Interested in factoids?

Prof_Factor · Jun 28, 2016

Would you guys be interested in me posting factoids about jocks, trainers, tracks, biases, patterns??
Some would be too incredible to be credible, if you know what I mean. Can't go around accusing cheaters of cheating.
Some others would be simply interesting stuff, like putting numbers to things you already know.
One such example would be Julien Leparoux's turf efficiency. We all know it to be good, but how good?
In general, Julien has won 18% of his last 650+ turf races.
But did you know he dominates Kentucky grass? and by how much??
In Kentucky (CD/KEE), he wins 23% of the time.
In New York (BEL/SAR) however, he wins just 5% over 2 years.
In Florida (GP/TAM), he wins 16%.

That's what I mean about putting numbers to the knowledge.
If I knew how to post images on the board I could show graphs along with the numbers.
So, would you be interested in factoids? Got any requests?

OptionalClaimer · Jun 28, 2016

Please do Prof I for one would be grateful. I can share some interesting stats as well.

IMISREMEMBER · Jun 28, 2016

I would like to see it for sure, you helpede with your Ortiz stats when away from NY , he sux

Lt1 · Jun 28, 2016

Sounds like a great idea Prof.

Prof_Factor · Jun 28, 2016

Cool, then we'll just use this thread for all to contribute this kind of stuff. I'm away from home again Wednesday, but will be back Thursday.
So, anyone feel free to contribute factoids or submit requests or queries.

Prof_Factor · Jun 28, 2016

Oh .... and remember, we can't accuse anybody of cheating ........ even if it is obvious!

OptionalClaimer · Jun 29, 2016

Saratoga Stats:

KEY JOCKEY ANGLES (2012-2014)
-Paco Lopez was 4 for 9 (44%) in Stakes Races
-John Velasquez was 26 for 90 (29%) with 2-year-old FTS
-Javier Castellano was 73 for 312 (23%) in Turf Routes
-Sean Bridgmohan was 6 for 23 (26%) in Turf Sprints
-Robbie Albarado was 2 for 33 (6%) with Turf Routes
-Dylan Davis was 3 for 75 (4%) overall record
-Kent Desormeaux was 0 for 22 (0%) in Turf Routes
-Wilmer Garcia was 1 for 39 (3%) in Turf Sprints
-Brian Hernandez was 1 for 35 (3%) overall record
-Taylor Rice was 3 for 92 (3%) overall record
-Andre Worrie was 1 for 48 (2%) overall record
KEY TRAINER ANGLES (2012-2014)
-Trainer Christophe Clement has a strong reputation for his proficiency on the turf. At the last three Saratoga meets, he clicks close to 40% with First Time Starters with Jose Lezcano or Irad Ortiz riding.
– Trainer Lisa Lewis with Turf Sprint Layoff Runners Returning off a 30+ day Layoff are 4 for 7 (57%)
– Trainer Phil Serpe Going Sprint to Route in his 3rd Start of the Meet or Thereafter was 3 for 4 (75%)
– Trainer George Weaver with State-Bred Starters Making their 1st Start off a 31-60 Day Layoff was 6 for 11 (55%)
– Trainer Chad Brown moving from Turf to Dirt was 3 for 5 (60%)
-Trainer John Kimmel with FTS was 4 for 12 (33%)
-Trainer Larry Rivelli Making his First Start of Meet was 4 for 7 (57%)
– Trainer Albert Stall with Maiden Special Weight Races was 8 for 20 (40%)
– Trainer John Terranova with 1st Start Off 90+ Day Layoff was 3 for 7 (43%)
– Trainer James Jerkens was 6 for 12 (50%) with Dirt Routes
– Trainer Kelly Breen was 4 for 11 (36%) with Dirt Sprints
– Trainer Jena Antonucci was 0 for 43 with his First Start of Meet
-Trainer Patrick Kelly was 1 for 53 (2%) Overall
-Trainer Dallas Stewart was 1 for 38 (3%) Overall
– Trainer Jena Antonucci was 0 for 43 with First Start of Meet
– Trainer Thomas Albertrani was 0 for 39 with FTS
– Trainer William Badgett is 0 for 33 Overall
– Trainer Robert Hess is 0 for 22 Overall
– Trainer John Toscano is 0 for 49 Overall
KEY JOCKEY/TRAINER COMBOS (2014)
– Javier Castellano & Anthony Dutrow were 4 for 8 (50%)
– Javier Castellano & Chris Englehart were 3 for 6 (50%)
– Irad Ortiz & David Donk were 4 for 8 (50%)
– Irad Ortiz & Kiaran McLaughlin were 7 for 18 (39%)
POST POSITIONS (2011-2014)
– 5 & 5 1/2 Furlongs on Main Track (Fast); Post 9 through 12 are 1 for 38
– 6 Furlongs on Main Track (Fast); Post 10, 11, & (12 & Up) are 2 for 69
– 1 1/8 Miles on the Inner Turf; Post 6 is 0 for 30 & Post 9 & 10 are a combined 0 for 24
– 1 1/16 Miles On the Inner Turf; Post 12 is 0 for 23 & 0 for 19 on the Outer Turf
– 5 1/2 Furlongs on the Outer Turf; Post 12 is 1 for 22

