TUF 23 Betting Info / Predictions - Friday July 8th

from Damon Martin - UFC.com



A grudge match that's festered for over a year will finally come to a head on July 8 when strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk meets rival Claudia Gadelha in The Ultimate Fighter Finale at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.

Jedrzejczyk defeated Gadelha by way of a very close decision in their first fight in 2014, but the two strawweights have been at each other's throats ever since. For the past season of The Ultimate Fighter, Jedrzejczyk and Gadelha served as coaches on the reality show and once again renewed their rivalry over six weeks while mentoring the next crop of light heavyweight men and strawweight women to possibly join the roster.

Now Jedrzejczyk and Gadelha will finally settle the score in the TUF 23 Finale’s main event, a card that features a stacked undercard with a slew of top names, including former Ultimate Fighter winner Ross Pearson taking on highly-touted Will Brooks, who just recently signed with the UFC.

In today's fantasy preview, we'll examine some of these key matchups to see who has the advantage in some of the toughest fights to call and who might be primed for an upset when the night is over at The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale: Jedrzejczyk vs. Gadelha.



SPLIT DECISION

These are the fights that are just too close to call, but a few minor differences between favorite and underdog could lead one fighter to victory and the other to defeat.


Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-170 favorite) vs. Claudia Gadelha +150 underdog)

The first fight between Jedrzejczyk and Gadelha saw the future strawweight champion score a close decision win. Ever since then, Gadelha has targeted Jedrzejczyk for a rematch and now she'll finally get her shot at redemption. In that first bout, Jedrzejczyk dropped Gadelha early with a big punch before the Brazilian contender powered back in rounds two and three.

This time around, Jedrzejczyk has to know that her biggest weapon will still be her striking, while the best defense will be avoiding Gadelha's ground game.

Jedrzejczyk has defended over 84 percent of takedowns attempted against her and that will be a key in stopping Gadelha from mounting any offense against her. Jedrzejczyk is emotionally invested in this fight, but she has to be careful not to let her anger towards Gadelha overshadow a smart, tactical attack against a very dangerous ground specialist.

Gadelha averages over five takedowns per fight with over 61 percent accuracy. She's also managed to land with over four significant strikes per minute on the feet with good accuracy as well. Gadelha is extremely well rounded, but she can't allow Jedrzejczyk to get comfortable at a distance or she'll pay for it as the fight pushes into the championship rounds.

For Gadelha to win, she needs to get Jedrzejczyk down early and often through the first few rounds. If she can't get the fight to the mat, Jedrzejczyk will start to pick her apart on the feet and she's even more dangerous now than when they first met in 2014. Jedrzejczyk is a punishing brute on the feet and as long as she doesn't get locked into a clinch fight with Gadelha, she should be able to rack up enough points to eke out a decision. The last bout was close and this one could be just as much of a nail biter, but Jedrzejczyk is the reigning champion and still has a very slight edge heading into the rematch.

Prediction: Joanna Jedrzejczyk by split decision



Ross Pearson vs. Will Brooks

Highly touted free agent pickup Will Brooks will make his UFC debut at The Ultimate Fighter finale, where he'll face a daunting task in veteran striker Ross Pearson.

Pearson has been bouncing back and forth between wins and losses over his last eight fights while trying to find some consistency in his performances. At his best, Pearson is a lethal striker with dynamite in his hands and an incredibly durable chin. When he's off his game, Pearson is uneven at best while trying to find a rhythm inside the Octagon. In this matchup against Brooks, it's likely Pearson will look to keep things at a distance while attempting to out box his opponent over three rounds.

This is a big proving ground for Brooks, who was regarded as one of the best lightweights in the world outside the UFC, but now that he's performing on the biggest stage in the world, expectations are very high. Brooks is a powerful wrestler with dynamic, explosive takedowns and a punishing style where he can batter opponents on the feet or on the ground. Brooks has also been in a number of championship bouts, so his conditioning could be a big weapon during his early UFC fights, where he's only going for three rounds. As long as Brooks doesn't allow the notorious UFC jitters to get the best of him, he should be able to showcase his skills, especially if he can endure a fast start from Pearson.

Brooks might drop the first round just getting his feet wet, but once he starts to feel at home inside the Octagon, look for him to pressure Pearson, put him on the ground and then work from there over the final 10 minutes. Pearson won't go away easy, but his inability to string together multiple performances where he looks as good as his last fight leave plenty of concerns when it comes to picking the British slugger. If Pearson can't stop the takedown, he's going to be in trouble by the time the final horn sounds.

Prediction: Will Brooks by unanimous decision



Doo Ho Choi vs. Thiago Tavares

An early dark horse for Fight of the Night could be this featherweight clash between Dooho Choi and Thiago Tavares. Both of these fighters are known for explosive finishes, and chances are the judges can probably take the night off when these two step into the Octagon together.

Tavares has looked fantastic at featherweight thus far, with his only loss at 145 pounds coming in an absolute war with undefeated prospect Brian Ortega. Outside of that, Tavares has been nothing short of dominant, both on the feet and on the ground, in his new division. In the matchup with Choi, Tavares will deal with one of the most powerful young strikers in the weight class, one with huge knockout power in both hands.

Choi is a blitzing style striker, who currently averages more than 15 shots landed per minute on the feet. Now those statistics are inflated because he's blasted through his early UFC opponents with such force that he still hasn't even made it out of the first round. Chances are Choi will have to show a little bit more stamina in this fight because Tavares isn't an easy fighter to finish and he'll likely have to battle deep into the second or maybe the third round to get a win in this one.

The good news is that Choi hits with speed, power and accuracy, and as long as his aggressiveness doesn't end with a takedown from Tavares, he should have the advantage on the feet. Tavares is no slouch when throwing hands with an opponent, but exchanging shots with Choi is a very dangerous game. Choi has shown good takedown defense thus far in his UFC career, and if he blocks an early attempt from Tavares, his confidence will likely blossom. From there, it's just a matter of Choi landing the right strike to put Tavares away.

Expect a real battle and a crowd-pleasing affair, but Choi should be able to get the job done before the final horn.

Prediction: Dooho Choi by TKO, Round 3




Cezar Ferreira vs. Anthony Smith

Cezar Ferreira will look to pick up another win over an accomplished striker when he faces Anthony Smith on July 8. Ferreira had taken a couple of tough losses before returning to the win column in his last fight against Oluwale Bamgbose, where he picked up a unanimous decision win. Against another knockout striker like Smith, Ferreira will have to showcase great defense before attempting to drag this one to the ground to get the win.

Ferreira seems much healthier now that he's back competing at middleweight, where he can use his powerful ground game to keep Smith from landing his signature strikes. Smith is deadly with his hands and feet, but he might not want to throw as many kicks this time around out of fear of being taken to the mat. Given Ferreira's 56 percent takedown accuracy, he only needs Smith to make one mistake and he'll plant him on the ground.

If Ferreira can do that early, Smith will probably be a little more defensive about over extending on his strikes out of fear that he'll end up on the ground again and again. That kind of tentativeness often backfires and that should allow Ferreira to rack up enough points over three rounds to get the win.

Prediction: Cezar Ferrreira by unanimous decision




KNOCKOUT PICKS

These are the fights that appear to be a little more one-sided, but remember that this is MMA, where anything can - and usually does - happen.


John Moraga vs. Matheus Nicolau

John Moraga will return from a year away when he takes on former Ultimate Fighter Brazil competitor Matheus Nicolau, who makes his move down to the flyweight division for this fight. Nicolau was very impressive in his debut, pulling off a late submission win over Bruno Rodrigues, but he's taking a decided step up in competition against a former title contender like Moraga.

Moraga is an offensive machine who powers through his opponents with both wrestling and striking, and the only fighters he's lost to at 125 pounds have been the best of the best in the division. Moraga has lost to current champ Demetrious Johnson and former two-time title contenders John Dodson and Joseph Benavidez. Otherwise, Moraga has run roughshod over the competition and he should do the same with this fight.

Moraga is a punishing brawler who will bring the fight to Nicolau from the moment the fight starts until the final horn sounds. Look for Moraga to put the pressure on Nicolau early and never let up off the gas as he pours on the offense over all three rounds. Nicolau could threaten with a submission or land something unexpected on the feet, but otherwise he's going to be playing defense for the better part of three rounds.

Prediction: John Moraga by unanimous decision




Jake Matthews vs. Kevin Lee

This matchup at 155 pounds between Jake Matthews and Kevin Lee isn't a lock by any means, but there are several reasons to believe the young Australian prospect will get the job done.

Matthews seems like a real star in the making for the lightweight division and as he continues to grow in experience, his ability inside the cage will only get better as well. Matthews has shown an incredibly well rounded game thus far in his early UFC career and he's the kind of fighter who will be featured in main events sooner rather than later. Matthews is a confident striker with good power on the feet and who is a very dangerous brawler on the ground with nasty punches and elbows on top.

Lee is no slouch and he could absolutely give Matthews headaches with his quick hands and versatile wrestling attacks, but it just seems like over three rounds the young Australian will find a way to win. Look for Matthews to mix up his attacks both on the feet and on the ground, and that could frustrate Lee as he tries to find an opening. Matthews is a star on the rise and this should be a golden opportunity to showcase his skills on a big stage outside of his native country.

Prediction: Jake Matthews by unanimous decision




UPSET SPECIAL

Fernando Bruno vs. Gray Maynard

It's been over a year since former title contender Gray Maynard last fought, and now he returns as a featherweight for the first time in his career. Prior to his time off, Maynard had dropped four fights in a row, including three ending by knockout. It's been a rough road for Maynard and it's awfully hard to pick him in his first fight back, especially now that he's moving down to a weight class where he's never performed before.

Bruno is a solid prospect out of Brazil, and while he may not have the skills to make a run at the top 10 in the division right now, he's still serviceable enough to hold his own against Maynard in this fight. Bruno has slick submissions on the ground and solid accuracy on the feet. More than anything in this fight, however, Bruno has just been more active and has fewer question marks surrounding him than Maynard.

Perhaps Maynard returns and looks like the fighter who once battled Frankie Edgar for the lightweight title on two occasions. Still, given his last couple of performances coupled with a drop down to a lower division, it's hard to pick Maynard going into The Ultimate Fighter Finale.

Prediction: Fernando Bruno by unanimous decision

The Downes Side: The Ultimate Fighter Finale
from Dan Downes - UFC.com



JAKE MATTHEWS VS. KEVIN LEE

We start in the lightweight division with Jake Matthews and Kevin Lee. A veteran of five UFC fights at 21 years old, Jake Matthews can earn a spot in the rankings with a win here. A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt, he’s won two straight after the only loss of career to James Vick. The “Motown Phenom” Lee has accomplished a lot at a young age as well. Holding a 5-2 record inside the Octagon, the 23-year-old has five career submission wins.

