[h=1]How to bet NBA Finals Game 5[/h]
LAS VEGAS -- The Cleveland Cavaliers clawed their way back into the NBA Finals at 2-1, but then the Golden State Warriors won Friday to go up 3-1 and get within a game of clinching their second straight title.
Here at ESPN Chalk, we're just as concerned with the betting results of the games, and the Warriors' 108-97 victory in Game 4 at Cleveland was the first game in the series won by the road team and underdog, as home teams and favorites are still 3-1 straight up and against the spread. The game stayed just under the total of 207 points thanks to the Cavaliers dribbling out their last possession. Unders are also 3-1 in the series.
For Monday's Game 5 back in Oakland, the Warriors opened as 7.5-point home favorites at some big offshore books and the early money pushed the line to 8, which is the line at which most Las Vegas books opened. However, on Saturday the line got bet back down to 7.5 and was at 7 at most Vegas books on Sunday morning as speculation grew that Draymond Green could be suspended for Game 5. The Westgate Las Vegas and Pinnacle offshore book led the move to 6.5 before Green's suspension was announced and the line dropped to Warriors -6 as of this writing. The over/under, which opened at 206.5 at most books, is down to 205.
My ESPN Chalk colleague Erin Rynning and I were both on the Warriors in Game 4 and I also hit my lean on the under (after sweating out the end of the game).
Here's our takes for Monday night's Game 5 (9 p.m. ET on ABC):
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[h=2]
Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers
[/h](Golden State leads 3-1)
Westgate series price: Warriors -2,000/Cavaliers +1,000
Westgate Game 5 lines: Warriors -6; over/under 205 (money line: Warriors -300/Cavs +250)
PickCenter intel
Tuley: I agree with the money coming in on the Cavaliers plus the points. In fact, when picking the Warriors in our Game 4 betting guide, I went out of my way to mention that I would be back on the Cavs plus the points here.
We've seen the past few games zig-zag winners back and forth, so I see no reason why the Cavaliers can't bounce back again -- and their 120-90 win in Game 3 certainly shows they're capable of putting it all together, or at least stay within the number despite this series of blowouts. The Cavs need to do the obvious things right: have LeBron James attack the basket more, hit their 3-pointers, continue to contain Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson and limit turnovers. Their failings in this series aren't a lack of ability but rather lack of execution. If they play like they did in Game 3, they can extend the series.
Now, I'm not as confident that the Cavaliers can come back to win the series -- and I'm sure you've heard by now that teams trailing 3-1 in the NBA Finals are 0-for-32 -- but if you are thinking that way, I wouldn't take the 10-1 currently being offered (for starters, taking 10-1 on something that is 0-32 isn't get much value). The better bet would be to take the money line of around +220 in Game 5, then roll your winnings in the Cleveland money line for Game 6 -- which would be around -130 -- and do the same for Game 7. If the Cavs were to run the table, that would pay around 18-1 depending on the Game 7 money line instead of the 10-1 future price.
As for the over/under, I've gone 3-1 so far in the Finals with the under and I'm going to take my money and run. After Game 1 closed at 211, it's now been adjusted down to 205 and we've seen the past two games turn into coin-flips, so it's a good time to stop.
Game 5 pick: Cavaliers +6
Rynning: Solid job by the Warriors bouncing back in Game 4 to put a firm grasp on the series. Perhaps understated for the Warriors was their continued subtle adjustments within their personnel to give them an edge. However, the Warriors have let up a number of times in the playoffs, including Game 3. Certainly one should be on guard for another soft spot and an overconfident Golden State club.
There will be no quit in the Cavaliers and LeBron James. I thought Game 4 was much closer than the final score would indicate. In a make-or-miss league, the Warriors simply out-shot the Cavaliers. Still, we were shown a supreme warning sign in Cleveland wearing down during Game 4 and resorting to stagnation on offense. Quite simply, I have no opinion on the side for this one.
Meanwhile, and certainly not shockingly after much talk of a quickened pace from the Cavaliers, Game 4 was easily the slowest game of the series. If they're looking for more pace it might last a game or two, but at this stage teams revert to what they truly are. There's a palpable tug-of-war within the Cavaliers' locker room on the shape of their pace of play. Once again, with a couple small leans to the over earlier in the series and the pace bogging down last game, I just don't see anywhere to go with the posted total.
