[h=1]How to bet Sunday night's Dodgers-Giants matchup[/h]MLB Vegas ExpertsESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIder
ESPN Chalk's team of MLB handicappers will try to help end your baseball betting week on a winning note by breaking down the Los Angeles Dodgers vs.San Francisco Giants matchup on Sunday at 8:30 p.m. ET.
This is the rubber game of a three-game weekend set as the Dodgers won Friday night, but the Giants prevailed 5-4 in 10 innings to increase their NL West lead to four games. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this game with the Giants as -120 home favorites, but it flipped overnight to the Dodgers being favored at -115.
On the season, Joe Peta is 5-3 on Sunday nighters for a net profit of 2.48 units (risking the price on the favorite to win one unit or laying one unit on the underdog) while Dave Tuley is 3-2 for a net profit of 0.7 units on over/unders. Erin Rynning joins the rotation this week and is on the same side as Tuley on the total while Peta looks at the straight-up winner.
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Westgate line: Los Angeles Dodgers (Urias) -115 @ San Francisco Giants (Peavy) +105
Over/under: 8 (O -115, U -105)
PickCenter Intel
Joe Peta: With a bit more than one-third of the season complete, the National League is shaping up to have two, perhaps three, separate one-on-one battles for the postseason: St. Louis vs. Pittsburgh for a wild-card berth and Los Angeles vs. San Francisco for the NL West title. (If the Miami Marlins can find a way to beat the Atlanta Braves, they could crash the third potential divisional battle between the Mets and the Nationals.) All wins, therefore, are not created equal; the 18 most important games the Giants play this year are against the Dodgers.
That makes Bruce Bochy's handling of the rotation this week all the more curious. Had the Giants pitched Madison Bumgarner on normal rest Tuesday, he could have thrown again Sunday night. Instead, this past Tuesday, the Giants gave a spot start to Albert Suarez, pushing Bumgarner to Wednesday, which means Sunday Night Baseball viewers will get their second straight look at Jake Peavy. To me, this is a big strategic error. It can't possibly alter Peavy's effectiveness if he pitches tonight on six days' rest instead of tomorrow night versus the Milwaukee Brewers on seven, but it matters a ton to their opponents. In my eye, by blundering the rotation order, the Giants may not have materially changed their odds of winning Sunday night's and Monday night's game, but they have absolutely raised the Dodgers' chances (and conversely lowered the Brewers').
I wrote about Peavy in this space last week, so a recap is sufficient: He has his flaws and is unquestionably on the downside of his career, but as long as the Giants are playing top-tier defense, he should allow runs at a sub 4.00 ERA rate. Oddsmakers appear to price him at least half-a-run higher. That's going to lead me to back him again tonight -- but it comes with a huge caveat, as explained below. But first, a look at his pitching counterpart.
Julio Urias made his major league debut three starts ago as a much-heralded 19-year-old. In his first start he went off as a plus-100 dog, which wouldn't necessarily be notable until you learn it was on the road -- vs. Jacob deGrom! Clearly oddsmakers have made a huge adjustment as Urias is a bigger underdog tonight vs. Peavy than he was against deGrom. By my model, though, the Giants are not only a better offensive team than the Dodgers -- making their short odds at home an appealing proposition -- but better than the Mets as well, which puts some of the apparent downgrade of Urias in context. However, the evaluation of their offense is only valid if Buster Posey starts.
The problem is that Bochy often rests Posey with Peavy on the mound. With the left-handed Urias starting, there's certainly a chance Posey will start at first base, giving Brandon Belt the night off, in contrast to last week's contest, when Posey spent the night on the bench. That's the caveat for Sunday night's game. If Buster Posey starts, the Giants are the play. If not, it's a pass.
ESPN Chalk pick: San Francisco Giants +105 (if Posey starts, otherwise pass)
Erin Rynning: The numbers are troubling for both starting pitchers in this rivalry showdown. Peavy sports a high 6.41 ERA on the season. There's no question his stuff has regressed from his Cy Young 2007 season. In fact, his average fastball velocity in 2007 was near 95 mph, while he's just a tick under 90 mph this season. The analytics do show he has pitched better than his ERA, with a 4.30 FIP and an unlucky .346 average on balls in play. In addition, his ERA does stand about 1.5 runs better at home. Last season he flashed a 3.02 ERA in San Francisco, and a 4.24 on the road.
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</article>Meanwhile, the Dodgers' 19-year-old young gun, Julio Urias, has yet to live up to his billing with a 6.94 ERA. Still, he did face the Mets and Cubs on the road in his first two starts and pitched much better at home against the Rockies last out. He'll be on a pitch count as the Dodgers' bullpen will need to fill out roughly half the game. Both teams continue to be without the services of two key batsmen in Hunter Pence andYasiel Puig. Also note that shadows will most likely be an issue for the hitters approximately 45 minutes into the contest.
Again, there are some ugly ERAs for the two starting pitchers, but it's factored into the number.
ESPN Chalk pick: under 8 (-105)
Dave Tuley: This was a close call with the over/under set at 8, but I like what Peta said about the oddsmakers probably having Peavy rated at least half a run higher than he should be. I like the value in going under 8 runs when it should be 7.5 at most.
Besides, the Dodgers are comfortable playing low-scoring games, hitting the under at 35-25-1 (58.3 percent). The Giants are 31-31-1 on unders, but the under is 5-4 between these two teams in the season series after going 6-4-1 last year, so again there's a tendency for lower-scoring games. And finally, home plate umpire Mike Muchlinski is 5-5 with over/unders this year, but he was 16-13-1 to the under last year and 19-10-1 in 2014 and 15-9 in 2013. That's 55-37-2 (59.8 percent) over the last three-plus years, so I feel he'll help our pitchers more than hurt them.
