No man is safe.