Phil Steele Best Early College Football Title Bets

HacheMan · Jun 22, 2016

[h=1]Best early college football title bets[/h]Phil SteeleESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER

As the Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1 odds) look to defend their title, the betting field is wide-open for the team to win the College Football Playoff this season.
I will give you four value picks below that have favorable odds to win the 2017 title, all of which have odds worse than 10-1.
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[h=3]Florida State Seminoles (12-1)[/h]The Seminoles were the least experienced team (No. 128) in the FBS last year, but this year have 17 returning starters. They also have my third-ranked offensive line and ninth-rated defensive line. While the schedule is not easy, they should be favored in all 12 games and get the key game against Clemson at home on Oct. 29. Jimbo Fisher already has won a national title and has a deep team this season. The Seminoles have a legit chance again.

[h=3]LSU Tigers (15-1)[/h]Last year the Tigers rode Leonard Fournette to a 7-0 record and a No. 4 ranking in the polls, but lost three of their last five games. This year they have 17 returning starters, including Fournette and two NFL-caliber receivers inTravin Dural and Malachi Dupre. They bring in defensive coordinator Dave Aranda from Wisconsin. The past three years at Wisconsin, Aranda's defenses allowed just 289 yards per game, the best mark in the FBS, and he has much more talent to work with here. The Tigers get the key game versus Alabama at home and that could determine the SEC West, SEC title and a berth in the playoff.

[h=3]Iowa Hawkeyes (100-1)[/h]I looked at all the 100-1 teams and Iowa is the best choice of the bunch. The Hawkeyes weren't a dominant team last year but they went 12-0 and led Michigan State late in the Big Ten title game; essentially, they were one play from the playoff. This year they get all the tough opponents at home with their conference road games against teams that went a combined 10-30 in Big Ten play last year. They also have eight starters back on defense, including Jim Thorpe Award winner Desmond King. C.J. Beathard is a good signal-caller and currently my No. 5-rated quarterback for next year's NFL draft.
They could be favored in all 12 games and are 100-1? I'll take a shot with the Hawkeyes.

[h=3]TCU Horned Frogs (50-1)[/h]The Frogs have won 23 games the past two years but have been picked as low as sixth in the Big 12 this year. Just two years ago, the Frogs were my most improved team, on my surprise team list and were No. 4 a week prior to the playoff, but just missed out. Gary Patterson knows how to construct a solid defense and they have eight starters back on that side of the ball. While they lose their quarterback, top running back and two wide receivers, I like the replacements. They get Oklahoma at home and could find themselves favored in every other game.
TCU is worth a shot at 50-1, especially with Oklahoma not even finishing in the top 15 the past three times they were in the preseason top five.

rolltide · Jun 24, 2016

they did a whole series with him.... http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id...eisman-season-win-total-bets-more-phil-steele

Best CFB Games of the Year value bets

Phil SteeleESPN Staff Writer

Every season, Las Vegas releases advance spreads on Games of the Year so that bettors can put down some cash on matchups that won't occur for several months. If you have a good sense of a team (or teams), it's a great way to get potential value on an underrated team or fade an overrated team.
Here are my best early value bets for South Point's Games of the Year.

TCU Horned Frogs (+7.5) at Baylor Bears
November 5
EDITOR'S PICKS

Phil Steele's ultimate summer CFB betting guide

Phil Steele gives out his best early bets for the Heisman, national title, Games of the Year and season win totals in this comprehensive betting guide.

The Frogs are an under-the-radar team this year and much better than most people think. They have been picked as low as sixth in the Big 12, but I have them second. Every day, another Baylor recruit seems to be going elsewhere, and three of them were my projected starters. Baylor may be 30-3 the past five seasons at home, but the Bears no longer have Art Briles on the sideline. In that five-year span, Gary Patterson has brought his Frogs here twice; they won 49-21 in 2012, and in 2014, they led by 21 in the fourth quarter but lost a tight one by 3. I think TCU wins this game, and you are getting loads of value with the Frogs at 7.5.

Arizona State Sun Devils (+7) at Arizona Wildcats
November 25
This is a rivalry game, and I like to go with rivalry 'dogs. Five of the past seven games in this series have been decided by seven points or fewer, and the Sun Devils are getting the full seven points here. Arizona State is another team I believe is flying under the radar, as it has just 10 returning starters, but a ton of junior college transfers are joining the ranks in Tempe. Last season, Arizona State dominated this game, leading 31-10 at the half, and could easily pull the road upset this season. Take the generous points.

California Golden Bears (+13.5) vs. Stanford Cardinal
November 19
This is a rivalry game, and as previously mentioned, I like to go with the rivalry 'dog. Cal lost their top four wide receivers, but by the end of November, that unit will be experienced. Stanford has had its way with Cal the past few years, but I like the fact that Cal had a 495-358 yard edge last year. The situation is good for Cal -- Stanford will not only be on its sixth road game in nine weeks, but the Cardinal have lost two of the past three the week after their big battle versus Oregon, and this one will be at Autzen Stadium this season.

rolltide · Jun 24, 2016

[h=1]Best early CFB season win total bets[/h]

Phil SteeleESPN Staff Writer

College season win totals are a good way to gauge the sense of the market and Las Vegas' expectations for teams.
Last year in this article I gave out eight season win totals and those selections went 5-2, with one "no bet" (LSU).
There were three over wins in Miami (FL) over 5.5 (won 8 games), San Diego State over 7.5 (won 9) and Bowling Green over 5.5 (won 10). There were two under wins in Colorado State under 7.5 (won 7) and Buffalo under 5.5 (won 5). The losses were Penn State over 7.5 (won 7) and USC over 8.5 (won 8).
Below is a look at my top eight early-season win totals plays for the 2016 college football season.

Miami (FL) Hurricanes (over 6.5)
Miami draws both Florida State and Notre Dame outside its division, but the Hurricanes play in the winnable ACC Coastal and the rest of the schedule is manageable. Mark Richt inherits 15 returning starters as part of the 24th-most experienced team in the country and Brad Kaayawill be one of the top quarterbacks for next year's NFL draft. Richt was at Georgia for 15 years and despite winning 50 games over the past five seasons, he had worn out his welcome and fans wanted more. He will be a breath of fresh air here and a 10-win season would have the fans excited. Miami is my pick to win the Coastal.

Cincinnati Bearcats (over 6.5)
This may be my favorite play on the board. Despite myriad injuries last year the Bearcats won seven games. They were minus-19 in turnovers, which they should improve upon. Despite their 4-4 mark in the American Conference, they were plus-167 yards per game, which was a league best. They have eight starters back on defense and two quarterbacks with starting experience, are 26-5 at home the past five years and have seven home games. Plus, Cincinnati faces only one team on the road that had a winning record last year. Six of my nine sets of power ratings call for a double-digit win season.

Purdue Boilermakers (under 4.5)
Purdue is the most experienced team in the Big Ten and has 16 returning starters. There is no doubt this is the best team that coach Darrell Hazell has put on the field in his four years at Purdue, during which they are just 2-22 in Big Ten play. Not only do they have just four Big Ten home games (five on road), those home games are versus Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern and Wisconsin. The most winnable Big Ten games are all on the road. The Boilermakers have been outgained by an average of 153 yards per game in Big Ten play under Hazell, so they have some ground to make up and must win five games to beat me here.

TCU Horned Frogs (over 8)
Just two years ago TCU was coming off a four-win season and I had them my No. 1 most improved team and No. 4 surprise team (national title contender) in the country; they just missed making the first-ever College Football Playoff. The Frogs are now off 12- and 11-win seasons, so this win total of eight is low for me. TCU has been picked as low as fifth or sixth in the Big 12 in some preseason magazines, but I have them second. While they have just three returning starters on offense, I like quarterback Kenny Hill and the replacements at wide receiver. On defense they have eight starters back and I rate them top 20 on both sides of the ball. They face only my 48th-toughest schedule and that road trip to Baylor doesn't seem as daunting as it did two months ago. I have them favored in most games and don't see them as more than a 3-point 'dog in any game this year.

San Diego State Aztecs (over 8.5)
On the surface this looks like a tough number as San Diego State has won just seven, seven and nine games the past three years. On offense they have RB Donnel Pumphrey back and my computer projects the Aztecs to average 240 rushing yards per game this year. They have a top-15 defense, with seven starters back. You can win a lot of games with a solid running game and defense, and I don't have them as a 'dog in a single game this year (couple of toss-ups). I had the Aztecs on this list last year and they look like an even stronger squad this season.

Arizona State Sun Devils (over 5)
I understand where the number comes from, as the Sun Devils won only six games last year, have 10 returning starters and are the least experienced team in the Pac 12. Todd Graham has brought in double-digit junior college transfers to give them a more experienced team than they appear on paper. I like the size and speed of this year's team overall. Graham has won an average of eight games per year in his four seasons at Arizona State, while never winning fewer than six, so this number is very cheap.

FIU Golden Panthers (under 6.5)
This number appears high to me. The past 10 years FIU is a combined 37-85, which is an average of just 3.7 wins per year, and they have reached seven wins once (eight in 2011). The Panthers return 14 starters, including quarterback Alex McGough, but lose all four defensive linemen, who combined for 16.5 sacks, and have just 0.5 sacks returning. They have two Big Ten teams in nonconference play and overall CUSA looks to be a tougher league in 2016.

Toledo Rockets (over 6.5)
The last time Toledo lost its head coach, the Rockets hired the offensive coordinator and he coached and won the bowl game and led the Rockets to 35 wins in four years. They have gone the same route this time, as Jason Candle was the head man for the bowl and they beat a very good Temple team 32-17. The last time Toledo failed to top 6.5 wins in the regular season was last decade (2009). They have a top-20 offensive line and a top-20 set of running backs. Despite the coaching change, it should be status quo at Toledo, and that means more than 6.5 wins.

rolltide · Jun 24, 2016

[h=1]Best 2016 Heisman value bets[/h]
While Watson is my pick to win the award, there's little value in betting him at 9-2. Below, I've listed my top three value bets for the 2016 Heisman Trophy.

[h=3]Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State Seminoles (10-1)[/h]The Heisman is an award for the best player in college football, but in most cases he must play for a team that is among the nation's best. Cook plays for Florida State, which should be a title contender and which hosts Clemson on Oct. 29. A win in that head-to-head meeting would likely put him ahead of Watson in the race. When I talked to Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher this spring, he told me Cook was one of the hardest workers on the team. He averaged 7.4 yards per carry last season en route to 1,691 rushing yards and also had 244 yards receiving. Florida State has a veteran offensive line (74 career starts), which is a nice group to run behind.

[h=3]Jalen Hurd, RB, Tennessee Volunteers (50-1)[/h]Tennessee might be favored in every game this season, except against Alabama on Oct. 15. The Volunteers get the Tide at home; the Vols led in Tuscaloosa last year with three minutes left and have a much more experienced team this season. Hurd will remind you of last year's winner, Derrick Henry. Hurd is 6-foot-4 and 240 pounds, and he rushed for 1,288 yard last year behind an average offensive line. The O-line goes from two returning starters last year to four in 2016, and should open bigger holes for Hurd.

[h=3]Damien Harris, RB, Alabama Crimson Tide (200-1)[/h]If you want to pick a player who is not on the board of odds to win the Heisman, you have to ask what the odds are. I asked, and the odds on Harris are 200-1. He was the No. 2 running back coming out of the spring, behind Bo Scarbrough, who is 25-1. I think Harris will eventually win the job, and that makes him a real dark horse. Alabama is my top-rated team in college football, and the featured Tide running back is always a threat to win the Heisman.

cloverleaf · Jun 25, 2016

I'll kiss Steele's ass and give him a week to draw a crowd if Damien Harris wins the Heisman.

He's reaching deep on that one..................

The LSU running back and Ole Miss' quarterback are the two best hopes for an SEC player
winning the Heisman.