ESPN Chalk pick: under 8 (-105)
ESPN INSIder
ESPN Chalk's team of MLB handicappers will try to help end your baseball betting week on a winning note by breaking down the Los Angeles Dodgers vs.San Francisco Giants matchup on Sunday at 8:30 p.m. ET.
This is the rubber game of a three-game weekend set as the Dodgers won Friday night, but the Giants prevailed 5-4 in 10 innings to increase their NL West lead to four games. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this game with the Giants as -120 home favorites, but it flipped overnight to the Dodgers being favored at -115.
On the season, Joe Peta is 5-3 on Sunday nighters for a net profit of 2.48 units (risking the price on the favorite to win one unit or laying one unit on the underdog) while Dave Tuley is 3-2 for a net profit of 0.7 units on over/unders. Erin Rynning joins the rotation this week and is on the same side as Tuley on the total while Peta looks at the straight-up winner.
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Over/under: 8 (O -115, U -105)
PickCenter Intel
Joe Peta: With a bit more than one-third of the season complete, the National League is shaping up to have two, perhaps three, separate one-on-one battles for the postseason: St. Louis vs. Pittsburgh for a wild-card berth and Los Angeles vs. San Francisco for the NL West title. (If the Miami Marlins can find a way to beat the Atlanta Braves, they could crash the third potential divisional battle between the Mets and the Nationals.) All wins, therefore, are not created equal; the 18 most important games the Giants play this year are against the Dodgers.
That makes Bruce Bochy's handling of the rotation this week all the more curious. Had the Giants pitched Madison Bumgarner on normal rest Tuesday, he could have thrown again Sunday night. Instead, this past Tuesday, the Giants gave a spot start to Albert Suarez, pushing Bumgarner to Wednesday, which means Sunday Night Baseball viewers will get their second straight look at Jake Peavy. To me, this is a big strategic error. It can't possibly alter Peavy's effectiveness if he pitches tonight on six days' rest instead of tomorrow night versus the Milwaukee Brewers on seven, but it matters a ton to their opponents. In my eye, by blundering the rotation order, the Giants may not have materially changed their odds of winning Sunday night's and Monday night's game, but they have absolutely raised the Dodgers' chances (and conversely lowered the Brewers').
I wrote about Peavy in this space last week, so a recap is sufficient: He has his flaws and is unquestionably on the downside of his career, but as long as the Giants are playing top-tier defense, he should allow runs at a sub 4.00 ERA rate. Oddsmakers appear to price him at least half-a-run higher. That's going to lead me to back him again tonight -- but it comes with a huge caveat, as explained below. But first, a look at his pitching counterpart.
Julio Urias made his major league debut three starts ago as a much-heralded 19-year-old. In his first start he went off as a plus-100 dog, which wouldn't necessarily be notable until you learn it was on the road -- vs. Jacob deGrom! Clearly oddsmakers have made a huge adjustment as Urias is a bigger underdog tonight vs. Peavy than he was against deGrom. By my model, though, the Giants are not only a better offensive team than the Dodgers -- making their short odds at home an appealing proposition -- but better than the Mets as well, which puts some of the apparent downgrade of Urias in context. However, the evaluation of their offense is only valid if Buster Posey starts.
The problem is that Bochy often rests Posey with Peavy on the mound. With the left-handed Urias starting, there's certainly a chance Posey will start at first base, giving Brandon Belt the night off, in contrast to last week's contest, when Posey spent the night on the bench. That's the caveat for Sunday night's game. If Buster Posey starts, the Giants are the play. If not, it's a pass.
ESPN Chalk pick: San Francisco Giants +105 (if Posey starts, otherwise pass)
Erin Rynning: The numbers are troubling for both starting pitchers in this rivalry showdown. Peavy sports a high 6.41 ERA on the season. There's no question his stuff has regressed from his Cy Young 2007 season. In fact, his average fastball velocity in 2007 was near 95 mph, while he's just a tick under 90 mph this season. The analytics do show he has pitched better than his ERA, with a 4.30 FIP and an unlucky .346 average on balls in play. In addition, his ERA does stand about 1.5 runs better at home. Last season he flashed a 3.02 ERA in San Francisco, and a 4.24 on the road.
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</article>Meanwhile, the Dodgers' 19-year-old young gun, Julio Urias, has yet to live up to his billing with a 6.94 ERA. Still, he did face the Mets and Cubs on the road in his first two starts and pitched much better at home against the Rockies last out. He'll be on a pitch count as the Dodgers' bullpen will need to fill out roughly half the game. Both teams continue to be without the services of two key batsmen in Hunter Pence andYasiel Puig. Also note that shadows will most likely be an issue for the hitters approximately 45 minutes into the contest.
Again, there are some ugly ERAs for the two starting pitchers, but it's factored into the number.
ESPN Chalk pick: under 8 (-105)
Dave Tuley: This was a close call with the over/under set at 8, but I like what Peta said about the oddsmakers probably having Peavy rated at least half a run higher than he should be. I like the value in going under 8 runs when it should be 7.5 at most.
Besides, the Dodgers are comfortable playing low-scoring games, hitting the under at 35-25-1 (58.3 percent). The Giants are 31-31-1 on unders, but the under is 5-4 between these two teams in the season series after going 6-4-1 last year, so again there's a tendency for lower-scoring games. And finally, home plate umpire Mike Muchlinski is 5-5 with over/unders this year, but he was 16-13-1 to the under last year and 19-10-1 in 2014 and 15-9 in 2013. That's 55-37-2 (59.8 percent) over the last three-plus years, so I feel he'll help our pitchers more than hurt them.
ESPN Chalk pick: under 8 (-105)
