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Thread: CFL AFS-MyLine experiment, Part DeuxÖ

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  1. #1 CFL AFS-MyLine experiment, Part DeuxÖ 
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    Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?

    Ace asked that I start a new thread so not to confuse my AFS version of MyLine with his long standing and well documented MyLine thread. If the CFL interests you it began here--http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=352051&page=47&p=11154963&viewfull=1#post11154963

    I doubt anyone followed my AFS system NFL plays which were a colossal bust in 2015.
    However, the CFL experiment was a success go figure..? CFL-----AFS-MyLINE 11pt plays finished the regular season at 9-3. That's with zero handicapping, just the plays win or loose.

    One play this week Ottawa Redbacks pick-um
    The Redbacks hold a clear advantage in four of the nine system categories.
    Qualifying for both a top AFS and AFS-MyLine +11 play this week.

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  2. #2  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Don't you need a few weeks of stats like the NFL to get the value? Let's see what happens
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  3. #3  
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    Sure do, itís week four in the CFL most teams have had a bye week except for Ottawa and Toronto each having 3 games under their belt before last night. Sure I feel more confident around weeks 8 or 9 but who can wait half the season when there are so few plays to begin with.

    Top AFS 1-0
    AFS ML+11 1-0

    This year AFS is better than ever with the addition of opponent strength, whereby each scoring category is adjusted according to all the opponents played corresponding strength or weakness. So now the system scoring is normalized with the strength of teams played factor, especially the early season predictions. The concept has eluded me for years, not wanting to settle for a simplified SOS based on wins and losses but a game by game measure of opponent strength.
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  4. #4  
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    A nice win to begin the long-awaited football year but no wagers for me this week, Iíll wait for better opportunities. Because Iím not a skilled handicapper the AFS model is designed for the cream to rise to the top and I see none this week, though Ottawa comes close.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    0-0, Basic AFS lean --- Calgary -5, Ottawa -6--- pending
    1-0, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    4-4, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
    0-0, 6 point basic lean --- Calgary -5, Ottawa -6, Montreal +6 --- pending
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
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  5. #5  
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    Another week and no wagers for me, Iíll be tolerant while the model collects more data and wait for a better opportunity.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS lean
    1-0, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    8-4, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
    1-2, 6 point basic lean --- British Columbia +5.5 --- pending
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
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  6. #6  
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    The past week was a positive one for the model as Iím seeing other encouraging signs that my numbers are good. We covered just one basic 6pt AFS MyLine play but more importantly another adaptation of AFS that has shown promise in limited back testing did exceptional covering plays in all three sectors basic, top and investment.

    This week British Columbia -1.5 is a Top AFS play and a 6 point basic AFS MyLine lean.
    Got mine in early, suggest you do the same as this will likely go higher. No line for the Saskatchewan vs. Calgary game but the numbers donít support a play unless Calgary is pick-um or better which wonít happen so Iíll hang my hat on the BC Lions this week.


    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS lean
    1-0, Top AFS plays --- British Columbia -1.5 --- pending
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    11-5, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
    2-2, 6 point basic lean --- British Columbia -1.5 --- pending
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays

    CFL Key Numbers: 3, 2, 4, 1, 7, 5, 10, 6, 8, 9, 18, 11, 13, 21
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  7. #7  
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    Another positive week for the model cashing with the Top play British Columbia.
    Once again this week British Columbia -2.5 is a Top AFS play and a 6 point basic AFS MyLine lean.

    Just for tracking purposes only because the second adaptation of AFS has shown good promise
    Iíll also call Montreal +7 a AFS2 MyLine, 9 point top play.


    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS lean
    2-0, Top AFS plays lean --- British Columbia -2.5 --- pending
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    14-6, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
    3-2, 6 point basic lean --- British Columbia -2.5 --- pending
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS2 MyLine plays --- Unofficial for tracking purposes only ---
    12-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
    3-2, 6 point basic lean
    1-0, 9 point top plays --- Montreal +7 --- pending
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
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  8. #8  
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    Again, another positive week for the model cashing with the Top play British Columbia.
    Making the AFS Top plays now 3-0, and the MyLine version of AFS 5-2

    However, a second variation --- Unofficial for tracking purposes only --- referred to as AFS2 MyLine experienced a loss in the 9 point top play category, but this is how new angles are found. So I will continue to accrue data and test until the results become clearer one way or the other.

    Overall, I canít help but feel excitement as the NFL season approaches. It looks like the AFS rebuild with the added strength of opponents played has been a positive addition. At this point I can only hope that the NFL model numbers look this prophetic after week eight.