Prof_Factor · Jul 3, 2016

Turning on the afterburners.

R.Preciado/J.Navarro (PRX)
last 2 months - dirt races: 31% wins, 69% ITM .... routes 71% wins (5/7)
last 12 months - dirt races: 36% wins, 64% ITM .... routes 43% wins (15/35)

R.Preciado faces a suspension of 270 days for multiple clenbuterol positives at the track last fall.
He is appealing those suspensions and was granted a stay 2 months ago.
You would think his stable would cool down and take a low profile approach. Doesn't look like it.
Six more positives this year and it appears the gloves are off as the barn has won 33% dirt races (they've never been good on turf) over the past 2 weeks.

The 6 latest positives reported (all DQ'd from purses):

Poderosa (3/01/2016 race 9 won) - followed that up with a win 4/03

Christinas Charm (3/20/2016 race 7 won) - that was 16k claimer, runs in today's 1st, a 5k claimer as 2-1 ML fav.

Avaritia (3/28/2016 race 3 won) - only start for trainer, raced 7 times last year as a 4 year old without a win.

Broad Lover (4/11/2016 race 5 won)

Atizapan (4/11/2016 race 3 won) - runs in today's 7th (a 6f sprint) and switches to Navarro. (Totally unrelated sidenote: devices are more preferred with frontrunners)

No Returns (4/12/2016 race 8 won) - that was a 15k claimer, lost next start 6/28 in a 8k claimer with Paco Lopez aboard at 1:5 odds.

OptionalClaimer · Jul 3, 2016

Thanks Prof

Stalker-Dude · Jul 3, 2016

I like this kinda stuff. I remember asking Julian a few years ago if he prefer turf or dirt. He said, ''Oh, it does not matter to me I can win on any surface.'' I said ''Spoken like a true Frenchman, you fight with with your feet and fuck with your face.'' My buddies all cracked up, even Brandon Meier that was there laughed. Bring the factoids

Prof_Factor · Jul 16, 2016

Prof_Factor · Jul 16, 2016

Trying to figure out how picture posting works .....

The above test image is a graph of a retired southern jockey.
The red bars = races in a week.
The green bars = wins in that same week.
The blue line = win% over 4-week span.
The x-axis = week count.

This graph was made over a year ago. It revealed spikes over 30% win rate before jockey's routine month break between meets.
There was another month break coming when this graph was made. You'll notice the 3 prominent spikes that preceded each break.
I figure he need to bank some money for the dry spell. This trend continued until he retired.

Atleast now I know I can post some graphs!!

Prof_Factor · Sep 10, 2016

Minus show pool blows up in Parx 9th race today resulting in payoffs:

$58.60 $30.80 $63.40
------- $11.20 $19.20
------- ------- $12.60

There were 6 betting interests total. The Jorge Navarro trained entry of DEFER HEAVEN and SHAFT OF LIGHT went off as the 1-5 favorite.
They finished 5th and 6th in the 7-horse field. Amazingly, both out of the superfecta.

So that got me wondering how many odds-on Navarro horses have done this over the past 12 months.
Curious?

Okay ....

Horses odds less than 4-5: 49
Winners ...............: 37 (76% winners)
place/show ............: 9 (93.8% in the money)
off-the-board .........: 3

Here's the 3 previous off-the-board finishers, only one of which created a minus show pool:

1/16/2016
GP race 12
SHARP AZTECA
Finished:5/11 Odds:0.7
Jockey:ZAYAS, EDGARD

6/22/2016
DEL race 8
***DEFER HEAVEN*** blew up minus show pool
Finished:4/5 Odds:0.5
Jockey:GONZALES, JONATHAN

8/20/2016
MTH race 4
RAVELO'S BOY
Finished:7/10 Odds:0.5
Jockey:FERRER, JOSE

Jocks on today's chalkblowers were Pennington and C.Lopez.

