UFC Fight Night 89 - Betting Info / Predictions

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Main Card (10:30 PM ET/7:30 PM PT, FS1)

Rory MacDonald vs. Stephen Thompson
Donald Cerrone vs. Patrick Cote
Steve Bosse vs. Sean O'Connell
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Thibault Gouti
Joanne Calderwood vs. Valerie Letourneau (at 125 lbs)


Preliminary Card (8:30 PM ET/5:30 PM PT, FS2)

Jason Saggo vs. Leandro Silva
Misha Cirkunov vs. Ion Cutelaba
Tamdan McCrory vs. Krzysztof Jotko
Chris Beal vs. Joe Soto


Preliminary Card (6:45 PM ET/3:45 PM PT, Fight Pass)

Sam Alvey vs. Elias Theodorou
Jocelyn Lybarger vs. Randa Markos
Colby Covington vs. Jonathan Meunier
Ali Bagautinov vs. Geane Herrera

UFC Fight Night 89: MacDonald vs. Thompson preview and predictions
by Riley Kontek - FanSided




Rory MacDonald vs. Stephen Thompson

The headliner should be a barn burner, as former Canadian title challenger Rory MacDonald hopes to smother the title hopes of the electrifying Stephen Thompson. On the feet, Thompson is a dynamo with flashy technique and good power, which has been stopping opponents left and right. His counter-wrestling has gotten better, which is important against MacDonald. MacDonald is tough as nails on the feet, but will need clinch and takedowns to beat Thompson. I think Thompson can win this, but I will go with MacDonald here in a gritty performance.



Donald Cerrone vs. Patrick Cote

The co-main event will be held in the welterweight division, as resurrected Canadian brawler Patrick Cote hope to continue his resurgence against a tough Donald Cerrone. Both men like to bang on the feet, with Cerrone having the technique advantage and Cote having the chin of a block of granite. Cote has moved more to a ground game approach in recent fights, which is fine with Cerrone, who has no problem fighting off his back. This is closer than most people think, but I think Cerrone has more tools to get the job done.



Steve Bosse vs. Sean O’Connell

Light heavyweight sluggers will attempt to inspire a Fight of the Night performance when Canada’s Steve Bosse steps toe-to-toe with Sean O’Connell. Both men are brawlers that like to throw on the feet. O’Connell’s striking defense has been suspect, as he takes too much damage on the chin. That is not advisable against Bosse, who throws serious leather with both his hands and feet. O’Connell can hit a home run knockout blow, but I think Bosse is the better striker and will prove it in finishing O’Connell.



Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Thibault Gouti

Hot Canadian prospect Olivier Aubin-Mercier continues to build an already impressive resume when he takes on France’s Thibault Gouti in the next bout. Aubin-Mercier is a grappler with great positional strategy on the map. When he does get opponents down, he loves to secure the back mount, where his rear-naked choke is almost automatic. Gouti has won most of his bouts via submission, but engaging on the ground with Aubin-Mercier wouldn’t be advisable. The Canadian should take this bout via submission, possibly in the first round.



Valerie Letourneau vs. Joanne Calderwood

Kicking off the main card is the first-ever women’s flyweight bout under the UFC promotion, as former strawweight title contender Valerie Letourneau competes on home turf against now-Tristar Gym member Joanne Calderwood of Scotland. Both Calderwood and Letourneau like to bang on the feet, which could make this a Fight of the Night contender. Calderwood’s short game, which is clinch work, is nasty. She batters opponents with big knees and elbows, which accumulate damage quickly. Letourneau is as tough as they come, so I doubt Calderwood can finisher her, but I will take the Scot to pull this one out, unveiling a new flyweight division in the near future.



Jason Saggo vs. Leandro Silva

Headlining the prelims is an international affair, as Canada’s Jason Saggo looks for a home country win against invading Brazilian Leandro Silva. Saggo and Silva are both well-rounded, though I would say Silva is a better grappler while Saggo is the better striker. This is going to be a close, tough fight, and it’s really tough to pick. I will go with home field advantage in this one, as Saggo wins the striking exchanges while defending takedowns from Silva.



Misha Cirkunov vs. Ion Cutelaba

There is a lot of hype behind young Moldovan wrecking machine Ion Cutelaba, but Misha Cirkunov is the hot hand at light heavyweight right now and is looking to spoil Cutelaba’s debut. Cirkunov is a judo player that has some good striking in his arsenal. He will want to avoid striking as much as possible, though, as Cutelaba is powerful, aggressive and will put you to sleep quickly if given the chance. Cirkunov has the takedown ability to put Cutelaba on his back on control him. If he does, Cirkunov has the superior grappling and can possibly submit the UFC debutant.



Tamdan McCrory vs. Krzysztof Jotko

Surging middleweights collide next, as Poland’s Krzysztof Jotko looks to halt the rise of unlikely contender Tamdan McCrory. Jotko is a grinder that is the jack of all trades, master of none. He is going to have to make this a dirty, grinding affair if he hopes to be successful. McCrory’s sabbatical from the sport has paid off, as he looks ten times the fighter he was before he left. He is a good striker and a danger on the ground, as he has strong ground-and-pound and submission game. Jotko is no easy fight, but McCrory is on another level right now, so he will win and move on to a top-15 opponent.



Joe Soto vs. Chris Beal

Up next are the bantamweights, as Joe Soto fills in on late notice for Kid Yamamoto to take on Chris Beal in a potential loser-leaves-town match. Both men like to bang on the feet, which could make this an all-striking affair. Beal is more of a boxer, while Soto uses a little more variety in his striking. Soto is also a wrestler, though, which is why I think he more tools to win this bout. He uses a balanced attack to get the best of Beal, saving the job of Soto.



Elias Theodorou vs. Sam Alvey

Headlining the Fight Pass prelims is an important middleweight bout, as Canadian star Elias Theodorou looks to regain lost momentum when he takes on the underrated Sam Alvey. Alvey is a big-power puncher who has a granite chin as well. He is not very flashy, but he doesn’t need to be. If he lands a punch, there’s a chance he’s putting you out. Theodorou is a well-rounded fighter who is more of a grinder. He can kickbox, but I think knowing he’s going up against Alvey, he will close the distance and use a clinch-takedown approach. That will work, as Theodorou grinds out a workmanlike decision.



Randa Markos vs. Jocelyn Lybarger

The ladies will square off in the 115-pound division, as Canada’s Randa Markos looks to defend her home turf against invading Jocelyn Lybarger. Markos has improved her striking, but her bread and butter continues to be utilizing wrestling and top-game grappling. Lybarger has a similar skill set, though I would say she’s a step behind Markos at this point. This will be a close bout, but I think Markos will use home field advantage, a strength advantage and grit to win a close decision.



Jonathan Meunier vs. Colby Covington

Late notice brings opportunity for Canadian Jonathan Meunier, who steps up for Alex Garcia to take on American Top Team’s Colby Covington. Covington is a wrestler who looks for takedowns early and often. It’s obvious that’s what he wants to do in every fight, it’s just a matter of stopping him. Than there’s Meunier, a 7-0 Canadian who has finished every fight he’s been in as a pro. Five of those seven are by TKO or knockout, which means he will want to keep Covington on the feet. That won’t happen though, as Covington plants Meunier on the mat and finishes him with a submission or ground-and-pound.



