[h=1]How to bet The Open[/h]Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The U.S. Open was very exciting here at the ESPN Chalk desk, as I had Dustin Johnson as my top value pick at 12-1 and he came through for his first major title.
Now, we certainly know that accolades are short-lived and this is a "what have you done for me lately?" business. But I was equally excited on June 20, the day after the U.S. Open, when the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Johnson at 12-1 for this week's British Open (er, The Open). I fully intended to bet Johnson to repeat.
What I didn't expect was Johnson to rally and beat Jason Day in the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational on June 30-July 3 (he was the 8-1 second choice to Day and, no, I didn't bet him). That caused the Westgate to drop Johnson's Open odds to 8-1, and though he has drifted up to 9-1, I wrote in the U.S. Open preview that "in a field of around 180 golfers, I'm not willing to take less than double-digit odds on any golfer." So we're going to look elsewhere this week.
The 145th Open returns to Royal Troon for the ninth time and the first time since 2004 when Todd Hamilton beat Ernie Els in a playoff. British bookmakers had Hamilton as high as 750-1. He was such an outsider that Vegas books at the time didn't have him on the board but instead part of the "field" bet at around 4-1. That shows how wide open the Open can be, and nowadays there are more books that offer most of the field as individual betting interests.
In fact, Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Info points out that a favorite hasn't won The Open since Tiger Woods in 2006 and these are odds for the past seven years (note: Adam Scott was the 10-1 fave when Rory McIlroy won in 2014):<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Winners of The Open since 2009
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</tbody></aside>I'm joined this week by ESPN Chalk colleague Will Harris to give you some more possible value plays. Now, we're not suggesting you bet all of these players, but as I wrote in the U.S. Open preview, we're getting big enough odds to make it OK to bet multiple players. So we're just giving you more options to add to your own portfolio.
(Note: All listed odds are from the Westgate SuperBook as of Monday, July 10, but shop around for the best number.)
Will Harris' value plays
Adam Scott (20-1): A chalkier play than we typically prefer, but there's as much to like here as there is with the even shorter-priced favorites. A two-time winner this spring, Scott leads the tour in strokes-gained: tee-to-green -- which is where the heavy lifting will be done at Royal Troon. And Scott has finished T3-T5-T10 in three Open Championships since coughing up a four-stroke, 54-hole lead to finish solo second to Els at Royal Lytham & St Annes in 2012.
Charl Schwartzel (60-1): Compare adjusted scoring averages during any slice of the past four months and you'll find the former Masters champ among the top 20 in The Open field. He has booked two wins this year against just one missed cut, and top 25s in five straight starts worldwide, including top 10s in his past two outings. Schwartzel is inside the top 10 on Tour in adjusted scoring average and strokes gained: tee-to-green, as well as SG: approach and SG: total. His overall form is way too strong for the generous pricing.
Bubba Watson (60-1): Royal Troon's official motto is "As Much By Skill As By Strength," so the bombers are not necessarily at the top of the list. Watson, however, has made every cut since winning at Riviera in January and still looks the part of a player who could claim another major, yet is priced higher than he has been in years. Damp conditions Friday and beyond could encourage the use of driver on more holes and benefit him in much the same way that moisture kept Dustin Johnson's drives from rolling off the Oakmont fairways and into trouble.
Dave Tuley's value plays
Zach Johnson (50-1): We started by talking about a Johnson repeating, but the defending Open champion is Zach Johnson. Yes, a year has passed since he won the 2015 Open on the Old Course at St. Andrews at 80-1, but I'll take a stab at him repeating at 50-1. This Johnson isn't a big hitter and gets overlooked when talking about the top players in the game, but he also has a Masters title, so he knows how to find the winner's circle. Granted, he hasn't won since last year's Open -- that's why we're still getting 50-1 -- but he has seven top-10 finishes, so he's often in contention and I would love to be holding a ticket on him over the weekend if he's among the final groups.
Scott Piercy (80-1): What got lost in Dustin Johnson's comeback to beat Day in the Bridgestone is the fact that Piercy actually finished in second place, one stroke behind Johnson. That was after Piercy also finished second in the U.S. Open, so his current form is second to no one (well, except maybe D. Johnson). Now, his lack of experience in The Open is a concern as he has only played once, missing the cut at Muirfield in 2013, but there's no one playing as well as he has been playing lately that's anywhere near these odds.
Henrik Stenson (25-1): Looking for a third value play, there are many great options out there, including Harris' three plays; Sergio Garcia at 20-1 (though watching him putt is nearly as painful as watching Dustin Johnson putt); Phil Mickelson at 30-1 (which is higher odds than we're used to getting with him); and Shane Lowry at 50-1 (because it's fun to live vicariously by cheering for a fellow chubby guy at 224 pounds). However, I'm going to go with Stenson. He hasn't won The Open yet -- and, in fact, is considered by many to hold the inglorious title of "best to have not won a major" -- but he has three top-three Open finishes and is coming off a victory in the BMW International Open on the European Tour in between majors.
Good luck this weekend, and every weekend.