So that is 2 minus pools DEFER HEAVEN has blown-up or atleast had a hand in. Both incidents less than 3 months apart!!
SHAFT OF LIGHT was the stronger of the entry today but both were highly expected to hit the board, not just one.

Hope you enjoyed this factoid!

Prof_Factor · Sep 22, 2016

Flaming Favorites ...

Current Remington Park meet (5 weeks run).
Asmussen horses going off 2-1 or LESS are 2 for 20 (10%).
0 for 5 with horses 3-5 and lower. 0 for 12 with horses 7-5 and lower.

date # odds fin jock
-----------------------
8/12 r8 8-5 8th Diego,Iram
8/18 r1 7-5 2nd Diego,Iram
8/20 r1 8-5 1st Diego,Iram
8/24 r2 8-5 2nd Diego,Iram
8/25 r4 1-5 2nd Vazquez,Ramon
8/25 r5 6-5 3rd Vazquez,Ramon
8/25 r7 7-5 3rd Vazquez,Ramon
8/26 r1 9-5 2nd Vazquez,Ramon
8/26 r2 3-5 2nd Vazquez,Ramon (lost by nose)
8/31 r1 1-1 5th Vazquez,Ramon
9/02 r4 2-5 2nd Diego,Iram
9/03 r1 4-5 3rd Diego,Iram
9/05 r2 2-1 4th Diego,Iram
9/05 r5 7-5 4th Diego,Iram
9/09 r1 1-5 2nd Diego,Iram (lost by nose)
9/10 r6 8-5 1st Diego,Iram
9/15 r9 2-1 8th Quinonez,Luis
9/16 r2 1-1 2nd Quinonez,Luis (lost by head)
9/16 r8 8-5 6th Diego,Iram
9/17 r8 2-5 3rd Diego,Iram

Other than the 3 noted otherwise, all lost by atleast a length margin.

Horses over 2-1 to 8-1 are 8 for 58 (13.7%), which is closer to normal expectations.

There have been 87 Asmussen runners in all;
16 have run better than their odds (18%)
13 have run equal to their odds (15%)
58 have run worse than their odds (67%)

It will be interesting to see what transpires over the next 2 nights as Canchari gets added to the jockey rotation.
Note: in the 8th race on Friday night, Diego is named to ride the morning line favorite while Canchari is on an Asmussen other. Could be a good race to give a long look.

OptionalClaimer · Sep 23, 2016

Thank you once again Prof

Prof_Factor · Sep 24, 2016

My pleasure.

Prof_Factor · Oct 9, 2016

Prof_Factor said:
Flaming Favorites ...

Current Remington Park meet (5 weeks run).
Asmussen horses going off 2-1 or LESS are 2 for 20 (10%).
0 for 5 with horses 3-5 and lower. 0 for 12 with horses 7-5 and lower.

date # odds fin jock
-----------------------
8/12 r8 8-5 8th Diego,Iram
8/18 r1 7-5 2nd Diego,Iram
8/20 r1 8-5 1st Diego,Iram
8/24 r2 8-5 2nd Diego,Iram
8/25 r4 1-5 2nd Vazquez,Ramon
8/25 r5 6-5 3rd Vazquez,Ramon
8/25 r7 7-5 3rd Vazquez,Ramon
8/26 r1 9-5 2nd Vazquez,Ramon
8/26 r2 3-5 2nd Vazquez,Ramon (lost by nose)
8/31 r1 1-1 5th Vazquez,Ramon
9/02 r4 2-5 2nd Diego,Iram
9/03 r1 4-5 3rd Diego,Iram
9/05 r2 2-1 4th Diego,Iram
9/05 r5 7-5 4th Diego,Iram
9/09 r1 1-5 2nd Diego,Iram (lost by nose)
9/10 r6 8-5 1st Diego,Iram
9/15 r9 2-1 8th Quinonez,Luis
9/16 r2 1-1 2nd Quinonez,Luis (lost by head)
9/16 r8 8-5 6th Diego,Iram
9/17 r8 2-5 3rd Diego,Iram

Other than the 3 noted otherwise, all lost by atleast a length margin.

Horses over 2-1 to 8-1 are 8 for 58 (13.7%), which is closer to normal expectations.

There have been 87 Asmussen runners in all;
16 have run better than their odds (18%)
13 have run equal to their odds (15%)
58 have run worse than their odds (67%)

It will be interesting to see what transpires over the next 2 nights as Canchari gets added to the jockey rotation.
Note: in the 8th race on Friday night, Diego is named to ride the morning line favorite while Canchari is on an Asmussen other. Could be a good race to give a long look.

