How to bet NBA Finals Game 7
Dave Tuley
Erin Rynning
ESPN INSIder
LAS VEGAS -- Game 7 of the NBA Finals is on Sunday night (8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on ABC), and it's pretty amazing how we've reached this point in the series.
The Cleveland Cavaliers beat theGolden State Warriors 115-101 on Thursday night to force a winner-take-all Game 7. Of course, here at ESPN Chalk, we're just as concerned with the betting results. The Cavaliers didn't just win outright, they also covered as 2-point home favorites, and the game went over the total of 207.5.
Both teams are 3-3 SU & ATS in the series, as every game has been won by double digits. The home teams/favorites have gone 4-2 SU and ATS, as the only times the underdogs have covered (and ultimately won outright) were the Warriors at Cleveland in Game 4 and the Cavaliers at Golden State in Game 5. Unders lead 3-2-1, with the push coming in Game 5 (though that was, to be fair, against the closing line; more bettors cashed with the over, so some people might grade the over/unders at 3-3).
For Game 7, <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">13 of the 14 Vegas-based books on the Don Best Sports odds screen opened with Warriors -5 on Thursday night, with Jerry's Nugget in North Las Vegas being the only one to open at 4.5). By Friday, most books had gone to Warriors -4.5 -- and that was still the most-common line in Vegas on Saturday morning, though the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook was among the books to go back to Warriors -5, as did most offshore books. The over/under opened between 206 and 207.5, and was primarily at 206.5 as of late Saturday morning.</offer>
Historically, home-field advantage in Game 7's has been very strong, even against the spread. Since the 2005 playoffs, NBA home teams are 28-9 SU in Game 7's and 23-14 ATS (62.2 percent). This year, they're 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS, with the Toronto Raptors being the only team not to cover as they beat theIndiana Pacers 89-84 in the opening round as 6-point home favorites.
Yours truly, Dave Tuley, had my three-game winning streak snapped as I went back on the Warriors in Game 6 (I passed again on the under, as I'm sitting on my 3-1 record with unders earlier in the series -- and I'm glad I did, as the past three games have been coin-flips). Our ESPN Chalk colleague Erin Rynning also had a lean on the Warriors. We're on opposite sides in Game 7, so here's our takes on Sunday's decisive game:
[h=2]Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors[/h](series tied 3-3)
Westgate Game 7 lines:
Warriors -5, over/under 206.5
Money line: Warriors -180, Cavaliers +160
PickCenter Intel
Tuley: The zig-zag theory worked for three straight games, but we lost with the Warriors in Game 6 as we expected them to bounce back after losing Game 5. Now, the zig-zag theory says that the Warriors are again the play after they lost Game 6, but we're going to fade that and go with the Cavaliers plus the points in Game 7. Now, I'm fully aware that the points haven't come into play in any of the six games so far this series, as we've had six routs (some more than others). Despite that trend, however, I'm expecting a closer Game 7 with everything on the line.
While most of us had the Warriors as the better overall team entering the series, and it certainly looked that way when they went up 2-0 and then 3-1, the Cavaliers have closed the gap. That's already reflected in the point spread. Prior to Game 5, the Warriors were as high as 8-point favorites before the Draymond Green suspension. The line closed Warriors -6, and now, back in Oakland with Green back in the lineup (though they lost Andrew Bogut in the interim), the line is hovering around 4.5 and 5.
Still, getting the Cavaliers plus the points also includes the possibility of them winning the game outright. LeBron has taken charge of the series, scoring 41 points in back-to-back games, and we've seen time and again that he steps up in winner-take-all games, as he's averaged a record 34.4 points per game in Game 7's, according to Elias Sports Bureau and ESPN Stats & Information. Obviously, we all know how well the Splash Brothers play at home (though we're certainly encouraged how the Cavaliers went in there in Game 5 and won), and this game will likely be decided by how well Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson & Co. shoot from 3-point range -- but again, I'm counting on King James to keep it close.
Note: Before Game 5, I recommended that anyone considering the Cavaliers at 10-1 to win the series should instead bet the money line and parlay the profits during the final three games; I estimated a better payoff of around 18-1. Well, with the +220 available in Game 5, a price of around -125 in Game 6 and now +160 in Game 7, it's paying close to 14-1. That's not as good as 18-1 but certainly better than the locked-in 10-1 odds.
Game 7 pick: Cavaliers +5
Rynning: Once again, since the Cavaliers' embarrassing loss in Game 2, they've basically controlled the series. Give them credit for their first-quarter knockout blow to the Warriors in Game 6 with everything on the line. Obviously, holding the Warriors' juggernaut offense to 5-of-22 from the field and 11 points was too much for the Warriors to overcome. I noted from the opening tip of the series that the Cavaliers needed to ramp up their intensity from their Eastern Conference walkthrough, and they've surpassed expectations.
Moving forward to Game 7, the major questions now exist in the Warriors' locker room. Especially concerning is the back injury to last year's Finals MVPAndre Iguodala. Clearly slowed in Game 6, his meddlesome defense was subdued, and he was hesitant on the offensive end, too.
Iguodala's health might just be the difference in this title-clinching game.
Still, the Warriors are generating better shots than the Cavaliers. During the past four games, as it's been pretty plain to see, they've often found it difficult to convert them. However, at every turn the past two seasons, the Warriors have been able to find that extra gear with their backs to the wall.
The home court advantage they've earned to help fulfill their energy will be vital for the Warriors. After a long, drawn out series, there's no question that, historically, the home floor has produced results. Yet again, give the Cavaliers and LeBron James much credit. They've narrowed the gap considerably; in fact, my numbers make this game right on the number, which makes this game a lean to the Warriors to close out this NBA season.