Both fighters are young and have made tremendous strides in their last two fights.

Submissions may be their preferred way to finish fights, but they’ve become much smoother on their feet. That being said, both have some gaps that they need to improve. Matthews has become looser with his kickboxing, but he still looks tight. His right hand is effective, but he does rush into exchanges without cover. This leads to him eating big shots like in the Arreola and Vick fights. Lee steps hard on his punches as well, which means that the counter shots he absorbs have greater effect. The major difference between the two is that Matthews gets better as the fight progresses and Lee tends to slow down. As long as Matthews avoids running into a power shot, he’ll wear Lee down with body shots and kicks. Then, in the third round, he’ll hit a takedown and ground and pound his way to the TKO.



JOHN MORAGA VS. MATHEUS NICOLAU

Next, we drop to the flyweight division for John Moraga and Matheus Nicolau. A former No. 1 contender, Moraga hasn’t stepped into the Octagon since his loss to Joseph Benavidez in May 2015. Effective in scrambles, half of his career wins have come via submission. A competitor on TUF Brazil 4, Nicolau has won four straight fights. A Novo Uniao fighter, he showed off his submission prowess by beating Bruno Rodrigues with a Japanese necktie (the worst Father’s Day present ever, by the way).

Moraga showed off a more developed kicking game in his last fight, but he’s still primarily a puncher. He has become more patient with his strikes, but when he decides to throw, he throws everything behind it. Nicolau mirrors him in a lot of ways. He’s very deliberate with his strikes and commits hard when he decides to go. Unlike Moraga, when he attacks, he attacks with combinations. He strings punches and kicks together and targets different levels. He does stall between blitzes, though, and that could be Moraga’s opportunity to strike. Ultimately, Nicolau’s defense should withstand any counters, and his higher output propels him to the unanimous decision.



ROSS PEARSON VS. WILL BROOKS

We return to lightweight for Ross Pearson and Will Brooks. Winner of TUF 9 all the way back in 2009, Pearson steps into the Octagon for the 20th time. He’s traded wins and losses in his last eight fights, but a win here could finally get him on track. Will Brooks makes his UFC debut on relatively short notice. A former champion in Bellator, he looks to make a major statement of his own.

Pearson suffers from a large athleticism gap in this fight. All is not lost, though. He had the same issue against Chad Laprise and worked around it. How? With constant pressure and head movement. Fast fighters like Brooks can cover large distances in a short amount of time. By staying tight and slipping punches, Pearson’s strikes only have to travel short distances. You can have hand speed by being fast, or you can have hand speed by always having your gloves in position to punch. Brooks needs to come out fast. Much like Jake Matthews, he becomes stronger as the fight progresses. The tactics in a three-round fight are much different than the five rounders he’s used to. Brooks’s shortened training camp is a worry, but he’s a better overall fighter. He may lose some boxing exchanges, but his superior kicking game and wrestling advantage will give him the decision victory.



JOANNA JEDRZEJCZYK VS. CLAUDIA GADELHA

Time for the main event! Joanna Jedrzejczyk won their first fight in 2014 by split decision, but she’s looking for a more emphatic statement this time around. Defending her belt for the third time, Jedrzejczyk couples world class striking with excellent takedown defense in a way we rarely see in MMA. Gadelha has only fought once since losing to Jedrzejczyk, a dominant win over Jessica Aguilar.

We know what Jedrzejczyk wants to do. The question is, “Can Gadelha stop her?” If you look at their first fight, a well-placed uppercut in the closing minute of the first round was the deciding factor. Gadelha left herself open because she tired herself out reaching for a takedown. Jedrzejczyk can be taken down, but out-muscling her against the fence isn’t the way to do it. Valerie Latourneau had success by catching kicks and attempting takedowns in the middle of the cage. Gadelha may know how to do that, but she hasn’t done it in the Octagon. Most of her takedowns are power moves/throws. It may work in the early rounds, but that strategy is not feasible over the course of a five-round fight. Gadelha has success in the early rounds, but Jedrzejczyk will command rounds 3-5. That’s enough to win on the scorecards and retain the title.

The Complete Guide to TUF 23
from Patrick Wyman - Bleacher Report



Li Jingliang (10-4; 2-2 UFC) vs. Anton Zafir (7-2; 0-1 UFC)

China's Jingliang takes on Australia's Zafir in a fun welterweight bout. Jingliang has skills everywhere, but is at his best working quick-paced striking on the feet and wrestling in the clinch. Zafir is competent everywhere, but does his best work in the clinch and on top.

Prediction: Jingliang works faster on the feet and can win the clinch battles. The Chinese fighter takes a decision.



Jake Matthews (10-1; 4-1 UFC) vs. Kevin Lee (12-2; 5-2 UFC)

Talented lightweight prospects meet in an outstanding matchup. Australia's Matthews has won two in a row since the lone loss of his career, finishing Johnny Case and Akbarh Arreola, while Lee defeated the veteran Efrain Escudero in his last outing.

Matthews is an exceptional athlete with great speed and power. He's improving as a striker and works the body with both punches and kicks, but he's a basic if effective wrestler. On the mat, he drops brutal ground strikes and has a nose for the submission.

Lee, a former wrestler, is likewise athletic and quick. His striking is effective but rote, and is rooted in a basic jab-straight, right-kick sequence. Outstanding defensive wrestling keeps him standing and he can work from the top as well.

Prediction: This is a great pairing of talented but flawed young fighters with great upside. Matthews is more diverse and more dangerous on the feet, and that should be enough for the Australian to take a decision.



Cezar Ferreira (9-5; 5-3 UFC) vs. Anthony Smith (25-11; 1-1 UFC)

The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil winner Ferreira takes on the American Smith in a decent middleweight pairing. Ferreira is conservative and has trouble taking a shot, but he's athletically gifted and does excellent work everywhere. Smith is best on the feet, with a high-output striking repertoire, and is competent elsewhere.

Prediction: Ferreira is a deeply flawed fighter but should be able to grind this out from top position. He takes a decision.



John Moraga (16-4; 5-3 UFC) vs. Matheus Nicolau (11-1-1; 1-0 UFC)

Former title contender Moraga takes on 23-year-old TUF: Brazil 4 semifinalist Nicolau in a matchup that makes absolutely no sense. Why would you put a talented youngster, even if he looks like a blue-chip prospect, with an experienced veteran? It's puzzling matchmaking.

Nicolau could turn into a special striker, with surprising polish for one so young and a nice wrestling and grappling game to go along with it. Moraga is inconsistent, though he shows excellent skills everywhere in short bursts and has incredible finishing ability and killer instinct.

Prediction: Nicolau has the skills to win rounds, but if he makes a mistake Moraga will finish him. That's what will happen here. Moraga finds a submission in the second round.



Gray Maynard (11-5-1, 1 N/C; 9-5-1, 1 N/C UFC) vs. Fernando Bruno (15-3; 0-1 UFC)

Former title challenger Maynard drops to 145 pounds and tries to end a four-fight losing streak against TUF: Brazil 4 finalist Bruno. Maynard is a crisp boxer and wrestler, but he has struggled to take a shot recently. Bruno is mostly a wrestler and grappler.

Prediction: If Maynard can't win this, he's well and truly done. The pick is Maynard by decision.



Joaquim Silva (8-0; 1-0 UFC) vs. Andrew Holbrook (11-0; 1-0 UFC)

Silva, a veteran of TUF: Brazil 4, takes on Indiana's Holbrook in a fun lightweight matchup. Silva has huge power in his hands and can do a bit of everything else, while Holbrook likes to box on the feet, throws nasty shots in the clinch and likes the submission on the mat.

Prediction: Holbrook is a bit more diverse. He takes a decision.



Doo Ho Choi (13-1; 2-0 UFC) vs. Thiago Tavares (20-6-1; 10-6-1 UFC)

Korean blue-chip prospect Choi takes on the veteran Tavares in a great featherweight scrap. Choi has brutalized his first two UFC opponents, Sam Sicilia and Juan Manuel Puig, knocking them out in a combined 1:51. Tavares, who has been in the UFC since 2007, lost a fight of the year candidate to Brian Ortega last June but rebounded by choking out Clay Guida in November.

Violence is Choi's calling card. The Korean carries enormous power in both hands, and puts together slick counter combinations in the pocket whenever his opponent throws at him. A sharp jab and kicks help to draw out those responses and begin the exchanges in which he prefers to fight, while flying knees add another dimension to his offense.

On the downside, Choi is perfectly willing to just brawl whenever the mood strikes. He forgets about his head movement and starts swinging with wild abandon, and in those situations he's hittable and loses some of the technique that makes him so dangerous.

It's hard to overstate just how good Choi's killer instinct is. The moment he hurts his opponent, he swarms and doesn't let up until the fight is over.

The rest of Choi's game is competent. He has a nice arsenal of trips that he uses from time to time, and at least thus far his takedown defense has been good enough to keep him on the feet. From top position, he has a basic understanding of what to do and carries real power in his ground strikes.

Tavares can do just about everything at this point in his career, though outside of his top game he isn't a real standout anywhere. His jab-cross sequence on the feet is consistent and he adds some kicks for the sake of variety, though he's hittable and doesn't take a good punch.

The Brazilian is an active wrestler who shoots takedowns early and often. He relies on chains, especially against the fence, and finishes with authority. Defensive wrestling isn't his strongest suit, though.

Tavares does his best work on top. He maintains a heavy base and packs surprising power in his ground strikes while looking for passes with regularity. Getting to the back and finishing with a choke is a specialty.


Prediction

If Tavares can get this to the ground, it's his fight to lose. He's the superior grappler and can do real work from top position.

It's more likely, though, that Choi stuffs most of the shots and plants hard counters on Tavares' suspect chin. Choi finds a knockout shot in the first round.



Will Brooks (17-1; 0-0 UFC) vs. Ross Pearson (19-10, 1 N/C; 11-7, 1 N/C UFC)

Bellator champion Brooks makes his UFC debut against the veteran Pearson. Brooks has beaten a who's who outside the UFC, twice defeating Michael Chandler before beating Dave Jansen and Marcin Held for good measure. The American Top Team product is one of the best in the world and gets a chance to prove it on the big stage.

The United Kingdom's Pearson has experienced ups and downs throughout his career but has settled in as a reliable action fighter and gatekeeper. He took a split decision from Chad Laprise in March after falling short against Francisco Trinaldo in January.