Update:

date # odds fin jock
-----------------------
9/22 r4 1-1 2nd Canchari,Alex
9/22 r7 7-5 4th Canchari,Alex
9/23 r8 6-5 1st Diego,Iram
9/24 r2 4-5 1st Canchari,Alex
9/25 r1 3-5 2nd Santana Jr,Ricardo
9/25 r3 8-5 7th Santana Jr,Ricardo
9/29 r6 8-5 2nd Canchari,Alex
9/29 r8 9-5 2nd Canchari,Alex
9/30 r3 1-1 5th Canchari,Alex
10/05 r7 4-5 7th Canchari,Alex
10/06 r2 4-5 1st Eramia,Richard
10/06 r8 3-5 1st Eramia,Richard
10/07 r4 8-5 1st Eramia,Richard
10/08 r1 7-5 1st Franco,Geovani
10/08 r4 6-5 2nd Eramia,Richard

The Canchari experiment didn't change anything as he went 1 for 7.
Santana couldn't turn things around either, missing with a 3-5 shot and off the board with an 8-5 charge.
Help seems to have finally arrived for the Asmussen runners in the form of Eramia, going 3 for 4 and getting the first 3-5 favorite to the winner's circle in 2 months. Barn had flamed 6 3-5 favs in a row!
As far as the rest of Asmussen runners ..... they are safe to play now with Eramia aboard.
Last 7 days .....
Asmussen runners 7/18 wins (39%), 14 in the money (78%)

Eramia 5/13 wins (38%), 11 in the money (85%), average winning odds: 5-2 (ROI $1.00)

So what's the lesson learned Prof?
Answer: when you can't get your horses home in 1st, bring in a Louisiana jockey!
... LOL, just kidding.
Answer 2: when favs are going up in smoke, for whatever reason, overbet false favorites or stiffing or whatever, and we know this, then there is money to be made.

Next Remington Park card (Wednesday), shows Asmussen with a pair of runners in the 6th and 8th.
Eramia is on the higher prices in each. Now why in the world should we look at these races a little closer come Wednesday?
Oh yeah, I remember ...... 85% ITM strike rate!!!!!

Prof_Factor · Oct 9, 2016

I want to make clear the above analysis is regarding 2:1 odds (or less) runners.
Canchari, for example, went 1/7 with 2-1 runners and 4/34 overall
Eramia went 3/4 with 2-1 and 5/14 overall.

Prof_Factor · Dec 5, 2016

Can't believe it's been 2 months since I've added something.
Shame on me.
As far as the Asmussen runners, I know Eramia has been smokin'.

Prof_Factor · Dec 5, 2016

Edgar Prado stats ...

Here's something I didn't know .... Prado is a 'money' jock!?
I feel kinda stupid for not knowing this, considering how long he has been riding.

During the past 18 months (before yesterday's perfect 2/2 day at Del Mar),
Edgar has raced at over 20 different tracks, winning stakes at LRL, KEE, WO, MNR, DEL, CD, SUN, GP, TAM, FG, GPW, ZIA, LAD.
That's 13 different tracks he won a stakes race. Del Mar makes 14. As a matter of fact, I couldn't determine the last time Edgar was even at Del Mar. So to come in and win like that impresses the hell out of me.

Edgar rides in more stakes races than any other type of race, and wins those types at a higher percentage than any other type. Graded stakes even more so. Almost sounds like Mike Smith.

Graded 11/47 23% (In The Money 51%)
Stakes 21/115 18% (ITM 44%)
Allow 6/49 12% (ITM 37%)
OptClm 15/108 14% (ITM 39%)
MSW 13/73 18% (ITM 41%)
Claim 10/75 13% (ITM 44%)
MdnClm 7/79 9% (ITM 44%)

I think the fact he travels so much and generally under-performs during Gulfstream's winter meet is why I've
never thought of him as a money jock. Or maybe it's because I remember he didn't fill Jerry Bailey's shoes as
Bill Mott's jock when he retired. Bailey was a hard act to follow.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know ..... now you want to see Mike Smith's numbers since I mentioned him ....
In all fairness, Prado doesn't get to ride multi-million dollar Baffert horses, but here we go ....

Mike Smith stats ... (13 different tracks)

Graded 30/136 22% (ITM 46%)
Stakes 38/188 20% (ITM 45%)
Allow 3/14 21% (ITM 43%)
OptClm 19/108 18% (ITM 47%)
MSW 17/117 15% (ITM 38%)
Claim 0/6 0% (ITM 17%)
MdnClm 1/2 50% (ITM 50%)

No sir, he don't ride no claimers, no sir. Even if he's on one. LOL