Ali Bagautinov vs. Geane Herrera

A former UFC title challenger will lead off the card in the flyweight division, as Ali Bagautinov continues his march back toward the title picture against the underrated Geane Herrera. Bagautinov is a well-rounded fighter, tough and aggressive. He will throw heavy leather on the feet or secure a takedown, where he can then overwhelm you on the mat. Herrera is tough as nails and will be a tough matchup. He prefers the mat game, where he has a solid submission arsenal. It will be tough to put Bagautinov on the mat, though. That’s why I think Bagautinov takes this one, likely a convincing decision.

'Ottawa' Fight Pass 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 1
By Patrick L. Stumberg - MMA Mania




185 lbs.: Elias Theodorou vs. Sam Alvey

The ever-stylish Elias Theodorou (11-1) tore through The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "Nations" and brought that momentum with him into UFC itself, where he won his first three bouts with two (technical) knockout stoppages. In Dec. 2015, however, he wilted under Thiago Santos’ striking onslaught en route to a unanimous decision loss.

He’s knocked out five opponents overall.

Despite badly underperforming in his Octagon debut, Sam Alvey (26-7) quickly established himself as a force to be reckoned with three-straight first-round knockouts, one of which earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. Said streak came to a dramatic end last August when his habitual slow start allowed Derek Brunson to batter him into submission in the first round.

He was set to fight Daniel Sarafian early this year before suffering a broken jaw during training.

Alvey’s charming and hits ridiculously hard, but that loss to Brunson better have lit a fire under him. The man just lets his opponents get away with far too much before unleashing his own offense, turning far too many of his fights into a race against time to make up for all the ground he lost with a last-second knockout.

So, in short, I’m not terribly confident in my pick.

Alvey is a serious step up from the likes of Sheldon Westcott and Bruno Santos and, while he doesn’t have Santos’ striking variety or body assault, I’m not sure Theodorou can take what the Smiling One can dish out. Alvey spends on a round and a half on the wrong end of a well-rounded attack before turning things around with a barrage of power punches.

Prediction: Alvey by second-round technical knockout



115 lbs.: Randa Markos vs. Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger

A pair of major upsets over Tecia Torres and Felice Herrig took Randa Markos (5-3) to TUF 20 semifinals, where she fell to the surging Rose Namajunas like so many of her fellows. In UFC proper, she’s sandwiched a decision over Aisling Daly between losses to castmate Jessica Penne and rising contender Karolina Kowalkiewicz.

Three of her five wins have come by armbar.

The towering Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (6-2) took out former Bellator champion Zoila Frausto in Oct. 2015 winning the RFA title and earning her a crack at the world’s largest fight promotion. Two months later at UFC 194, she stepped in against Tecia Torres on short notice and put forth a solid effort despite ultimately losing a unanimous decision.

She stands two inches taller than Markos at 5’7."

If Randa Markos fights intelligently, she ought to win in a landslide. Her wrestling is more than adequate to offset Jones-Lybarger’s strength and the latter’s utter lack of striking defense should make Markos’ booming right hand a terrific weapon. That’s a considerable "if," though, as Markos can sometimes fail to notice which disparate aspect of her game is best-suited for the situation.

Still, Jones-Lybarger has little to offer besides pressure and decent power. Markos lands enough right-hand bombs and takedowns to score a wide decision.

Prediction: Markos by unanimous decision



170 lbs.: Colby Covington vs. Jonathan Meunier

American Top Team’s Colby Covington (8-1) absolutely demolished Anying Wang in his promotional debut, then followed that up with a submission of TUF: "Brazil 2" competitor Wagner Gomes and a decision over veteran Mike Pyle. His fourth bout pitted him against fellow prospect Warlley Alves, who punished an overzealous takedown attempt with a vicious guillotine eighty-one seconds in.

"Chaos" has submitted four opponents, not counting the one who tapped to strikes.

Tristar Quebec’s Jonathan Meunier (7-0) has seen the second round just once in his professional career, stopping all seven of his foes. He competed just last month, earning his second career submission with a rear-naked choke of Francis Charbonneau.

He replaces the injured Alex Garcia on short notice.

I can’t find any recent footage of Meunier, but if it exists, it better be damn impressive. Covington is an absolute powerhouse of a wrestler with quality cardio, a step above anyone Meunier’s fought before. I had him tabbed to beat Garcia and I expect him to dispatch the lanky Quebecois with far greater ease.

Meunier’s history of rapid wins may work against him as Covington pushes his conditioning to the limit, a hazard only exacerbated by the late notice. "Chaos" rebounds from his first career loss with a dominant performance, grinding his foe down before tapping him in the second.

Prediction: Covington by second-round submission



125 lbs.: Ali Bagautinov vs. Geane Herrera

Ali Bagautinov (13-4) -- alternately known as "Puncher," "King" or both -- brought an 11-fight win streak into his title shot against Demetrious Johnson, which failed to save him from a one-sided decision loss and subsequent suspension for PEDs. He returned to action almost 16 months later, losing a decision to Joseph Benavidez in Houston.

He’s knocked out five opponents and submitted another four.

Geane Herrera (9-1) took elite prospect Ray Borg the distance in his UFC debut in a game but losing effort. Four months later, "La Pulga" -- or "The Flea" for the gringos among you -- squared off with fellow young gun Joby Sanchez and knocked the striker out in the second round.

Five of his nine pro wins have come by submission.

Drugs aside, Bagautinov is a terribly frustrating fighter to follow. He has excellent wrestling and some serious power in his hands, but his poor ringcraft and lack of volume lead to regular underperformance. Though Herrera doesn’t present any difficulties that Bagautinov hasn’t overcome in the past, there’s a very real possibility that the former title challenger gives the fight away.

Still, Bagautinov is the better striker and wrestler overall. Expect him to potshot his way to either a wide decision or, should he decide to fully engage, a knockout midway through.

Prediction: Bagautinov by unanimous decision

Breakdown - Rory MacDonald vs Stephen Thompson - UFC Fight Night 89
from Rapid MMA



Stephen Thompson has a karate/kickboxing hybrid style. He is precise with his strikes and outputs at a high volume. He works best at long range or kickboxing range because his entire style is based off his kicks. He likes to stand southpaw and create distance with the lead leg. He switches to orthodox when he does the "karate blitz", for the most part. When standing southpaw, he puts weight on his back leg. When he stands orthodox, the weight is more evenly distributed. Did everyone happen to forget these details?

I have a theory. We've been seeing plenty of underdogs rise to the occasion as of late. I think this has caused a shift not only in Vegas but the MMA community as a whole. Stephen Thompson is good but I haven't found one website that can provide one solid reason on HOW he can beat Rory MacDonald. If there was a convincing argument, I'd listen and take that into account. Maybe I'll provide one.

When studying Stephen Thompson, I've noticed one common theme. He doesn't perform well in boxing range. When pressured against the cage, you'll notice Thompson tries to blitz forward with a barrage of strikes, then angle out to his left. The first opponent to accidentally discover this was Jake Ellenberger. He dropped Thompson coming forward with a counter right hand. This isn't the only time. Robert Whittaker also had success with the right hand and right uppercut. Johny Hendricks was able to catch Thompson veering off and hit him with a solid right hand. Of course, all these fights Thompson ended up winning but that's because these fighters are not putting emphasis on their footwork. Rushing in and moving straight back is exactly what Thompson wants you to do. Matt Brown had a lot of success because of his relentless pressure, albeit sloppy but that's how he fights. He's a brawler.

