Yesterday's Game:
Granderson Loaf in the outfield was Epic. Tie game, runner on 2nd, smart runner focused on Granderson cuz scouting report fully says he will loaf cuz his focus can get weak at times.
Wilma trying to make Home when he should have stopped at 3rd.
The Mets are....
aww fuck it.
Today I don't know what happened and I don't fucking care. Just like The Mets themselves. I simply do not fucking care.
No more Mets for me 'cept as a fade. I hope that these 3 games cost them their postseason bcuz dudes making the $$$$$$$$$ they are should be required to give a fuck.
Yeah. Look back in the thread, before that fucking GRANDERSON showed who the Mets are.
I've bet for years, can count on 2 hands the number of times -225+ faves have cost me meaningless little parlays
ON TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS like Back to Back
first time I can recall that it was bcuz the team itself were complete and total uncaring overpaid pussies.
Full Disclosure: Day Two Mets -225 MATZ parlay was already Dead with Mexico -1/2
but you get the idea.
Fuck. The. Mets.
Yea Dog. I saw what you wrote. Sorry to be redundant but I remember watching that inning unfold last night and thinking that anyone who bet Atlanta was jumpin' up and down while if you bet the Mets you were in your bathroom puking. And I didn't have either.
Sure glad they are not "my" team. Good "bet against" team because of their big name pitchers. Hope somebody on the board popped Atlanta good this weekend.
Sure glad they are not "my" team. Good "bet against" team because of their big name pitchers. Hope somebody on the board popped Atlanta good this weekend.
Notice that a lot of HUGE DOGS are hitting of late.
'specially against teams that don't deserve to be massive -180 or worse faves. Such as The Mets.
My Theory on this is that its due to getting to All-Star Break....Teams with the most pressure to be great, to perform are...
....what?
Wearing down?
Tiring? Losing Focus? OK so its not a "theory" yet but a......thought.
I'd be interested in our Baseball Contest Champion's Thoughts on the matter.
Does seem like an inordinate number of +185ish Dogs have been cashing the past few days.
Should this be a phenom we try and anticipate further 'tween now and the break?
In your opinion?
Obviously taking that +185 against shitty teams like NYM and HOU is likely gonna be +EV cuz 9/10 of the guys on those teams minds are on spending their money rather than actuaally earning that money by performing well at baseball.
Dog, Here ya go.
I keep a hand done spreadsheet for each game in each MLB Series. Pre-series I compile stats to define the recent "class" of each team in the series as a road team for the road team, and as a home team for the home team. In some series one team lays way over the other team IN RECENT CLASS. From there things get tricky as "value" must be defined for each individual matchup, keeping in mind my expectation for how the series should play out predicated on my "class" measurements. In other series, perception does not match up with my recent class evaluations and the lines are off (distorted by false perceptions). Sooooo.... I try to dance around those concepts as defined on my daily spreadsheets to get to my "plays".
Got it? Probably not. But I'm trying to give you an honest answer as to how I handicap Baseball.
As for whether or not teams tail off at this point in the season, I don't know.
At the end of the season the best teams will win about 95 to 100 games and the worst will win about 65 to 70. There will be about 10 teams in those categories. The other 20 teams will fall somewhere between 71 and 94 wins. Point is that the best teams will lose about 65 games and the worst will win about the same number of 65. So on any given night the best teams lose and the worst teams win. I find that Baseball handicappers fall into the trap of thinking that some teams are so good that they rarely lose and some are so bad that they rarely win. That simply is not true. There is value in betting against trhe best teams in spots and there is value in betting on the worst teams in spots. Trick is to find the spots in the matchups for any given series depending on each team in the series recent home or road form, whichever applies.
I'll give you two examples.
Texas just had a series on the road in St Louis. Texas has much better recent form on the road than St Louis had at home. Yet St Louis was favored in all three games, and lost all three. The value by my measurements was squarely with Texas as the wrong team was favored in all three games. And I saw lots of players playing the Cardinals in all three games.
The second example would be Kansas City. Going into their just completed four game series with Detroit they had similar 33-32 and 35-30 records. Detroit had been hot, posting an 8-4 record in their most recent 12 games. But if you looked more closely you would have seen that there was a big gap between their recent home production and their road production. Kansasa City had recently had an 8 game losing streak, dimming enthusiasm to bet on them. However a closer look would show that Kansas City had actually lost all those games on the road, while taking a 9 GAME HOME WINNING STREAK into their home series with Detroit. Additionally, KCy lost their first game in the four game series to Detroit. That set the table perfectly for three Kansas City wins to close out the series all at GREAT prices (+100; -137; -104) for the way Kansas City had been playing at home and Detroit had been playing on the road.
OK You asked. I like your contributions to the board so I've tried to answer. Keep in mind that I got lucky to win the contest. There is NO certainty in this game. I just TRY to take advantage of distortions in the line, generally there because of false perceptions. I try.
As for recent Big Dog winners - yes several did pop in the series completed this past weekend but playing them blindly would have gotten you nowhere. I'll give you the teams and the prices (any game that closed above -150). You do the math.
Friday 6/17/16
Cub -265 vs Pit W 6-0
NYM -214 vs Atl L 1-5 (+196)
NYY -164 @ Min W 8-2
Hou -272 vs Cin L 2-4 (+247)
LAD -174 vs Mil W 3-2
Was -175 @ SDo W 7-5
Saturday 6/18/16
NYY -155 @ Min W 7-6
Bos -177 vs Sea W 6-2
Hou -225 vs Cin W 5-4
St L -175 vs Tex L 3-4 (+161)
Cle -210 vs CWS W 13-2
Cub -248 vs Pit W 4-3
NYM -253 vs Atl L 3-4 (+230)
LAD -165 vs Mil W 10-6
Was -250 @ SDo L 3-7 (+228)
Sunday 6/19/16
Cle -168 vs CWS W 3-2
NYM -171 vs Atl L 0-6 (+157)
Bos -185 vs Sea W 2-1
NYY -156 @ Min L 4-7 (+144)
Hou -198 vs Cin W 6-0
LAD -200 vs Mil W 2-1
Cub -160 vs Pit W 10-5
All lines are closing Pinnacle lines.
