[h=1]How to bet NBA Finals Game 6[/h]
- Dave Tuley
- Erin Rynning
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- Game 6 of the NBA Finals is tonight (9 p.m. ET, ABC) and it's a game that a lot of people didn't think would be necessary, especially when theGolden State Warriors jumped out to a 3-1 series lead.
The "Warriors in 5 games" was also the favorite in Las Vegas sports books, but the Cleveland Cavaliers won 112-97 on Monday night as 6-point road underdogs.
Even more surprising than the series going this far is the fact that, after home teams won the first game in blowouts, we've had the road teams pull outright upsets in these last two games. Home teams/favorites are still 3-2 ATS so far in the series. The over/unders are 3-1-1 against the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines that we use after Game 5 landed on the closing total of 209 (though the over/under was as low as 205, so the majority of bets were on the over at lower numbers and those cashed).
Yours truly, Dave Tuley, was happy to have the winning side for the third straight game as I had the Cavaliers at home in Game 3, flipped to the Warriors in Game 4 and then flipped back to the Cavaliers in Game 5. After going 3-1 with unders in the first four games, I was glad I made the decision to pass on the under (because it was 205 when my picks were published) as any under bets up until game time would have been losers (congrats to any readers who took that as a hint to jump on the over).<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
For Thursday's Game 6 back in Cleveland, the Cavaliers are 2-point home favorites at 13 of the 14 sports books on the Don Best Sports odds screen, as of Thursday morning. The only exception is the Treasure Island at Cavaliers -2.5 (which was also the only book to open at 3 while there was a split between Vegas books opening at 2 or 2.5). The over/under is 207.5 at 9 of the 14 Vegas books.
Here are our takes for Thursday night's Game 6:
[h=2]Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers
[/h](GS leads 3-2)
Westgate series price: Warriors -450/Cavaliers +375
Westgate Game 6 lines: Cavaliers -2; over/under 207.5 (money line: Cavs -125/Warriors +105)
PickCenter intel
Tuley: We've written often about the zig-zag theory (in which you bet the straight-up loser of the previous game against the spread in the next game) and how it's not as successful as it used to be. Case in point: it was .500 last year and was 32-32-1 ATS during the first three rounds of this year's playoffs.
Well, after failing in Game 2 when the Cavaliers (losers of Game 1) lost by 33 points, we've seen this series zig-zag the last three games as the Cavaliers bounced back to cover in Game 3, then the Warriors won Game 4 and the Cavaliers won Game 5. I had all three, not only because of the zig-zag (which, again, I stress shouldn't be followed blindly anymore) but because the plays also were contrarian to the overwhelmingly public perception of how the series has been progressing.
The Cavaliers are favored at home in Game 6, but I believe the value play is the Warriors plus the points and to clinch on the road. For one thing, even though they're going to be without Andrew Bogut, the Warriors get Draymond Greenback after his controversial suspension for Game 5. That's a big lift. He'll also be back to harass LeBron James. I don't expect King James and Kyrie Irving to both score 41 points each again, and if James and Irving aren't involving their other teammates, it's probably not going to end well.
Despite the back-and-forth aspects of this series, it's still clear that the Warriors are the better overall team and deserving of their second straight title, so I expect that to be the case in Game 6, just like it was in the very important Game 4 at Cleveland when the Warriors won 108-97.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><iframe id="google_ads_iframe_/6444/espn.com/chalk/story_7" title="3rd party ad content" name="google_ads_iframe_/6444/espn.com/chalk/story_7" width="300" height="250" scrolling="no" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" frameborder="0" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; vertical-align: bottom;"></iframe>
</article>As for the over/under, I'm going to pass again as the last three games have come down to coin-flips with the closing total so I'll take my 3-1 record from riding the unders earlier in the series.
Game 6 pick: Warriors +2
Rynning: With a consecutive NBA title within reach, the Warriors fell flat in Game 5 and certainly missed the services of the suspended Green. Golden State missed 18 of 21 3-point shots in the second half, completely opposite of what happened in Game 4.
Clearly, the return of Green for Game 6 is monumental for the Warriors. While they'll lose the services of Bogut for the remainder of the Finals, he has played sparingly and the Warriors will look to flex their small-ball muscle. Regardless, losing the Aussie shortens the already shrinking divide between these two teams. I'll stick to the Warriors side for my selection in Game 6. However, the difference between these two teams has lessened since Game 3, which is concerning, and Cleveland won't be easy to beat on its home court in an elimination game. The Warriors are still the better team, in a supreme bounce-back situation, and their anchor in myriad ways (Green) is back to close out the series. With a few important intangibles on Cleveland's side, I'll keep this to a lean to the Warriors.
Game 6 pick: Lean to Warriors +2