Robert Whittaker also exposed something else, the jab. Whittaker had great success utilizing the step-in jab which in turn set up a few solid right hands. The jab pressured Thompson against the fence and that's when we saw Thompson blitz forward once again to escape. Stephen Thompson needs space to perform and without it you begin to see him fall apart.

So... who is well rounded, has a great jab, a stinging right hand, good footwork and can pressure fighters? Who is excellent at reading patterns? Who is a calculated tactician? Who has fought the elite? Who is young and hungry?

Rory MacDonald.

Not only this but his coach, Firas Zahabi, is known for putting together great strategies. It helps that he understands Thompson's style. These two have a pretty good idea of what to do against Thompson. People often forget how young Rory still is. Rory was 20 years old when he fought Carlos Condit. Even though he was still green, he gave Condit a tough fight. Every fight of his is different. His stance, his movement, his pace. Expecting him NOT to do this is a big mistake.

Listen, I'm not saying Thompson doesn't stand a chance because he does. I'm the person who thought McGregor could win by 1st round KO. I gave Bisping the benefit of the doubt. I was the one who said Thompson was the most elite striker Hendricks faced. Trust me, I know Thompson can win. However, I think it would be a critical error on Rory's part that would initiate that outcome. For example, if Rory finds success at kickboxing range and decides to play in that space too long, I believe he'll lose. If he gets sloppy and doesn't keep his hands up, he'll get caught. If he tries to catch a kick, which he often does, but the kick doesn't travel where he's expecting - he'll get pieced up. These are solid reasons from studying fights that make sense. Expand on these ideas if you think Thompson can win. Don't give out intangible reasons until after the fight. Many people thought Jose Aldo lost because he "looked" tentative but people forget that Aldo rushes forward sometimes. I'm not entirely discounting these reasons but they're not always the entire reason.

I'm picking Rory MacDonald to win. I think his pressure combined with the counter of his choice, take down or strikes, will determine this fight. I think Rory is more than capable of dictating the range.

When you control the range, you control the fight. How does Rory win? Anyway he wants, in my opinion.



Rory MacDonald, 1st round TKO.

Predictions for UFC Fight Night 89
from The MMA Way



Mark's picks

MacDonald TKO Round 3
Cerrone TKO Round 2
Bosse DEC
Aubin-Mercier DEC
Letourneau DEC
Cirkunov DEC
Jotko DEC
Beal DEC
Alvey TKO Round 2
Markos DEC
Garcia DEC
Bagautinov DEC
Silva DEC


James' picks

Thompson DEC
Cerrone DEC
Bosse DEC
Aubin-Mercier DEC
Letourneau DEC
Cirkunov DEC
McCrory SUB Round 2
Soto DEC
Alvey DEC
Markos DEC
Garcia DEC
Bagautinov DEC
Silva DEC

UFC Will Be Utilizing the Earlier Weigh-Ins at UFC Ottawa



After an overwhelming amount of support at UFC 199, the UFC will once again be holding earlier weigh-ins. The first time these earlier weigh-ins were utilized was two weeks ago at UFC 199, and the procedure was praised by fighters and doctors alike. The premise behind the weigh-ins being held earlier in the day is to allow fighters to have more time to properly rehydrate themselves, and to be able to do so safely and under the watchful eye of the doctors at the event. This policy was put into place by the California State Athletic Commission back in February. UFC 199 was the first time the UFC has implemented this policy, although it was been used by other organizations, including Bellator. This procedure could be fully adopted going forward,and become the norm for all events.

Although this procedure is not required in Canada, the site of this weekend’s event at UFC Ottawa, UFC president of public relations Dave Sholler announced yesterday that it will be put into place due to popular demand. Fighters will have the opportunity to weigh in at the fighter hotel on Friday from 9 am to 12 noon as opposed to the typical weigh-ins at 4 pm. There will still be a televised weigh-in show at 5 pm that will air on Fox Sports 1. The previously recorded weights from earlier in the day will be kept in secret and read at the live weigh in show. If a fighter should miss weight at the first weigh-ins, they will still follow the same procedure as they have in the past. The fighter will have a one hour window to make weight. Two weeks ago at UFC 199, all fighters on the card except two chose to weight in before 11 am.

Elias Theodorou (11-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’1″ Age: 28 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 76″
•Last Fight: Decision loss / Thiago Santos (12-10-15)
•Camp: Mecha MMA (Canada)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ TUF Nations Middleweight Winner
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ 6 KO victories
+ 1 Submission win
+ 2 first round finishes
+ Consistent pace & pressure
+ Shows in-fight IQ
+ Strong clinch against fence
^ Favors takedown attempts
+ Solid transitional game
^ Positional grappling/phase changes
+ Dynamic kicking attacks
+ Accurate & off-beat jab
^ Often follows behind kicks
– Sometimes exits range w/low hands



Sam Alvey (26-7)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’2″ Age: 30 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 76″
•Last Fight: TKO loss / Derek Brunson (8-8-15)
•Camp: Team Quest (Temecula, CA)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ TUF 16 Alum
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ 16 KO victories
+ 2 Submission wins
+ 12 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Devastating left hand
+ Accurate check right hook
^ Dangerous off the counter
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Solid hips & base
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Good pressure on top
+/-Often fights flat footed
^ Looks to draw & counter


Summary:

Serving as the headliner for UFC Fight Pass is a fantastic pairing at middleweight as Canadian prospect Elias “The Spartan” Theodorou takes on fan favorite “Smile’N” Sam Alvey.

Winner of TUF Nations, Elias has shown much promise and potential since entering the UFC. Coming off of the first loss of his professional career, Theodorou will have plenty of motivation behind him as he attempts to get back on the winning track in front of his fellow Canadians. No stranger to fighting behind enemy lines, Smile’N Sam Alvey will look to spoil Elias’ homecoming. Coming off a tough loss to #11-ranked Derek Brunson, Sam will also be looking to make his way back up the rankings.

This matchup is truly a meeting of two different fighters stylistically. Despite both men starting their careers in 2011, Alvey has managed to stack up more fights at a higher level of competition in the subsequent years. That said, Elias has arguably shown more improvements fight-to-fight, as his natural athletic abilities suggest a high ceiling. A constant mover, Theodorou has been steadily sharpening his pressure fighting applications. Playing all the way in or all the way out, Elias is heavily reliant on his kicks to dictate the range of action.

Demonstrating a diverse array of kicks, Theodorou will follow up attacks with an off-beat jab that he scores with on a regular basis. Although it may not appear like much, these unorthodox jabs often disrupt the perceived rhythm of strikes and allow for Elias to either exit safely, or change the direction of exchanges. Despite Theodorou’s shown improvements of entering & exiting off angles, the Canadian tends to do so with his hands low. As we saw in his last fight with Thiago Santos, Elias struggled with a dangerous clinch fighter who could defend his takedowns.

No slouch when it comes to clinch fighting, Team Quest’s Sam Alvey could make it a short night at the office if he can capitalize on Theodorou’s habits off the break. As we saw in Alvey’s fight with Dylan Andrews, Sam’s underrated wrestling ability & knockout power can quickly turn the tide, even if he is the one with his back to the fence. Although Sam has ridiculous power in his hands, he relies heavily on his ability to counter. Possessing two of the best weapons a southpaw can have, Alvey accurately wields a check right hook coupled with a devastating left hand.

