[h=1]Euro 2016 quarterfinals betting guide[/h]James Eastham
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The Euro 2016 quarterfinals begin on Thursday night and spread across the weekend with one game a day. Handicapper James Eastham is back with his rundown of the best bets on each of the four matches for Chalk.
[h=2]Thursday[/h][h=3]Portugal vs. Poland[/h]Asian handicap: Portugal -0.5 (+120) vs. Poland +0.5 (-140)
3-way line: Portugal +120 / Poland +300 / Draw +200
To advance to next round: Portugal -175 / Poland +155
Total: 2 (Over +110, Under -130)
Games don't always turn out the way we expect, but on paper<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> this is the least enticing of the quarterfinal matchups. Neither Portugal nor Poland has sparkled and the goals counts of both sides suggest thrills may be in short supply. Poland has scored three times and conceded once in four games (all four games have featured two goals or fewer), and Portugal's 3-3 draw with Hungary was an exception -- they've scored just once and conceded only once in its other three games, with two of those fixtures ending 0-0. Portugal owe their favoritism to reputation rather than the standard of its performances, so the value lies with a Poland side that has defended solidly and played as well as Germany (tied 0-0) when they went head-to-head with Joachim Low's side in the group phase.</offer>
The pick: Poland +0.5 Asian handicap (-140)
[h=2]Friday[/h][h=3]Belgium vs. Wales[/h]Asian handicap: Belgium -0.5 (-140) vs. Wales +0.5 (+120)
3-way line: Belgium -140 / Wales +475 / Draw +255
To advance to next round: Belgium -330 / Wales +270
Total: 2 (Over -135, Under +115)
By beating the Republic of Ireland 3-0 in the group stage and Hungary 4-0 in the last 16, Belgium has proved it has as much attacking firepower as any side in the competition. Against Hungary, Eden Hazard produced one of the best individual performances of the tournament, Manchester City playmaker Kevin de Bruyne was dangerous and the strength of the Belgium squad was underlined by the fact that two players (Michy Batshuayi and Yannick Carrasco) came off the bench to score in the later stages of that game.
Wales has done well to get this far and Gareth Bale (three goals and a cross leading to the own-goal last-16 winner vs Northern Ireland) deserves enormous praise for carrying the team so impressively, but Wales' defense has yet to be truly tested -- and in the one game their back three did come under pressure, Chris Coleman's side struggled to contain England, eventually losing 2-1. The odds on a Belgium victory in 90 minutes seem fair, and the strength of Belgium's attack plus Bale's set-piece prowess suggest there is also some value in going high on the total line as well.
The picks: Belgium -0.5 Asian handicap (-140) and over 2 goals (-135)
[h=2]Saturday[/h][h=3]Germany vs. Italy[/h]Asian handicap: Germany -0.5 (+120) vs. Italy +0.5 (-140)
3-way line: Germany +120 / Italy +300 / Draw +200
To advance to next round: Germany -180 / Italy +160
Total: 2 (Over +100, Under -120)
Italy was magnificent in beating Spain 2-0 in the last 16 but there is a risk of overestimating Antonio Conte's side. Look back at the group stages: The Azzurrilabored against Sweden (1-0 win) and were lucky to meet Belgium (2-0 win) before the Belgians had got into their stride. Italy is organized and has a formidable work ethic but its lack of individual attacking quality is a concern; it has scored only five goals in four games and two of those goals came on the break against opponents that had poured forward looking to get back into the game, leaving big spaces at the back.
Against a German side yet to concede a goal you have to wonder whether Italy will get those counter-attacking opportunities in this match, and that is a concern. However, it's equally true that Italy's defense has been sensational -- the only goal they have conceded came against the Republic of Ireland in a game that didn't matter, as Italy had already won their group - which gives it a reasonable chance of frustrating Germany. Joachim Low's side iare favorites and that makes sense given their superior attacking talent, but the value pick is the draw given how little difference there is likely to be between the sides.
The pick: Draw (+200)
[h=2]Sunday[/h][h=3]France vs. Iceland[/h]Asian handicap: France -1 (-150) vs. Iceland +1 (+130)
3-way line: France -250 / Iceland +850 / Draw +360
To advance to next round: France -600 / Iceland +450
Total: 2.5 (Over +115, Under -135)
France produced its best 45 minutes of the tournament in the second-half of its 2-1 last-16 victory over the Republic of Ireland, and if it begins this game in the same vein it should win in 90 minutes. It has been a stop-start tournament for France but Antoine Griezmann was outstanding against the Irish, and both he and Dimitri Payet have now shown they can step-up to be match winners. That is the big difference between France and England, the side Iceland surprisingly beat in the last 16: while England laboured in the final third, France ought to be technically sharper and more penetrative, meaning Iceland's well-organized 4-4-2 will be tested more sternly than it has been thus far.
The underdogs are technically limited but can be dangerous from set pieces and in open play, as they showed against England, and ought to get some decent scoring chances against a new-look France defense (centre-back Adil Rami is suspended, although some would argue this will help France).
Overall, however, the hosts' technical quality and the benefit of having great support, a factor in their come-from-behind win over the Republic of Ireland, should see them through. Two of the three games where France ha needed to win and two of Iceland's four games have featured three goals or more, while Iceland's record of having scored and conceded in every game also points towards a high-scoring encounter. Going high in the total line is a strong selection.
