How To Bet Sunday Night's Yankees-Red Sox MLB Game

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[h=1]How to bet Sunday night's Red Sox-Yankees game[/h]MLB Vegas ExpertsESPN Chalk
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For the first time in 10 weeks, we have an American League game on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball as the Boston Red Sox visit the New York Yankees (8:05 p.m. ET).
The Red Sox are going for a series sweep after winning 5-3 on Friday and 5-2 on Saturday. Boston is in the thick of the AL playoff hunt as it trails Baltimore by just two games in the AL East entering Sunday's action, and would be the top AL wild card if the proverbial playoffs were to start today. The Yankees are 9.5 games behind the Orioles and 5.5 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the AL's second wild-card spot (with five other teams to overcome).
ESPN Chalk's team of MLB handicappers, which is back after a two-week hiatus, will try to continue its winning ways following three straight games without a loss. In our last Sunday Night Baseball betting article, Joe Peta had the Pittsburgh Pirates +245 against Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers and is 8-3 on Sunday nights for a net profit of 6.93 units (risking the price on the favorite to win 1 unit or laying 1 unit on the underdog). Meanwhile, Dave Tuley is 5-2 for a net profit of 2.7 units on over/unders, and Erin Rynning is 2-0 for a profit of 2 units.
Here's the Chalk team's take on how to bet Red Sox-Yankees.
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Westgate line: Boston Red Sox (David Price) -120 at New York Yankees (Masahiro Tanaka) +110
Over/under: 7.5 (over -110, under -110)
PickCenter Intel

Joe Peta: The bulk of the work for this pick occurred last week when compiling ESPN Chalk's team-by-team midseason betting reports. In the Yankees' installment, I concluded that, based on how oddsmakers were pricing the Yankees on a daily basis compared with the team's true talent level, "Your default setting when evaluating a Yankees game during the second half of the season should be 'sell.'"
Nothing about how the Yankees have played since the All-Star break ended or, more importantly, how they've been priced (with a win expectancy of 58.7 percent and 55.6 percent the last two nights, respectively) changes that default setting for tonight. Of course, there's some nuance involved in comparing starting pitchers the past two games, but in the case of these two teams, Boston's offense is so much better than the Yankees' offense -- outscoring New York by more than one run a game and being nearly a run-and-one-half better per game -- that there is almost no pitching matchup that would justify the Yankees being a favorite at those prices.
Tonight's pitching matchup features both aces, and because they play in the same division -- and therefore face a similar slate of batters over the course of a season -- comparing their body of work this season has some meaning. David Price's strikeout rate (27.1 percent versus 19.5 percent for Masahiro Tanaka) is so much higher than Tanaka's mildly better walk rate (4.6 percent versus 5.2 percent for Price) that any predictive reading projects Price as the much better pitcher. (SIERA, for one, has it 3.27 to 3.85 in Price's favor.) On top of that, as pointed out in the midseason previews, the Yankees have the worst defense in the American League, which further increases the projected runs allowed spread in Price's favor.
No matter how liberally I tweak the offensive projections for lineup changes and platoon advantages, there's just no way I could come up with a win expectancy for these two teams anywhere close to 50 percent, which is in the neighborhood of where this line opened (Red Sox -108/Yankees -102). I try to convey a sense of conviction with each of these Sunday night write-ups, and this one, at -110 or lower, grades out to be the strongest play of the 2016 slate of games yet. Given that belief (and expecting the line to get bet higher), even at -120 or -125, the Red Sox are still a very strong play.
ESPN Chalk pick: Boston Red Sox -120.

Erin Rynning: The Red Sox signed Price for more than $200 million in the offseason for games like Sunday night: to take down the Yankees. The lefty failed to meet expectations in his first seven starts for his new team, allowing 31 runs in just over 41 innings of work. It's important to note Price especially toiled with diminished velocity over the early portion of the season.
Crucially, the new Red Sox starter made a few adjustments with his mechanics that lead to more power and velocity. The results have followed, with Price ripping off 10 quality outings in his last 12 starts.
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</article>Meanwhile, Tanaka is generally the de facto Yankees ace. He continues to pitch with declining stuff although his wide array of offerings keeps the opposition off-balance. To his credit, Tanaka has put up a sturdy 3.23 ERA, but it should be noted that he has pitched against easier opposition than Price. Look for Price to step up under the Sunday night lights against the Yankees' overmatched lineup.
ESPN Chalk pick: Boston Red Sox -120.

Dave Tuley: The first two games have stayed under the betting totals (the under is 5-2-1 in the season series after going 7-5 last year), and with each team's ace taking the mound, there's no reason to expect anything different on Sunday. I was expecting this over/under to open at 7.5 with Price's ERA at 4.34 and Tanaka's at 3.23, especially with Price's recent form making the expectation that the score should be even lower; as a result, I was really excited when it opened at 8 and that number was widely available.
I wish we had posted this betting guide Saturday, as the under-8 was a stronger play with the added insurance in case of a push if exactly 8 runs are scored, but I still recommend it at under 7.5, as it's still more likely to happen with the Yankees' bats struggling coming out of the All-Star break. The plate umpire isCarlos Torres, who is 12-12 with over/unders since making the big leagues last year, so the fact that he's 10-8 to the over this year isn't scaring me away.
ESPN Chalk pick: Under 7.5.
 

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