We've got some great out of conference match-ups going in week 1 including Clemson traveling to Jordan-Hare to take on Auburn. Line currently sits at Clemson -7.5 and I must say Auburn getting more than a TD at home is awfully tempting as Auburn is 29-0 SU at home in non-conference games since 2007. Granted, most of those games were probably against Hostess Cupcakes but still there has to be an added confidence playing in front of a well lubricated night time home crowd. Anyone want to talk me down?
He busted a damn good Alabama defense up for 478 total yards (405 passing, 73 rush) and 40
points. Thank goodness their defense couldn't cover our tight end.
Got a lot of Auburn friends who are thinking upset. I've looked at this game and I just can't see it.
Clemson has to replace some good defensive players but I don't believe Auburn can match points
with Clemson's offense if it came to a shootout.
I really like Clemson in this match-up. I just don't believe AU can score enough points to cover.
With that said, this will be the most talented D AU has put on the field since the Tub years. Their front should be really good. They will be starting two new kids at LB - one a transfer from Illinois and one with experience from last year. Both should be an improvement. They have some talent and experience in the back field, but I question how well they match up against the Clemson spread.
Auburn's O is where their problem lies. Clemson is replacing a lot on D but it shouldn't matter. Malzahn wants to start Franklin at QB and get back to a read zone style O. Franklin is extremely fast but doesn't possess QB skills. He hasn't grasped the offense, is not a good passer and subject to turn-overs. If he fails to win the job it will most assuredly go to White. White is a gritty kid, has a decent arm and more athletic than given credit. But he is no threat in the zone read. If last year is an indication, they aren't going to light the scoreboard up with White at QB.
I'm interested in the total for this game. Public opinion based on last year's Championship game and both teams reputation for fast pace, high scoring O's will probably drive it up. Auburn will try to establish their running game and I wouldn't be surprised if they have some success doing that. I think Auburn's D will feed off the crowd and play better than expected. I just don't think they can score enough to cover or go over the total.
With that said, this will be the most talented D AU has put on the field since the Tub years. Their front should be really good. They will be starting two new kids at LB - one a transfer from Illinois and one with experience from last year. Both should be an improvement. They have some talent and experience in the back field, but I question how well they match up against the Clemson spread.
Auburn's O is where their problem lies. Clemson is replacing a lot on D but it shouldn't matter. Malzahn wants to start Franklin at QB and get back to a read zone style O. Franklin is extremely fast but doesn't possess QB skills. He hasn't grasped the offense, is not a good passer and subject to turn-overs. If he fails to win the job it will most assuredly go to White. White is a gritty kid, has a decent arm and more athletic than given credit. But he is no threat in the zone read. If last year is an indication, they aren't going to light the scoreboard up with White at QB.
I'm interested in the total for this game. Public opinion based on last year's Championship game and both teams reputation for fast pace, high scoring O's will probably drive it up. Auburn will try to establish their running game and I wouldn't be surprised if they have some success doing that. I think Auburn's D will feed off the crowd and play better than expected. I just don't think they can score enough to cover or go over the total.
Personally, I wouldn't touch this bet. I have closely followed Clemson football for a long time. This is not the same football team you guys are used to seeing the last 20 years that has a couple of flashy toys but no substance. In my humble opinion, this is one of the most talented offenses in college football for the last decade. They return 10 starters on offense. Think about this. That team that out gained Bama in the national championship did it without it's top 2 WRs (Mike Williams and Deon Cain) both of whom are back. They return the single season rushing leader in Clemson history at RB (Gallman). They have a senior NFL talent TE. And 4/5 returning starters off Oline back. Oh yeah, and a guy named Watson running the show.
They did lose 7 guys off defense for the second year in a row. However the DT rotation is as strong as anyone in the country and they return the vocal leader Boulware at LB. Thet have excellent talent at safety and CB and for the third year in a row will not be afraid to man up on the outside and bring safeties up in run support.