Sam also displays deceptive hand speed on his blitzes but often resigns himself to countering on the outside. Although Sam’s flatfooted style garners criticism, it allows him to counter with conviction in regards to his draw & return stylings. However, committing to the outside in this fashion often allows Sam’s opposition to stick him against said fence, or outpoint him on the scorecards. Whether he is sticking & moving or cage pressing, Theodorou could conceivably do either en route to a victory. That said, Alvey’s solid takedown defense & get-up ability could pose problems if Elias tires from unsuccessful attempts.

Despite cardio being a point of pride for Theodorou, we saw strike adversity and takedown defense take a lot out of the Canadian in his last outing. Not only does Alvey have those similar intangibles, but he also has an underrated gas tank of his own. Regardless of the odds for this fight, I suggest strong caution in playing it as I feel this is closer to a pick’em fight. Either Elias will successfully out-fight against Alvey while engaging in clinches when necessary, or Sam will catch the Canadian transitioning through the boxing range where the American should have the advantage. Although I completely agree with the oddsmakers in making Theodorou the favorite, this particular matchup smells like a trap fight.



The Mixed Martial Analyst official Pick: Alvey – Inside the distance

UFC Fight Night 89 Predictions
from Cage Rank



MacDonald BY Decision

Cerrone BY Submission ROUND 3

Calderwood BY Decision

Alvey BY KO ROUND 3

Bosse BY KO ROUND 2

Silva BY Submission ROUND 3

Jotko BY Decision

Cirkunov BY Submission ROUND 2

Gouti BY Submission ROUND 2

Garcia BY KO ROUND 2

Markos BY Submission ROUND 3

Beal BY Decision

UFC Fight Night 89: Rory MacDonald vs. Stephen Thompson, a Head-to-Toe Breakdown
By Nathan McCarter - Bleacher Report



Striking

MacDonald is one of the more technical strikers in the division, but Thompson is a different beast on foot.

Thompson's martial arts background is lengthy, and it almost exclusively focuses on striking. He has been learning the grappling aspect of MMA since making his debut. Thompson's kickboxing skills are near pristine.

MacDonald will have a slight reach advantage of an inch, but Thompson's variety of strikes will void that. He will attack with the standard punches and kicks, but he will also threaten with rarely seen spinning attacks.

Thompson has won four of his last five by knockout. It wouldn't be surprising to see him finish MacDonald via strikes. This is his department.

Edge: Thompson



Grappling

While both men prefer to stand and exchange, MacDonald won't hesitate to take the fight to the ground.

MacDonald isn't as explosive as the other grapplers in the division, but he still makes nice entries with well-timed level changes. Also, he is very strong. MacDonald has the ability to use brute force to drag his opponent to the canvas.

MacDonald's takedown defense has improved greatly since his UFC debut. According to FightMetric, Thompson's career takedown defense sits at 80 percent (MacDonald's is 88 percent). It won't be easy to get Thompson to the floor, but MacDonald has the skill to put him there.

The most likely grappling to occur in this fight will be a battle for position against the fence. That should favor MacDonald as well. If the fight turns into a grind, it will favor the Canadian, and Thompson will be consistently defending throughout the bout.

Edge: MacDonald



Submissions

The former UFC title challenger has a distinct advantage in the submissions department.

Thompson is out of his depth in this area. The talented striker has solid submission defense, but he lacks the skill level to even come close to topping MacDonald in this category.

Thompson only has one career submission finish. It came in a regional show in 2010. According to FightMetric, he has a 0.0 submission average in his UFC career. He hasn't even attempted to secure a submission. MacDonald only has one submission win in his UFC tenure: his debut. But he has a much more developed attack if the opportunity presents itself.

If MacDonald is successful in getting Thompson to the mat, he should have chances to finish. As this is a five-round fight, MacDonald may get brief windows of opportunity in the later rounds as mental mistakes are more likely to occur when a fighter is tired.

Do not expect an early finish, but as the fight draws on, expect MacDonald to start seeking a fight-ending submission.

Edge: MacDonald



X-Factors

MacDonald's X-Factor: Cage Rust

It's been nearly a year since MacDonald last stepped inside the Octagon, and that begs the question of whether he'll have to shake off some cage rust.

Will MacDonald start slow? Could the time away actually have benefited him after the beating he took from Lawler? We won't know until the fight begins, but it will be a big factor in how this fight plays out. After all, Thompson is anything but a slow starter.

If MacDonald struggles with rust early, Thompson will blow him away.


Thompson's X-Factor: Confidence

Thompson is riding a nice wave of momentum into this fight. He has six consecutive wins, and more importantly, he finished Hendricks, a former champion, inside the first round. He has all the confidence in the world.

Self-belief has shown time and again to be important in combat sports. But Thompson cannot afford to get overconfident.

Any mental error could end his run toward a title shot, and MacDonald is a thinking man's fighter. Thompson cannot get careless because he feels invincible. MacDonald is always dangerous.


Prediction

It's easy to pick the up-and-coming Thompson in this fight. He's been active and shown off some incredible offense. He's the "it" fighter in the division.

I'm also sold on him as an elite title contender. But I'm just not certain he'll get it done against MacDonald.

Thompson is an incredible striker, but he doesn't pressure in the same way that Lawler does. The lack of pressure will allow MacDonald to analyze Thompson. MacDonald can stick Thompson with a jab, time his response and change levels for a takedown. Early in the fight, it won't be as important to score with the takedown as long as Thompson ends up with his back against the fence.

MacDonald will slowly but successfully sap Thompson's energy. He'll score a takedown in the third, and in his attempt to get back to his feet, Thompson will make an error that leads to the finish. MacDonald will stop Thompson's title bid, opening the door for Demian Maia to receive that title shot.

The Canadian crowd will get to see their native son get his hand raised.



MacDonald defeats Thompson via submission in the third round

Fight Predictions from Tapology



MacDonald 55%
Cerrone 78%
Bossé 80%
Aubin-Mercier 90%
Létourneau 74%
Saggo 58%
Cirkunov 87%
McCrory 81%
Beal 56%
Theodorou 63%
Markos 86%
Covington 79%
Bagautinov 87%

UFC Fight Night 89 Newcomer Breakdown: Jonathan Meunier


Prior to each UFC card, Jay Primetown takes a close look at debuting fighters. In the latest installment, we look at Canadian welterweight Jonathan Meunier as he debuts against American Top Team product Colby Covington at UFC Fight Night 89 in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.


Jonathan “District” Meunier

Hometown: Quebec City, Quebec, Canada
Age: 28
Height: 6’3”
Reach: N/A
Weight Class: Welterweight
Camp: Tristar Quebec
Career Record: 7-0
Key Wins: None
Key Losses: None


Background

Fighting professionally for only three years, Jonathan Meunier has fought all seven of his professional fights in his native Quebec. He’s finished all seven of his opponents inside of two rounds.