Game 7 pick: Lean to Warriors -5
Dave Tuley
Erin Rynning
ESPN INSIder
LAS VEGAS -- Game 7 of the NBA Finals is on Sunday night (8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on ABC), and it's pretty amazing how we've reached this point in the series.
The Cleveland Cavaliers beat theGolden State Warriors 115-101 on Thursday night to force a winner-take-all Game 7. Of course, here at ESPN Chalk, we're just as concerned with the betting results. The Cavaliers didn't just win outright, they also covered as 2-point home favorites, and the game went over the total of 207.5.
Both teams are 3-3 SU & ATS in the series, as every game has been won by double digits. The home teams/favorites have gone 4-2 SU and ATS, as the only times the underdogs have covered (and ultimately won outright) were the Warriors at Cleveland in Game 4 and the Cavaliers at Golden State in Game 5. Unders lead 3-2-1, with the push coming in Game 5 (though that was, to be fair, against the closing line; more bettors cashed with the over, so some people might grade the over/unders at 3-3).
For Game 7, <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">13 of the 14 Vegas-based books on the Don Best Sports odds screen opened with Warriors -5 on Thursday night, with Jerry's Nugget in North Las Vegas being the only one to open at 4.5). By Friday, most books had gone to Warriors -4.5 -- and that was still the most-common line in Vegas on Saturday morning, though the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook was among the books to go back to Warriors -5, as did most offshore books. The over/under opened between 206 and 207.5, and was primarily at 206.5 as of late Saturday morning.</offer>
Historically, home-field advantage in Game 7's has been very strong, even against the spread. Since the 2005 playoffs, NBA home teams are 28-9 SU in Game 7's and 23-14 ATS (62.2 percent). This year, they're 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS, with the Toronto Raptors being the only team not to cover as they beat theIndiana Pacers 89-84 in the opening round as 6-point home favorites.
Yours truly, Dave Tuley, had my three-game winning streak snapped as I went back on the Warriors in Game 6 (I passed again on the under, as I'm sitting on my 3-1 record with unders earlier in the series -- and I'm glad I did, as the past three games have been coin-flips). Our ESPN Chalk colleague Erin Rynning also had a lean on the Warriors. We're on opposite sides in Game 7, so here's our takes on Sunday's decisive game:
[h=2]Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors[/h](series tied 3-3)
Westgate Game 7 lines:
Warriors -5, over/under 206.5
Money line: Warriors -180, Cavaliers +160
PickCenter Intel
Tuley: The zig-zag theory worked for three straight games, but we lost with the Warriors in Game 6 as we expected them to bounce back after losing Game 5. Now, the zig-zag theory says that the Warriors are again the play after they lost Game 6, but we're going to fade that and go with the Cavaliers plus the points in Game 7. Now, I'm fully aware that the points haven't come into play in any of the six games so far this series, as we've had six routs (some more than others). Despite that trend, however, I'm expecting a closer Game 7 with everything on the line.
While most of us had the Warriors as the better overall team entering the series, and it certainly looked that way when they went up 2-0 and then 3-1, the Cavaliers have closed the gap. That's already reflected in the point spread. Prior to Game 5, the Warriors were as high as 8-point favorites before the Draymond Green suspension. The line closed Warriors -6, and now, back in Oakland with Green back in the lineup (though they lost Andrew Bogut in the interim), the line is hovering around 4.5 and 5.
Still, getting the Cavaliers plus the points also includes the possibility of them winning the game outright. LeBron has taken charge of the series, scoring 41 points in back-to-back games, and we've seen time and again that he steps up in winner-take-all games, as he's averaged a record 34.4 points per game in Game 7's, according to Elias Sports Bureau and ESPN Stats & Information. Obviously, we all know how well the Splash Brothers play at home (though we're certainly encouraged how the Cavaliers went in there in Game 5 and won), and this game will likely be decided by how well Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson & Co. shoot from 3-point range -- but again, I'm counting on King James to keep it close.
Note: Before Game 5, I recommended that anyone considering the Cavaliers at 10-1 to win the series should instead bet the money line and parlay the profits during the final three games; I estimated a better payoff of around 18-1. Well, with the +220 available in Game 5, a price of around -125 in Game 6 and now +160 in Game 7, it's paying close to 14-1. That's not as good as 18-1 but certainly better than the locked-in 10-1 odds.
Game 7 pick: Cavaliers +5
Rynning: Once again, since the Cavaliers' embarrassing loss in Game 2, they've basically controlled the series. Give them credit for their first-quarter knockout blow to the Warriors in Game 6 with everything on the line. Obviously, holding the Warriors' juggernaut offense to 5-of-22 from the field and 11 points was too much for the Warriors to overcome. I noted from the opening tip of the series that the Cavaliers needed to ramp up their intensity from their Eastern Conference walkthrough, and they've surpassed expectations.
Moving forward to Game 7, the major questions now exist in the Warriors' locker room. Especially concerning is the back injury to last year's Finals MVPAndre Iguodala. Clearly slowed in Game 6, his meddlesome defense was subdued, and he was hesitant on the offensive end, too.
Iguodala's health might just be the difference in this title-clinching game.
Still, the Warriors are generating better shots than the Cavaliers. During the past four games, as it's been pretty plain to see, they've often found it difficult to convert them. However, at every turn the past two seasons, the Warriors have been able to find that extra gear with their backs to the wall.
The home court advantage they've earned to help fulfill their energy will be vital for the Warriors. After a long, drawn out series, there's no question that, historically, the home floor has produced results. Yet again, give the Cavaliers and LeBron James much credit. They've narrowed the gap considerably; in fact, my numbers make this game right on the number, which makes this game a lean to the Warriors to close out this NBA season.
Game 7 pick: Lean to Warriors -5
