[h=1]How to bet the Home Run Derby[/h]Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- If you're used to having action every day (and, as the old saying goes, how else would you know if you're walking around lucky?), there's not many other choices than the Home Run Derby (8 p.m. ET on ESPN andWatchESPN) unless you want to handicap NBA summer league games from Vegas, arena football or Brazilian or Swedish soccer.
Even though this is an exhibition, that doesn't mean that we can't approach it as sharp handicappers. I'm certainly not suggesting to go crazy with bets on my picks or your own, but we should be able to find value.
My basic approach is that this is a wide-open contest in which anything can happen. A lot of people will look at past performances and try to find trends to base their picks on. I'm going to bring up some of those (for this who really want to see 'em) but mostly to then discredit them as a basis for predictions/bets since I really believe that no one should be more than about -120 against anyone else (after all, these are all professional power hitters and any one of them can get hot, especially considering they're basically taking batting practice).<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
For instance, while I'm going to make the case for underdogs, I could also make the point that the favorite usually doesn't win the Home Run Derby, yet Todd Frazier did win last year as the +375 favorite.
Also, you're likely to hear the stat that left-handed hitters have won seven of the past 10 Derbys and 14 of the past 19, yet if you jumped on that the past three years you would have missed out on Yoenis Cespedes in both 2013 and 2014 and Frazier last year.
Likewise, American League sluggers have won seven of the last nine and 10 of the last 14 Derbys.
Here are Monday's odds to win the Home Run Derby (from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook):
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Current Home Run Derby Odds</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody></aside>In theory, since I believe every player has just about an equal chance, they should all be 7-1. Obviously the oddsmakers believe the public would jump all over Stanton, Trumbo or Frazier at that price so they've been shaded lower. Frazier, now with the Chicago White Sox, won it last year on his home field when he was with the Cincinnati Reds, so I can see why some people would take a chance on San Diego's Wil Myers (though Ryne Sandberg in 1984 was the only other time a player used home-field advantage to win the Derby).
The only bet I'm considering is Robinson Cano at 8-1. He won this event in 2011, and experience does count for something as we've seen a few repeat winners with Ken Griffey Jr. (3) and Prince Fielder (2) and Cespedes (2). Otherwise, I'm looking to spread my money around more in the head-to-head matchups and expecting to come out ahead by hitting around .500 at plus prices, so let's look at those.
[h=3]Opening round[/h]No. 1 Mark Trumbo (-140) vs. No. 8 Corey Seager (+120): Trumbo is the No. 1 seed, as his 28 home runs are the most in this field, and they're also the most in the majors. I still don't think he should be this big of a favorite. There should be any pressure on Seager, a rookie from whom no one is expecting too much, but all the pressure will be on Trumbo, and I don't expect him to live up to the role of big favorite. Tuley's Take: Seager +120.
No. 4 Robinson Cano (+140) vs. No. 5 Giancarlo Stanton (-160): Yep, Stanton is the lower seed, but he is still favored (and the biggest favorite of the first round). There's a very good chance he hits the longest homers of the night, but besides earning extra time by hitting two 440-foot homers, there's no guarantee he hits the most. Again, Cano has the experience and a more consistent swing. Tuley's Take: Cano +140.
No. 3 Adam Duvall (-110) vs. No. 6 Wil Myers (-110): The Westgate set this at pick 'em, which makes sense. Both are first-timers in this event. Duvall has 23 homers this year while Myers has 19, but again, Myers is at home. I don't see any value here, so I'll pass. Tuley's Take: Pass.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>No. 2 Todd Frazier (-140) vs. No. 7 Carlos Gonzalez (+120):Frazier is favored because he's the defending champ and also because he has 25 homers to Gonzalez's 19. Actually, I don't feel as confident with this play as 14 of Gonzalez's 19 home runs have been in the thin air at Coors Field, but I'm still including it because I don't believe Frazier's odds should be this high.Tuley's Take: Gonzalez +120.
[h=3]Semifinals & finals[/h]These matchups won't be available long (if even offered by your book), but if offered, this is how I would look to play the ensuing rounds.
Cano vs. Trumbo semifinal: If this is the matchup, I'm sure everyone will be talking about what a big upset it was for Cano to beat Stanton and he'd still be a decent underdog against Trumbo. If it's Cano vs. Seager, I would sit out and be content with my first-round winnings.
Duvall/Myers winner vs. Frazier semifinal: If Frazier advances, he'll almost certainly be an inflated favorite over the Duvall/Myers winner. If Gonzalez upsets Frazier, I would probably ride him again.
Final: Obviously, my best-case scenario is Cano running the table. Unless I get a really attractive price on an underdog, I'll probably pass on the championship match, especially if I've already accumulated an overall profit.
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- If you're used to having action every day (and, as the old saying goes, how else would you know if you're walking around lucky?), there's not many other choices than the Home Run Derby (8 p.m. ET on ESPN andWatchESPN) unless you want to handicap NBA summer league games from Vegas, arena football or Brazilian or Swedish soccer.
Even though this is an exhibition, that doesn't mean that we can't approach it as sharp handicappers. I'm certainly not suggesting to go crazy with bets on my picks or your own, but we should be able to find value.