Game 5 pick: Pass
- Dave Tuley
- Erin Rynning
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The Cleveland Cavaliers clawed their way back into the NBA Finals at 2-1, but then the Golden State Warriors won Friday to go up 3-1 and get within a game of clinching their second straight title.
Here at ESPN Chalk, we're just as concerned with the betting results of the games, and the Warriors' 108-97 victory in Game 4 at Cleveland was the first game in the series won by the road team and underdog, as home teams and favorites are still 3-1 straight up and against the spread. The game stayed just under the total of 207 points thanks to the Cavaliers dribbling out their last possession. Unders are also 3-1 in the series.
For Monday's Game 5 back in Oakland, the Warriors opened as 7.5-point home favorites at some big offshore books and the early money pushed the line to 8, which is the line at which most Las Vegas books opened. However, on Saturday the line got bet back down to 7.5 and was at 7 at most Vegas books on Sunday morning as speculation grew that Draymond Green could be suspended for Game 5. The Westgate Las Vegas and Pinnacle offshore book led the move to 6.5 before Green's suspension was announced and the line dropped to Warriors -6 as of this writing. The over/under, which opened at 206.5 at most books, is down to 205.
My ESPN Chalk colleague Erin Rynning and I were both on the Warriors in Game 4 and I also hit my lean on the under (after sweating out the end of the game).
Here's our takes for Monday night's Game 5 (9 p.m. ET on ABC):
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[h=2]
Westgate series price: Warriors -2,000/Cavaliers +1,000
Westgate Game 5 lines: Warriors -6; over/under 205 (money line: Warriors -300/Cavs +250)
PickCenter intel
Tuley: I agree with the money coming in on the Cavaliers plus the points. In fact, when picking the Warriors in our Game 4 betting guide, I went out of my way to mention that I would be back on the Cavs plus the points here.
We've seen the past few games zig-zag winners back and forth, so I see no reason why the Cavaliers can't bounce back again -- and their 120-90 win in Game 3 certainly shows they're capable of putting it all together, or at least stay within the number despite this series of blowouts. The Cavs need to do the obvious things right: have LeBron James attack the basket more, hit their 3-pointers, continue to contain Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson and limit turnovers. Their failings in this series aren't a lack of ability but rather lack of execution. If they play like they did in Game 3, they can extend the series.
Now, I'm not as confident that the Cavaliers can come back to win the series -- and I'm sure you've heard by now that teams trailing 3-1 in the NBA Finals are 0-for-32 -- but if you are thinking that way, I wouldn't take the 10-1 currently being offered (for starters, taking 10-1 on something that is 0-32 isn't get much value). The better bet would be to take the money line of around +220 in Game 5, then roll your winnings in the Cleveland money line for Game 6 -- which would be around -130 -- and do the same for Game 7. If the Cavs were to run the table, that would pay around 18-1 depending on the Game 7 money line instead of the 10-1 future price.
As for the over/under, I've gone 3-1 so far in the Finals with the under and I'm going to take my money and run. After Game 1 closed at 211, it's now been adjusted down to 205 and we've seen the past two games turn into coin-flips, so it's a good time to stop.
Game 5 pick: Cavaliers +6
Rynning: Solid job by the Warriors bouncing back in Game 4 to put a firm grasp on the series. Perhaps understated for the Warriors was their continued subtle adjustments within their personnel to give them an edge. However, the Warriors have let up a number of times in the playoffs, including Game 3. Certainly one should be on guard for another soft spot and an overconfident Golden State club.
There will be no quit in the Cavaliers and LeBron James. I thought Game 4 was much closer than the final score would indicate. In a make-or-miss league, the Warriors simply out-shot the Cavaliers. Still, we were shown a supreme warning sign in Cleveland wearing down during Game 4 and resorting to stagnation on offense. Quite simply, I have no opinion on the side for this one.
Meanwhile, and certainly not shockingly after much talk of a quickened pace from the Cavaliers, Game 4 was easily the slowest game of the series. If they're looking for more pace it might last a game or two, but at this stage teams revert to what they truly are. There's a palpable tug-of-war within the Cavaliers' locker room on the shape of their pace of play. Once again, with a couple small leans to the over earlier in the series and the pace bogging down last game, I just don't see anywhere to go with the posted total.
Game 5 pick: Pass