Strengths
•Really long for the weight class
•Holds opponents down well when able to get top control
•Solid ground and pound

Weaknesses
•Low volume striker
•Likely to struggle if can’t get fight to ground





Match-up against Colby Covington

A tough debut setup for Canadian Jonathan Meunier against Colby Covington. Meunier has found his success thus far in the sport by taking opponents to the mat and punishing them with ground and pound. In this matchup, he’ll need to come up with a different game plan. Covington is a far more accomplished wrestler and I expect the American to be able to score takedowns in this fight with relative ease. While Meunier has a better standup skill set, he has yet to show in his career that he can make good use of it. Look for Covington to win a comfortable decision.

UFC Ceiling

Jonathan Meunier is a rather unproven fighter making his UFC debut. Like many undefeated fighters getting their start in the UFC, the question becomes whether he has real talent or are his results due to facing inferior competition. In the vast majority of situations, it is poor competition inflating results. Meunier does have good size for the division and is affiliated with the top MMA camp in Canada so there are reasons to think he can succeed with time. However, he needs to continue to add things to his skill set and fight better opponents each time out.

Live Dogs for UFC Fight Night 89
from MMA Odds Breaker



Light Heavyweight bout: Ion Cutelaba (+175) vs Misha Cirkunov (-210)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I was hoping Cirkunov would be ridiculously overvalued as usual so I could get Cirkunov at +700 or something insane like that, but I’ll have to settle for +175. I think this is a close fight and I slightly favor Cirkunov to get his hand raised. However, at the current betting odds, I think the value is with the promotional newcomer Cutelaba. I think he should be a +130 underdog, so I like him for a small play at his current offering price of +175. I could see him winning this fight by finish or on the scorecards, and do believe catching Cirkunov with a counter during an exchange and putting him away is his best chance at getting his hand raised.

Gabe’s Call: Cirkunov by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Cutelaba (+175) 1u to win 1.75u


Bantamweight bout: Chris Beal (-120) vs Joe Soto (+100)

Gabe’s Thoughts: Simply put, I think Soto should be a -170 betting favorite heading into this contest, so I see value in him at his current asking price of +100. The former Bellator featherweight champion is the more experienced fighter of the two and has a massive edge in grappling heading into the contest. As long as he finds success with his takedowns, this is his fight, and I see him finding success in taking the fight to the mat on Saturday night.

Gabe’s Call: Soto by Submission (D’Arce choke, 3:31 round 1)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Soto (+100) 2u to win 2u

Fights to Avoid Betting for UFC Fight Night 89
from MMA Odds Breaker


Light Heavyweight bout: Sean O’Connell (+130) vs Steve Bosse (-150)

Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a rare “winner vs loser” match-up in the UFC’s 205-pound division, with O’Connell coming off a first round knockout loss at the hands of Ilir Latifi and Bosse coming off a first round knockout of James Te-Huna, ultimately sending the veteran into retirement. I agree with the current betting odds in that this is a close fight, except I personally think O’Connell should be a very slight -130 betting favorite, with Bosse being an ever-so-slight +110 underdog to win. That makes this fight a “dog or pass” situation in my eyes, and I thought about taking a small stab on O’Connell but I ended up deciding to skip this one and move on to the next. There are too many question marks surrounding both fighters to confidently go either way. If you want to gamble, I think you have to take the dog, but I don’t think this is a fight worth gambling on. Best to sit back and enjoy watching them try to knock each others blocks off! Avoid this one, folks.

Gabe’s Call: O’Connell by T/KO (punches, 4:34 round 1)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID



Middleweight bout: Krzysztof Jotko (+200) vs Tamdan McRory (-240)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this fight is much closer than the betting odds currently indicate and in fact see it as a “dog or pass” situation. I cannot fault anyone for taking a shot on Jotko at 2-to-1 underdog odds, but personally, I am going to opt to pass. While I think Jotko holds value at +200, I think more often than not McRory finds a submission or edges it out on the judges’ scorecards. Needless to say, I am leaning towards McRory for my pick, but as for an official bet, I cannot take him at his current offering price of -240, and can’t quite pull the trigger on Jotko at +200; so ultimately this has to be a fight I avoid at the sportsbooks come Saturday.

Gabe’s Call: McRory by Submission (guillotine choke, 3:04 round 1)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

UFC Fight Night 89 Newcomer Breakdown: Ion Cutelaba


Prior to each UFC card, Jay Primetown takes a close look at debuting fighters. In the latest installment, we look at Moldovan Ion Cutelaba as he debuts in the light heavyweight division against Canadian Misha Cirkunov at UFC Fight Night 89 in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.


Ion Cutelaba

Hometown: Chisinau, Moldova
Age: 22
Height: 6’1”
Reach: N/A
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Camp: Timoshkov Sports Club
Career Record: 11-1
Key Wins: None
Key Losses: None


Background

A national judo champion as a teenager, Cutelaba has been fighting professionally for four years. He’s fought most recently in the European promotion WWFC. All of his 11 victories have been inside the distance.

Strengths
•Aggressive striker with good hands
•Decent athlete
•Works well to get back to his feet when taken down

Weaknesses
•Low level of competition
•Striking is brawling as opposed to technique driven
•Takedown defense needs to improve





Match-up against Misha Cirkunov

A rare matchup between two prospects in the light heavyweight. Cutelaba is the heavier puncher and the more likely to finish on the feet as he’s done in the majority of his fights. On the flipside, the Canadian Misha Cirkunov is the longer fighter with the much better ground game. Cirkunov has certainly been hyped beyond his ability, but he has a clear path to victory in this one. Look for Cirkunov to take the fight to the ground and beat up his opponent there. With that said, Cirkunov will need to be careful in the standing exchanges as Cutelaba is a threat to finish.

UFC Ceiling

Ion Cutelaba is one of the youngest fighters in the UFC at just 22 years of age. He appears to have a solid standup skill set with decent power. In addition to that, in top control he has good control and delivers heavy ground and pound. He’s still quite raw in his development and hasn’t proven himself against UFC caliber opposition. His entry into the UFC is going to be trial by fire. I think he can potentially do well in the UFC, but he will need to develop in order to have some success.

Rory MacDonald (18-3)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’0″ Age: 26 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 76.5″
•Last Fight: TKO loss / Robbie Lawler (7-11-15)
•Camp:Tristar Gym (Canada)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 7 KO victories
+ 6 Submission wins
+ 7 first round finishes
+ Excellent footwork
^ Rarely out of position
+ Long & accurate jab
^ Manages distance well
+ Solid kick acumen
^ Favors right sided attacks
+/-Often heavy on lead foot
+ Good power double takedown
^ Well-timed level changes
+ Superb top control
^ Devastating ground striker



Stephen Thompson (12-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’0″ Age: 33 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 75″
•Last Fight: TKO win / Johny Hendricks (2-6-16)
•Camp: Upstate Karate (South Carolina)
•Stance/Striking Style: Switch-stance / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ 5x Kickboxing World Champion (57-0)
+ Black Belt Kempo Karate (3rd degree)
+ 7 KO victories
+ 5 first round finishes
+ KO power
+ Excellent range management/footwork
^ Plays in & out of striking lanes
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Instinctually intercepts with punches
+ Well-disguised kick variety
^ Favors right legged attacks
+ Improved wrestling (80% TD defense)
^ Intelligently gets up/scrambles
+ Underrated clinch game
^ Solid head positioning/strikes off break
+/-Low-handed standing guard


Summary:

The main event for UFC Ottawa features two of the top contending welterweights as Rory “Red King” MacDonald takes on Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Taking some time off after his fight of the year performance last July, Rory MacDonald will look to get back to his winning ways after a failed bid for the title. Seeking one step closer to said title, Stephen Thompson will look to make another statement on his steady rise through the division.

Although a Wonderboy win could be considered an upset by many standards, the oddsmakers opened up Thompson as the favorite to beat the former title challenger. Despite my official pick, I found this very surprising as most(including myself) feel that this a bad styles matchup for Stephen on paper. A technically sound and disciplined fighter with wrestling ability should be able to pose multiple problems for a free-form Karate striker. However, MacDonald’s path to victory may not be as simple against an outlier like Thompson.

Like many point-Karate based fighters, Wonderboy employs the low-handed approach that is considered fundamentally reckless within the realms of Boxing & Muay Thai. However, this style of conduction allows for a fighter to throw a multitude of strikes at various unorthodox angles. Coupled with technically sound footwork, we have seen Stephen’s natural defensive instincts steadily improve as he now combines his defensive angles with offensive counters. In other words, Thompson will step offline of an attack with just the right amount of range & angle to offensively return with immediacy(demonstrated perfectly in his last fight with Johny Hendricks).

Offensively, Thompson is just as tricky, as he often overloads his opposition with different looks through stance-switching and feints. Although primarily known for his well-disguised and dangerous kicks, I feel Stephen’s underrated punching acumen will be a key factor for him in this fight. Demonstrating almost preternatural instincts, Thompson will intercept his opposition’s oncoming attacks with consistent 1-2 combinations that are similar to a snake in the way in which he enters & retracts. Almost in a dart-like fashion, Thompson will not only move off of his offense, but often sneaks in high-kicks behind his punches(and even behind his opponents shoulders).

I know this all sounds great in theory, but how will Thompson’s skill set play into the game of MacDonald? For starters, I suspect we may see fewer kicks coming from Wonderboy given Rory’s kick-catching acumen/looming takedown threat. Working behind his patent long jab, MacDonald will force his opponent to make unfavorable choices in response to his offense. From range, Rory looks to corral his opposition into crosses & head-kicks, or force their offensive hand into coming forward as he keeps a reactive double-leg at the ready. However, Thompson’s movement can make setting up any offense difficult, as I suspect clean shots may be hard to find.

Although MacDonald has found success against switch-stance fighters like Saffiedine, he may have difficulty translating that success here. Against Tarec, Rory did a beautiful job of jabbing every time Saffiedine switched stances as this disrupted his opponent’s flow and won him the fight. That said, Saffiedine operates within the same striking standards of Rory, as the non-traditional style of Thompson may prove less symbiotic. In fact, I feel Rory’s emphasis on his jab may get him into trouble in this fight. Even though MacDonald does a great job of keeping his feet under him while moving, his tends to keep heavy on his front foot. Although this is a common side effect of a long jab with a low-level, it may fuel the more mobile Thompson’s pull & return style as he keeps lighter on the foot. Not to mention MacDonald’s lack of combination presence, which will likely allow Wonderboy to punctuate the exchanges should he achieve his angles.

Like I imagine most of you suspect, Rory will have his best chances to sway this fight on the ground. A trademark of his early UFC career, MacDonald displays a superb top-control to go along with devastating ground strikes that can turn the tide of any fight. Although he can test, or even take Thompson to task here, Rory may find difficulty in getting him to the floor. In recent years, Rory has shown to be much more selective about his shots in the open, as well as his reactive shots. With MacDonald usually keeping to high-percentage attempts, Thompson may fair well in the open considering that he operates off of angles. Most of MacDonalds offensive shots(and offense in general) comes when he can get his opposition in between the fence and inner-black Octagon lines. With this also being Thompson’s preferred fighting space, one would think this plays right into Rory’s hands.

However, like the initial assessment of on-paper advantages, outliers like Thompson can often put a wrench in things. One of the best lateral movers in the sport, Stephen is more than comfortable capitalizing off the counter or resetting to range. More importantly, keeping within earshot of the cage allows Thompson to defend takedowns using the fence. Making fight-to-fight improvements on his wrestling, Stephen now shows comfort in keeping upright and countering clinches. Proving himself in these departments against fighters like Hendricks, Ellenberger, and Cote, I would not be surprised if he can give fits to MacDonald. Should Rory fail in close, he will need to mind Stephen’s strikes off the break as I see that being a key opening for Thompson. Although MacDonald has all the tools to win on paper, I feel that the alternate operating systems of Wonderboy will dictate the terms of this fight.




The Mixed Martial Analyst Official Pick: Thompson – Inside the distance

'Ottawa' Fight Pass 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 2
By Patrick L. Stumberg - MMA Mania



155 lbs.: Jason Saggo vs. Leandro Silva

Canada’s Jason Saggo (11-2) laid an absolute beating on Josh Shockley to announce his arrival in UFC's Lightweight division, but lost some luster his next time out with a split decision loss to Paul Felder. A torn ACL kept him out of action for all of 2015, after which he returned last March to pound out Justin Salas.

He’s never gone the distance in victory, submitting eight opponents.

Leandro Silva (19-3-1) earned the ire of the mixed martial arts (MMA) public with his "submission win" over Drew Dober, which saw him convince the referee that a clearly-conscious Dober had gone to sleep from a guillotine. "Buscape" has since redeemed himself a tad with consecutive decisions over Lewis Gonzalez and Efrain Escudero, extending his unbeaten streak to four.

He’s never been stopped and has submitted 10 opponents himself.

Silva’s inability to consistently impress has me leaning toward Saggo, whose overall grappling acumen appears every bit as impressive as the Brazilian’s. Worse, Silva can be terribly inactive on the feet, meaning that even if he can stay off his back, he might not offer enough offense to sway the judges.

Saggo looks like a fairly decent prospect -- loss to Felder notwithstanding -- while it’s hard to see Silva ever making his way above the middle of the division. Saggo outgrapples him to a decision.

Prediction: Saggo via unanimous decision



205 lbs.: Misha Cirkunov vs. Ion Cutelaba

Long considered one the Light Heavyweight division’s best prospects, Misha Cirkunov (11-2) debuted in Aug. 2015 with a ground-and-pound thrashing of Daniel Jolly. The following February saw him demonstrate his grappling chops once again with a jaw-breaking neck crank of Alex Nicholson that raised his career submission total to five.

All but one of his nine stoppage wins have come inside the first round.

Moldova’s Ion Cutelaba (11-1) has yet to fight for more than six minutes as a professional, stopping six opponents within one minute. Each of his last seven wins since a disqualification loss have come inside of three minutes, including a seven- and eight-second finish.

This will be his 205-pound debut, though he did fight at a 209-pound Catchweight his last time out.

Cutelaba is big and hits damn hard, but he’s the sort of fighter that Cirkunov should bulldoze. He’s gotten away with a lot of dangerous scrambling because of the level of his opposition and his aggression leaves him wide open for takedowns, two crippling flaws against a grappler of Cirkunov’s caliber.

If Cutelaba somehow manages to keep it standing, he’s well-equipped to overwhelm the Latvian’s limited striking arsenal. He just doesn’t have any kind of experience against fighters on Cirkunov’s level and his wrestling is far too untested to put any faith in. Cirkunov grounds him in a hurry and taps him soon after.

