Forum: Ace-Ace's Handicapping Information Forum - Special Forum dedicated to The Rx's own Ace-Ace. All Things Ace-Ace inside.
Sponsored by Heritage Sports

Thread: CFL AFS-MyLine experiment, Part Deux…

Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
  1. #26  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    If you missed Ottawa at a Pick it still remains an investment play up to -2
    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #27  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    One win last night, and game two tonight currently sitting at -2.5 it still remains a Top AFS play, but no longer a 11 point investment play. That extra ½ point reduces it to a 9 point top play. However, because it was noted long before the line jump it will be scored as shown below.


    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS plays
    4-1, Top AFS plays --- Ottawa PK--- pending
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    6-3, 6 point basic plays
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays --- Ottawa PK--- pending
    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #28  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Location
    london
    Posts
    6
    Interesting...
    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #29  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    Quote Originally Posted by Indolmoseent View Post
    Interesting...
    Interesting indeed…………….
    Undeniably a solid week for the model, if the NFL numbers are this strong Oh!... My!... Goodness!

    No additional plays on games 3, 4 or 5 this week. In the past I typically wait until after the fourth game of the weekend is complete before I recalculate the stats for game number 5. But regardless of any corrections it’s obvious me there is no possibility of a play on Monday.

    FYI. I’m taking next week off heading to Mexico for my annual NFL season stress rectification. It’s a mid week departure and return, so I’ll have time post any week 12 plays. However, peaking ahead shows no early signs of a play next week.


    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS play
    5-1, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    6-3, 6 point basic plays
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    2-0, 11 point investment plays
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #30  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    Week 12 , just one Basic AFS play, Hamilton -4

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS play ---Hamilton -4 ---pending
    5-1, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    6-3, 6 point basic plays
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    2-0, 11 point investment plays
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #31  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    A basic play loss LW, but a Top / Investment this week.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-2, Basic AFS plays
    5-1, Top AFS plays ---Edmonton -5 ---pending

    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    6-3, 6 point basic plays
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    2-0, 11 point investment plays ---Edmonton -5 ---pending
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #32  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    Wow the R&R was fantastic, but from the comfort of my beach chair I pulled the trigger way to quick on that last post. Fact is I’m sincerely sorry to anyone that followed that play. I was using a VPN connection to my desktop via my phone literally on the beach and somehow didn’t complete the entire recalculation process with the correct data set. I’m guilty of the infamous “user error”. Edmonton was a play but only a basic AFS and 9 point AFS MyLine top play; of course the record stands as posted because the model is only as good as the Ignoramus that created it. The error was very obvious today when I saw the number of games played jump by two rather than just one game. Again…. apologies to anyone following.
    Lines are out early this week but NO plays.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-2, Basic AFS plays
    5-2, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    6-3, 6 point basic plays
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    2-1, 11 point investment plays
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #33  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    Week 15 CFL,
    Calgary -3 as a Top AFS play.
    Toronto + 3.5 is a a 9 point Top AFS MyLine play
    Also Ottawa +6 is a 6 point basic AFS MyLine play

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-2, Basic AFS plays
    5-2, Top AFS plays ------- Calgary -3 Pending-------
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    6-3, 6 point basic plays ------ Ottawa +6 Pending ---------
    0-0, 9 point top plays ------ Toronto + 3.5 Pending ---------
    2-1, 11 point investment plays
    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #34  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    Week 16 CFL,
    Last week
    Huge AFS Top Play Winner with Calgary Friday
    AFS basic loss on Ottawa Saturday
    Toronto was a 9 point Top AFS MyLine Loss Sunday

    This week
    Two strong system scores this week Calgary and Ottawa but too many points to lay ….
    However, Ottawa -6.5 does qualify as a Basic AFS play.


    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-2, Basic AFS plays ------ Ottawa -6.5 Pending ---------
    6-2, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    6-4, 6 point basic plays
    0-1, 9 point top plays
    2-1, 11 point investment plays
    Reply With Quote  
     

  10. #35  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    10
    Thanks for the winners. CFL fan. Calgary has best QB by far & Montreal have not thrown in the towel.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  11. #36  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    Quote Originally Posted by squeky View Post
    Thanks for the winners. CFL fan. Calgary has best QB by far & Montreal have not thrown in the towel.
    Thanks squeky, so there is life on the other side of this monitor screen….
    Calgary ”by far” hum? Not sure about that, the RedBlacks have a very efficient QB play. And Montréal –fork’um – Calgary twice and Hamilton on the road for all the marbles I don’t see it.