My basic approach is that this is a wide-open contest in which anything can happen. A lot of people will look at past performances and try to find trends to base their picks on. I'm going to bring up some of those (for this who really want to see 'em) but mostly to then discredit them as a basis for predictions/bets since I really believe that no one should be more than about -120 against anyone else (after all, these are all professional power hitters and any one of them can get hot, especially considering they're basically taking batting practice).<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
For instance, while I'm going to make the case for underdogs, I could also make the point that the favorite usually doesn't win the Home Run Derby, yet Todd Frazier did win last year as the +375 favorite.
Also, you're likely to hear the stat that left-handed hitters have won seven of the past 10 Derbys and 14 of the past 19, yet if you jumped on that the past three years you would have missed out on Yoenis Cespedes in both 2013 and 2014 and Frazier last year.
Likewise, American League sluggers have won seven of the last nine and 10 of the last 14 Derbys.
Here are Monday's odds to win the Home Run Derby (from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook):
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Giancarlo Stanton | 7-2 |
| Mark Trumbo | 9-2 |
| Todd Frazier | 9-2 |
| Adam Duvall | 7-1 |
| Wil Myers | 7-1 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 7-1 |
| Corey Seager | 8-1 |
| Robinson Cano | 8-1 |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Current Home Run Derby Odds</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody>
The only bet I'm considering is Robinson Cano at 8-1. He won this event in 2011, and experience does count for something as we've seen a few repeat winners with Ken Griffey Jr. (3) and Prince Fielder (2) and Cespedes (2). Otherwise, I'm looking to spread my money around more in the head-to-head matchups and expecting to come out ahead by hitting around .500 at plus prices, so let's look at those.
[h=3]Opening round[/h]No. 1 Mark Trumbo (-140) vs. No. 8 Corey Seager (+120): Trumbo is the No. 1 seed, as his 28 home runs are the most in this field, and they're also the most in the majors. I still don't think he should be this big of a favorite. There should be any pressure on Seager, a rookie from whom no one is expecting too much, but all the pressure will be on Trumbo, and I don't expect him to live up to the role of big favorite. Tuley's Take: Seager +120.
No. 4 Robinson Cano (+140) vs. No. 5 Giancarlo Stanton (-160): Yep, Stanton is the lower seed, but he is still favored (and the biggest favorite of the first round). There's a very good chance he hits the longest homers of the night, but besides earning extra time by hitting two 440-foot homers, there's no guarantee he hits the most. Again, Cano has the experience and a more consistent swing. Tuley's Take: Cano +140.
No. 3 Adam Duvall (-110) vs. No. 6 Wil Myers (-110): The Westgate set this at pick 'em, which makes sense. Both are first-timers in this event. Duvall has 23 homers this year while Myers has 19, but again, Myers is at home. I don't see any value here, so I'll pass. Tuley's Take: Pass.
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'*');}</script></body></html>**"uid":2,"hostPeerName":"http://espn.go.com","initialGeometry":"**\"windowCoords_t\":0,\"windowCoords_r\":1366,\"windowCoords_b\":728,\"windowCoords_l\":0,\"frameCoords_t\":3004.7916870117188,\"frameCoords_r\":1370,\"frameCoords_b\":3255.7916870117188,\"frameCoords_l\":1070,\"styleZIndex\":\"auto\",\"allowedExpansion_t\":0,\"allowedExpansion_r\":0,\"allowedExpansion_b\":0,\"allowedExpansion_l\":0,\"xInView\":1,\"yInView\":0.7817064262481325}","permissions":"**\"expandByOverlay\":false,\"expandByPush\":false,\"readCookie\":false,\"writeCookie\":false}","metadata":"**\"shared\":**\"sf_ver\":\"1-0-4\",\"ck_on\":1,\"flash_ver\":\"22.0.0\"}}","reportCreativeGeometry":false,"isDifferentSourceWindow":false}" scrolling="no" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" width="300" height="250" data-is-safeframe="true" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; vertical-align: bottom;"></iframe></article>No. 2 Todd Frazier (-140) vs. No. 7 Carlos Gonzalez (+120):Frazier is favored because he's the defending champ and also because he has 25 homers to Gonzalez's 19. Actually, I don't feel as confident with this play as 14 of Gonzalez's 19 home runs have been in the thin air at Coors Field, but I'm still including it because I don't believe Frazier's odds should be this high.Tuley's Take: Gonzalez +120.
[h=3]Semifinals & finals[/h]These matchups won't be available long (if even offered by your book), but if offered, this is how I would look to play the ensuing rounds.
Cano vs. Trumbo semifinal: If this is the matchup, I'm sure everyone will be talking about what a big upset it was for Cano to beat Stanton and he'd still be a decent underdog against Trumbo. If it's Cano vs. Seager, I would sit out and be content with my first-round winnings.
Duvall/Myers winner vs. Frazier semifinal: If Frazier advances, he'll almost certainly be an inflated favorite over the Duvall/Myers winner. If Gonzalez upsets Frazier, I would probably ride him again.
Final: Obviously, my best-case scenario is Cano running the table. Unless I get a really attractive price on an underdog, I'll probably pass on the championship match, especially if I've already accumulated an overall profit.
