Mo's July 15th

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Hey gentlemen. Hope you all had a nice few days off. I had a chance to recharge for the 2nd half. Hope we all make money like the 1st half. I know there are no lines out yet, but I'm starting to look at Friday's card. In my attempt to cut down on my plays, I will be changing things up a bit. I will first post all of the plays I am considering, and then cut them down during they day, and when time permits, give my reasons for my plays. I welcome all criticism. And lastly, I consolidated my 1st half record to just one line. For the 2nd half, I will again break down the record into categories, but will just keep one total record instead of breaking it down monthly.

So far for July 15th, I am looking at the following plays.

Giants -1.5
I rarely play run lines, but hate big juice more. Current Padre players who have faced Bum are a combined .169 batting average vs the lefty. Padres have hit lefties extremely well this year, 6.55 rpg which is a bit concerning and may kill this play. On the other hand, current Giant players who have face Cashner are a combined .320 vs the righty. There's a huge difference in era's between these 2 pitchers, especially the past 3 games.

Giants TT over
I'm hoping to get at worst 4.5 for this number, but may play it up to 5. As stated above, Giant hitters are rocking Cashner. On top of that, his season era at 5.40 and last 3 at 9.00 raises my eyebrows.

Cubs to win
Both the Cubs and Rangers limped into the all star break. Once the Rangers' pitching staff gets healthy, they are going to be a force to be reckoned with again. But they aren't there right now. Hendricks has been rock solid, especially at home. 5-1 1.67. Meanwhile, Perez is not impressive, especially on the road. 1-4 5.23. I just hope the juice is less than -170 on this one.

Cubs TT over
May play this one up to 5. I'm trying to stay away from 5.5 or more on TTs. Cubs are averaging 5.69 rpg vs lefties, and they're facing a struggling road lefty. One thing that concerns me is that the Cubs are only hitting .242 at Wrigley this year. I'd rather play the Cubs to win, but we'll see.

Red to win
What? Well, DeSclafani is a stud on the mound so far. 3-0 with a 2.23 era and 1.29 whip. Brewers hit .244 vs righties with 3.92 rpg. Meanwhile, Garza is sporting a 5.54 era, 8.44 last 3 games. On the road he is 0-2 5.40 era. Jay Bruce is hitting .375 with 3 home runs in 32 at bats vs Garza, and Votto at .286 in 28 at bats. Phillips .345 in 29 at bats. And Suarez .800 in 5 at bats. He can't pitch around all these guys. I'm hoping to get a better number than -150.

Reds TT over
For reasons stated above, the Reds have hit Garza pretty darn well. Plus the extra motivation to give good run support for a pitcher who keeps them in games. I may be willing to go up to 5, but would rather see 4.5 or better.

That's all I have for now. Still waiting on starting pitchers to be announced.


2016 1st Half: 268-220 +40.44 units
 
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One more note on the Reds TT. I'd rather play this than Reds to win because we all know about that horrible bullpen. On top of that, past 10 meeting between these 2 clubs, Reds scored 4 runs twice, and 5 or more the other 8 games, never scoring below 4. If it wasn't for DeSclafani pitching, I would also be looking at the over in this game.
 

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KING MO IN THE HOUSE !!!

I asked my
th
for some Friday lines and he said and I quote " GO F YOURSELF B*TCH"

So you now know why I like to take it to the house on my guy...

hahahha
 

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HEARD THAT !!!

Getting antsy too !!!!

WE WILL WIN THAT DANG MONEY MY BROTHER !!!!

Have a good night !
 

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SF/SD total will be around 7.5 which means SF TT will prob be 4. No way we see a 5.

Tex/Chi total will be 9 9.5. Cubs TT prob come out at 4.5 5max. No way 5.5

Mil/Cin total will be 9 9.5. Cin 4.5 max on TT

Just my 2 cents. Good Luck!
 
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SF/SD total out. over 7 -120 It's very tempting, but I just don't know if I should put more trust in Padres great hitting vs lefties, or Bum being great and his success vs current Padre hitters. I'm thinking Giants score at least 5, leaving 2 more for the Padres to get. But a shutout is definitely not out of the question. We'll just wait and see.

Reds -125 This number is definitely lower than I projected. At this point, I may feel more comfortable with a Reds TT over play. But this one looks like a possible play.

Cubs -200 Yikes. We'll be waiting on the TT number in this game.
 

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Cubs have lost L8 of 10. Rangers have lost L7 of 10. Cubs will have better pitcher on mound. Cubs RL makes sense on paper, but those fools will fuck up a wet dream lately. Especially when favored -200. Hendricks W-L record is 7-6 so it's not like he wins every game. Perez 7-5 so he has just as much wins. I think the safer play will be the Over 9 or 9.5 whatever it comes out at. Rangers can score some runs and Cubbies should be able to get 5 off Perez before the bullpen. I see a 7- 6 game somebody. Once lines come out things will be more clear as to what is most likely to happen. Looking at TT's and prices on TT's helps a lot to "read between the lines" so to speak.
 

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I hope you don't mind me discussing in your thread MoMoney. If you do then I will stay out.
 
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Absolutely not Bourn. This is what I want out of a forum. Like I said earlier, criticism is welcome. I've got thick skin so you can come in here and tell me why you don't like something. No crying to mods here.

I'm definitely off Cubs to win at this price. Looking like the best play is the TT over. Not quite sure about the game total over. Rangers can score runs also, like you said, but I'm high on Hendricks right now, and would be afraid of him shutting them down.

Pitching change for the A's. Mengden is going, not Hill. Will be looking at a Blue Jays play possibly.
 
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Some more possible plays:

Red Sox/Yanks over 9.5 or one of the TTs over
Blue Jays ml
Reds 1st 5 ml
Indians ml
Indians TT over
Nats TT over

Looks like 12 possible plays. Should be able to narrow it down to 2-5. Just gotta wait now.
 

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Like ur thinking on several of those plays. I have my eyes on a couple especially Cleveland
 
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Thanks Factsman. Whittled down to 7 possible plays.

Giants TT over
Cubs TT over
Reds 1st 5
Reds TT over
Blue Jays ml (no line yet)
Indians -155
Nats TT over

Cut:
Giants -1.5 : 2 of last 3 with Bum against Pads were decided by 1 run. I think the TT is the stronger play.
Reds ml : I can't put any trust in that bullpen. Would rather isolate the starters.
Sox/Yanks over 9.5 : Big number and the Yanks seem to disappoint me when I need them to score runs.
Cubs ml : Too much juice. They should win, but they should also score some runs. Take less juice on the TT.
Indians TT : Carrasco is nasty. He can win with a less than stellar offensive performance.
 
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Still waiting on the Jays line to come out. I've locked one game in this morning.

Indians -155 4.65/3

Giants TT over
Cubs TT over
Reds 1st 5
Reds TT over
Blue Jays ml (no line yet)
Nats TT over

Just waiting on these other lines to come out later today. Glad to see PW on the Tribe as well. Didn't like any totals, but will look at them again.
 
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Indians -155 4.65/3
Blue Jays -130 2.6/2
Red Sox EV 2/2

This one wasn't on my radar until the pitching change. Active Yanks vs Wright hitting .138. Active Sox .258 vs Pineda. At work, so I don't have access to all my numbers. Some websites are blocked.
 
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Indians -155 4.65/3
Blue Jays -130 2.6/2
Red Sox EV 2/2
Cubs TT over 4 -160 2.56/1.6

More juice than I would like, but we got a low number.
 

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