The Englishman is a striker by trade, and one with a deep well of technical knowledge from which to draw. The jab is the engine that makes his game run. He likes to pressure behind it to gauge the distance and draw out a reaction that he can then counter with a powerful right hand or, more likely, a devastating left hook.

Constant head movement and active parries make Pearson one of the better defensive fighters in the division, and he actively turns that defense into offense by immediately looking for the counter.

At his best, Pearson scores with kicks and the jab before putting the hurt on his opponent with those crushing replies. At his worst, though, Pearson sometimes waits for his opponent and doesn't do enough to land volume or create openings for his shots.

Throughout his career, Pearson has been an excellent defensive wrestler. If his opponent shoots without a dedicated setup, the takedown is almost sure to fail. Still, the most technically sound and crafty wrestlers he's faced have found ways of getting him to the mat. The occasional takedown adds some variety for him, while as a grappler he's competent on top and knows how to defend on the bottom.

Brooks is well-rounded, athletic and experienced. He can fight in any phase and transitions smoothly between them as well.

The American Top Team product is comfortable on the feet. He likes to move forward while slinging hard kicks and a crisp jab, flowing from orthodox to southpaw to cover ground as he attacks and retreats. Counters are Brooks' specialty, particularly as he steps back, and he's willing to exchange in the pocket as well.

Brooks likes to go from kicks to punches and then back to kicks, with a special fondness for doubling up on the same side. Following a hard left kick to the body with a jab is a trademark.

As good as he is at range, Brooks' wheelhouse is the clinch. His entries are diverse and technical, and he's vicious once he gets his hands on his opponent. The Bellator champion is one of the few inside fighters who genuinely works in combinations with his strikes in the clinch, using uppercuts to open up elbows and then going under with knees to the body.

Slick body-lock trips and throws add another dimension for his opponents to worry about in the tie-ups. Brooks is one of the best in-fighters in the division, which is no small accomplishment.

Brooks boasts excellent takedown defense and knows how to defend in the unlikely event he's taken down. From top position, he drops bombing ground strikes, controls well and can pass with real skill.

In general, Brooks relies on attrition. He's a five-round fighter whose game layers itself from round to round, and he's not afraid to lose an exchange early if it means he can bank body work for later or wear his opponent down in ways that will pay off in the later rounds. Brooks plays a complex, cutting-edge game that speaks to his intelligence in the cage.


Prediction

Pearson isn't an easy test for Brooks in his debut, but it's a fight the former Bellator champion should win. Specifically, Pearson's takedown defense and skill in the pocket make him a difficult matchup, and that should force Brooks to find creative ways to win.

The clinch should be Brooks' answer. He's devastating on the inside, and if he can get his hands on Pearson the Englishman is in trouble. That should happen enough over the course of the fight to give Brooks an edge. The former Bellator champion takes a decision.



Joanna Jedrzejczyk (11-0; 5-0 UFC) vs. Claudia Gadelha (13-1; 2-1 UFC)

Following a back-and-forth season of insults and taunts as coaches on The Ultimate Fighter, Poland's Jedrzejczyk and Brazil's Gadelha clash in a rematch of their contentious first meeting.

Jedrzejczyk emerged victorious from that controversial fight in December 2014 and hasn't looked back since. She brutalized Carla Esparza to win the title, pounded Jessica Penne's face into bloody ruin and then took a five-round decision from Valerie Letourneau last November despite breaking her hand midfight. Gadelha has fought only once since then, blasting former top strawweight Jessica Aguilar last August.

This is the best fight that can be made in an increasingly stacked division. Both women have great skills and real charisma to go along with it, and the winner will be a marketable property with real fan support behind her.

Jedrzejczyk is one of the most technically sound strikers in the UFC. She has a deep background in muay thai and Dutch-style kickboxing, and it shows in her diverse and dangerous approach on the feet.

Everything she throws is crisp and efficient, which allows her to work at an incredible pace without worrying about her cardio. Her footwork is tight and based on smooth pivots and small steps, which never takes her too far out of range.

The jab is the foundation of the champion's game. It measures distance, scores points, sets her range and above all it sets her rhythm. Jedrzejczyk's approach relies on acclimating her opponent to one speed by flashing the jab and then breaking that with a sharp, quick combination. Vicious low kicks follow hard head-body sequences of punches in a bewildering variety of shot locations and types.

Jedrzejczyk can do it all as a striker. She can pressure, though this isn't her default mode; she can stick and move if pressured in turn; or she can do what comes most naturally and simply flow in the open space at the middle of the cage. Counters are the best facet of her game, and she has a deep bag of tricks at her disposal when it comes to responding to her opponent.

All of that striking skill would be irrelevant if it weren't for Jedrzejczyk's takedown defense. She has been almost flawless since Gadelha took her down seven times in their first meeting, and has placed real emphasis on improving that area. Shots without setups have next to no hope of getting her down, while her clinch game has become one of the nastiest in the sport.

The striking thing about Jedrzejczyk's takedown defense isn't just that she stuffs takedowns, but that she punishes her opponent for trying. After defending the shot, the champion makes sure to sneak in a few elbows, punches or knees to emphasize the futility of trying it.

If Jedrzejczyk has a weakness, it's likely her grappling. She doesn't offer much from her back and has yet to complete a takedown of her own, though she's capable of surviving on the ground even against good competition.

Gadelha is a physical specimen with crushing strength, great speed and serious power. She combines that physicality with slick technical acumen in every phase of the fight. Everything Gadelha does, from striking to the clinch to wrestling to grappling, she does better than almost every other fighter in the division. Moreover, she transitions beautifully between phases and sneaks in offense everywhere.

On the feet, Gadelha is a handful. She likes to pressure behind a hard jab and then commit to hard combinations in the pocket, with a preference for firing off sequences of three- and four-punch counters as her specialty. Hard low kicks provide a nice supplement to her hands.

As good as she is at range, and Gadelha is good enough to win fights purely as a striker, she's even better in the clinch. She excels at sliding smoothly from striking distance into the clinch, grabbing ahold of a single- or double-collar tie and then delivering a sharp series of knees to the body and head.

Strikes are the least of Gadelha's opponents' worries in the clinch. The bigger problem is her strong takedown game, which consists mostly of crisp trips and body-lock throws. The combination of strikes and takedowns is hard to deal with.

The Brazilian is equally adept with chains of shot takedowns, stringing together technical combinations of singles and doubles against the fence. Her takedown defense has thus far been perfect as well.

On the mat, Gadelha is a monster. She passes smoothly on top, maintains a heavy base, throws punishing ground strikes and mixes in submission attempts, particularly armbars and arm triangles.

There are no real weaknesses to Gadelha's game. She's proficient everywhere, combines her skill sets nicely, is defensively sound and works at a great pace.


Prediction

This is one of the best matchups in the entire UFC right now. Both women are in their primes, both are still getting better, they put on a barnburner of a close fight back in 2014 and now they have five rounds to settle the score.

Jedrzejczyk won the first fight by landing volume at range, while Gadelha did her best work with relentless takedowns and top control. Since then, Gadelha has become a better striker while the champion has improved her takedown defense. This doesn't change the basic dynamic of the fight—Jedrzejczyk has an edge on the feet and Gadelha has a bigger one on the ground—but it adds another wrinkle.

With all this in mind, the champion should have a slight overall advantage. She's much harder to take down and managed to shut down most of Gadelha's work on top in their first meeting, and she hasn't gotten worse on the feet since then. Jedrzejczyk works a bit faster, is more diverse and has a reach advantage to boot.

It's easy to foresee a Gadelha victory by keeping it even in the striking, grinding out minutes in the clinch, working takedowns and then producing offense on top, but it's a little more likely that Jedrzejczyk finds her range on the feet and stuffs most of the takedowns. The pick is Jedrzejczyk by 48-47 decision.

TUF Finale 23 Prelim Predictions
from Kamikaze Overdrive



Joaquim Silva (8-0-0) vs Andrew Holbrook (11-0-0)

In a battle of undefeated Lightweights, TUF Brazil 4’s Joaquim ‘Netto BJJ’ Silva throws down with Indiana-native Andrew Holbrook. Silva picked up a win in the informal TUF Bronze medal bout against fellow semi-finalist Nazareno Malegarie at UFC 191. Holbrook defeated Ramsey Nijem via controversial decision in his promotional debut.

The American is 3 inches taller and will have a slight 1″ reach advantage, but he has not competed in almost a year. Silva is the younger many by 3 years.

Silva took a unanimous decision win to open his TUF tournament, but was submitted by the eventual competition winner Glaico Franca in the semis. Franca scored an early takedown, smothered Silva, and eventually locked up the RNC after moving to back mount. A BJJ black belt with a Muay Thai background, ‘Netto BJJ’ has recorded 4 wins by knockout, 3 by sub, along with his debut decision win. He had never gone beyond the first round prior to his last fight. He throws a hard right hand, good leg kicks, and a sneaky stepping knee. Against Malegarie, he was on the wrong end of the striking total at 58-49, but he was landing the more impactful strikes.

Silva won his final pre-TUF bout with an impresive 6-second TKO victory, his second win inside the first 60-seconds of a fight.

With a similar finish heavy record, Holbrook came to the UFC with 9 wins by submission and a single TKO victory- 9 of 10 in the 1st round. He is a submission over position grappler and against Nijem he attempted multiple unsuccessful subs that resulted in a supeior positon for Ramsey. His takedown game isn’t strong, relying mainly on his opponent to put the fight on the mat. His other option is to close the distance and try to initiate a scramble. If he gets put on his back he will attack with both subs and strikes. On the feet, his striking game consists mainly of wide ranging hooks intended to help him close the distance. Nijem was hitting him with regularity and hurt him on a couple of occassions.

Holbrook gave up 6 takedowns and was out landed 29-20, along with getting rocked with some big punches, but his activty on the mat proved enough to steal the decison in his debut.

Silva is capable of competing on the feet and the mat, but he would be best served by preventing his foe from getting to the ground in any form. Holbrooks is aggressive to a fault, but if Joaquim gives him an oppurunity on the floor he can finish. The American appeared to be slowing down against Nijem which could be attributed to his history of quick fights. There is also some concern regarding his level of pre-UFC competition. Holbrook has been out of action for a while, but unless he has improved his wrestling he is going to struggle to get this fight to the floor. Silva’s is a vastly superior striker and will find success on the feet both initiating the exchanges and countering as Holbrooks comes forward

my prediction is Joaquim Silva to defeat Anthony Holbrook by TKO.