    It wasn’t my intention to beg for attention but only to share winning plays. I know units haven’t been mentioned in this CFL thread but applying the same unit strategy I use on the NFL side. The CFL Experiment Part Deux is currently up 21.7 units, and without the regrettable SNAFU week 13, plus 34 units. With only 4 weeks remaining most touts might slow play things preserving a winning record but not here, we’ll ride this to the end save for week 20 when starters are rested pending the playoffs.

    The AFS model plays for Week 5 NFL are out.
    But it’s not appropriate to post them here within Ace’s threads. It’s a pay per view site. But if you go here -- https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/teamfball2_5 -- and read the bio you should be able to figure out the correct sides and units for the system plays. If not shoot me a pm.


    A wk5 basic AFS play is here -- https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/teamfball6_5 --

    And the wk5 Top AFS MyLine play is here -- https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/teamfball_ML --
    Reply With Quote  
     

  12. #37  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    Quote Originally Posted by teamfball View Post

    and without the regrettable SNAFU week 13, plus 34 units.
    I should proof read this shit…Sorry....... without the regrettable SNAFU week 13, plus 29.4 units.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  13. #38  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    2,511
    Good luck this week
    Reply With Quote  
     

  14. #39  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    AFS NFL scores 2 big winners out of the gate.
    Anyone watching knows I’ve been seeking additional factors like motivation, physical or emotional edges to add to my statistical model.
    Quote Originally Posted by teamfball View Post
    …..but what skills are needed to turn a basic play into a cash cow, and how does one find ways to pull back the reins and get off the investment plays when you need to most? I hope to figure this out very soon.
    This little nugget was used to motivate me to look much deeper into basic play I normally overlook.
    Quote Originally Posted by teamfball View Post
    So for what it’s worth LW the Texans had a Phony Win. This could be another reason to look at the Vikes this week.
    Ultimately I wagered o the Vikings as if it were a Top play. Yahoo..! guess I need to get busy an have a second look at those 18 pointers in his “Bettor’s tool kit”. Although for tracking purposes the Viking cover is graded as a basic play.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    NFL---AFS plays
    1-0, Basic AFS plays
    0-0, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    NFL---AFS MyLine plays
    0-0, 9 point basic plays
    1-0, 11 point Top plays
    0-0, Consensus Investment plays
    ===========================
    --------------------------The CFL basic play did suffer a loss with Ottawa earlier Friday night.
    CFL---AFS plays
    1-3, Basic AFS plays
    6-2, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    CFL---AFS MyLine plays
    6-4, 6 point basic plays
    0-1, 9 point top plays
    2-1, 11 point investment plays
    Reply With Quote  
     

  15. #40  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    This week 17 CFL , week 6 NFL.
    Again Calgary with incredibly strong system scores this week.
    Last week they covered 9 , but 15 this week holy crap just too many points to lay ….
    No CFL plays this week, but NFL AFS plays are posted on pickmonitor. Woof, woof.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    NFL---AFS plays
    1-0, Basic AFS plays
    0-0, Top AFS plays ----Pending----
    -------------------------------------------
    NFL---AFS MyLine plays
    0-0, 9 point basic plays ----Pending----
    1-0, 11 point Top plays ----Pending----
    0-0, Consensus Investment plays ----Pending----
    ===========================
    CFL---AFS plays
    1-3, Basic AFS plays
    6-2, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    CFL---AFS MyLine plays
    6-4, 6 point basic plays
    0-1, 9 point top plays
    2-1, 11 point investment plays
    Reply With Quote  
     

  16. #41  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    This week 18 CFL.
    So again … again…again…..Calgary with incredibly strong system scores this week. They covered the big numbers -9 then -15……2 weeks in a row. But a ridiculous -18 …Oh my…! Just way too many points to lay …. However, the system had them both weeks maybe I should reconsider the point threshold for system plays…NOT.!
    No CFL plays this week………
    ………………………
    This week 7 NFL.
    Two HUGE model covers last week with ATL and DAL
    Now…I know how valuable the SOS factor is to the AFS model!
    Quote Originally Posted by teamfball View Post
    This year AFS is better than ever with the addition of opponent strength, whereby each scoring category is adjusted according to all the opponents played corresponding strength or weakness. So now the system scoring is normalized with the strength of teams played factor, especially the early season predictions. The concept has eluded me for years, not wanting to settle for a simplified SOS based on wins and losses but a game by game measure of opponent strength.
    Analysis of the numbers revealed that Seattle’s pass defense wasn’t as good as it looked on paper because of the weak passing opponents in their first four games allowing ATL to be the play. ATL was also the first consensus system play of the season as well, making consensus plays 19-3 in 6 years.
    ……………………….
    Sadly with no CFL plays this week and likely none next week, this money making thread is coming to an end.
    I can’t justly continue to talk about and provide links to my NFL plays here within someone else’s thread group.

    Good luck to everyone.
    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    NFL---AFS plays
    1-0-1, Basic AFS plays
    1-0, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    NFL---AFS MyLine plays
    1-0, 9 point basic plays
    2-0, 11 point Top plays
    1-0, Consensus Investment plays
    ===========================
    CFL---AFS plays
    1-3, Basic AFS plays
    6-2, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    CFL---AFS MyLine plays
    6-4, 6 point basic plays
    0-1, 9 point top plays
    2-1, 11 point investment plays
    Reply With Quote  
     

  17. #42  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    canada
    Posts
    73
    Just saw your thread . Well done. Just wondering why u don't put it the cfl forum? There is 2 weeks left in the regular season
    Reply With Quote  
     

  18. #43  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    This week 19 CFL…..Final week for AFS………..

    Yes Calgary covered the big numbers -9, -15, now -17 three weeks in a row. You guessed it Calgary scores high once more but the line is still too tall yet again, especially given they have a playoff lock and 2 bye weeks on deck.
    We do have one final play after all.
    British Columbia -2.5 is a Top AFS play and a 11 point Investment AFS MyLine play.
    I would lock this play up ASAP…!

    ………………………

    There were just two NFL basic plays week seven, ATL basic AFS lost, and NOR basic AFSML covered.


    YTD record
    -----------------------
    NFL---AFS plays
    1-1-1, Basic AFS plays
    1-0, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    NFL---AFS MyLine plays
    2-0, 9 point basic plays
    2-0, 11 point Top plays
    1-0, Consensus Investment plays
    ===========================
    CFL---AFS plays
    1-3, Basic AFS plays
    6-2, Top AFS plays -----BC-2.5 pending----
    -------------------------------------------
    CFL---AFS MyLine plays
    6-4, 6 point basic plays
    0-1, 9 point top plays
    2-1, 11 point investment plays ----BC-2.5 pending----
    -----------------------------------------
    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’

    Quote Originally Posted by centreline View Post
    Just saw your thread . Well done. Just wondering why u don't put it the cfl forum? There is 2 weeks left in the regular season
    You’re absolutely right, this was the wrong place.
    I’ll take your advice next season.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  19. #44  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    The final Double-Tap for the AFS CFL experiment ends in a big cover as British Columbia brings home the bacon again as Top AFS play and AFS MyLine Investment plays.

    Week 20 CFL…..Final week for AFS………..As expected the final regular season week has way too many what if type scenarios to programmatically predict the out comes for my money.

    Now it’s time to gloat, the experiment was a huge success. !!
    Self graded A- , as a matter of fact, only because I made a calculation error while sitting on my ass sipping a martini under a palapa in Mexico week 14, otherwise this would be an A+ grade all the way.
    ‘Adios Amigos’

    Final 2016 CFL record ......................as posted ........w/o SNAFU
    ---------------------------------------
    CFL---AFS plays
    1-3, Basic AFS plays ............................-230 ..........-340
    7-2, Top AFS plays ..............................2400 .........2950
    -------------------------------------------
    CFL---AFS MyLine plays
    6-4, 6 point basic plays .........................160 ...........160
    0-1, 9 point top plays .......................... -220 .........-440
    3-1, 11 point investment plays................950..........1500
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    ..........................................................30.6 .........38.3....units
    ---top plays only---the way I play'um---- .31.3.........40.1....units

    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’
    Reply With Quote  
     

  20. #45  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    2,511
    Nice work. See you next year
    Reply With Quote  
     

  21. #46  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    PA
    Posts
    199
    It’s official, With the NFL and CFL drafts are behind us and OTA’s and mini camps here, the season can’t come soon enough to suit me. I’ll be posting AFS system plays over in the ‘other football form’ this year. CFL starts June 22 and the system needs at least 3 weeks of data before I pull the trigger. So the first play after the week 3 calculations could possibly come Monday July 10th for the week 4 games.


    AFS….. Applied Football Strategies
    ‘Honesty integrity and the pursuit of profit is teamfball’
    Reply With Quote  
     

  22. #47  
    Dice, Sports & Cocktails powerz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    The North Shore
    Posts
    10,791
    Was following along last season.....looking forward to your contributions to the cfl forum after week 3.
    Reply With Quote  
     

Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •