Fading a Bad capper same as following a Good capper ?

Betallsports

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• #1

I think so

 

cloverleaf

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Betallsports said:

I think so

Click to expand...

Absolutely!

 

Bourn

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Of course

 

pocketrockets

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well it depends... if you fade JC's offshore locks you would be around 24-1-0 which is 97.6%

If you follow a really solid capper you would get 60%-65% at the most and thats really a stretch

 

MikeB

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Umm, Choptalk, you're up

 

X-Files

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On the same subject from the classic threads title started by oldmanTed:

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=360787

Which Is Better - Following Or Fading A Handicapper?"

 

TomGshotput

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If someone is so bad that they lose more than 50% of bets (against typical -110 lines), they will be better off just flipping a coin. Which means they will end up winning 50% of the time over a long enough sample. Which means anyone fading their picks will lose 4.5% of whatever they wager.

 

pocketrockets

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X-Files said:

On the same subject from the classic threads title started by oldmanTed:

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=360787

Which Is Better - Following Or Fading A Handicapper?"

Click to expand...

great find

 

RenoChazz

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Often a losing capper would still lose even if he bet the opposite. With a winning capper you're winning, with a losing capper he has to lose at a higher rate than the vig. 90% of losing cappers are within the vig bubble.

 

boss415

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A bad cappers plays just seem to jump off the page to me and say go the other way. I dont get the same feel with a good capper

 

Bourn

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X-Files said:

On the same subject from the classic threads title started by oldmanTed:

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=360787

Which Is Better - Following Or Fading A Handicapper?"

Click to expand...

Damn dude!! Where you been?

 

The Guesser

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pocketrockets said:

well it depends... if you fade JC's offshore locks you would be around 24-1-0 which is 97.6%

If you follow a really solid capper you would get 60%-65% at the most and thats really a stretch

Click to expand...

It's not just JC, although he's the recent Posterboy for the phenomenon.
Here's my Very Unscientific Guidelines:
If someone posts something as a "LOCK!!!!" All Caps and at least one Exclamation point, it'll lose 95% of the time. Just all CAPS, 90% loss rate. Just a Lock in non caps with Exclamation points, 85% loss rate, and Just Lock with no exclamation points, 80% loss rate.
A Brock Landers Rubber Band play is 100% losers. If you find those, you're set for life.