[h=1]How to bet France-Portugal Euro 2016 final[/h]James Eastham
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The Euro 2016 final takes place in Paris on Sunday night. After making a profit with his picks during the knockout phase, handicapper James Eastham gives you the lowdown on the biggest game of the competition.
[h=2]France vs. Portugal[/h]Asian handicap: <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>France -0.5 (+110) vs. Portugal +0.5 (-118)
3-way line: France +110 / Portugal +349 / Draw +212
To win Euro 2016: France -202 / Portugal +185
Total: 2 (Over +101, Under -110)
The first piece of betting advice on this game is that if you followed our pre-tournament pick of France to be crowned Euro 2016 champions -- they were one of our two selections in our pre-tournament guide, along with reigning title-holders Spain -- then the smart move would be to back Portugal to claim victory on Sunday night in order to guarantee yourself a profit no matter which of these two sides lifts the trophy. If you are looking at the game as an independent event, however, then that's a different matter entirely, although the prices on the final suggest Portugal might be the smart pick anyway.
There is a groundswell of support behind France going into the game, for understandable reasons. Didier Deschamps' side ran out 2-0 winners over Germany in a memorable semifinal, having beaten a heavyweight side in what a significant portion of observers considered to be the game of the tournament, so it should come as little surprise that many commentators now see France coming out on top at Stade de France on Sunday night.
Then there's the fact that France have home-field advantage, and that the fans have got behind the team in magnificent, colorful fashion. That was a factor in their last-16 victory over the Republic of Ireland and quarterfinal win over Iceland, to be sure. The hosts will be able to count on tremendous support here as well, with fans expected to line the route to the national stadium and heavily outnumber their Portuguese counterparts in the stands during the match.
All of that is true, but if you look at the quality of the football that these two sides have played during the tournament you can argue Portugal is underrated here. True, Fernando Santos' side has won just once in 90 minutes -- their 2-0 victory over Wales in the semifinals -- but it's also true that they have yet to actually lose in 90 minutes either (their normal-time record reads 1-0-5).
While many seem to think that France now has unstoppable momentum, it's worth noting that Deschamps' side were actually lucky to get past Germany in the semifinals. France was totally outplayed during a first half that Germany dominated, and only the lucky break of getting a penalty on the stroke of halftime enabled France to go ahead 1-0. Without that goal, which had little to do with the hosts, who had ridden their luck on several occasions up until that point, the second-half would have played out in an entirely differently way.
Portugal was more convincing in their semifinal win over Wales, and they've looked difficult to beat throughout the knockout phase. France's Antoine Griezmann is the six-goal tournament top scorer, but Portugal has a big-name potential match-winner of their own in Cristiano Ronaldo. The Real Madrid star has scored three goals in the tournament, has more experience in big occasions than any player in the opposition ranks and he's bristling with the sort of pace and power that will test a France back line that continues to wobble.
Germany created a host of clear scoring chances in the semifinals, but they were unable to capitalize because leading scorer Mario Gomez was missing and longtime stalwart Thomas Muller was horribly out of form throughout the tournament. With Ronaldo more dangerous in the final third than any player on the Germany team sheet, France is unlikely to escape unscathed if they defend as unconvincingly as they have previously.
We expect a close game and it would be no surprise if France is crowned European champions for a third time in its history, but the short odds on a home triumph hold little appeal. Portugal is underrated and offers better value, so back the outsiders.
A second bet would be on the game having two or more goals. Predictions of a tense, low-scoring encounter may be wide of the mark, for the simple reason that neither side has been defensively impressive enough to suggest that shutting out the opposition is something they will be able to do.
France's back line was lucky to keep a clean sheet against Germany and conceded in their previous knockout games against the Republic of Ireland (2-1) and Iceland (5-2). Portugal kept a clean sheet against Wales, but they've conceded in three of their six games at the tournament, and it's likely they'll concede again as France is the tournament's top scorer as a team -- making them more dangerous than any side that Portugal has faced so far.
If you follow our advice by going high on the total line, you'll have the stats in your favor; nine of the 12 games that these two sides have played at the tournament have featured two goals or more in 90 minutes, so on that basis the chances of you losing your stakes are slim.
The knockout stage has generally produced a decent number of goals as well; six games have had more than two goals, six games have had exactly two goals and only two games have had fewer than two goals.