Having said all of this, I still wouldn't spot 7.5 points for an opening game on the road against an auburn team who also has a lot of talent. But if you are going to bet against a Clemson team that is bigger, faster, stronger and has the best QB in the country and has been a model of consistency for 2 years, don't say I didn't warn you.
Auburn isn't going to be able to stop the run, and that's going to be a major problem when Clemson can pick its spots to go deep with the best QB in the country. Where will the safeties be? Auburn only had 13 sacks all of last year, and Watson is going to have time to throw. I fully expect Clemson to have 31+ at the half.
I like Clemson to cover but stopping the run and pressuring the QB should actually be an AU strength this season. I would throw last years stats out the window when evaluating this team. After the Lawson injury in the first half of the first game, AU didn't have a D-end last year. This year they have a healthy Lawson back and on the other end they have multiple solid options - Cowart (number 1 high school player in the country 2 years ago), Marlon Davidson (5 star recruit who had an outstanding spring) and James (outstanding pass rusher from the JUCO ranks). Cowart came out of the spring running 3rd team. That should tell you the quality depth they have at the position.
Their D-Line will be solid and deep. That is something that couldn't be said about an AU D-line in years. There aren't many tackles better than Adams. Swain, Russell and Lawrence are all good options and backups at the other tackle position. They also signed what many consider the best freshmen D-Line signing class in the country. Any number of those kids could provide help this season.
Major upgrades at the LB position should also help.
Clemson may have 31 at the half but I don't believe it is a given. Watson is a great QB and their offense is loaded with talent. But people seem to only remember the Championship game where they put 40 on bama. They don't remember the FSU game where they only scored 23. The ND game where they scored 24 or the Louisville game where they scored 20 (the same Louisville team that gave up 31 to AU).
I completely agree with you on Auburns improved defense and think it is a stretch to forecast Clemson scoring 31 in a half.
There was several reasons why Clemsons offense was not as electric in those aforementioned games:
-Mike Williams is a truly elite pass catcher in the same mold as Nuke Hopkins. His injury in the first game last year really set the offense back. He is back completely healthy this year and has looked incredible in practice.
- The offensive line had ZERO returning starters last year and they really grew as the season went on. They return 4/5 this year.
- Notre Dame was played in a hurricane
I don't think most people realize how huge the return of Williams is going to be. He will truly command a double coverage almost every play.
Also not mentioned is Auburns new defensive coordinator was fired from Clemson for his inability to stop dual threat QBs and he's facing one of the most talented dual threat QBs you will ever see.
Clemson absolutely has the talent to boat race Auburn.
Anyone that thinks this team is going to be intimidated or overwhelmed playing a night game on the road needs to go back and take a look at Watson's demeanor in the playoff games.
Other than your 'boat race' comment, I concur. Clemson's offense is potent - no one disagrees with that
While everyone is concentrating on Clemson's O vs AU's D, the key to this game will be how well AU moves the ball. Last year this was a huge problem and may very well be again. If they can't move the ball and get in the end zone this game will be over before it gets started.
But there is hope. AU will not have a dynamic O this year, but they may not need one to have success against a very average Clemson D. Numbers don't lie, last year Clemson gave up 32 points (So Car), 41 (NC St), 37 (NC), 27 (Syracuse), 24 (Ga Tech) and 45 (bama). To make matters worse for Clemson, they lost both starting safeties, best corner (Alexander), leading tackler and top LB (Goodson), and two outstanding D-ends (Dodd and Lawson). The Dodd and Lawson loss is huge. Both those guys had 12 sacks and lead the country in tackles for a loss.
I know they have recruited well and will replace those guys with solid replacements. But, even with solid replacements and the return of Tankersley, Boulware, Wilkins and Watkins there is no reason to expect a better D than they fielded last year. That could keep this game closer than many expect.
With that said, I still expect Clemson to cover.