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The U.S. Open was very exciting here at the ESPN Chalk desk, as I had Dustin Johnson as my top value pick at 12-1 and he came through for his first major title.
Now, we certainly know that accolades are short-lived and this is a "what have you done for me lately?" business. But I was equally excited on June 20, the day after the U.S. Open, when the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Johnson at 12-1 for this week's British Open (er, The Open). I fully intended to bet Johnson to repeat.
What I didn't expect was Johnson to rally and beat Jason Day in the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational on June 30-July 3 (he was the 8-1 second choice to Day and, no, I didn't bet him). That caused the Westgate to drop Johnson's Open odds to 8-1, and though he has drifted up to 9-1, I wrote in the U.S. Open preview that "in a field of around 180 golfers, I'm not willing to take less than double-digit odds on any golfer." So we're going to look elsewhere this week.
The 145th Open returns to Royal Troon for the ninth time and the first time since 2004 when Todd Hamilton beat Ernie Els in a playoff. British bookmakers had Hamilton as high as 750-1. He was such an outsider that Vegas books at the time didn't have him on the board but instead part of the "field" bet at around 4-1. That shows how wide open the Open can be, and nowadays there are more books that offer most of the field as individual betting interests.
In fact, Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Info points out that a favorite hasn't won The Open since Tiger Woods in 2006 and these are odds for the past seven years (note: Adam Scott was the 10-1 fave when Rory McIlroy won in 2014):<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Winners of The Open since 2009
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| YEAR | PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Zach Johnson | 80-1 |
| 2014 | Rory McIlroy | 12-1 |
| 2013 | Phil Michelson | 15-1 |
| 2012 | Ernie Els | 40-1 |
| 2011 | Darren Clarke | 150-1 |
| 2010 | Louis Oosthuizen | 200-1 |
| 2009 | Stewart Cink | 125-1 |
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(Note: All listed odds are from the Westgate SuperBook as of Monday, July 10, but shop around for the best number.)
Will Harris' value plays
Adam Scott (20-1): A chalkier play than we typically prefer, but there's as much to like here as there is with the even shorter-priced favorites. A two-time winner this spring, Scott leads the tour in strokes-gained: tee-to-green -- which is where the heavy lifting will be done at Royal Troon. And Scott has finished T3-T5-T10 in three Open Championships since coughing up a four-stroke, 54-hole lead to finish solo second to Els at Royal Lytham & St Annes in 2012.
Charl Schwartzel (60-1): Compare adjusted scoring averages during any slice of the past four months and you'll find the former Masters champ among the top 20 in The Open field. He has booked two wins this year against just one missed cut, and top 25s in five straight starts worldwide, including top 10s in his past two outings. Schwartzel is inside the top 10 on Tour in adjusted scoring average and strokes gained: tee-to-green, as well as SG: approach and SG: total. His overall form is way too strong for the generous pricing.
Bubba Watson (60-1): Royal Troon's official motto is "As Much By Skill As By Strength," so the bombers are not necessarily at the top of the list. Watson, however, has made every cut since winning at Riviera in January and still looks the part of a player who could claim another major, yet is priced higher than he has been in years. Damp conditions Friday and beyond could encourage the use of driver on more holes and benefit him in much the same way that moisture kept Dustin Johnson's drives from rolling off the Oakmont fairways and into trouble.
Dave Tuley's value plays
Zach Johnson (50-1): We started by talking about a Johnson repeating, but the defending Open champion is Zach Johnson. Yes, a year has passed since he won the 2015 Open on the Old Course at St. Andrews at 80-1, but I'll take a stab at him repeating at 50-1. This Johnson isn't a big hitter and gets overlooked when talking about the top players in the game, but he also has a Masters title, so he knows how to find the winner's circle. Granted, he hasn't won since last year's Open -- that's why we're still getting 50-1 -- but he has seven top-10 finishes, so he's often in contention and I would love to be holding a ticket on him over the weekend if he's among the final groups.
Scott Piercy (80-1): What got lost in Dustin Johnson's comeback to beat Day in the Bridgestone is the fact that Piercy actually finished in second place, one stroke behind Johnson. That was after Piercy also finished second in the U.S. Open, so his current form is second to no one (well, except maybe D. Johnson). Now, his lack of experience in The Open is a concern as he has only played once, missing the cut at Muirfield in 2013, but there's no one playing as well as he has been playing lately that's anywhere near these odds.
Henrik Stenson (25-1): Looking for a third value play, there are many great options out there, including Harris' three plays; Sergio Garcia at 20-1 (though watching him putt is nearly as painful as watching Dustin Johnson putt); Phil Mickelson at 30-1 (which is higher odds than we're used to getting with him); and Shane Lowry at 50-1 (because it's fun to live vicariously by cheering for a fellow chubby guy at 224 pounds). However, I'm going to go with Stenson. He hasn't won The Open yet -- and, in fact, is considered by many to hold the inglorious title of "best to have not won a major" -- but he has three top-three Open finishes and is coming off a victory in the BMW International Open on the European Tour in between majors.
Good luck this weekend, and every weekend.