    YTD record thru week 8 CFL
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS lean
    3-0, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    13-7, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold
    Ö.sorry looks like I had a typo along the way, this should always reflect the record below. Meaning, 13 games MyLine was within 6 points of the betting line. And 7 games were above 6 points of the betting line as in the 5-2 record below.
    _
    4-2, 6 point basic lean
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS2 MyLine plays --- Unofficial for tracking purposes only ---
    12-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
    3-2, 6 point basic lean
    1-1, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
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  9. #9  
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    Quote Originally Posted by teamfball View Post
    Again, another positive week for the model cashing with the Top play British Columbia.
    Making the AFS Top plays now 3-0, and the MyLine version of AFS 5-2

    However, a second variation --- Unofficial for tracking purposes only --- referred to as AFS2 MyLine experienced a loss in the 9 point top play category, but this is how new angles are found. So I will continue to accrue data and test until the results become clearer one way or the other.

    Overall, I can’t help but feel excitement as the NFL season approaches. It looks like the AFS rebuild with the added strength of opponents played has been a positive addition. At this point I can only hope that the NFL model numbers look this prophetic after week eight.

    YTD record thru week 8 CFL
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS lean
    3-0, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    13-7, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold
    ….sorry looks like I had a typo along the way, this should always reflect the record below. Meaning, 13 games MyLine was within 6 points of the betting line. And 7 games were above 6 points of the betting line as in the 5-2 record below.
    _
    4-2, 6 point basic lean
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS2 MyLine plays --- Unofficial for tracking purposes only ---
    12-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
    3-2, 6 point basic lean
    1-1, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
    it would be good to post the plays the day they play.
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  10. #10  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACE-ACE View Post
    it would be good to post the plays the day they play.
    Are you suggesting that 5 days in advance is too early to post a play see post #7, or are you saying I
    should post them again the day of the game?

    ++++++++++++++ here are this weeks projections.
    The only possible AFS play this week is Ottawa but line will certainly be too high to qualify as a Top play, and the ML feature is line dependent. So below are the AFS MyLine model line projections, now itís a waiting game to see what the books think.
    Ottawa -10.5
    Calgary Ė4
    Edmonton -2
    Hamilton -6
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  11. #11  
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    Nice work with the CFL G.

    I hope all is well with the family and I wish you the best this NFL season.



    Ottawa -10.5
    Calgary –4
    Edmonton -2
    Hamilton -6

    **noted and gonna follow along for the free ride.
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  12. #12  
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    Quote Originally Posted by teamfball View Post
    Are you suggesting that 5 days in advance is too early to post a play see post #7, or are you saying I
    should post them again the day of the game?

    ++++++++++++++ here are this weeks projections.
    The only possible AFS play this week is Ottawa but line will certainly be too high to qualify as a Top play, and the ML feature is line dependent. So below are the AFS MyLine model line projections, now it’s a waiting game to see what the books think.
    Ottawa -10.5
    Calgary –4
    Edmonton -2
    Hamilton -6
    If you got the time the day of the game.
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  13. #13  
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    Ottawa -10.5 vs. -9 ---- Although Ottawa is dominate in the eyes of the model, 9 is just too much to lay in the CFL, and the bookie line is to close to AFS MyLine

    Calgary Ė4 vs. BC -3 ----This adds up to a 7 point difference and therefore is enough to be a AFS MyLine 6 point basic lean.

    Edmonton -2 vs. -3 ---- the bookie line is to close to AFS MyLine

    Hamilton -6 vs. -10 ---- A four point difference is not enough to be a AFS MyLine play, weíre looking for 6 or more, preferably 9 or 11.


    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS lean
    3-0, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    16-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold
    4-2, 6 point basic lean ------ Calgary +3 --- pending
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS2 MyLine plays --- Unofficial for tracking purposes only ---
    16-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
    3-2, 6 point basic lean
    1-1, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
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  14. #14  
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    Quote Originally Posted by teamfball View Post
    Ottawa -10.5 vs. -9 ---- Although Ottawa is dominate in the eyes of the model, 9 is just too much to lay in the CFL, and the bookie line is to close to AFS MyLine

    Calgary –4 vs. BC -3 ----This adds up to a 7 point difference and therefore is enough to be a AFS MyLine 6 point basic lean.

    Edmonton -2 vs. -3 ---- the bookie line is to close to AFS MyLine

    Hamilton -6 vs. -10 ---- A four point difference is not enough to be a AFS MyLine play, we’re looking for 6 or more, preferably 9 or 11.


    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS lean
    3-0, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    16-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold
    4-2, 6 point basic lean ------ Calgary +3 --- pending
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS2 MyLine plays --- Unofficial for tracking purposes only ---
    16-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
    3-2, 6 point basic lean
    1-1, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
    Calgary –4 vs. BC -3 ----This adds up to a 7 point difference and therefore is enough to be a AFS MyLine 6 point basic lean.

    So you are calling the 7 pt diff the diff of Cal-4 vs Cal +3 ?
    or Cal -4 vs BC -3 ?

    I think you meant cal - 4 projected vs Cal+3 actual. Just making sure.
    So now it's Cal +2' vs BC -2'.

    How much weight are you putting off that hook from 3 ?
    +2' is such an ugly # from a +3 !!!


    Finally what I am getting at here is the key # which my line does not account for. My Line is just a starting point and I fully understand that.

    So..... With that in mind, please take into consideration the following fact regarding the CFL before you answer the question on the +2'.

    " A more diverse scoring system of the CFL compared to the NFL dilutes the frequency with which games are decided by exactly seven points, but there does remain a GREATER likelihood that the margin of victory will be exactly three points.Nearly 11% of games were decided by exactly three points between 2008/13 and 16 matches were decided by that margin during the 2015 regular season".

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  15. #15  
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    In my opinion, the hook off or on the 3 in CFL is simply setting one up for a much wanted or unwanted surprise. I apologize for being long winded and for joining your thread uninvited. The ultimate goal here is to make $$ and this is a pretty important topic especially considering the years of work that you have invested already.

    Once again.... Good luck.
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  16. #16  
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    Quote Originally Posted by QUEEN OF HEARTS View Post
    I think you meant cal - 4 projected vs Cal+3 actual. Just making sure.
    *****Correct***** Letís not argue over semantics;

    Quote Originally Posted by QUEEN OF HEARTS View Post
    So now it's Cal +2' vs BC -2'.
    No, Cal +3 was readily available at the time, so Cal +3 is the playÖÖ..end of story.

    @ QOH, Obviously +3 is better than +2.5 . But if you were to use you time more wisely and do research rather than copy and paste ideas from others you might find that in roughly nine and one half years, approximately 735 CFL games landed on 3pts_22 times, 2pts _21 times, and 1pt._27 times.

    Again @ QOH, giving our past history I would appreciate if you didnít hijack this thread.
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  17. #17  
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    Sorry new that didn't look right

    In nine and one half years, approximately 735 CFL games landed on
    3pts_76 times,
    2pts _40 times,
    1pt._38 times.
    4pts._41 times.
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  18. #18  
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    Okay itís Thursday the Calgary play isnít until late Friday night. As stated Tuesday Calgary +3 is a AFS MyLine basic play, not a Top or Investment play but a basic play. So why do I love this particular play so much? Iíll probably regret this, because my claim all along has been Iím not a handicapper just a numbers guy. So Iíll just list some of the interesting statistical things Iím seeing.


    • These are the 2 best overall teams in the league
    • This will be the 3rd meeting this year, normal for a 9 team league
      • Wk 1 = Calgary -3 lost by 2 in BC Ė BC Cover
        • No model data available Wk 1

      • Wk 6 = Calgary -5.5 won by 3 in CAL Ė BC Cover
        • The model chose BC +5.5 and CoveredÖ


    • Ö.fast forward to week number nine.
    • Wk 9 ; why is Calgary +3 suddenly a pooch in BC..?
      • Yeah! BC is good Iíve watched the lions the last 3 weeks, they have been a BIG play for the model each of the last 2 weeks; 2 Covers; And a Basic play 3 weeks ago when they last played Calgary; Cover
      • The young BC QB is throwing the ball allover the yard; But Calgary matches that with a very good Pass defense and an equally talented QB, Oh and a better run Off. & Def. too!
      • Bottom line, the model now has Calgary as the better team.
        • BC is scoring in the same categories it did in Wk 6
        • But CAL now scores with higher scoring categories and now trumps BC


    • Ask again, why is Calgary +3 suddenly a pooch?


    • I see no significant injuries
    • Is this line an over reaction to BCís win last week against a talented Hamilton squad?
    • Is it because Calgary is coming off a less than impressive home/away match-ups with the worst team in the league?

    Can anyone explain this to me?
    Ohí when I say anyone I donít really mean anyone @QOH
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  19. #19  
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    Okay itís Friday game day CFL week 9, the game is in British Columbia so a late start tonight.
    As posted Tuesday Calgary +3 is a AFS MyLine basic play and will be recorded as such.
    FYI
    Iíve talked myself down from personally wagering like this is anything other than a basic play.

    1. My claim all along has been Iím not a handicapper
    2. BC is improving, with a win last week against a talented Hamilton squad?
    3. Calgary is coming off a less than impressive home/away match-ups with the worst team in the league.



    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS lean
    3-0, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    16-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold
    4-2, 6 point basic plays ------ Calgary +3 --- pending
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
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  20. #20  
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    Ö..a Calgary blowout.
    What do I say, I should have stuck to my guns.
    Quote Originally Posted by teamfball View Post
    So why do I love this particular play so much? Iíll just list some of the interesting statistical things Iím seeing. Iíll Ask again, why is Calgary +3 suddenly a pooch?
    Guess thatís why Iím not a handicapperÖ. yet. Donít get me wrong it was a low level action play for the model but my analysis of the match-up from inside the model was spot on, and most importantly the model continues to spit out winners. All statistically based models can lead you to plays but what skills are needed to turn a basic play into a cash cow, and how does one find ways to pull back the reins and get off the investment plays when you need to most? I hope to figure this out very soon. When I look ahead to next week I see two potential TOP plays, and they both look very uncomfortable already. But after what Iíve been seeing from the model who am I to question the numbers? So stay tuned, when the lines come out we may have an opportunity to catch the best of the opening numbers.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS lean
    3-0, Top AFS plays
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    5-2, 6 point basic plays
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
    -------------------------------------------
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  21. #21  
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    I donít think I could ask for a better start to the season for the AFS model. Just a heads up in case youíre thinking of jumping on board, these systems have a way of regressing to the mean. I remember the 2013 NFL season when I first figured how I was going to evaluate or score my data into something meaningful for ATS purposes, that year AFS began a 12-3 run only to finish the season at a 62% cover rate.

    The only 2 possible AFS Top plays week 10 are Ottawa and Edmonton but Edmonton -13.5 is too rich for the AFS model. Ottawa however, at -3 is currently a Basic AFS play. But should the line fall to -2.5 or better it then becomes a Top AFS play and a MyLine 6 point basic play.
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  22. #22  
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    Well there are enough Ottawa -2.5ís out there to make it official a Top AFS play and a AFS MyLine 6 point basic play.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS play
    3-0, Top AFS plays ----- Ottawa -2.5------Pending
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    5-2, 6 point basic plays ----- Ottawa -2.5------Pending
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
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  23. #23  
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    Game Day ---
    Ottawa dropped to -2 and remains an official AFS TOP play plus AFS MyLine 6 point basic play.

    Interestingly, much like last week the model has proven to be very accurate regarding both of these teams.
    Back in week 4, Ottawa was a AFS Top play and a 11pt. AFS MyLine Investment play. More recently in weeks 7 and 8 both, British Columbia was the AFS TOP play plus AFS MyLine 6 point basic play twice.

    So now even though the market is moving against the play, I have no reason to think the model will let us down.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS play
    3-0, Top AFS plays ----- Ottawa -2.5------Pending
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    5-2, 6 point basic plays ----- Ottawa -2.5------Pending
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
    -------------------------------------------
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  24. #24  
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    A loss for the model, but still 4-1 on plays that really matter to the success or failure of this experiment.

    This being Labor day week for both CA and the US there will be 5 games with a 9 team league this week.
    The first being Wednesday BC vs. Toronto, so weíll concentrate on the first 4 games then recalculate the numbers for Toronto playing again on Monday.

    British Columbia -2.5 for the third time this year; is both a Top AFS play and a AFS MyLine 6 point basic play. Get it earlyÖ!

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS play
    3-1, Top AFS plays --- British Columbia -2.5 --- pending
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    5-3, 6 point basic plays --- British Columbia -2.5 --- pending
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays
    -------------------------------------------
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  25. #25  
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    Looks like Ottawa opens at a pick-um , therefore, another big play this week.

    YTD record
    -----------------------
    AFS plays
    1-1, Basic AFS play
    3-1, Top AFS plays --- British Columbia -2.5 and Ottawa PK--- pending
    -------------------------------------------
    AFS MyLine plays
    5-3, 6 point basic plays --- British Columbia -2.5 --- pending
    0-0, 9 point top plays
    1-0, 11 point investment plays --- Ottawa PK--- pending
    -------------------------------------------
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