Gray Maynard (12-6-1 1NC) vs Fernando Bruno (16-3-0)

Gray ‘The Bully’ Maynard looks to rejuvenate his faltering UFC career with a cut to Featherweight when he meets TUF Brazil finalist Fernando Bruno. Bruno was submitted by Glaico Franco in the tournament finals, ending his 4-fight winning streak. Maynard has struggled tremendously since his run to a title shot, he has lost 4 in a row and 5 of 6 with his only win in that span coming by split decision over Clay Guida.

Bruno competed at Lightweight during his time on TUF, but was clearly undersized while Maynard was considered a big Lightweight. Gray will be 3 inches taller than his opponent and 3 years old, but they share the same 70″ reach.

Maynard came incredibly close to capturing the Lightweight title, but was unable to render the finishing blow. Since his title fight draw, ‘The Bully’ has been knocked out 4-times, accounting for all but 1 of his 5 of his career losses. At his best, Maynard employs a boxing-based attack with decent power in his hands despite having just a pair of knockout wins on his record. A former NCAA Division 1 wrestler, Gray will also work his wrestling, scoring takedowns and beating up his opponent from top position. Including his draw with Edgar, he landed 31 takedowns in his 10-fight run to the title opportunity, during his current slump he has completed just 6 in 6-fights.

Maynard is an impressive 9-1-1 on the scorecards, but he is coming off his first decision defeat.

With a background in BJJ and Judo, Bruno is a grappling specialist. He has 8 wins by submissions compared to zero knockouts. He is 7-2 on the scorecards. In the TUF tournament finals, Bruno spent the majority of the bout attempting to drag the fight to the mat with limited success. He struggled with the size of his opponent and routinely got out positioned on the floor. He worked the majority of his TDA’s along the cage. When not attempting to grappling, Fernando will wing wide-ranging and sloppy punches. The majority of his offense is bent on closing the gap. The toll of grappling with a larger opponent exhausted Bruno and lead to the late submission defeat.

Bruno picked up a pair of decision wins in this first 2 tournament bouts as a member of Team Nogueira on TUF Brazil 4.

Gray hasn’t competed in a little over 15-months and is making his divisional debut. His chin is clearly a major concern and the cut in weight is an attempt to get away from the power of the 155ers. The change could serve to further compromise his already diminished durability. Conversely, it could magnify his size and strength advantages and clean up some lingering cardio issues. Bruno is an ideal opponent for Maynard, but if Gray can’t get the win here it will most likely be the end of his UFC run. Bruno lacks a threatening striking game and he is going to struggle to put the wrestler on his back. Short of Gray getting cracked in a wild exchange or completely gassing out due to the weight cut, this is his fight to win. Maynard will get the better of the striking exchanges, grind Bruno into the cage, and score some decent top position control

my prediction is Gray Maynard to defeat Fernando Bruno by decision



John Moraga (16-4-0) vs Matheus Nicolau (11-2-1)

In significant fight for both men, former title challenger John Moraga welcomes Brazil’s Matheus Nicolau to the Flyweight division. Moraga dropped a tough decision to Joseph Benavidez at UFC 187, ending his 2-fight winning streak. Nicolau debuted in the promotion with a victory at UFC 190 over Bruno Rodrigues- he has won 4 in a row and 9 of 10.

Nicolau debuted at Bantamweight and competed on TUF Brazil 3 at 135 pounds. Both men are 5’6″ and share an identical 66″ reach- Matheus is the younger man by 9 years.

Moraga’s early UFC success translated to a title shot, but he is 3-3 since his successful start which includes a controversial decision victory and a come from behind submission win. A collegiate wrestler, Moraga hasn’t put up big takedown numbers with just 4 completions compared to 23 TDs given up. The majority of his wins have come by submission, mainly chokes, including catching a guillotine of Justin Scoggins and RNC of Willie Gates. Moraga relies mainly on his boxing, but his output has been a major concern. He currently carries a -0.35 striking exchange rate and tends to rely heavily on his counter-striking ability.

Moraga has been on the wrong end of the striking exchange totals in 5 of his last 7 fights.

Nicolau picked up a win over eventual tournament winner Reginaldo Vieira in the TUF quarter-finals, but dropped a decision in the semis. A BJJ Black belt, Matheus has split his 8 finishes evenly between knockouts and submission. His Japanese Necktie choke out of Rodrigues was impressive and his first victory by tap out since 2012. He is a pretty decent striker, working his attacks in combination- highlighted by a thumping left hook and nice straight right. Matheus’s movement is decent, but he can be a little too inactive between combinations. He does a nice job of keeping his chin tucked and right hand cocked and ready to unload.

The Brazilian is coming down from 135 and seems more physically suited to compete at Flyweight. Moraga hasn’t been that impressive of late, but considering he has fought the best 3 fighters in the division (Johnson, Benavidez, and Dodson) during his last 6 outings- this bout represents a step back in competition. Moraga’s lack of a consistent offensive output is a major concern. He tends to let his opponent lead the exchanges and is too willing to sit back and rely on his counter striking. Additionally, for a wrestler he has had issues with his TDD and spending too much time on his back. Look for Nicolau to string together combinations and outwork Moraga on the feet while defending and possibly scoring a couple of his own takedowns. Moraga will struggle to match his opponent’s attack over the course of the fight if he is unable to pick up the finish

my prediction is Matheus Nicolau to defeat John Moraga by decision.



Cezar Ferreira (10-5-0) vs Anthony Smith (25-11-0)

In the Middleweight division, Anthony ‘Lionheart’ Smith looks to continue his winning ways when he takes on Brazil’s Cezar ‘Mutante’ Ferreira. Smith picked up his first UFC victory on short notice and extended his winning streak to 8 fights, including TKO wins over Josh Neer and Brock Jardine. Ferreira returned to the 185 pounds division and the win column in his last bout with a decision victory over Oluwale Bamgbose- he had dropped 2 in a row and 3 of 4.

Smith had been set to face Scott Askam, but the Brit pulled out and was replaced by Ferreira is late April. Both big 185ers, Smith is 3 inches taller at 6’4″, but his Brazilian counterpart will have a slight 1″ reach advantage. Smith is 3 years younger.

Ferreira started strong in the UFC with a trio of wins, but has since struggled to find success with regularity. He is a capable wrestler with a decent submission game, but his willingness to strike has been his undoing. He striking output isn’t strong and while the stats would suggest otherwise, he has some major gaps in his defensive front. ‘Mutante’ has been knocked out in 4 of 5 losses, including a trio of KOs in the UFC. In his last fight, he used his wrestling to negate the dangerous power of his adversary and keep the majority of the fight on the mat.

In all 3 of his UFC losses, he was finding success early with pressure and backing his opponent up before walking into the knockout punch. Sam Alvey landed almost no strikes prior to scoring the stoppage.

Smith has gone the distance just twice in victory, including his last fight. He has split his 22 finishes evenly between submissions and knockouts. During his current streak, he picked up a trio of first round TKO wins prior to returning to the UFC. Smith uses his length well, moving forward and attacking his foe with a steady stream of offense. In his last fight, he did an excellent job of cutting off the cage and battering his foe along the wall where he had nowhere to move. On the mat, Smith can do damage from top position with his strikes and has an active guard from his back.

‘Lionheart’ has also had issues with getting finished and has never gone the distance in defeat with 6 losses by knockout and 5 by submission.

Both fighters have durability issues, but Smith has put together an impressive run and has not been finished since last 2013. Ferreira’s chin is a major concern, but he showed in his last fight that he is capable of employing a gameplan that can alleviate that risk. If he is able to take Smith down at will, he could very well grind out another decision win. Smith brings a lot of pressure, but needs to be careful when closing the distance not to get countered with a takedown. Smith will put Cezar’s back on the wall, limiting his ability to shoot, and land big strikes in close to batter his already shaky chin

my prediction is Anthony Smith to defeat Cezar Ferreira by knockout.



Jake Matthews (11-1-0) vs Kevin Lee (12-2-0)

A pair of Lightweight prospects collide, as Jake ‘The Celtic Kid’ Matthews and Kevin ‘the Motown Phenom’ Lee go head to head. Matthews has picked up a pair of wins since his first pro defeat and has improved his Octagon record to a respectable 4-1. Lee dropped his debut, but proceeded to win 5 of his next 6 fights- most recently defeating Efrain Escudero.

Lee is replacing Stevie Ray, getting the call with over a month to prep for the bout. The American will have a noteworthy 5″ reach advantage, while both men will stand 5’9″. Matthews is 2 years younger.

A well-rounded fighter, Lee has done a nice job of mixing up his striking and wrestling attacks. Over the course of 7 UFC bouts, he has averaged 3.77 SLpM and 15 completed takedowns. He has never finished an opponent via knockout, with 5 submission wins and a 7-1 record on the scorecards. In Lee’s most recent outing, he showed continued improvement in his striking with fluid footwork and a nice jab from both sides. He has some snap in his kicks to both the body and head, and he throws a solid right hook as well. Against Leanardo Santos, he got hurt with a right hand while pushing forward leading to the eventual TKO and Escudero had some success landing some decent strikes that appeared to hurt Kevin.

Lee has defended 70% of his opponents’ TDA’s and when he has been taken down, he does an excellent job of getting back to his feet quickly.

A young fighter still rounding out his attack, Matthews has impressed against experienced competition. All of his UFC wins have come on the mat, picking up a trio of submissions and a doctor stoppage TKO based on damage done from top position. Of his 5 submission victories, 4 have come via rear-naked choke. A BJJ Brown belt, his takedowns numbers are respectable with 7 completions over roughly 8 rounds of actions. The Aussie’s striking is still a work in progress. He throws a nice right hand and a hard body kick which turned the Johnny Case fight in his favour. He does have a tendency to rush forward when attacking and he will telegraph his attacks by stopping his motion to engage.

Matthews was submitted by James Vick in his only pro loss and lost his TUF Nations quarter-final fight to Olivier Aubin-Mercier which was largely contested on the mat.

Matthews is going to need to take Lee down with consistency and keep him planted on the mat. That is easier said than done. Lee has good balance, does a nice job of sliding his hips back on shot attempts, and if he is taken down he gets back up quickly. Matthews has power in his strikes and can bring pressure, but the lateral movement and quickness of Lee is going to negate the telegraphed bulls rush that Jake employs. The reach advantage and strong jab of the American will serve to keep Matthews out of comfortable striking range. Against Case, Matthews was getting desperate on his early TDAs and got put on his back on a couple of occasions which isn’t ideal against a good wrestler like Lee. Lee can’t afford to have a letdown in the second half of the fight or allow Jake to routinely get on the inside, but he should land the cleaner strikes and keep his foe from achieving his ideal top position advantage

my prediction is Kevin Lee to defeat Jake Matthews by decision.



Li Jingliang (10-4-0) vs Anton Zafir (7-2-0)

To kick start a big Friday night of fights, former Legends FC Welterweight champion ‘The Leech’ Li Jingliang meets Aussie Anton ‘The Professor’ Zafir in the 170-pound division. Jingliang is coming off a come from behind defeat against Keita Nakamura, he is 2-2 in the Octagon with a KO win over Dhiego Lima. Zafir took a short notice fight to get into the UFC, but lost via opening round stoppage against James Moontasari to end his 5-fight winning streak.

Li is 1″ taller, but will be at a slight 1″ reach deficit.

The ‘Leech’ is an aggressive grinder, picking up stoppages in 7 of his 10 wins- 5 by sub. His knockout win over Lima came along the cage, closing the gap and dropping him with a hard right hand. Against Nakamura, he spent the opening round on his back, but once they returned to the feet Li delivered a steady diet of left jabs and right hooks. He will also change levels and attack the body. A BJJ Brown belt, he has incorporated some takedowns into his offense- he completed a pair of TDs in each of his first 2 UFC bouts.

Jingliang has had issues distancing himself in decisions, currently holding a 3-3 record with a pair of split decisions in his last 2 trips to the scorecards.

The majority of Zafir’s offense is built around his takedown game. He found som early success and put Moontasri on the mat, moving quickly into half guard. He held the position for a short period of time before they returned to their feet. His quality of opposition and their lack of a strong wrestling background has played a role in his success on the regional circuit. At the UFC level, against better wrestlers, he will be hard-pressed to score takedowns with consistency. Of his 7 wins, 6 have come inside the distance- split evenly between knockouts and submissions.

Against Moontasari, Zafir didn’t showcase a tonne of striking. He tends to use wide hooks to help him close the distance to set up his wrestling.

Zafir comes from a small camp operated out of his own gym which brings into question his quality of training. As previously mentioned, Anton relies heavily on his wrestling and without consistent completions against Li, he will be forced out of his comfort zone. Jingliang has accounted for himself quite well in grinding fights and found success scoring takedowns against better wrestlers that Anton. Look for his aggressive forward pressure and short range boxing to keep Zafir on his back foot for the majority of the bout. Zafir has been knocked out in both of his defeats and didn’t react well to getting cracked by Moontasri, Li will replicate those issues

my prediction is Li Jingliang to defeat Anton Zafir by TKO.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-0)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’6″ Age: 28 Weight: 115 lbs Reach: 65.5″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Valerie Letourneau (11-14-15)
•Camp: Berkut (Poland)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ UFC Strawweight Champion
+ 5x Muay Thai World Champ
+ Multiple Muay Thai Accolades
+ 4 KO victories
+ 1 first round finish
+ Consistent pace & pressure
+ Heavy hands/stopping power
+ Active & accurate jab
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Superb defensive & offensive clinch
^ Solid head positioning & forearm framing
+ Underrated grappling IQ
+ Good get-up technique & urgency
^ Effectively uses the cage
– Head often stays on center
^ Counter availabilities



Claudia Gadelha (13-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’4″ Age: 27 Weight: 115 lbs Reach: 63.5″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Jessica Aguilar (8-1-15)
•Camp: Nova Uniao (Brazil)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 3x BJJ World Champion
+ 6 Submission wins
+ 2 KO victories
+ 7 first round finishes
+ Improved overall striking
^ Puts together striking well
+ Hard body kicks & knees
+ Physically strong inside the clinch
^ Favors knees & takedowns here
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ 16 takedowns in 3 fights
+ Solid back taker
+/-Heavy on her lead foot
^ Leg kick/counter availabilities
– Gas tank bares watching



Summary:

Headlining the TUF 23 Finale is a rematch fueled with fire as Joanna Jedrzejczyk defends her title against rival coach Claudia Gadelha. With their first meeting arguably being both girls toughest test thus far in the UFC, I expect another closely fought battle despite each fighter’s intentions of keeping this one from the judges.

Although Joanna had the advantage standing going into their first fight, Claudia showed she is much more than just a Jiu-jitsu champion inside the cage. Hailing from the renown Nova Uniao camp in Brazil, Claudia demonstrates the Muay Thai staples of her stablemates. Utilizing a classic high-guard and posture, Claudia will steadily march forward as she looks to capitalize on openings created by her pressure. Even though she bears some solid teeps and kicks(particularly to the body), Claudia prefers to punch as she consistently puts together her shots in a healthy variety.

Showing not just striking improvement under Andre Pederneiras, but also showing to pick up on the underrated wrestling that comes from that camp, Claudia has developed into one of the most complete fighters in the division. Although I am still giving a striking edge to the champion, Claudia will not be far behind as she is a real threat in this match. That said, there are some tendencies in her game that I suspect the champion will attempt to exploit. In Claudia’s last fight against Jessica Aguilar, it was apparent that Claudia’s stalking style naturally puts her weight over her lead leg. Not only was this pointed by Joe Rogan on commentary, but also by Aguilar as she continued to kick Claudia’s leg throughout the contest.

Despite Joanna Jedrzejczyk demonstrating devastating leg kicks, I suspect she will throw them sparingly against Gadelha. Although Claudia has shown a knack for catching kicks, Joanna has shown she is acutely aware of this technique. In fact, Joanna was admittedly reluctant to utilize her kicking game until her overall MMA game was up to par(Hence why we have only seen her kick recently in the UFC). Although Letourneau was able to have brief success in catching the champions kick and taking her down early, Joanna has demonstrated fundamental defense when experiencing a caught leg. That said, I feel that Joanna will likely limit her leg kicks to later in the fight, especially considering that takedowns are Gadelha’s best shot at winning the rounds.

I suspect that Joanna will have the most success in the boxing department, particularly within her use of the left hand. Similar to teammate Jose Aldo, Claudia will revert to a defensive shell that emphasizes on protection from the overhand right. Although her left hand comes high, her right hand has a tendency to parry preemptively and retract at a lower position. Traditionally, this opens up Gadelha to left hooks on that side, or uppercuts that can come up underneath the guard(similarly to what dropped her in the first fight with Jedrzejczyk). Even though Joanna does not throw left hooks in volume, she wields an effective one as she variates it nicely to the body.

With distance being the name of the game for Jedrzejczyk, I suspect the jab will be the key punch for the champion. Throwing it actively and accurately, Joanna will set a perceived range for her opponent while simultaneously setting up her right hands and leg kicks. Sadly, this will also serve as Joanna’s best defense due to the champions lack of head movement. Although Joanna keeps her chin tucked and retracts her strikes nicely, her natural aggression tends to keep her head on the centerline as she sometimes overstays her welcome in the pocket. With this traditionally opening up the champion to right hands(as seen in fights with Lima, Letourneau, and of course Claudia), I suspect Gadelha will be looking for this standing.

Never the less, the Brazilian’s best chances in this fight are on the ground. Although the three-time world champion has not scored an in-fight submission in 6-years, Claudia demonstrates an excellent translation of her grappling game into MMA. Like many Nova Uniao fighters, Claudia has embraced and excelled in the wrestling aspect of grappling inside the cage. Although Claudia favors her takedown attempts from the clinch, she possesses a decent reactive shot that may be her best chance in grounding the champion. Despite many feeling that Claudia’s control time against the fence was enough to win her the first fight, Joanna was able to negate any legitimate advances due to overlooked technical intricacies.

In fact, I feel that Joanna shows an intelligent understanding of not just grappling, but grappling in regards to her style and how it relates to MMA. Most impressively is her translation into clinch fighting, as I am certain her Muay Thai base plays a solid role. Displaying good grip awareness, Joanna will effectively hand-fight to assist her defensive & offensive intentions. Supported by a solid base and balance, the champion will often hop to the fence(if not already there) to help her keep upright. Consistently working for a superior head position(forehead driven into and underneath her opposition’s chin), Joanna will look to reverse her opponent to the fence once she establishes this.

What is most impressive about Joanna’s clinch game, is the devastating offense derived from her use of forearm framing. Using her forearms to frame against the face of her opponent, Joanna creates space and opportunities to land nasty short elbows in close. Even when able ground the champion, Joanna shows impressive get-up instincts and urgency. If not already near the fence, Joanna will unabashedly work toward it as she uses it to stand with efficiency. The use of the cage was very helpful against Gadelha, who is excellent at taking backs in transition. Keeping her back to the fence, Joanna was able to prevent this as she worked for under-hooks to reverse position.

Even when the champion has been taken down in the open, she demonstrates a disciplined and intelligent get-up approach that you seldom even see in experienced grapplers. Favoring to work from the half-guard, Joanna uses a far-side under-hook as her legs assist her leverage to come up to a single-leg. This position naturally gives her opponents less to work with(as far strikes & submissions go) and also allows her to either reverse position or stand up in the scramble. Although Claudia possesses the ability to ground Joanna and perhaps steal some rounds, I wonder what the cost will be to the Brazilian’s gas tank in a five round affair.

In life, there is no such thing as a biological free ride as Claudia’s athletic frame comes with a price. Whether it is Claudia’s musculature or output management, the fact remains that she has the propensity to fade in fights. Even if Claudia can ground the champion and win rounds, she may find herself in trouble should she not find a finish by mid-fight. With the emotion Claudia showed in their first meeting, I imagine that intangible has only doubled since then. Even if her intentions is to manage her output conservatively, a measured Gadelha may ultimately prove to be less effective fighter. Although this is a close contest that I caution playing, I believe Joanna’s chances should only increase after riding out the initial storms.



Official Mixed Martial Analys Pick: Jedrzejczyk – Decision

Ross Pearson (19-10)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’8″ Age: 31 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 69″
•Last Fight: SD win / Chad Laprise (3-19-16)
•Camp: Alliance MMA (San Diego, CA)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ TUF 9 Lightweight Winner
+ Black Belt TKD/Brown Belt Judo
+ 7 KO victories
+ 5 Submission wins
+ 6 first round finishes
+ Good feints & head movement
^ Looks to slip & counter
+ Accurate left hook
+ Excellent pocket awareness
^ Favors uppercuts off the crouch
+ Improved takedown defense
^ Shows get-up initiative & technique
+ Hard leg kicks
+/-Often dips heavily low
– Struggles with wrestling pressure
+ 20th UFC fight



Will Brooks (17-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’10” Age: 29 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 71″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Marcin Held (11-6-15)
•Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ Bellator Lightweight Title
+ 5 KO victories
+ 4 Submission wins
+ 3 first round finishes
+ Deceptively athletic & agile
+ Good distance management
+ Controls pace of fight
^ Makes in-cage & corner adjustments
+ Diverse striking arsenal
^ Heavy kicks & hard knees
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Strikes & stifles
+ Excellent takedown defense
^ Solid base & balance
+ Underrated TD ability
+/-UFC debut



Summary:

The co-main event of the evening features the arrival of former Bellator lightweight champion “Ill” Will Brooks as he meets Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson. After being stuck in between contracts, Will Brooks will finally fight in the organization of his dreams as he enters the UFC. A veteran of the organization, this will be Pearson’s 20th fight with the UFC as he looks to spoil the party.

An anomaly of athleticism, the term “natural ability” is an understatement when used to describe Will Brooks. Despite no combat sports or collegiate base, Brooks has developed into one of most well-rounded fighters in MMA’s deepest division. His victories over Michael Chandler alone were proof of this, as Will was able to out wrestle the 4x NCAA qualifier in route to the title. Although he favors fighting on the feet, I suspect Brooks natural grappling abilities will come in handy for his UFC debut.

A well-rounded martial artist himself, Ross Pearson has trained and traveled worldwide to maintain his skills and relevancy in the UFC’s most stacked division. Primarily a striker by trade, Pearson’s best chances for success lies within his ability to dictate terms of this fight. It will be interesting to see Pearson’s approach in this fight as he usually employs one of two patterns. One: Pearson will pressure forward looking to push the action, although this has gotten him countered and cost him in many of his defeats. Or Two: Pearson will circle on the outside as he looks to capitalize and counter.

Regardless of his game plan for this fight, I suspect he will carry his biggest advantage within the boxing range. Although he is known for his accurate left hook, I feel that Pearson’s uppercut will serve him well in getting underneath Brooks shell defense. Often thrown from a crouch(weight heavy over the power side at a low-level), Ross will unleash uppercuts that lead into hooks as he variates them to the body & head. However, Pearson has a tendency to duck dangerously low when doing so, and may open himself up to a Brooks knee as I see that being the strike to look for here.

Whether he inside the clinch or intercepting his opposition with a knee, Will is accurate with his shot selection. Favoring to fight from the outside, Brooks wields heavy kicks that come from all angles. More impressively, Brooks maintains a solid sense of awareness when attacking, as he can seamlessly transition from striking to defending shots with ease. An efficient puncher, Will rounds out his game nicely as he strikes well inside the clinch and off the breaks. Bearing a solid base and balance, Brooks defends effortlessly from the clinch as the usually looks to manage the fights pace from there.

The obvious intangible in this fight will be whether or not the “UFC jitters” will effect Brooks. We have seen world class Olympians like Daniel Cormier come into their debut’s feeling flat or outside of their comfort zone. With Will undoubtedly coming into this contest with multiple pressures, it will be interesting see how he looks come the first round. Never the less, I feel he has a good skill-set to get the job done. I see Brooks’ heavy kicks and range fighting hampering the movement of Pearson, as Brooks’ wrestling threat will serve him well in-close. That said, I recommend staying away from betting Brooks at his current asking price. Although I don’t favor Pearson stylistically, I feel that the oddsmakers have criminally undersold the Englishman here as he is a live dog.



Official Mixed Martial Analys Pick: Brooks – Decision

Doo Ho Choi (13-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’9″ Age: 25 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 70″
•Last Fight: KO win / Sam Sicilia (11-28-15)
•Camp: Gumi MMA (Korea)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ 10 KO victories
+ 7 first round finishes
+ 1 Submission win
+ KO power
+ Deceptive hand & foot speed
+ Excellent footwork
^ Rarely out of position
+ Preternatural reactive instincts
^ Insanely accurate shot selection
+ Times & intercepts opposition
+ Superb sense of hips & base
^ Sprawls & floats effectively
+ Good transitional ground game
^ Chains submissions to get-ups
+/-2 fights in 3 years



Thiago Tavares (20-6-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’7″ Age: 31 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 70″
•Last Fight: Submission win / Clay Guida (11-7-15)
•Camp: Team Tavares (Brazil)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 14 Submission wins
+ 9 first round finishes
+ Active right-hand
+ Good knees in-close
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Solid takedown ability
^ Favors double-legs
+ Taken down 15 of 17 UFC opponents
+ Scrambles well
^ Always looks for back
+ Excellent top control
– Lacks head movement
^ Propensity to take damage



Summary:

In a matchup with heavily forecasted fireworks, “The Korean Super Boy” Doo Ho Choi draws the dangerous veteran Thiago Tavares. One of the most highly touted prospects to come out of Asia in quite some time, Doo Ho Choi has teased the MMA mainstream with his brief, but memorable performances thus far in the UFC. Nearing his 10th year with the organization, Thiago Tavares will look to maintain his relevancy by turning away a young prospect.

Although the common conception of this fight for many lies within whether or not Thiago can take Choi down, I disagree with that assessment as I feel there is more than meets the eye to this matchup. With Tavares taking down 15 of his last 17 opponents it is easy to see why the takedown will be Thiago’s looming threat. That said, Tavares has only finished 5 of said 15 as grounding his opposition is a far cry from a sure thing. More importantly, I believe Choi carries some skills in that department that we have gotten a glimpse of, but not yet fully seen.

An unassuming, smirking assassin, Choi operates his overall game with preternatural instincts that are downright spooky. Although a bit close for conservative standards, the Korean keeps a measured distance as he prefers to sit just outside of his opponents range. Moving deceptively well, Choi maintains his feet beneath him as he will utilize feints to draw out his opposition’s attacks. Only needing one or two bites to get down his opponents timing, the Korean will then accurately intercept his oncoming foe with jab-cross-hook variations(as seen in his fights with Sicilia & Puig).

With the Korean Super Boy often exploding forward to execute, one would think that a reactive double would work nicely. However, Doo Ho has shown brief instances of brilliance in not only defending, but also in transitioning from the defensive grappling phases. Demonstrating an awareness of his opposition’s takedown range and intentions, Choi keeps his hips at the ready as he possesses a strong sprawl. He will float position on top to strike should the opportunity arise, but maintains a solid sense of things as he seldom commits himself unnecessarily.

Although we have yet to see him on the bottom in the UFC, Choi has demonstrated in past bouts that he is no slouch there as well. Displaying a solid transition game, Choi will intelligently chain together his submissions into sweeps or standups. Showing off deceptively strong hips, the Korean pops up with the immediacy and ease of a wrestler. Even though I give Tavares the advantage on the ground, I do not suspect the skill differential to be as vast in-fight as it is on paper. Never the less, Thiago’s best route in this contest will undoubtedly reside on the ground.

Although an accoladed Brazilian Jiu-jitsu black belt, Tavares bears a base in Judo as he is effective inside the clinch as well as controlling the action on top. Getting in close and grounding the Korean will be paramount for Tavares as we have yet to see Choi tested, much less grounded at the UFC level of competition. However, Thiago will have to mind his engagements of Choi’s space when looking to shoot(or do anything for that matter), especially considering the way in which Tavares operates.

Not only does the Brazilian have a bad habit of entering in on straight lines, but does so with his head exposed down and forward. Usually throwing a right hand over the top in an attempt to mask entry, Thiago will explode forward into his favored double-leg. Assuming he doesn’t get picked off priorly inside the boxing range, Tavares will need to be careful enacting this level change as Choi wields devastating uppercuts & knees. Utilizing his deceptive hand and foot speed, Choi owns multiple knockouts in this fashion.

With the transition and ground analysis on Choi presented, I feel his biggest advantage is obviously in the boxing range. Although Tavares has made steady improvements to his striking over his career, he has lacked any significant adjustments or efforts in that department to expect something different here. More importantly, Thiago still shows a lack of head movement which is troubling against the fast-calculating Choi. Although a takedown artist with Jiu-jitsu chops should prove a tough test for Choi, I ultimately feel that the Brazilian’s propensity to take damage will likely play into the hands of the Korean Super Boy.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Choi – Inside the distance

Mixed Martial Analyst



Preliminary Card Predictions:

•Holbrook def. Silva
•*Maynard def. Bruno
•Smith def. Ferreira
•Arantes def. Sanders
•*Lee def. Mathews
•JingLiang def. Zafir



Props worth looking at (5dimes):

-Pearson/Brooks over 2 1/2: -190 (1 Unit)
-Li Jingliang by Decision: +250 (.05 Unit)
-Joanna Jedrzejczyk by Decision: +180 (.25 Unit)



Playable favorites for your parlays:

-John Moraga
-Li Jingliang


Fights to avoid:

-Jake Mathews vs Kevin Lee
-Cezar Ferreira vs Anthony Smith
-Gray Maynard vs Fernando Bruno

Toe-to-Toe: TUF 23 Finale Preview and Predictions
from Combat Press


Combat Press writers Rob Tatum and Bryan Henderson preview the event in this edition of Toe-to-Toe.



In late 2014, Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha went the three-round distance in a fight Jędrzejczyk won by split decision. Will this fight be just as close, or will one of these fighters post a much more decisive victory in the rematch?

Tatum: Of course we have to go back to the pair’s UFC on Fox 13 match-up when talking about this fight. That night in Phoenix, the pair engaged in a hard-fought, back-and-forth affair that resulted in a fair amount of controversy. In fact, based on the data collected by MMA Decisions, 12 out 14 media members scored the fight in favor of the Brazilian Gadelha. I was one of three writers that gave Gadelha every round, while some felt that Jędrzejczyk’s flash knockdown of the Brazilian earned at least one round. Add that result to the pair’s recent stint coaching The Ultimate Fighter and the table is set for one hell of a title fight.

Since that first meeting, Jędrzejczyk captured UFC gold with a complete destruction of former Invicta champion Carla Esparza. She followed it by beating another Invicta titleholder — albeit at atomweight — in Jessica Penne. Finally, she went the full 25 minutes with Canadian Valérie Létourneau. In each of these fights, Jędrzejczyk showcased a superior striking attack, rarely letting the challengers mount any offense. The Polish fighter’s biggest success has come by using her length and firing with volume.

Gadelha, meanwhile, has fought just once since the questionable loss. However, it came against former World Series of Fighting champion and former No. 1-ranked strawweight Jessica Aguilar. Gadelha thoroughly dominated Aguilar, validating her status as the No. 1 contender to Jędrzejczyk’s belt.

On paper, this is a striker-vs.-grappler match-up, but against Aguilar, Gadelha’s striking was her biggest weapon. The question I have is whether she can build on that against Jędrzejczyk, or will she use her superior ground game to slow Jędrzejczyk’s high-volume attack? The other concern for Gadelha is that this fight is five rounds. While she’s gone the distance in six of her 14 fights, she’s never gone 25 minutes. If she can’t put Jędrzejczyk away, will she fade in the championship rounds? She has gone on record stating that she’s reeled in the amount of weight she’s cutting, but until there’s evidence of her cardio holding up, it remains an uncertainty.

Even though I scored the first meeting for Gadelha, I won’t argue that it was a close fight. Jędrzejczyk is clearly the better striker, but Gadelha has shown significant improvement in that area. Gadelha is one of the strongest fighters in the division and her grappling game is on a different level from Jędrzejczyk. As long as Gadelha’s cardio holds up, she’s going to prove that she’s the best strawweight on the planet. Look for her to take the title by unanimous decision, minus any controversy.


Henderson: Let’s start with my colleague’s questions. Which route will Gadelha go, striking or grappling? Well, a strong striking showing against someone like Aguilar is one thing, but now the Brazilian is set to meet a Polish fighter who can be a real killer on the feet. If Gadelha is smart, she’ll look to expose Jędrzejczyk’s weaknesses on the mat rather than rolling the dice in a stand-up war with a highly decorated Muay Thai practitioner and kickboxer who has four knockout wins as a mixed martial artist. Will Gadelha fade in the championship rounds? Quite possible.

The one thing of note in their first meeting — and quite likely the reason Jędrzejczyk took the controversial decision — is how well Jędrzejczyk performed in dishing out punishment even while she was playing defense. Gadelha worked hard to get takedowns throughout the fight. They came frequently for the Brazilian in round three especially. However, almost every time the Brazilian took her opponent down, that opponent was quick to return to her feet. Furthermore, while Gadelha worked for takedown, Jędrzejczyk delivered knees, landed strikes and, on occasion, reversed positions against the fence.

This alone is cause for concern. Yes, Gadelha has improved her stand-up game, but she’s going to be overmatched by Jędrzejczyk in this department. Then, she’s going to get punished when she shoots for takedowns. If she lands the takedowns, she’s going to be faced with a fighter who seemingly bounces back to her feet as quickly as she falls. Gadelha still managed quite a strong performance, but the third round featured a number of those short-lived takedowns. Now, imagine two more rounds of this. Gadelha might continue to score takedowns, but Jędrzejczyk’s response will cause the challenger to fade, due both to the effort she has to put forth to score the takedown and the body blows she endures in the process.

Gadelha is undoubtedly one of the best strawweights on the planet, but Jędrzejczyk seems to be her perfect foil. The champ is too much for Gadelha on the feet, and she’s likely too slippery on the mat as well. Jędrzejczyk’s going to retain the belt, but we can count on another hard-fought, back-and-forth affair that results in a razor-thin decision.



Ross Pearson is set to welcome former Bellator lightweight champion Will Brooks into the UFC fold. Is Brooks in for the same type of rude welcome Eddie Alvarez, another former Bellator champ, received upon his Octagon debut, or can Brooks immediately impress without any adjustment period?

Henderson: So far, Brooks has only gone down courtesy of a 43-second knockout at the hands of Saad Awad. Pearson does have a couple of stoppage victories via strikes, but he’s no lightweight equivalent of Dan Henderson. In other words, Brooks isn’t likely to get finished in his Octagon debut.

That doesn’t answer the entire question, though. Pearson is a scrappy UFC veteran who has shared the eight-sided cage with the likes of Diego Sanchez, Cub Swanson, Francisco Trinaldo and Chad Laprise, among others. He’s won some tough fights and should have won others (see: the aforementioned Sanchez). He’s not going to roll over and give Brooks an easy win, and that’s probably why the UFC paired him with the star newcomer.

While Pearson can hang with tough opponents and even earn some wins, Brooks seems to have something special. He’s rolled past Michael Chandler twice, and he also holds wins over Alexander Sarnavskiy and Marcin Held. This is a wrestler who avoided Held’s submissions for 25 minutes and finished Chandler in their second meeting. Pearson will be a great first test, but Brooks has the wrestling and knockout power to get the job done.

He’ll ride into the UFC a little more smoothly than Alvarez did, but let’s not forget that Alvarez was greeted by Donald Cerrone. That’s a contender we’re talking about. Pearson isn’t quite at that level.


Tatum: Yes, there’s a pretty wide gap between Cerrone and Pearson. It’s not that Pearson isn’t going to be a worthwhile opponent for Brooks, but this match-up allows the UFC to put some marketing behind Brooks and introduce him to casual fans. Unlike Alvarez, who was essentially thrown to the wolves, Brooks has the chance to get over any Octagon jitters in a very winnable fight.

That’s not to say that Brooks can come out guns blazing. Pearson has some heavy hands, as evidenced by his knockout wins over the likes of Gray Maynard and Sam Stout. Where he has struggled is against fighters who can easily switch between striking and wrestling. That happens to be where Brooks excels.

As long as Brooks isn’t overlooking Pearson because he’s got his mind on a title shot, this should be a great showcase fight for the former Bellator champion. He should be able to mix in some well-timed takedowns and outwork Pearson, all the while making a solid first impression on UFC fans and the rest of the lightweight division.



Gray Maynard and John Moraga stand out as two names lower in the lineup who were once contenders. Each man is welcoming their opponent to a new weight class. Are these guys stepping stones for the prospects they’re fighting, or is this the UFC’s way of working Maynard and Moraga back into contention?

Tatum: In the case of Maynard, contention for what? A pink slip? It’s amazing to see how far Maynard has fallen. I can remember being cageside for his battle with Frankie Edgar at UFC 125 and thinking how close he had come to a lightweight championship. Since that night, he’s lost four straight fights and is 1-5 with four losses by knockout. And even his lone win, which came against Clay Guida, was questionable (side note: that was one of the worst fights, well, ever). Now Maynard is dropping a weight class? Who thought this was a good idea? He was a large fighter at lightweight and now he’s shedding an additional 10 pounds. The only solace for Maynard is that his opponent, Fernando Bruno, has zero knockouts on his resume. This fight has all the makings of a grinding grappling affair. If Maynard can’t find the win, he’s definitely fought in the Octagon for the last time. If he comes out on top, it’s likely time for him to ride off into the sunset. No matter which division he’s fighting in, Maynard just has too big of a hill to climb to ever be called a contender again.

Moraga, on the other hand, has a total of four losses on his resume. The opponents in those fights were UFC flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson, Joseph Benavidez and John Dodson (twice). That’s the cream of the crop of the flyweight division. He has no reason to be ashamed. Not to mention, he’s won two of his last three fights, both by submission. He faces a tougher opponent in Matheus Nicolau than Maynard has in Bruno, but what is really blocking his path back to contention is the dominance of the aforementioned Johnson. Until Johnson either moves up in weight or is unseated, there won’t be many people screaming for another Moraga title shot anytime soon.

Back to the question at hand, a win for Bruno gives his record some name value, but a win over the current version of Maynard means very little. I won’t be shocked if Maynard ekes out a decision and then retires from the sport, but Bruno likely outworks him. Again, Moraga has a tougher test in Nicolau, but Moraga’s level of competition will be the difference. He tops the young Brazilian by third-round TKO, but stays in the middle of the pack at 125 pounds.


Henderson: These former contenders have been shackled with the task of handling a pair of Nova União upstarts from opposite ends of the age spectrum. Maynard draws a 34-year-old The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 4 runner-up in Bruno, whereas Moraga is up against a 23-year-old whose only loss came to experienced foe Pedro Nobre.

Maynard’s fall has indeed been an extreme one. This guy was near the top of the lightweight ladder when he was fighting Edgar, but now the 37-year-old can’t seem to find the win column. His last victory came in 2012, and his last victory before that came prior to his set of fights with Edgar. Maynard is slipping. His chin seems to be entirely gone, and he’s too willing to spend time on the feet rather than looking for a takedown. It’s true that Bruno doesn’t have a single knockdown to his credit — and this includes the fights in his TUF stint — but he won’t hesitate to swing for the fences. And against Maynard, he might find an easier time landing those home-run shots. Maynard will have to use his wrestling to floor Bruno and then lay it on heavy with ground-and-pound. Bruno is a skilled grappler, though, so Maynard won’t be entirely out of trouble if the fight does go the ground. Either way, the aging veteran has his work cut out for him.

When it comes to Moraga, I have to say that I haven’t been entirely impressed. Yes, he’s only lost to the cream of the crop, but I don’t see anything there that screams that he’ll be a top contender even if Johnson leaves the flyweight division. He’s a great gatekeeper to the top tier, but that’s probably his ceiling inside the Octagon. However, I, too, feel that Moraga’s experience against the likes of Johnson, Benavidez and Dodson says a lot about his abilities compared to a relative newcomer like Nicolau. The 23-year-old has torn through almost all of his competition, but he hasn’t been in the cage with someone as well rounded and successful as Moraga. Nicolau has a promising future in the UFC, but this will be a learning experience for him.

Moraga does have a chance to make it back into title contention, sure, but it will be in the same sense as when Cheick Kongo continually made it into UFC heavyweight title contention. Both men are borderline upper-echelon guys, but they’re not truly a part of the elite. Maynard, meanwhile, is at the tail end of his career. So, both men might win at this TUF Finale, but only one of them has a possible future near the top.



TUF 23 marked the third installment of the reality show to feature female fighters. With the UFC having just two weight classes for women, it appears the promotion is using the show to find actual contenders, not just add divisional depth. Can any of the fighters on this season actually pose a threat to the show’s coaches in the Octagon?

Henderson: “Actual contenders”? Is that what we’re calling Amanda Cooper and Lanchana Green? Oh dear.

This isn’t about contenders, if you ask me. What we should be looking at is whether the UFC will have the patience to play developmental league to its TUF semifinalists and finalists.

Cooper, while she has shown promise, is just 1-1 officially as a pro and lost to Aspen Ladd by submission at Invicta FC 14. Green, much to the befuddlement of UFC President Dana White, once again demonstrated her completely obvious lack of a ground game in her loss to Cooper on the reality show. If Green scores a UFC contract, she could quite possibly be the first 0-1 fighter to ink a deal in the UFC’s modern era.

On the other side of the bracket, we do have a little more experience from the remaining semifinalists. Kate Jackson is 7-2-1 and has been in the cage with strawweight champ and TUF coach Joanna Jędrzejczyk. However, Jackson lost that contest via TKO and boasts no other top-tier opponents on her resume. Tatiana Suarez features the best winning percentage of any of the surviving contestants, but three fights on the regional circuit is hardly enough to put her on the radar in a strong division.