Prediction: Cirkunov via first-round submission



185 lbs.: Tamdan McCrory vs. Krzysztof Jotko

After five years out of the game, Tamdan McCrory (14-3) made a dramatic return to the sport in dramatic fashion with two straight stoppage wins in a combined 1:37. These efforts earned "Barn Cat" another crack at UFC, an opportunity he made the most of with a third-round submission of Josh Samman in Dec. 2015.

He’s stopped 13 opponents overall, seven of them via form of knockout.

Poland’s Krzysztof Jotko (17-1) split his first two UFC bouts before embarking on a three-fight win streak, including a decision over the towering Scott Askham in Dublin. His last bout saw him overcome a slow start to take a unanimous decision over Brad Scott in "The Bear’s" native England.

He will give up two inches of height to the 6’3" McCrory.

Before Jotko’s bout with Scott, I’d have given him a very real shot at stonewalling McCrory’s resurgence. After seeing his awkward attempts at prolonged striking and the amount of time it took him to realize how effective his wrestling was, though, my hopes aren’t quite as high. McCrory’s demonstrated both wicked power and a devastating bottom game since his return -- Jotko will be in serious danger no matter where the fight goes, especially since he’s the shorter man.

Jotko could find early success like Samman did, but it won’t last long. McCrory touches him up on the feet before eventually punishing an ill-timed shot with a submission.

Prediction: McCrory via second-round submission



135 lbs.: Joe Soto vs. Chris Beal

Joe Soto (15-5) got the opportunity of a lifetime in his Octagon debut, a late-notice title shot against T.J. Dillashaw wherein he took the then-champion five rounds before suffering a knockout. He has since struggled to regain the form that originally got him into the organization, losing consecutive bouts to Anthony Birchak and Michinori Tanaka.

He’s submitted eight opponents and knocked out another five.

The quarterfinal loss for Chris Beal (10-2) on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 18 gave way to consecutive wins over Patrick Williams and Tateki Matsuda, the former a gorgeous flying knee that numbered among 2014’s best knockouts. His subsequent drop to Flyweight proved unsuccessful, as he dropped decisions to Neil Seery and Chris Kelades during his 2015 campaign.

He was originally set to face the legendary "Kid" Yamamoto before the latter pulled out because of injury.

Despite being officially winless (0-3) in UFC and stepping in on short notice, I’ve got Soto here. Beal’s just never impressed me. His boxing, which ought to be his bread-and-butter, devolves into wild swings with little provocation and the rest of his game could charitably be described as "adequate." His relative lack of size works against him as well considering that Soto’s historically struggled with stronger opposition and he lacks the power to exploit the former Bellator champ’s shaky chin.

The real question here is whether Soto can wrap something up in transition rather than settle for a well-earned decision. Beal’s crafty enough to survive on the ground and has solid takedown defense, so he should make Soto work for the full fifteen. Soto’s grappling impresses the judges enough for his first UFC victory.

Prediction: Soto via unanimous decision

UFC Fight Night 89 Predictions
from Combat Press



Chris Huntemann’s Picks

Thompson
Cerrone
Bosse
Gouti
Calderwood
Silva
Cutelaba
McCrory
Beal
Theodorou
Markos
Covington
Bagautinov


Vince Carey’s Picks

MacDonald
Cerrone
Bosse
Aubin-Mercier
Calderwood
Silva
Cirkunov
McCrory
Beal
Theodorou
Markos
Covington
Bagautinov

Donald Cerrone (28-7)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’1″ Age: 33 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 73″
•Last Fight: Submission win / Alex Oliveira (2-21-16)
•Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ Multiple Muay Thai Accolades
+ 28-0 as a Pro Kickboxer
+ 5 KO victories
+ 16 Submission wins
+ 13 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Intelligent strike setups
^ Feints, reads, and reacts
+ Devastating head kicks
+ Accurate & intercepting knees
+ Hard leg kicks
^ Most landed in UFC history
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Excellent transitional grappler
+ Favors triangle chokes
– Head often upright
^ Counter/right-hand availabilities
+/-Subject to slow starts


Patrick Cote (23-9)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’11” Age: 36 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 71″
•Last Fight: TKO win / Ben Saunders (1-17-16)
•Camp: BTT Canada (Canada)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 10 KO victories
+ 3 Submission wins
+ 10 first round finishes
+ KO power
+ Heavy right-hand
+ Good feints & footwork
^ Closes distance well
+ Accurate leg kicks
+ Consistent pace & pressure
+ Improved takedown game
^ Favors late round attempts
+ Solid top control
^ Active ground striker
+ Scrambles intelligently
– Dropped/stunned in last 4/5 fights
^ Recovers well/never stopped



Summary:

Canada’s co-main event features a fantastic pairing of kickboxing veterans, as Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone squares off with Patrick “The Predator” Cote. Never one to back down from a fight, fan-favorite Cowboy Cerrone will be going into enemy territory for this bout. Although this will be Donald’s second official fight at 170-pounds, this will be his first time facing an actual welterweight. Originally debuting in the UFC’s light-heavyweight division, Patrick Cote has seemingly had a career resurgence since moving down to welterweight. Riding a three-fight winning streak, Cote will be looking to make a big statement on Canadian soil.

From his hard fought resume to his highlight-reel head kicks, it is not hard to see why Cowboy comes in as the favorite for this contest. However, I see some stylistic flags that I feel may favor his Canadian counterpart. Although most of Cerrone’s losses come at the hands of southpaws, the common thread of struggle in victory & defeat for Cowboy is the way in which he deals with pressure fighting. Most of Cerrone’s primary weapons are only in play when he is the one conducting the dance. When he is not leading, Donald will look to retreat and reset the terms of offense to his preferred range.

The problem with that equation lies within Cerrone’s upright posture, as he will often exit with his head straight up and hands slightly out of defensive position. Against competent pressure strikers, this habit has traditionally opened up Cerrone to right-hands as we saw in his fights with Eddie Alvarez & Edson Barboza. Considering that Cote’s renown for his devastating power and right-hand setups, I feel that punch, in particular, will likely be a key factor in this fight. Initially known for his pocket brawling abilities, Patrick Cote has steadily sharpened his technical kickboxing game.

Consistently stalking his opponents, Cote compliments fundamentally sound footwork with feints in the effort to draw out his opposition’s counters. Considering the kicking acumen of Cowboy, I suspect Cote will double up in the feinting department as he did against previous kicking threats in Kyle Noke & Stephen Thompson. If Patrick can continually force this fight into pocket & clinch ranges, I feel that he should come out on top of most of the exchanges. And if forward pressure and durability fail to earn Cote a fight-changing shot, I suspect it will help him gain favor on the judges scorecards.

In the spirit of winning rounds, Cote also has shown a knack for late-round takedowns that have been a staple in his resurgence. Showing a decent reactive shot, Cote’s most technical improvements come off of his single-leg chains and finishes. That said, Cowboy will be no easy task to take down as he bears underrated wrestling abilities of his own. Although Cowboy has the skills to take down the Canadian, Cerrone has only shown to shoot when stunned as of late. In his fights with Barboza, Alvarez, and most recently Oliveira, Cowboy was hit by said over-hand right availabilities before deciding to engage in grappling.