Hope I answered your question, Dog. Best of luck to you.
I keep a hand done spreadsheet for each game in each MLB Series. Pre-series I compile stats to define the recent "class" of each team in the series as a road team for the road team, and as a home team for the home team. In some series one team lays way over the other team IN RECENT CLASS. From there things get tricky as "value" must be defined for each individual matchup, keeping in mind my expectation for how the series should play out predicated on my "class" measurements. In other series, perception does not match up with my recent class evaluations and the lines are off (distorted by false perceptions). Sooooo.... I try to dance around those concepts as defined on my daily spreadsheets to get to my "plays".
Got it? Probably not. But I'm trying to give you an honest answer as to how I handicap Baseball.
As for whether or not teams tail off at this point in the season, I don't know.
At the end of the season the best teams will win about 95 to 100 games and the worst will win about 65 to 70. There will be about 10 teams in those categories. The other 20 teams will fall somewhere between 71 and 94 wins. Point is that the best teams will lose about 65 games and the worst will win about the same number of 65. So on any given night the best teams lose and the worst teams win. I find that Baseball handicappers fall into the trap of thinking that some teams are so good that they rarely lose and some are so bad that they rarely win. That simply is not true. There is value in betting against trhe best teams in spots and there is value in betting on the worst teams in spots. Trick is to find the spots in the matchups for any given series depending on each team in the series recent home or road form, whichever applies.
I'll give you two examples.
Texas just had a series on the road in St Louis. Texas has much better recent form on the road than St Louis had at home. Yet St Louis was favored in all three games, and lost all three. The value by my measurements was squarely with Texas as the wrong team was favored in all three games. And I saw lots of players playing the Cardinals in all three games.
The second example would be Kansas City. Going into their just completed four game series with Detroit they had similar 33-32 and 35-30 records. Detroit had been hot, posting an 8-4 record in their most recent 12 games. But if you looked more closely you would have seen that there was a big gap between their recent home production and their road production. Kansasa City had recently had an 8 game losing streak, dimming enthusiasm to bet on them. However a closer look would show that Kansas City had actually lost all those games on the road, while taking a 9 GAME HOME WINNING STREAK into their home series with Detroit. Additionally, KCy lost their first game in the four game series to Detroit. That set the table perfectly for three Kansas City wins to close out the series all at GREAT prices (+100; -137; -104) for the way Kansas City had been playing at home and Detroit had been playing on the road.
OK You asked. I like your contributions to the board so I've tried to answer. Keep in mind that I got lucky to win the contest. There is NO certainty in this game. I just TRY to take advantage of distortions in the line, generally there because of false perceptions. I try.
As for recent Big Dog winners - yes several did pop in the series completed this past weekend but playing them blindly would have gotten you nowhere. I'll give you the teams and the prices (any game that closed above -150). You do the math.
Friday 6/17/16
Cub -265 vs Pit W 6-0
NYM -214 vs Atl L 1-5 (+196)
NYY -164 @ Min W 8-2
Hou -272 vs Cin L 2-4 (+247)
LAD -174 vs Mil W 3-2
Was -175 @ SDo W 7-5
Saturday 6/18/16
NYY -155 @ Min W 7-6
Bos -177 vs Sea W 6-2
Hou -225 vs Cin W 5-4
St L -175 vs Tex L 3-4 (+161)
Cle -210 vs CWS W 13-2
Cub -248 vs Pit W 4-3
NYM -253 vs Atl L 3-4 (+230)
LAD -165 vs Mil W 10-6
Was -250 @ SDo L 3-7 (+228)
Sunday 6/19/16
Cle -168 vs CWS W 3-2
NYM -171 vs Atl L 0-6 (+157)
Bos -185 vs Sea W 2-1
NYY -156 @ Min L 4-7 (+144)
Hou -198 vs Cin W 6-0
LAD -200 vs Mil W 2-1
Cub -160 vs Pit W 10-5
All lines are closing Pinnacle lines.
Hope I answered your question, Dog. Best of luck to you.
No, actually I understand exactly what you are saying. Sports Investing is a term that is used for such. Correctly used or not, thats for minds sharper than my own but in my opinion its accurate. Similar to how Investors in financial instruments would have various things upon which they gauge the potential viability of an investment you have the same, that criteria upon which you gauge Teams.
You do the work. Thus do you reap the rewards, evidence in that Baseball Contest you were able to take down. I'm mentally lazy with baseball. Rather than yelling at teams & players that fail me I should be yelling at myself really for being unwilling to put the work in. To this point at least, too lazy.
For some reason I can find the drive, the focus to put in the work when College Football is involved, I'm able to focus because my sense is that I can get ahold of probabilities of outcome better with that but with baseball I feel I should just be able to pop in, read a writeup or two, check out what some other guys are on and win bets.
Baseball vastly different than the games separated by many more days thus more time to study College Football though so I have a lot of admiration for guys such as yourself who are able to put the amount of work in that you do.
And endure the Grind of Baseball.
Baseball by far, in my opinion, the most plus EV sport of all to bet on, so many more opportunities.
I want to get to where you are, maybe I will.
Thanks for taking the time and having the generosity to share that. :toast:
