My preseason thread

Sorry – been tied up big time. But it is time for me to start getting ready for the 2016-17 college football season. My two most reliable sources that I use in the preseason are philsteele.com and vegasinsider.com. A lot of times I combine the two for what I consider to be important things to consider when analyzing the transition from one season to the next.

For instance I love the ATS ranking on vegasinsider.com which shows each teams straight up records, their ATS records and breaks it down further by showing home and away ATS records ATS and over/under ATS records again home and away.

The teams with the top ATS records were: Washington St (10-3), B Green (10-4), So Miss (10-4), Stanford (10-4).

The teams with the worst ATS records were: C Florida and UNC Charlotte with only 2 wins, and Fresno St, Hawaii, Kansas, Kent St, Missouri, Old Dominion, Oregon St, and Texas St.

The teams with the best home field ATS records were: Stanford (7-2), Syracuse (6-1), LSU (6-2), and Navy (6-2).

The teams with the worst home field ATS records were: Tulsa (0-5-1), UNC Charlotte (0-4-1), Hawaii (1-6)Kansas (1-6), E Carolina (1-5), E Michigan (1-5), Kent St (1-5), Oregon St (1-5), Pitt (1-5), and UCLA (1-5-1).

The teams with the best Over the line records were: Indiana (10-2), Syracuse (10-2), and Air Force, Arizona, E. Michigan, Fresno St, Idaho, N Mex St, Texas Tech, UNLV, and Utah St all had 9 wins on the Over.

The teams with the best Under the line records were: Missouri (11-1), B College (10-2), Conn (10-2), Georgia (9-3), Ohio St (9-3), W Virginia (9-3), Florida St (8-3), Toledo (8-3), and UCLA (8-3-1).

The teams with the best Over the line records at Home were: Texas Tech (6-0), Indiana (6-1), Oklahoma St, Maryland (6-1), and Oregon (6-1).

The teams with the best Under the line records at Home were: UTEP (5-0), Vandy (5-0-1), and Ball St, Boise St, B College, Conn, Duke, E Caroline, Georgia St, Illinois, Iowa St, Marshall, U Mass, Missouri, UNC Charlotte, Ohio St, S Carolina, UCLA, Utah, Wash St, and W Virginia all only had one Over at home.

The teams with the best Over the line record on the road were: Air Force (6-1), Syracuse (5-0), Boise St (5-1), E Mich (5-1), Fresno St (5-1), Idaho (5-1), S Ala (5-1), UNLV (5-1) and Utah St (5-1).

The teams with the best Under the line record on the road were: Florida St (5-0), Missouri (5-0),
Texas A&M (4-0), Cal (5-1), Conn (5-1), Geo So (5-1), Kent St (5-1), Midd Tenn St (5-1), Vandy (5-1), and
Wyoming (5-1).

Next chance I get I will look at Philsteele.com and analyze his experience rankings and try to relate them to the upcoming season.

russ1945 said:

Sorry – been tied up big time.

Click to expand...

Watch out for them girls with knot tying skills.

I've never been tied up with a bra before.

Being tied up can be a good thing but I always require them to use a slip knot.

What size bra is your girl wearing in that picture

Don't worry about "Ol Russ"......He has been keeping those "honeys" at bay for a long time....Especially those Oklahoma women...We all know how rough they can play......

Good to have you back Russ.............

..........we have missed you the past several months.

Well guys it is good to be back. Here is a little bit more:

I usually start getting ready for a new football season by recapping and re-analyzing the preceding season. There is a lot of relevant info in Phil Steele’s annual previews and I spend a lot of time going through both the preceding season’s magazine as well as the preview for the upcoming season. There are a lot of reliable stats in Steele’s magazine and you can learn a lot by reading his stats etc and by checking out updates he posts on philsteele.com.

However, like most preseason pickers usually around 10 of the top 25 picks do not make it to the final AP Poll. Last season once again Steele picked 10 teams that did not make it to the final poll. Those 10 teams were USC, Georgia, Auburn, UCLA, Penn St, Virginia Tech, Miami Florida, Arkansas, Boise St, and Missouri. Combined those 10 teams finished the season with a straight up record of 77-63 (55%) and an ATS record of 55-77 (42%).

The 10 teams that replaced them were Utah, Oklahoma St, Houston, Iowa, Michigan, N Carolina, Navy, Northwestern, W. Kentucky and Florida. Combined those teams finished the season with a straight up record of 109-26 (81%) and an ATS record of 76-56 (58%).

His preseason top 25 finished the season with a straight up record of 240-90 (73%) and an ATS record of 165-164 (51%).

The final AP top 25 finished the season with a straight up record of 272-63 (82%) and an ATS record if 186-147 (56%).

So keep this in mind when you look at just about any preseason top 25 not just Steele’s. If you can focus on the teams who might not make it to the final poll and which teams might replace them you can do well ATS betting against those who might fall and betting on those who might replace them. As the season progresses things open up and you can see things through a better perspective. But as far as top 25 teams go handicappers are more concerned with which teams are going to do best ATS and that is a completely different ball game.

Look at Mich St last season. They were picked #9 in Steele’s preseason poll and finished #6 in the final AP poll. They went 12-2 SU and 5-9 ATS.

Last year Steele listed his top 55 picks in order. 5 teams that finished in the final AP top 25 were not even rated in his top 55. Those teams were Iowa, Navy, NW, W Kentucky, and Florida. Those 5 teams finished the season with a straight up record of 55-13 (81%) and an ATS record of 40-25 (62%).

Bottom line is you should recap the preceding season before starting to mentally process the upcoming season. See what you can learn from the past season and try to apply it to the upcoming season. Clemson was ranked #17 and Oklahoma #18 in Steele’s preview for 2015. They both wound up in the final 4 and even playing against each other. His top 3 preseason picks were Ohio St, TCU, and USC and none of them made the playoffs.

He also has a power poll which is very helpful and he combines all 9 of his rating systems into that poll. His preseason preview is my favorite and it is a great place to start. BOL

Good to see your posts again Russ. Let's have a great July/ August prior to pre-season camp starting (I can't call it "fall camp", as it's always 105+ degrees where I live in August thus that not being "Fall" at all. Not even by the calendar is it Fall).

jblonghorn said:

Good to see your posts again Russ. Let's have a great July/ August prior to pre-season camp starting (I can't call it "fall camp", as it's always 105+ degrees where I live in August thus that not being "Fall" at all. Not even by the calendar is it Fall).

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Looks like a very interesting season this time around. We have a lot to kick around in the meantime and I hope you and everyone on here has a great 4th of July.

jblonghorn said:

Good to see your posts again Russ. Let's have a great July/ August prior to pre-season camp starting (I can't call it "fall camp", as it's always 105+ degrees where I live in August thus that not being "Fall" at all. Not even by the calendar is it Fall).

Click to expand...

And where have you been this Spring and early summer JB; With all the talk in and around Austin about Charley Strong and his "women issues" you chose to remain silent. Keep an eye on him...he might start "horning-in" on you're stable of Phillies.....Hope all is well with you and have a happy and safe 4th.

One charts that Steele has in his Preseason Preview that is not common knowledge is " A look back: 2015 CAB week-by-week rankings. It is very interesting to say the least. Hard to remember that 46 different teams made the top 25 at one time or another. 9 times stayed on for the whole season, Ohio St, TCU, Alabama, Baylor, Mich State, Florida St, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma.

Another charts ranks the recruiting rankings for his top 75 teams. I compared the 2015 list to the 2016 list:

In 2015 Texas was ranked #12 and this year was ranked #13
In 2015 Baylor was ranked #34 and this year was ranked #18
In 2015 S Carolina was ranked #10 and this year was ranked #24
In 2015 Texas A&M was ranked #11 and this year was ranked #21
in 2015 Miss St was ranked #13 and this year was ranked #29
in 2015 Ole Miss was ranked #19 and this year was ranked #6
In 2015 Missouri was ranked #22 and this year was ranked #47
in 2015 Louisville was ranked #25 and this year was ranked #40
In 205 Mich St was ranked #26 and this year was ranked #15
in 2015 TCU was ranked #41 and this year was ranked #25
What are the odds - in 2015 Wisconsin was ranked #39 and this year once again #39
Last year Kansas St was ranked #52 and this year was ranked #75

Keep in mind this list includes Frosh and JUCO's and this is his own list

Again this magazine is well worth it.

[h=3]Baylor's 2017 recruiting class is basically gone, and 7 freshmen want ...[/h]

Vegasinsider.com has “Stats – Iskoe’s Spreadsheet" which has all kinds of state on it that you probably can’t find anywhere else. Well worth checking out as last season’s stats are still on there. Once the season ends he updates them weekly. You can trace avg margins (win or loss), and even net power rating changes along with lot of other stats.

Below are the teams whose avg win margin was 2TD’s or more per game:

Oklahoma (+21.5), Ohio St (+20.6), Alabama (+20), Baylor (+19.8), Houston (+19.7), Boise St (+18.9), W Kentucky (+18.4), Ole Miss (+18.2), App State (+17.6), Clemson (+16.8), N. Carolina (+16.2), S Diego St (+15.7), Stanford (+15.2), Tenn (+15.2), Michigan (+15), Navy (+15), TCU (+14.9), So. Miss (+14.3), Toledo (+14.2), Florida St (+14.2)

Below are the teams whose avg losing margin was 2 TD’s or more per game:

Kansas (-30.9), N. Texas (-26), UCF (-23.8), UNC Charlotte (-18.7), Hawaii (-18), Oregon St (-18), SMU (-17.9), E Mich (-16.7), Tulane (-16.5), N Mex St (-16.4), Fresno St (-15.9), La Monroe (-15.5), Wyoming (-15)

You can us stats like this by comparing them to projections on how each of these teams are ranked in terms of experience rankings, toughness of schedules, etc.

BOL

I will spend some time looking at teams not in Steele’s Top 25 that might do better than expected and might sneak in to that final AP Poll.

I think I will start with Virginia Tech. Steele pegs them #43 in his top 57.

The Hokies have a new HC and Justin Fuente is a good one. DC Bud Foster returns for his 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] season and will be a big help in giving Fuente a big boost at least on that side of the ball. Last year the Hokies returned 8 starters on offense and 8 on defense. This year they return 8 on offense and 7 on defense. Steele ranks their schedule as the 41[SUP]st[/SUP] toughest this year. Last year they faced the 47[SUP]th[/SUP] toughest schedule.

They lose QB Michael Brewer but return their top 3 rushers and top 3 wide receivers. Last year they finished #53 in scoring offense averaging 31ppg. The offense should improve. Steele ranks their OL #25 going into this season. New OC Brad Cornelsen followed HC Fuente over from Memphis St. He is a good QB coach and last year Memphis finished #11 in scoring offense. They also converted on third down at 48.8%.

Last year the Hokies finished #50 in scoring defense allowing 26.3 ppg. They have 2 former DC’s assisting Foster so there should be a marked improvement on that side of the ball. They return 8 of their top 12 tacklers.

In week 2 last year the Hokies defeated Ohio St at Ohio St by the score of 35-21. This year they face Notre Dame and Tennessee. However in league play they do not face Florida St, Clemson, or Louisville. Last year they lost 3 league games by 3 or less points.

Now you can question whether Fuente is a better HC than Beamer but he will definitely be a positive factor to the Hokies success. Safety Chuck Clark is on the Bednarik Award watch list and RB McMillan and WR Ford are both on the Maxwell Award watch list. JUCO transfer QB Evans could wind up as the starter and could make a big difference.

I can see this team going 8-4 and possible a Bowl win to boot. Last year they were 6-7 ATS and I look for improvement there also. The matchup on week 2 with Tennessee will probably tell us what we need to know. Surely they will not win but if they pull their points that will suffice. I pointed out that last year Memphis under HC Fuente converted on 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down 48.8% of the time. Tenn last year finished #2 in 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down defense so that will be what to watch for.

Fuente is following an all time great and his first year may be his toughest but his coaching staff is top notch and if they fill the QB position I can see this team surprising a lot of people We shall see.

BOL

April 23, 2016
Tech ends spring practice with Maroon-Orange Spring Game
Hokies with highlights on both sides of the ball to thrill a large crowd at Lane Stadium

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BLACKSBURG – Jérod Evans threw a touchdown pass to Jaylen Bradshaw,Coleman Fox scored on a touchdown run, and Houshun Gaines had two sacks to headline the annual Maroon-Orange Spring Game played atLane Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
Rather than split the team into two squads, head coach Justin Fuente elected to play the offense versus the defense, with the defense getting points for a turnover, a three-and-out, and a stop. The Orange team, which was the offense, won 20-15 thanks primarily to the two touchdowns.
Before talking about what was essentially a scrimmage, Fuente started his postgame news conference by thanking the thousands of fans who showed on a perfect day for football.
“That was absolutely incredible,” he said. “It was an incredible show of support for our kids … it was a really great atmosphere. It was a great as I’ve seen in terms of a spring game and fan turnout and all that sort of stuff. I know the kids appreciated it and I certainly do. Everyone who made the trip up here for this game should be commended.”
The five quarterbacks split the reps evenly throughout the game, but Evans enjoyed the better of it statistically. Unofficially, he completed 8 of 15 for 104 yards, with a touchdown. Bradshaw caught five passes for 71 yards, including a 24-yard touchdown reception from Evans.
Evans and Brenden Motley had moved ahead of the other three quarterbacks on the depth chart and received more of the reps in practices leading up to the spring game. Fuente cautioned reading too much into Evans’ performance.
“I think both of those kids had good springs and made progress,” he said. “I try not to make too much of one practice. This was one of 15, even though it was a spring game and it was a big deal – and we treat it like it’s a big deal.
“We’ll evaluate the entire body of work and see how we feel about those guys. I don’t know about the stats and I’m not concerned with that. I’m more concerned with how many times we were going where we were supposed to go with the football and how we operated. We’ll look at the film and see how we did.”
Tailback D.J. Reid led the rushers with 53 yards, but Fox scored late in the game on a 16-yard run. In addition to the two touchdowns, the Orange got two field goals from Joey Slye, who connected from 26 and 54 yards.
Defensively, Gaines had two sacks and both Nigel Williams and Darius Fullwood each had one.
“I like our starting 11,” Fuente said of the defense. “I think we have a chance if we continue to develop, to have ago do core. We are really focusing our efforts on those young guys and we’re seeing glimpses of those good things. We’re seeing them play at a high level at times. It’s very difficult to play at a high level on a consistent basis, but that’s where we have to get to with some of those young players. We don’t have time for them to make freshmen or sophomore mistakes. They’ve got to grow up literally right before eyes in the next several months to give us a chance.”
Tech opens the 2016 season on Sept. 3 against Liberty at Lane Stadium. The kickoff time has not yet been set.

Steele picks Oregon to finish #26. Yes not asking for much to make the final top 25. He also ranks them #20 in his power poll. But Stanford is ranked #10, UCLA #15 and USC #20 so the Ducks are right on the fringe and the anything is possible. Last year Steele picked them to be #11 and they wound up #19 with a 9-4 record. They had only 6 returning starters on each side of the ball. This year they return 6 on offense and 5 on defense. Last year they finished the regular season with 6 straight wins and wound up losing their bowl game to TCU in OT.

HC Mark Helfrich is in his 4[SUP]th[/SUP] year and is 33-8. Last year Steele had them facing the #33 toughest schedule and this #36. They do not play UCLA, they host Washington and Stanford but play Wash St, Cal, USC, Utah, and Oregon St on the road. They do have to travel to Nebraska in a non-conference matchup. Former WR Coach Matt Lubick takes over as OC and former Michigan HC Brady Hoke takes over as DC.

Offensively last year the Ducks finished #4 in scoring offense averaging 43 ppg. A lot will depend on who the QB will be and how he will perform. But the Ducks do return their top 4 rushers and although they lose their top receiver #2 thru #6 do return. Steele has ranked the Oregon RB’s #3 and their WR’s #5 in his preseason preview (once again a great magazine). Again, if a QB rises to the occasion so will the entire team.

Defensively the Ducks finished out of the top 100 last year. It is their distinct and obvious Achilles heel. Brady Hoke is switching them to a 4-3 defense. More than one player will have to raise the bar but if they do the Ducks could do another 9-4 season. Steele does not think they will do that well I can see why. But I think they can hang in there again if a QB rises to the occasion. If Brady Hoke puts together some good game plans that would make a big difference also.

So in summary I could be going out on a limb but I think Oregon still has it going. Steele ranked their Frosh and Juco recruiting #23 which is only 1 behind Stanford. I think that HC Helfrich will probably be more involved in the offense this year after losing his OC and that would be a big positive factor.

BOL

[h=1]Oregon State Beavers football 2016 position battle to watch: Quarterbacks[/h][FONT=&quot][/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]The Oregon State Beavers quarterback Marcus McMaryion (3) before Media Day, signaling the beginning of fall football practice under new head coach Gary Andersen at Reser Stadium in Corvallis on Aug. 7, 2015. Randy L. Rasmussen/Staff[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Randy L. Rasmussen | For The Oregonian/OregonLive[/FONT]

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By Gina Mizell | The Oregonian/OregonLive
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on July 05, 2016 at 9:00 AM

[h=3]BEAVERS FOOTBALL[/h]

• Elite 11: Notable alumni of nation's top quarterback event
• Meet team Alpha Pro at The Opening 2016, featuring Eljah Molden, Tyjon Lindsey and more
• The Opening: 5-star prospects at this year's event
• Meet team Mach Speed featuring Hunter Johnson, Darnay Holmes and more
• 6 Oregon HS football prospects make Scout's 2018 top 300

As Oregon State moves closer to the start of fall camp, The Oregonian/OregonLive is breaking down the Beavers' roster by highlighting the prominent battles for playing time in each position group.
Today's position group: Quarterbacks
The overall storyline: With Utah State transfer Darell Garretson being named the starter as spring practice wrapped up, the Beavers appear to enter fall camp with a clear pecking order. Sophomore Marcus McMaryion will be the backup, with true freshman Mason Moran as the third-teamer and preferred walk-on Conor Blount running the scout team.
The position battle: Backup quarterback
The players: Marcus McMaryion (sophomore, 6-foot-1, 206 pounds) and Mason Moran (true freshman, 6-foot-3, 200 pounds)
What's at stake: The opportunity to be the No. 2 signal-caller behind Garretson, an important role in case of injury. OSU knows this, as Seth Collins missed a month with a knee injury last season. And Garretson and co-offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven know this, as Garretson stepped in twice when Chuckie Keeton got hurt at Utah State and the Aggies got down to their fourth-string quarterback in 2014.
How McMaryion fared in 2015: McMaryion had a strange debut season. He began by splitting game reps with Collins, dropped to No. 3 on the depth chart in the middle of the season and then started the Civil War. Overall, he completed 27 of 67 passes for 403 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions while adding 18 rushing yards and a score.
How Moran fared in 2015: Moran spent last fall as a high school senior, passing for 2,882 yards and 22 touchdowns and adding 872 rushing yards and 11 scores in his first season as the starting quarterback for Chandler (Arizona) High School. He was rated a three-star prospect and the No. 18 dual-threat quarterback in the 2016 recruiting class by Rivals.
How they fared during spring practice: McMaryion has been praised by coaches and teammates for his work ethic and improvement the past year but ultimately lost the job to Garretson. Moran clearly benefitted from enrolling early, showing command of the offense in more limited snaps.
The case for McMaryion: He obviously brings the experience, entering his third season in a college program. He also performed fairly well while getting thrust into a Civil War start, completing 11 of 21 passes for 154 yards and an interception while also notching a rushing touchdown.
The case for Moran: In an ideal world, coaches would prefer to redshirt Moran. But they also want to foster competition. If Moran develops tremendously during the summer and fall camp, he could challenge for that backup role.
What they must accomplish during fall camp: Both McMaryion and Moran must continue to grasp OSU's spread offense, learn to recognize the intricacies of opposing defenses and develop timing with receivers. If the ball gets to the right spot at the right time, the Beavers have some intriguing weapons on the perimeter.
Post-spring depth chart
10 Darell Garretson, junior
3 Marcus McMaryion, sophomore
15 Mason Moran, true freshman
New additions
Conor Blount, freshman (preferred walk-on)

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[h=1]Pair of 2015 semifinalists, A&M’s Garrett and LSU’s Beckwith, pace Bednarik watch list[/h]Leave a commentBy John TaylorJul 5, 2016, 10:10 PM EDT

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Yep, watch list season is officially in full throat.
At the same time it released its watch list for the prestigious Maxwell Award, the Maxwell Football Club also unveiled a similar list for the Bednarik Award, given annually since 1995 to the nation’s top player on the defensive side of the ball. And, just like the Maxwell, the Bednarik’s initial watch list consists of 90 players.
Two 2015 semifinalists, LSU linebacker Kendell Beckwith and Texas A&M defensive endMyles Garrett, are among the 90 players in this first grouping.
Alabama leads all individual schools with four players. Clemson, Florida, LSU, Oklahoma, TCU and A&M all have three players each on the list.
Below is the complete preseason Bednarik Award watch list: