CFL AFS-MyLine experiment, Part Deux…

teamfball · Jul 13, 2016

Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?

Ace asked that I start a new thread so not to confuse my AFS version of MyLine with his long standing and well documented MyLine thread. If the CFL interests you it began here--http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=352051&page=47&p=11154963&viewfull=1#post11154963

I doubt anyone followed my AFS system NFL plays which were a colossal bust in 2015.
However, the CFL experiment was a success go figure..? CFL-----AFS-MyLINE 11pt plays finished the regular season at 9-3. That's with zero handicapping, just the plays win or loose.

One play this week Ottawa Redbacks pick-um
The Redbacks hold a clear advantage in four of the nine system categories.
Qualifying for both a top AFS and AFS-MyLine +11 play this week.

ACE-ACE · Jul 14, 2016

Don't you need a few weeks of stats like the NFL to get the value? Let's see what happens

teamfball · Jul 14, 2016

Sure do, it’s week four in the CFL most teams have had a bye week except for Ottawa and Toronto each having 3 games under their belt before last night. Sure I feel more confident around weeks 8 or 9 but who can wait half the season when there are so few plays to begin with.

Top AFS 1-0
AFS ML+11 1-0

This year AFS is better than ever with the addition of opponent strength, whereby each scoring category is adjusted according to all the opponents played corresponding strength or weakness. So now the system scoring is normalized with the strength of teams played factor, especially the early season predictions. The concept has eluded me for years, not wanting to settle for a simplified SOS based on wins and losses but a game by game measure of opponent strength.

teamfball · Jul 19, 2016

A nice win to begin the long-awaited football year but no wagers for me this week, I’ll wait for better opportunities. Because I’m not a skilled handicapper the AFS model is designed for the cream to rise to the top and I see none this week, though Ottawa comes close.

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
0-0, Basic AFS lean --- Calgary -5, Ottawa -6--- pending
1-0, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
4-4, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
0-0, 6 point basic lean --- Calgary -5, Ottawa -6, Montreal +6 --- pending
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays

teamfball · Jul 26, 2016

Another week and no wagers for me, I’ll be tolerant while the model collects more data and wait for a better opportunity.

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS lean
1-0, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
8-4, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
1-2, 6 point basic lean --- British Columbia +5.5 --- pending
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays

teamfball · Aug 1, 2016

The past week was a positive one for the model as I’m seeing other encouraging signs that my numbers are good. We covered just one basic 6pt AFS MyLine play but more importantly another adaptation of AFS that has shown promise in limited back testing did exceptional covering plays in all three sectors basic, top and investment.

This week British Columbia -1.5 is a Top AFS play and a 6 point basic AFS MyLine lean.
Got mine in early, suggest you do the same as this will likely go higher. No line for the Saskatchewan vs. Calgary game but the numbers don’t support a play unless Calgary is pick-um or better which won’t happen so I’ll hang my hat on the BC Lions this week.

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS lean
1-0, Top AFS plays --- British Columbia -1.5 --- pending
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
11-5, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
2-2, 6 point basic lean --- British Columbia -1.5 --- pending
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays

CFL Key Numbers: 3, 2, 4, 1, 7, 5, 10, 6, 8, 9, 18, 11, 13, 21

teamfball · Aug 8, 2016

Another positive week for the model cashing with the Top play British Columbia.
Once again this week British Columbia -2.5 is a Top AFS play and a 6 point basic AFS MyLine lean.

Just for tracking purposes only because the second adaptation of AFS has shown good promise
I’ll also call Montreal +7 a AFS2 MyLine, 9 point top play.

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS lean
2-0, Top AFS plays lean --- British Columbia -2.5 --- pending
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
14-6, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
3-2, 6 point basic lean --- British Columbia -2.5 --- pending
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS2 MyLine plays --- Unofficial for tracking purposes only ---
12-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
3-2, 6 point basic lean
1-0, 9 point top plays --- Montreal +7 --- pending
1-0, 11 point investment plays

teamfball · Aug 14, 2016

Again, another positive week for the model cashing with the Top play British Columbia.
Making the AFS Top plays now 3-0, and the MyLine version of AFS 5-2

However, a second variation --- Unofficial for tracking purposes only --- referred to as AFS2 MyLine experienced a loss in the 9 point top play category, but this is how new angles are found. So I will continue to accrue data and test until the results become clearer one way or the other.

Overall, I can’t help but feel excitement as the NFL season approaches. It looks like the AFS rebuild with the added strength of opponents played has been a positive addition. At this point I can only hope that the NFL model numbers look this prophetic after week eight.

YTD record thru week 8 CFL
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS lean
3-0, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
13-7, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold
….sorry looks like I had a typo along the way, this should always reflect the record below. Meaning, 13 games MyLine was within 6 points of the betting line. And 7 games were above 6 points of the betting line as in the 5-2 record below.
_
4-2, 6 point basic lean
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS2 MyLine plays --- Unofficial for tracking purposes only ---
12-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
3-2, 6 point basic lean
1-1, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays

ACE-ACE · Aug 14, 2016

teamfball said:
Again, another positive week for the model cashing with the Top play British Columbia.
Making the AFS Top plays now 3-0, and the MyLine version of AFS 5-2

However, a second variation --- Unofficial for tracking purposes only --- referred to as AFS2 MyLine experienced a loss in the 9 point top play category, but this is how new angles are found. So I will continue to accrue data and test until the results become clearer one way or the other.

Overall, I can’t help but feel excitement as the NFL season approaches. It looks like the AFS rebuild with the added strength of opponents played has been a positive addition. At this point I can only hope that the NFL model numbers look this prophetic after week eight.

YTD record thru week 8 CFL
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS lean
3-0, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
13-7, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold
….sorry looks like I had a typo along the way, this should always reflect the record below. Meaning, 13 games MyLine was within 6 points of the betting line. And 7 games were above 6 points of the betting line as in the 5-2 record below.
_
4-2, 6 point basic lean
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS2 MyLine plays --- Unofficial for tracking purposes only ---
12-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
3-2, 6 point basic lean
1-1, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays

it would be good to post the plays the day they play.

teamfball · Aug 14, 2016

ACE-ACE said:
it would be good to post the plays the day they play.

Are you suggesting that 5 days in advance is too early to post a play see post #7, or are you saying I
should post them again the day of the game?

++++++++++++++ here are this weeks projections.
The only possible AFS play this week is Ottawa but line will certainly be too high to qualify as a Top play, and the ML feature is line dependent. So below are the AFS MyLine model line projections, now it’s a waiting game to see what the books think.
Ottawa -10.5
Calgary –4
Edmonton -2
Hamilton -6

QUEENOFHEARTS · Aug 14, 2016

Nice work with the CFL G.

I hope all is well with the family and I wish you the best this NFL season.

Ottawa -10.5
Calgary –4
Edmonton -2
Hamilton -6

**noted and gonna follow along for the free ride.

ACE-ACE · Aug 15, 2016

teamfball said:
Are you suggesting that 5 days in advance is too early to post a play see post #7, or are you saying I
should post them again the day of the game?

++++++++++++++ here are this weeks projections.
The only possible AFS play this week is Ottawa but line will certainly be too high to qualify as a Top play, and the ML feature is line dependent. So below are the AFS MyLine model line projections, now it’s a waiting game to see what the books think.
Ottawa -10.5
Calgary –4
Edmonton -2
Hamilton -6

If you got the time the day of the game.

teamfball · Aug 16, 2016

Ottawa -10.5 vs. -9 ---- Although Ottawa is dominate in the eyes of the model, 9 is just too much to lay in the CFL, and the bookie line is to close to AFS MyLine

Calgary –4 vs. BC -3 ----This adds up to a 7 point difference and therefore is enough to be a AFS MyLine 6 point basic lean.

Edmonton -2 vs. -3 ---- the bookie line is to close to AFS MyLine

Hamilton -6 vs. -10 ---- A four point difference is not enough to be a AFS MyLine play, we’re looking for 6 or more, preferably 9 or 11.

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS lean
3-0, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
16-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold
4-2, 6 point basic lean ------ Calgary +3 --- pending
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS2 MyLine plays --- Unofficial for tracking purposes only ---
16-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
3-2, 6 point basic lean
1-1, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays

QUEENOFHEARTS · Aug 16, 2016

teamfball said:
Ottawa -10.5 vs. -9 ---- Although Ottawa is dominate in the eyes of the model, 9 is just too much to lay in the CFL, and the bookie line is to close to AFS MyLine

Calgary –4 vs. BC -3 ----This adds up to a 7 point difference and therefore is enough to be a AFS MyLine 6 point basic lean.

Edmonton -2 vs. -3 ---- the bookie line is to close to AFS MyLine

Hamilton -6 vs. -10 ---- A four point difference is not enough to be a AFS MyLine play, we’re looking for 6 or more, preferably 9 or 11.

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS lean
3-0, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
16-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold
4-2, 6 point basic lean ------ Calgary +3 --- pending
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS2 MyLine plays --- Unofficial for tracking purposes only ---
16-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold.
3-2, 6 point basic lean
1-1, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays

Calgary –4 vs. BC -3 ----This adds up to a 7 point difference and therefore is enough to be a AFS MyLine 6 point basic lean.

So you are calling the 7 pt diff the diff of Cal-4 vs Cal +3 ?
or Cal -4 vs BC -3 ?

I think you meant cal - 4 projected vs Cal+3 actual. Just making sure.
So now it's Cal +2' vs BC -2'.

How much weight are you putting off that hook from 3 ?
+2' is such an ugly # from a +3 !!!

Finally what I am getting at here is the key # which my line does not account for. My Line is just a starting point and I fully understand that.

So..... With that in mind, please take into consideration the following fact regarding the CFL before you answer the question on the +2'.

" A more diverse scoring system of the CFL compared to the NFL dilutes the frequency with which games are decided by exactly seven points, but there does remain a GREATER likelihood that the margin of victory will be exactly three points.Nearly 11% of games were decided by exactly three points between 2008/13 and 16 matches were decided by that margin during the 2015 regular season".

QUEENOFHEARTS · Aug 16, 2016

In my opinion, the hook off or on the 3 in CFL is simply setting one up for a much wanted or unwanted surprise. I apologize for being long winded and for joining your thread uninvited. The ultimate goal here is to make $$ and this is a pretty important topic especially considering the years of work that you have invested already.

Once again.... Good luck.

teamfball · Aug 17, 2016

QUEEN OF HEARTS said:
I think you meant cal - 4 projected vs Cal+3 actual. Just making sure.

*****Correct***** Let’s not argue over semantics;

QUEEN OF HEARTS said:
So now it's Cal +2' vs BC -2'.

No, Cal +3 was readily available at the time, so Cal +3 is the play……..end of story.

@ QOH, Obviously +3 is better than +2.5 . But if you were to use you time more wisely and do research rather than copy and paste ideas from others you might find that in roughly nine and one half years, approximately 735 CFL games landed on 3pts_22 times, 2pts _21 times, and 1pt._27 times.

Again @ QOH, giving our past history I would appreciate if you didn’t hijack this thread.

teamfball · Aug 17, 2016

Sorry new that didn't look right

In nine and one half years, approximately 735 CFL games landed on
3pts_76 times,
2pts _40 times,
1pt._38 times.
4pts._41 times.

teamfball · Aug 18, 2016

Okay it’s Thursday the Calgary play isn’t until late Friday night. As stated Tuesday Calgary +3 is a AFS MyLine basic play, not a Top or Investment play but a basic play. So why do I love this particular play so much? I’ll probably regret this, because my claim all along has been I’m not a handicapper just a numbers guy. So I’ll just list some of the interesting statistical things I’m seeing.

These are the 2 best overall teams in the league
This will be the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] meeting this year, normal for a 9 team league
- Wk 1 = Calgary -3 lost by 2 in BC – BC Cover
  - No model data available Wk 1
- Wk 6 = Calgary -5.5 won by 3 in CAL – BC Cover
  - The model chose BC +5.5 and Covered…
….fast forward to week number nine.
Wk 9 ; why is Calgary +3 suddenly a pooch in BC..?
- Yeah! BC is good I’ve watched the lions the last 3 weeks, they have been a BIG play for the model each of the last 2 weeks; 2 Covers; And a Basic play 3 weeks ago when they last played Calgary; Cover
- The young BC QB is throwing the ball allover the yard; But Calgary matches that with a very good Pass defense and an equally talented QB, Oh and a better run Off. & Def. too!
- Bottom line, the model now has Calgary as the better team.
  - BC is scoring in the same categories it did in Wk 6
  - But CAL now scores with higher scoring categories and now trumps BC
Ask again, why is Calgary +3 suddenly a pooch?

I see no significant injuries
Is this line an over reaction to BC’s win last week against a talented Hamilton squad?
Is it because Calgary is coming off a less than impressive home/away match-ups with the worst team in the league?

Can anyone explain this to me?
Oh’ when I say anyone I don’t really mean anyone @QOH

teamfball · Aug 19, 2016

Okay it’s Friday game day CFL week 9, the game is in British Columbia so a late start tonight.
As posted Tuesday Calgary +3 is a AFS MyLine basic play and will be recorded as such.
FYI
I’ve talked myself down from personally wagering like this is anything other than a basic play.

My claim all along has been I’m not a handicapper
BC is improving, with a win last week against a talented Hamilton squad?
Calgary is coming off a less than impressive home/away match-ups with the worst team in the league.

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS lean
3-0, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
16-8, Games within 6 point target MyLine threshold
4-2, 6 point basic plays ------ Calgary +3 --- pending
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays

teamfball · Aug 20, 2016

…..a Calgary blowout.
What do I say, I should have stuck to my guns.

teamfball said:
So why do I love this particular play so much? I’ll just list some of the interesting statistical things I’m seeing. I’ll Ask again, why is Calgary +3 suddenly a pooch?

Guess that’s why I’m not a handicapper…. yet. Don’t get me wrong it was a low level action play for the model but my analysis of the match-up from inside the model was spot on, and most importantly the model continues to spit out winners. All statistically based models can lead you to plays but what skills are needed to turn a basic play into a cash cow, and how does one find ways to pull back the reins and get off the investment plays when you need to most? I hope to figure this out very soon. When I look ahead to next week I see two potential TOP plays, and they both look very uncomfortable already. But after what I’ve been seeing from the model who am I to question the numbers? So stay tuned, when the lines come out we may have an opportunity to catch the best of the opening numbers.

YTD record
-----------------------
AFS plays
1-1, Basic AFS lean
3-0, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
AFS MyLine plays
5-2, 6 point basic plays
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays
-------------------------------------------