So, are we really looking at contenders here? I’m inclined to say we’re not. This isn’t about divisional depth, necessarily, but I think this could be about setting up fighters who could become “actual contenders” a couple of years down the road. That is, if the UFC is patient enough to hang onto these ladies through their growing pains as fighters.


Tatum: Well, when you put it like that, the term contender is certainly a stretch. However, the point here is that the strawweight division, for all of its talent, is lacking in clear-cut challengers for fighters like Jędrzejczyk and Gadelha. Jędrzejczyk has already faced a former atomweight in one of her title defenses and Gadelha steamrolled through a former consensus No. 1-ranked fighter. It’s not going to be long before they’ve added names like Joanne Calderwood, Rose Namajunas and Karolina Kowalkiewicz to their list of victims. So then what?

It’s easy to write off Green based on her performance in the semifinals. Her ground game is clearly a massive problem. But her opponent, Cooper, might be more promising. Let’s not forget that she’s a former flyweight, so she is going to be bigger and stronger than a fair amount of fighters at 115 pounds. Add that to her boxing experience and she could be someone that grows into a contender.

As for the remaining two fighters, Jackson has already been stopped by Jędrzejczyk, so it’s unlikely anyone is screaming for a rematch anytime soon. Suarez, though, is where I think TUF has its future title challenger. Yes, she’s had just three MMA fights prior to competing on the reality show, but she also has two decades of wrestling experience and accolades that no one else on the reality show — or in the division, for that matter — can match. She wrestled at Lindenwood University in Missouri and has already earned her purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

While I’m inclined to agree with my colleague that none of these fighters are ready to step in the cage with the champion or No. 1 contender right now, I won’t be surprised if Suarez challenges for UFC gold in the not-so-distance future.



Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Tatum: There are a lot of options on this card. You’ve got an enticing lightweight match-up between Australia’s Jake Matthews and Detroit native Kevin Lee. Or there’s the guaranteed violence that will ensue between middleweight Anthony Smith and Cezar “Mutante” Ferreira. However, I’m going to go with the featherweight clash between South Korea’s Doo Ho Choi and Brazilian Thiago Tavares.

Choi is probably not a household name to most fight fans. But he’s gained some popularity recently thanks to the second iteration of EA Sports’ UFC video-game franchise. Although the real-life version of Choi may not be the juggernaut that his computer-generated likeness is, he’s still one of the most promising fighters in the division. With 10 of his 13 wins coming via knockout and his lone loss coming by way of split decision, the 25-year-old has a bright future. The question is, can he handle a veteran like Tavares?

This fight will be the 18th Octagon appearance for Tavares. The 31-year-old has had some wars in his career, but he appears to have found a home at 145 pounds. His 39-second guillotine choke finish of Clay Guida opened some eyes, and now he’ll have the chance to derail Choi’s hype train. Despite a 2013 failed drug test for drostanolone, Tavares has won three of his last four and will be a great measuring stick to determine Choi’s place in the division.


Henderson: My colleague listed a great set of fights as sleeper candidates and yet a match-up of undefeateds still slipped through the cracks. OK, neither of these men ran away with the victory in their Octagon debuts, but let’s give them a little bit of slack. Rarely does a fighter perform at their best when faced with the overwhelming prospect of a UFC debut. Now that Andrew Holbrook and Joaquim Silva have those debuts out of the way, though, it’s time to get at least a little bit excited for their upcoming battle.

Holbrook probably doesn’t deserve his current unblemished mark. His UFC debut at UFC on Fox 16 came against the tough Ramsey Nijem. Nijem seemingly outworked Holbrook for three rounds, but the UFC newcomer took the split verdict. It wasn’t an impressive performance for Holbrook, for sure, but the 30-year-old came into the fight with nine submission wins and threw a lot of submission attempts at Nijem. Now, he should be more composed. If he’s not in a rush to go for submissions, perhaps he can be more effective in actually locking up the holds.

The 27-year-old Silva posted a competitive showing against Nazareno Malegarie at UFC 191. Where it could be said that Holbrook stole his UFC debut win, Silva earned his in a close affair. The Evolução Thai product is at home on his feet, but his record contains a balanced set of four striking stoppages and three submission victories. Silva chose to stand with Malegarie, and he pressed the action enough to earn the split nod.

These guys barely held onto their perfect records through their UFC debuts, but one of them will have to suffer their first loss in this contest. Holbrook will be hunting for submissions, and Silva will likely opt to test Holbrook’s weakest aspect on the feet. With a combined 17 finishes in 19 fights, these guys should combine for a fun outing that doesn’t require the judges.



Pair this card with…

Henderson: Your DVR. International Fight Week can take its toll on even the most avid of MMA fans. We’re talking about three full fight cards within three days (and that doesn’t count the last episode of TUF, which technically makes it four straight nights with fights if you insist on watching everything live). This is the middle card in the UFC’s mega-weekend of events, but only the top two fights truly warrant live viewing. Take a breather on Friday night, set your DVR, tune in for the big fights and then save the remainder of the card to watch before UFC 200 kicks off on Saturday. This will allow for quick viewing, thanks to a fast-forward button that negates the UFC’s shoddy pacing and the need to watch those Farmers Only commercials, and it’ll give you and your friends an appetizer before the weekend’s biggest event takes place on Saturday night.


Tatum: Well, to my colleague’s point, this event is certainly better suited for diehard MMA fans. But that doesn’t mean you should skip it. If you don’t have the luxury of a DVR and are forced to watch the usual one-fight-per-30-minutes pacing on Fox Sports 1, get creative and start your own drinking game.

I don’t think you’ll get Mike Goldberg and the obvious triggers like “virtually identical” or “embrace the grind” — now you have an idea of how to stay entertained during UFC 200 — but if the stars align, maybe you’ll get to hear Goldberg mispronounce Jędrzejczyk over and over throughout the event. If that’s the case, you might not want to indulge every time he says it wrong or you might not make it to the main event.

That said, my guess is that you’ll get the always excellent combination of Jon Anik and Brian Stann (“Stanik”), but that doesn’t mean you can’t find some solid triggers to have a sip of an adult beverage. How about when Anik refers to Stann as “the greatest living American”? Or when Stann says he has trained with one of the fighters in the cage?

Regardless of who the announcing team is on Friday night, have a good time, but make sure you save some energy for Saturday’s pay-per-view card.



Bonus Question: There are still TUF semifinal fights remaining before the TUF 23 Finale event. On the men’s side, Josh Stansbury and Khalil Rountree are fighting for the right to advance on to the final opposite Andrew Sanchez. On the women’s side, it’s Tatiana Suarez and Kate Jackson who will vie for a finale date with Amanda Cooper. So, quick prediction time. Who wins each semifinal? Who ultimately wins the finals?

Tatum: On the men’s side, you’ve got the more experienced Stansbury against a fairly green Rountree. If not for a fluke injury on TUF 19, Stansbury might already be in the UFC. I’ll take his well-rounded skill set to best Rountree’s power and explosiveness and move onto the finals.

In the finals, it’s hard to ignore the wrestling credentials and underrated ground game of Sanchez. He’s looked fantastic, both on the feet and the mat, throughout the entire season. His record is misleading because he’s finished so many fights with strikes, but it’s his wrestling that will allow him to dictate where the fight with Stansbury takes place. Once on the ground, look for Sanchez to exploit the one weakness in Stansbury’s game and claim TUF 23 by second-round rear-naked choke.

As for the women, Jackson has more experience and has faced tougher competition, but she lacks the wrestling chops of Suarez. She’s a four-time high school champion and a two-time medalist at the Worlds in freestyle. Unless Jackson hits a hail-mary submission, expect Suarez to take her down at will and beat her up en route to the last spot in the finals.

If things play out as I described, the final on the women’s side will pit an experienced boxer in Cooper against Suarez, one of the better female wrestlers at 115 pounds. Cooper has a ton of grit, but she was ragdolled by Aspen Ladd in the Invicta cage — this is likely what prompted her to drop to strawweight — and I wouldn’t anticipate anything different against Suarez. Suarez captures the women’s side of TUF 23 with a lopsided decision win.


Henderson: The men’s side of the bracket looks ultra-competitive this time around. Stansbury does have a well-rounded skill set, but his chin failed him at the amateur level against Stipe Miocic. While Rountree is quite a step down from the reigning UFC heavyweight champion, he does pack a lot of power in his hands. I’ll give him the knockout nod over Stansbury in the semis.

That puts Rountree into the finals opposite Sanchez. My colleague has already touched on Sanchez’s underrated ground game, and that lack of respect for Sanchez’s skills seemed evident early on in the TUF season. Sanchez wasn’t presented as a heavy favorite throughout the show, but he probably should have been. He decisioned Myron Dennis and knocked out Eric Spicely en route to the finals, and he’ll present a ton of problems for either Rountree or Stansbury. No matter the opponent, Sanchez will emerge with the victory in the finals.

On the women’s side, Jackson does have the experience, but it’s hardly a resume that’s going to turn heads. She suffered a loss to Jędrzejczyk and dropped a decision to former prospect Hanna Sillen. In the win column, she has tangled with a string of fighters who hover around the .500 mark and have five or fewer fights under their belt. Suarez hasn’t done much better in terms of level of competition, but her aforementioned wrestling credentials are a true difference maker. Jackson is a European fighter who had seen only European foes before her time on TUF. Wrestling is the kryptonite for many a European fighter, and Suarez will prove as much in the semifinals with a decisive victory over Jackson.

Suarez has a tougher task ahead of her in the finals. Cooper is a strong boxer who has fought on American shores. However, Cooper hasn’t exactly demonstrated an ability to handle wrestlers either. Ladd took her to task in their Invicta contest. Furthermore, she has an amateur loss against Al-Lanna Jones, a fighter who has managed only a 2-7 mark as a pro. Cooper had difficulty making weight for her semifinal bout on the show, and while she might be a big strawweight, she could be one of those fighters who benefits more from a move up in weight than a move down. Suarez should be able to use her wrestling against a drained Cooper en route to a decision win and the TUF strawweight crown.




Tatum’s Picks

Gadelha
Brooks
Choi
Matthews
Li
Smith
Holbrook
Bruno
Moraga


Henderson’s Picks

Jędrzejczyk
Brooks
Choi
Lee
Li
Smith
Silva
Bruno
Moraga

Picks for the UFC strawweight title fight at the TUF Finale:

Kenny Florian -- Jedrzejczyk

Bisping -- Gadelha