Input on ML vs RL Please

KingEleven · Jun 22, 2016

So a few plays this baseball season I went with -1.5 RL and it has worked out well on the + number. But, last 2 days I got burned with Houston winning but I had -1.5
I have read some articles about one run games in MLB, but none included gambling stats. Anyone have any good insight as far as this is concerned?

Sports247 · Jun 22, 2016

Not sure id consider this good insight but taking a home team rl is asking the team you pick to not only win by 2 runs but to do it with over 11% less outs. I usually try and stick to more road favorites on the rl so they bat 9 times, can win by 2 in extras more times then a home team as well. You also might consider playing the rl on games with a higher total. Just some things I usually do that works at fairly well.

TomGshotput · Jun 22, 2016

When home team wins it lands on one run roughly 34-35% of the time. When road team wins it lands on one run roughly 22-23% of the time.

KingEleven · Jun 22, 2016

TomGshotput said:
When home team wins it lands on one run roughly 34-35% of the time. When road team wins it lands on one run roughly 22-23% of the time.

and what is the "average" swing +/- wise from ML to -1.5 RL?

Willye · Jun 23, 2016

The key is to not go off course when you lose the -1.5 its so hard to do but just stay the course

KingEleven · Jun 23, 2016

Willye said:
The key is to not go off course when you lose the -1.5 its so hard to do but just stay the course

I am in certain spots, as I always do, want to track this a bit more

TomGshotput · Jun 23, 2016

KingEleven said:
and what is the "average" swing +/- wise from ML to -1.5 RL?

Convert the no-vig line into a percentage of that team winning, then subtract the chance of it winning times the chance of it winning by one run.

For example, if there is a game with a no-vig line of +100, both the home and road teams have a 50% chance of winning. The no-vig on the home team -1.5 would then be (0.50) - (0.50 * ~0.34) = 0.33, which would make the no-vig +200. For the road team it would be (0.50) - (0.50 * 0.22) = 0.39, which would be around +155

If the no-vig on the home team was instead -350, their -1.5 line would be (0.78) - (0.78 * 0.34) = 0.52 or -110. Which suggests either the data is slightly off, or there is good value taking the +1.5 against Kershaw

Of course you have to remember that the chance of it being a one run game changes significantly based on the total. Which is why the Red Sox are -130 to -140 on the run line at home today despite having a 31% chance of losing: there is a 58% chance the game gets to 10 runs or more, making it much less likely they win by exactly one run.

ScottL · Jun 23, 2016

You bet the -1.5 Run Line with the teams and pitchers who win the most games by 2 or more Runs when they win. Look at a team's overall record. Then count their ONE RUN Wins. Look for teams who have the highest rate of wins by 2+ when victorious

Last year it was KC who rarely won by ONE RUN. -1.5 with them outpaced the ML all year. This year it's CHI, STL and TOR. Also, when ATL loses it's usually by 2+ Runs. As far as pitchers go John Lackey usually wins by 2+ Runs when his team wins.

KingEleven · Jun 23, 2016

RenoChazz · Jun 24, 2016

Another thing to consider is that you are paying extra vig on the RL, while ML or almost always reduced and more profitable long term. If you are playing really big favorites that are -200 ML or higher, those are better to play on the RL. That's my opinion.