Regardless of who ends up on top in grappling exchanges, the key junctions on the ground will lie within the transitions. Though primarily known for his guard game, Cerrone is most lethal with his submissions while scrambling in transit. However, Cote has shown to make solid defensive choices in the scramble that may make him difficult to catch soberly. Cowboy’s best chance of hurting Cote may be by catching him on the way in with a knee(similarly to how Kyle Noke did in round 2 of their fight). But if Cerrone fails to hurt the durable Cote, he may ultimately find himself fighting for kicking range and eating shots off of the break.



Official Pick: Cote – Decision

Steve Bosse (11-2)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’11” Age: 34 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 74″
•Last Fight: KO win / James Te Huna (3-19-16)
•Camp: Tristar Gym (Canada)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Boxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Title
+ 9 KO victories
+ 1 Submission win
+ 9 first round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic & explosive
^ Moves deceptively well
+ Improved takedown defense
^ Defends well from cage
+ Heavy right hand
+ Dangerous elbows in close
– Keeps/retracts left hand low
^ Right hand availabilities



Sean O’Connell (17-7)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’1″ Age: 32 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 74″
•Last Fight: TKO loss / Ilir Latifi (1-17-16)
•Camp: Elite Performance (Salt Lake City, UT)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Boxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Title
+ 9 KO victories
+ 3 Submission wins
+ 7 first round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace & pressure
^ Throws with good volume
+ Accurate left hand
^ Often follows up w/right-hand
+ Strong inside the clinch
+/-Willingness to exchange
^ Traditionally takes damage
+ Physically durable



Summary:

In a potential fan-friendly scrap at light-heavyweight, Canada’s Steve Bosse takes on the always game Sean O’Connell. Despite Bosse’s previous bouts of injury and inactivity, the French Canadian is now making a second career run as he currently stands 1-1 in the UFC. No stranger to fighting in enemy territory, Sean O’Connell will look to get back on the winning track after a disappointing loss to Ilir Latifi earlier this year.

A former Hockey enforcer, Bosse has seamlessly translated his natural athletic abilities into his MMA game. Not just a skilled dirty boxer inside, Bosse has also made technical strides in his striking these last few years. Training for a boxing bout before making his return to MMA, Steve has shown improvements in moving with his punches. Bosse’s athleticism particularly shines through in his movement, as he closes the distance deceptively fast. In fact, I feel speed will be the key factor for him in this matchup.

Although Steve may have a speed advantage, that does not mean O’Connell is an athletic slouch by any stretch. The former collegiate football player has shown that he bears the intangibles of durability, power, and a fighter’s heart that can help turn the tide of any battle. Consistently stalking forward, O’Connell throws with an impressive flow of volume, especially for heavier weight fighter. This trudging Nick Diaz-like style has shown it can be costly for O’Connell who often overwhelms his opposition after surviving the initial storms.

However, it is in Sean’s forward moving high-volume approach that usually gets him into trouble. Despite displaying improved head movement off of strikes, Sean still traditionally takes damage by the virtue of his stalking style. With his significant strikes landed ratio nearly identical to his strikes absorbed(6.5 per minute), O’Connell’s fights can often feel like predicting a coin flip. That said, I believe O’Connell brings certain tools that may serve him well.

With Bosse’s particular boxing acumen, the French Canadian demonstrates a heavy crouch upon his entries that he often uses to set up his right hand. However, in leaning so heavily to his right side, Steve subsequently leans his head into any attacks that come from that direction(as seen in his fight with Thiago Santos). Although O’Connell is not particularly known for his left high kicks, Sean does possess an accurate left hook that could see the light of day. Not to mention O’Connell’s patent right-hand follow-ups, which could be especially effective considering Steve’s habit of retracting his left-hand low.

That said, Steve does not make himself as available in exchanges as Sean is a custom to, as I feel the French Canadian’s footwork will help his efforts here. I am a big fan of Sean O’Connell fights as I believe he has all the intangibles to make this the type of war he thrives in. However, his propensity to pressure may play into Bosse’s hands as I ultimately feel that speed will be the difference.



Official Pick: Bosse – Inside the distance

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-2)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’9″ Age: 27 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 70″
•Last Fight: Decision loss / Diego Ferreira (1-30-16)
•Camp: Tristar Gym (Canada)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ TUF Nations Finalist
+ Black Belt Judo
+ Multiple Judo Accolades
+ 7 Submission wins
+ 5 first round finishes
+ Good pace & pressure
+ Improved striking
+ Hard left body kick
+ Strong clinch game
^ Excellent trips & takedowns
+ Solid top control
^ Transition & submission acumen
– Lacks head movement off strikes
^ Often open to counters


Thibault Gouti (11-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’10 Age: 29 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 72.5″
•Last Fight: Submission loss / Teemu Packalen (2-27-16)
•Camp: Big Team (France)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ #1-Ranked French Lightweight
+ 3 KO victories
+ 6 Submission wins
+ 7 first round finishes
+ This camp at Jackson-Wink MMA
+ Good pace & pressure
+ Active left jab & hook
+ Hard right cross
+ Well-timed double leg
^ Changes level well
+ Shows solid top game
^ Competent w/submissions & transitions
– Lacking in high-level competition



Summary:

In another encounter in the UFC’s lightweight division, Olivier Aubin-Mercier squares off against Thibault Gouti. A finalist off TUF Nations, Aubin-Mercier has been steadily improving his game at the Tristar Gym. Coming off a hard-fought loss to Carlos Diego Ferreira earlier this year, the French Canadian will look to get a win in his home country. Attempting to play the spoiler, Thibault Gouti will make his second appearance in the Octagon as he searches for his first UFC win.

Spending the last 8-weeks at Jackson-Wink MMA in New Mexico, it will be interesting to see what improvements the French-based fighter has been able to make. Regardless of those intangibles, Gouti appears to be a fast learner when you look at his 4-year career span and fight-to-fight improvements. Developing a particular taste for the ground game, the Frenchman possesses a solid double-leg as he changes levels surprisingly well. Demonstrating technical intricacies such as shoulder pressure and positional floating, Thibault will look to steadily work over his opponents from topside before attacking with submissions.

The problem with that approach is that it is also his opposition’s specialty, as Aubin-Mercier’s accolades would suggest an on-paper advantage. A multiple-time Judo champion, Olivier has subsequently taken quickly to both Jiu-jitsu and MMA. Teaming up with Firas Zahabi in Montreal, Aubin-Mercier has added to all phases of his game, including his ability to transition in between them. Although he is not at the level of stablemate Georges St. Pierre, Olivier displays a consistent process as he steadily improves each time out.

Although I am not sure how much Aubin-Mercier will elect to stand with Gouti, his recent experiences in the Octagon proved he has the tools and composure to stay competitive. Although Olivier throws a solid left-hand and right hook, his best weapon is undoubtedly his left power kick. Against an orthodox opponent, this kick should certainly have play in this fight. However, that lane of striking is a two-way street that could work against Olivier. Despite not hailing from a background in striking, Thibault throws a solid right cross off of his jab that could find it’s home in this fight.

Regardless of the flow of grappling or striking stanzas, I suspect Olivier will be able to corral Gouti to the fence in efforts to control him. Not only is this a staple of Aubin-Mercier’s game, but it is also a place where Thibault lacks experience given his background in a cageless French MMA scene. Ultimately, I feel Olivier’s grappling is more proven at a higher level as I see that being the deciding factor here.



Official Pick: Aubin-Mercier – Decision