The pick: Portugal +0.5 Asian handicap (-118) and "over two goals" (+101)
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The Euro 2016 final takes place in Paris on Sunday night. After making a profit with his picks during the knockout phase, handicapper James Eastham gives you the lowdown on the biggest game of the competition.
[h=2]France vs. Portugal[/h]Asian handicap: <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>France -0.5 (+110) vs. Portugal +0.5 (-118)
3-way line: France +110 / Portugal +349 / Draw +212
To win Euro 2016: France -202 / Portugal +185
Total: 2 (Over +101, Under -110)
The first piece of betting advice on this game is that if you followed our pre-tournament pick of France to be crowned Euro 2016 champions -- they were one of our two selections in our pre-tournament guide, along with reigning title-holders Spain -- then the smart move would be to back Portugal to claim victory on Sunday night in order to guarantee yourself a profit no matter which of these two sides lifts the trophy. If you are looking at the game as an independent event, however, then that's a different matter entirely, although the prices on the final suggest Portugal might be the smart pick anyway.
There is a groundswell of support behind France going into the game, for understandable reasons. Didier Deschamps' side ran out 2-0 winners over Germany in a memorable semifinal, having beaten a heavyweight side in what a significant portion of observers considered to be the game of the tournament, so it should come as little surprise that many commentators now see France coming out on top at Stade de France on Sunday night.
Then there's the fact that France have home-field advantage, and that the fans have got behind the team in magnificent, colorful fashion. That was a factor in their last-16 victory over the Republic of Ireland and quarterfinal win over Iceland, to be sure. The hosts will be able to count on tremendous support here as well, with fans expected to line the route to the national stadium and heavily outnumber their Portuguese counterparts in the stands during the match.
All of that is true, but if you look at the quality of the football that these two sides have played during the tournament you can argue Portugal is underrated here. True, Fernando Santos' side has won just once in 90 minutes -- their 2-0 victory over Wales in the semifinals -- but it's also true that they have yet to actually lose in 90 minutes either (their normal-time record reads 1-0-5).
While many seem to think that France now has unstoppable momentum, it's worth noting that Deschamps' side were actually lucky to get past Germany in the semifinals. France was totally outplayed during a first half that Germany dominated, and only the lucky break of getting a penalty on the stroke of halftime enabled France to go ahead 1-0. Without that goal, which had little to do with the hosts, who had ridden their luck on several occasions up until that point, the second-half would have played out in an entirely differently way.
Portugal was more convincing in their semifinal win over Wales, and they've looked difficult to beat throughout the knockout phase. France's Antoine Griezmann is the six-goal tournament top scorer, but Portugal has a big-name potential match-winner of their own in Cristiano Ronaldo. The Real Madrid star has scored three goals in the tournament, has more experience in big occasions than any player in the opposition ranks and he's bristling with the sort of pace and power that will test a France back line that continues to wobble.
Germany created a host of clear scoring chances in the semifinals, but they were unable to capitalize because leading scorer Mario Gomez was missing and longtime stalwart Thomas Muller was horribly out of form throughout the tournament. With Ronaldo more dangerous in the final third than any player on the Germany team sheet, France is unlikely to escape unscathed if they defend as unconvincingly as they have previously.
We expect a close game and it would be no surprise if France is crowned European champions for a third time in its history, but the short odds on a home triumph hold little appeal. Portugal is underrated and offers better value, so back the outsiders.
A second bet would be on the game having two or more goals. Predictions of a tense, low-scoring encounter may be wide of the mark, for the simple reason that neither side has been defensively impressive enough to suggest that shutting out the opposition is something they will be able to do.
France's back line was lucky to keep a clean sheet against Germany and conceded in their previous knockout games against the Republic of Ireland (2-1) and Iceland (5-2). Portugal kept a clean sheet against Wales, but they've conceded in three of their six games at the tournament, and it's likely they'll concede again as France is the tournament's top scorer as a team -- making them more dangerous than any side that Portugal has faced so far.
If you follow our advice by going high on the total line, you'll have the stats in your favor; nine of the 12 games that these two sides have played at the tournament have featured two goals or more in 90 minutes, so on that basis the chances of you losing your stakes are slim.
The knockout stage has generally produced a decent number of goals as well; six games have had more than two goals, six games have had exactly two goals and only two games have had fewer than two goals.
The pick: Portugal +0.5 Asian handicap (-118) and "over two goals" (+101)
