Way-Too-Early 2016-17 Stanley Cup value bets
ESPN INSIDER
With the Pittsburgh Penguins defeating the San Jose Sharks in the Stanley Cup finals, the 2015-16 NHL season has come to a close. The coming months will bring the draft, free agency, trades and shuffling of managerial roles, leaving much still in the wind when considering true Cup contenders for next season.
With that in mind, you should look beyond the favorites when making 2017 Stanley Cup futures bets at this point in the year. Why? Consider the Chicago Blackhawks, who open as the odds-on Cup favorite for 2017 at 6-1.
They might win the Cup next year, but those 6-1 odds aren't going to improve enough over the next 10 months to support making a bet this far out -- but the clarity of just how strong a contender they are will. So much can -- and will -- change between now and next April, that if you want to place a bet on a team with high odds, it's prudent to wait until the playoff picture is dramatically clearer in February and March.
Instead, now is the time to pick out those value bets -- teams that have low odds today, but figure to improve greatly by next season's playoffs.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Before this season, I selected the Washington Capitals (16-1) as the best value bet and the Philadelphia Flyers (100-1) as the best long-shot bet. The Caps ended up with the best record in the NHL, and the Flyers surpassed expectations and made the playoffs with a 96-point season. Yes, neither hoisted the Cup and you probably won't strike gold with these early bets because you aren't picking the favorites, but some teams open with odds too good to pass on considering their potential talent.
Let's look at my three best early value bets for the 2017 Stanley Cup.
Note: I strictly looked at teams with odds worse than 15-1. However, theDallas Stars at 12-1 makes for decent value if you believe they will do something about their goaltending this offseason, and the St. Louis Blues (14-1) and Los Angeles Kings (12-1) also bring decent early value. But again, these odds won't change significantly over the next year.
New York Rangers (25-1)
Let's be clear: the window for the Rangers is closing by the day. Their best shot at a Cup was arguably in 2014 when they went to the Finals, and they are now pinned with bad contracts, salary cap concerns and essentially no draft picks. However, they should still be considered a threat, primarily becauseHenrik Lundqvist will be in net. His '16 postseason started with an eye injury and ended with some poor numbers (.869 save percentage over five starts), but he is still one of the best goalies in the world and will be especially motivated.
The Rangers will have to find a way to re-sign Keith Yandle this offseason, and that will most likely come via a trade of Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, or Rick Nash -- if GM Jeff Gorton can work some magic. They will also have to lock up their fleet of restricted free agents, including J.T. Miller and Chris Kreider. A full season with Brady Skjei and the addition of Pavel Buchnevich will certainly help, as well. To truly contend, though, the Blueshirts will have to send one of those hefty contracts out of town and perhaps deal a restricted free agent to free up cap space to make a run at a few free agents.
If they succeed, the Rangers will be a serious challenger for the Cup next spring, and those 25-1 odds are too good to pass on.
New York Islanders (30-1)
The Islanders are coming off their most successful season in decades, winning their first postseason series since 1993 and having four players eclipse 20 goals. The bad news? Two of those four -- Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen -- will be unrestricted free agents this summer. Locking up one or both of them, along with finding some depth in free agency will be the most critical tasks on the offseason to-do list. On the plus side, the Islanders will have some cap room to make that happen. The emergence of Thomas Greiss (.925 save percentage) gives the team two options in net, and Travis Harmonic rescinded his trade request, keeping the blue line strong.
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</article>The Islanders look as if they are ready to make the next step behind superstar John Tavares (33 goals, 70 points), and at 30-1, this is the time to take a shot if you believe in the young team. If they maneuver free agency appropriately, they will be in position to challenge for the Metropolitan Division -- and perhaps, the Stanley Cup.
Calgary Flames (60-1)
Yes, the Flames are a long shot, but they are also the most realistic long shot to make a Stanley Cup run. The Flames have the pieces in place, as long as they find a viable goaltender this offseason. Karri Ramo and Jonas Hillerare primed to be free agents in July, and based on their general ineptitude (neither eclipsed even a .910 save percentage), it seems logical that Calgary looks elsewhere. Should a name like Marc-Andre Fleury become available, Calgary could be a logical landing spot. Outside of the crease, the defense is stellar: T.J. Brodie, Mark Giordano, and Dougie Hamilton anchor a great unit. Up front, Sean Monahan (27 goals), Sam Bennett, Johnny Gaudreau (78 points), Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik headline a quick-paced offense.
Again, it's a long shot, but it's hard to ignore the talent on this roster. Factor in those 60-1 odds, and they might be worth putting a few dollars on this early in the offseason.
ESPN INSIDER
With the Pittsburgh Penguins defeating the San Jose Sharks in the Stanley Cup finals, the 2015-16 NHL season has come to a close. The coming months will bring the draft, free agency, trades and shuffling of managerial roles, leaving much still in the wind when considering true Cup contenders for next season.
With that in mind, you should look beyond the favorites when making 2017 Stanley Cup futures bets at this point in the year. Why? Consider the Chicago Blackhawks, who open as the odds-on Cup favorite for 2017 at 6-1.
They might win the Cup next year, but those 6-1 odds aren't going to improve enough over the next 10 months to support making a bet this far out -- but the clarity of just how strong a contender they are will. So much can -- and will -- change between now and next April, that if you want to place a bet on a team with high odds, it's prudent to wait until the playoff picture is dramatically clearer in February and March.
Instead, now is the time to pick out those value bets -- teams that have low odds today, but figure to improve greatly by next season's playoffs.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Before this season, I selected the Washington Capitals (16-1) as the best value bet and the Philadelphia Flyers (100-1) as the best long-shot bet. The Caps ended up with the best record in the NHL, and the Flyers surpassed expectations and made the playoffs with a 96-point season. Yes, neither hoisted the Cup and you probably won't strike gold with these early bets because you aren't picking the favorites, but some teams open with odds too good to pass on considering their potential talent.
Let's look at my three best early value bets for the 2017 Stanley Cup.
Note: I strictly looked at teams with odds worse than 15-1. However, theDallas Stars at 12-1 makes for decent value if you believe they will do something about their goaltending this offseason, and the St. Louis Blues (14-1) and Los Angeles Kings (12-1) also bring decent early value. But again, these odds won't change significantly over the next year.
Let's be clear: the window for the Rangers is closing by the day. Their best shot at a Cup was arguably in 2014 when they went to the Finals, and they are now pinned with bad contracts, salary cap concerns and essentially no draft picks. However, they should still be considered a threat, primarily becauseHenrik Lundqvist will be in net. His '16 postseason started with an eye injury and ended with some poor numbers (.869 save percentage over five starts), but he is still one of the best goalies in the world and will be especially motivated.
The Rangers will have to find a way to re-sign Keith Yandle this offseason, and that will most likely come via a trade of Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, or Rick Nash -- if GM Jeff Gorton can work some magic. They will also have to lock up their fleet of restricted free agents, including J.T. Miller and Chris Kreider. A full season with Brady Skjei and the addition of Pavel Buchnevich will certainly help, as well. To truly contend, though, the Blueshirts will have to send one of those hefty contracts out of town and perhaps deal a restricted free agent to free up cap space to make a run at a few free agents.
If they succeed, the Rangers will be a serious challenger for the Cup next spring, and those 25-1 odds are too good to pass on.
The Islanders are coming off their most successful season in decades, winning their first postseason series since 1993 and having four players eclipse 20 goals. The bad news? Two of those four -- Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen -- will be unrestricted free agents this summer. Locking up one or both of them, along with finding some depth in free agency will be the most critical tasks on the offseason to-do list. On the plus side, the Islanders will have some cap room to make that happen. The emergence of Thomas Greiss (.925 save percentage) gives the team two options in net, and Travis Harmonic rescinded his trade request, keeping the blue line strong.
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</article>The Islanders look as if they are ready to make the next step behind superstar John Tavares (33 goals, 70 points), and at 30-1, this is the time to take a shot if you believe in the young team. If they maneuver free agency appropriately, they will be in position to challenge for the Metropolitan Division -- and perhaps, the Stanley Cup.
Yes, the Flames are a long shot, but they are also the most realistic long shot to make a Stanley Cup run. The Flames have the pieces in place, as long as they find a viable goaltender this offseason. Karri Ramo and Jonas Hillerare primed to be free agents in July, and based on their general ineptitude (neither eclipsed even a .910 save percentage), it seems logical that Calgary looks elsewhere. Should a name like Marc-Andre Fleury become available, Calgary could be a logical landing spot. Outside of the crease, the defense is stellar: T.J. Brodie, Mark Giordano, and Dougie Hamilton anchor a great unit. Up front, Sean Monahan (27 goals), Sam Bennett, Johnny Gaudreau (78 points), Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik headline a quick-paced offense.
Again, it's a long shot, but it's hard to ignore the talent on this roster. Factor in those 60-1 odds, and they might be worth putting a few dollars on this early in the offseason.