The picks: France -1 Asian handicap (-150) and over 2.5 goals (+115)
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The Euro 2016 quarterfinals begin on Thursday night and spread across the weekend with one game a day. Handicapper James Eastham is back with his rundown of the best bets on each of the four matches for Chalk.
[h=2]Thursday[/h][h=3]Portugal vs. Poland[/h]Asian handicap: Portugal -0.5 (+120) vs. Poland +0.5 (-140)
3-way line: Portugal +120 / Poland +300 / Draw +200
To advance to next round: Portugal -175 / Poland +155
Total: 2 (Over +110, Under -130)
Games don't always turn out the way we expect, but on paper<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> this is the least enticing of the quarterfinal matchups. Neither Portugal nor Poland has sparkled and the goals counts of both sides suggest thrills may be in short supply. Poland has scored three times and conceded once in four games (all four games have featured two goals or fewer), and Portugal's 3-3 draw with Hungary was an exception -- they've scored just once and conceded only once in its other three games, with two of those fixtures ending 0-0. Portugal owe their favoritism to reputation rather than the standard of its performances, so the value lies with a Poland side that has defended solidly and played as well as Germany (tied 0-0) when they went head-to-head with Joachim Low's side in the group phase.</offer>
The pick: Poland +0.5 Asian handicap (-140)
[h=2]Friday[/h][h=3]Belgium vs. Wales[/h]Asian handicap: Belgium -0.5 (-140) vs. Wales +0.5 (+120)
3-way line: Belgium -140 / Wales +475 / Draw +255
To advance to next round: Belgium -330 / Wales +270
Total: 2 (Over -135, Under +115)
By beating the Republic of Ireland 3-0 in the group stage and Hungary 4-0 in the last 16, Belgium has proved it has as much attacking firepower as any side in the competition. Against Hungary, Eden Hazard produced one of the best individual performances of the tournament, Manchester City playmaker Kevin de Bruyne was dangerous and the strength of the Belgium squad was underlined by the fact that two players (Michy Batshuayi and Yannick Carrasco) came off the bench to score in the later stages of that game.
Wales has done well to get this far and Gareth Bale (three goals and a cross leading to the own-goal last-16 winner vs Northern Ireland) deserves enormous praise for carrying the team so impressively, but Wales' defense has yet to be truly tested -- and in the one game their back three did come under pressure, Chris Coleman's side struggled to contain England, eventually losing 2-1. The odds on a Belgium victory in 90 minutes seem fair, and the strength of Belgium's attack plus Bale's set-piece prowess suggest there is also some value in going high on the total line as well.
The picks: Belgium -0.5 Asian handicap (-140) and over 2 goals (-135)
[h=2]Saturday[/h][h=3]Germany vs. Italy[/h]Asian handicap: Germany -0.5 (+120) vs. Italy +0.5 (-140)
3-way line: Germany +120 / Italy +300 / Draw +200
To advance to next round: Germany -180 / Italy +160
Total: 2 (Over +100, Under -120)
Italy was magnificent in beating Spain 2-0 in the last 16 but there is a risk of overestimating Antonio Conte's side. Look back at the group stages: The Azzurrilabored against Sweden (1-0 win) and were lucky to meet Belgium (2-0 win) before the Belgians had got into their stride. Italy is organized and has a formidable work ethic but its lack of individual attacking quality is a concern; it has scored only five goals in four games and two of those goals came on the break against opponents that had poured forward looking to get back into the game, leaving big spaces at the back.
Against a German side yet to concede a goal you have to wonder whether Italy will get those counter-attacking opportunities in this match, and that is a concern. However, it's equally true that Italy's defense has been sensational -- the only goal they have conceded came against the Republic of Ireland in a game that didn't matter, as Italy had already won their group - which gives it a reasonable chance of frustrating Germany. Joachim Low's side iare favorites and that makes sense given their superior attacking talent, but the value pick is the draw given how little difference there is likely to be between the sides.
The pick: Draw (+200)
[h=2]Sunday[/h][h=3]France vs. Iceland[/h]Asian handicap: France -1 (-150) vs. Iceland +1 (+130)
3-way line: France -250 / Iceland +850 / Draw +360
To advance to next round: France -600 / Iceland +450
Total: 2.5 (Over +115, Under -135)
France produced its best 45 minutes of the tournament in the second-half of its 2-1 last-16 victory over the Republic of Ireland, and if it begins this game in the same vein it should win in 90 minutes. It has been a stop-start tournament for France but Antoine Griezmann was outstanding against the Irish, and both he and Dimitri Payet have now shown they can step-up to be match winners. That is the big difference between France and England, the side Iceland surprisingly beat in the last 16: while England laboured in the final third, France ought to be technically sharper and more penetrative, meaning Iceland's well-organized 4-4-2 will be tested more sternly than it has been thus far.
The underdogs are technically limited but can be dangerous from set pieces and in open play, as they showed against England, and ought to get some decent scoring chances against a new-look France defense (centre-back Adil Rami is suspended, although some would argue this will help France).
Overall, however, the hosts' technical quality and the benefit of having great support, a factor in their come-from-behind win over the Republic of Ireland, should see them through. Two of the three games where France ha needed to win and two of Iceland's four games have featured three goals or more, while Iceland's record of having scored and conceded in every game also points towards a high-scoring encounter. Going high in the total line is a strong selection.
The picks: France -1 Asian handicap (-150) and over 2.5 goals (+115)
