The 13 biggest CFB surprise teams for 2016
Phil SteeleESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Editor's note: This article was adapted from Phil Steele's college football preview magazine, which is available here.
Almost any College Football Playoff projection for 2016 starts with last year's finalists, Alabama and Clemson.
But what are the teams that could stun the college football universe and make a playoff run?
Here are my 13 biggest potential surprise teams for 2016 -- plus a bonus long-shot pick.
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1. Washington Huskies
Florida State was my No. 1 surprise team in 2013 and the Seminoles won the national title. Washington is coming off a 7-6 season. The Huskies were very young last year (nine returning starters, No. 107 on my experience ratings chart). They had a true freshman QB and a tough schedule. They got a key road win over a ranked USC and later won the Apple Cup to get to six wins. This year they are much more experienced with 15 returning starters. They lose only six lettermen off a defense that allowed 18.8 points per game in 2015. Wide receiver John Ross is their most explosive playmaker and he returns after missing 2015 with an injury. They have a 1,000-yard rusher in Myles Gaskin, a QB with experience and a veteran offensive line. They are a complete team with my No. 19-rated special-teams unit. Husky Stadium is one of the loudest venues in the country and they have seven home games this year, including Stanford and USC. Coaches usually hit their stride in Year 3 with three recruiting classes, their systems and philosophies firmly implemented. Chris Petersen is an excellent on-field coach with an overall record of 107-24, and the Huskies' schedule drops from my fifth-toughest slate in 2015 to No. 56 this year. They are my pick to win the rugged Pac-12 North and that gives them a great shot at getting into the 2016 playoff.
[h=2]2. TCU Horned Frogs[/h][h=2][/h]
Last year, the Horned Frogs at one point were 8-0 and No. 5 in the country. They had a 36-16 first-down edge at Oklahoma State but lost by 20 due to being minus-4 in turnover differential. Two games later, with star QB Trevone Boykin and All-American WR Josh Doctson both out, they missed a two-point conversion with 51 seconds left going for the win in a one-point loss to CF-bound Oklahoma on the road. They finished No. 7, but with just 10 returning starters they will not likely even be in the top 15 to start the season. They have more experience on offense than their three returning starters would indicate. Remember that prior to the 2014 season, Boykin was thought to be better at WR than QB, so newcomer Kenny Hill could thrive in this offense in 2016. Gary Patterson knows defense, and the Frogs bring back 77.3 percent of their tacklers for 2016. Of their five road games this year, they face only two teams that had winning records last year, and Baylor is going through a late coaching change. They get Oklahoma at home in October and a win there would put them in the driver's seat for the Big 12 title and a playoff berth.
[h=2]3. Iowa Hawkeyes[/h]
The Hawkeyes came within one play of making the CFP last year despite coming off a 7-6 season in 2014. Michigan State got a TD with 27 seconds left to edge out a 12-0 Iowa team in the Big Ten title game. Yes, Iowa was not an overly impressive team at times last year but did go 12-0 in the regular season and led Michigan State for most of that game. The Hawkeyes are actually a more experienced team this year, going from No. 98 in my experience rankings to No. 74 in 2016. A lot of folks say they got to 12-0 because of a favorable schedule and that is true, but this year's team could be even better. The Hawkeyes have five road games and only one is against a team that had a winning record last year (Penn State, at 7-6). They will have only one team on their schedule that will make the preseason top 25 (Michigan), which they get at home. Last year the Hawkeyes lost their top defensive lineman, Drew Ott, early in the year, so they are more experienced in the front seven and have Jim Thorpe winner Desmond King patrolling the secondary, with eight starters back on defense. QB C.J. Beathard will work behind a veteran O-line. I do not think the Hawkeyes are one of the top five teams in the country talentwise, but they could end up being favored in all 12 games, and an undefeated Big Ten champion would make the playoff.
[h=2]4. Baylor Bears[/h][h=2][/h]
Baylor had been in my projected preseason top 11, but I don't think voters will put them in the top 10 after they lost coach Art Briles after the spring. This team does have some question marks on both the offensive and defensive lines but I do like the replacements there. They have my No. 5-rated QBs, No. 7 running backs, No. 16 receivers, and both their linebackers and defensive backs rank in my top units. Baylor has its usual soft nonconference schedule. The Bears do face Oklahoma on the road but won there 48-14 just two years ago. Bottom line is, this team has top-10 talent and the Bears have the schedule to do some damage as well. They also get my No. 2 surprise team, TCU, at home. Everyone has quickly dismissed their chances this year but veteran head coach Jim Grobe has a lot of good talent to work with.
[h=2]5. UCLA Bruins[/h]
Of all the Power 5 head coaches hired since 2005, only four of them have won nine-plus games overall and at least six conference games in each of their first three years. Three of those are Jimbo Fisher, Urban Meyer (Fisher and Meyer won national titles in their fourth years) and Mark Helfrich, whose team played in the title game in 2014 and finished No. 2. The fourth of that group is the head coach of my No. 5 surprise team, UCLA. Jim Mora came up one win shy of those totals in his fourth year but UCLA was playing for the Pac 12 South title in the final game. This year the Bruins have only four returning starters on offense but one of them is QB Josh Rosen and I rate all his supporting units in my top 28 at their positions. The defense was ravaged by injuries last year, losing its best LB (Myles Jack), top defensive lineman (Eddie Vanderdoes) and top two cornerbacks all within the first month of the season, a reason the Bruins came up short of expectations. They get back Vanderdoes and go from basically four returning starters (after the losses) to nine returning starters this year. Last year, the Bruins had to face four teams that were ranked during the year on the road. This year they may face just one. They get USC, Utah and Stanford at home, and avoid Oregon and Washington out of the North. Now, Jim's dad may say "Playoffs? Playoffs?" But I think the younger Mora is under a much different circumstance than when that question was asked. UCLA is my pick to get to the Pac-12 title game and that gives the Bruins a great shot at making the CFP.
[h=2]6. Miami Hurricanes[/h]
Last year I had the Hurricanes on my most improved list, but also had coach Al Golden near the top of my "Coaches on the Hot Seat List" on my website. They did not play up to their talent level. They did stand toe-to-toe with Florida State on the road, but after a 58-0 loss to Clemson (QB Brad Kaaya was lost to injury in the first half). Three turnovers deep in Washington State territory cost them a bowl win and a 9-3 year. Mark Richt will get the most out of the talent on hand. Kaaya will be one of the top QBs taken in next year's draft. Miami has my No. 13 running back group, No. 21 receivers, No. 16 offensive line, No. 20 defensive line, No. 36 linebackers, No. 30 defensive backs and No. 15 special-teams unit. The Hurricanes are one of only 11 teams to rank in my top units in all eight position categories. They face only three teams that will be in the preseason top 25, and if they win the Coastal, beat the powerful Atlantic champ and have either zero or one losses, they will be headed to the playoffs.
[h=2]7. Georgia Bulldogs[/h]
Mark Richt's new team is my No. 6 surprise team, but his old one comes in just one spot behind. Richt left behind a lot of talent and the Bulldogs have a head coach who has quite a few national titles as Alabama's defensive coordinator. Georgia ranks in my top units in five of the eight categories. Running back Nick Chubb was lost for the season at the start of the Tennessee game last year and his return, teamed with Sony Michel, running behind my No. 7-rated O-line will give the Bulldogs a strong run game. New head coach Kirby Smart has six starters back from a defense that allowed just 16.9 points per game. The Bulldogs have only four true road games this year, and three are against teams that had losing records last year. They get SEC East favorite Tennessee at home (Georgia has won its past four against the Vols in Athens). The Dawgs do draw Ole Miss on the road, but that might be the only game in which they are an underdog this year. In the past three years, Georgia has been favored in 36 of its 39 games but has a disappointing record of 28-11 in that span. Sometimes a coaching change (Richt was there 15 years) can bring a different attitude and maybe take care of business in that favorites role.
[h=2]8. Houston Cougars[/h][h=2][/h]
[h=2][/h]Last year my No. 8 surprise team, Houston, was a surprise top-10 team at the end of the year. The Cougars caught Louisville in a sandwich situation last year and pulled a home upset, and their only loss -- to UConn -- under Tom Herman came under some extenuating circumstances. They were off down-to-the-wire wins over Cincinnati and a ranked Memphis team at home, had the AAC West title game versus Navy on deck and were without starting QB Greg Ward, while taking on a team playing in its home finale, playing its most important game of the month and trying to be bowl eligible, while Houston was making a rare trip to the East Coast in November. The Cougars upset Florida State in the Peach Bowl to finish 13-1 and No. 8. The Cougars have a Heisman-contending QB in Ward and while just 11 starters return, they are a stronger team in Herman's second year. If they can knock off Oklahoma (in Houston) in the opener, they would be favored in the rest of their games, and, if Oklahoma wins the Big 12, they can lay claim to the Big 12's spot in the four-team playoff.
[h=2]9. Michigan State Spartans[/h]
My No. 9 surprise team last year was Clemson, and the Tigers made it to the national title game. This year my No. 9 surprise team, Michigan State, also made it to the 2015 CFP but did not fare as well. The Spartans play best with a chip on their shoulder. Last year they came in as the preseason No. 5 team and played differently than in years past. Well, the chip is back! They will not be in the top 10 and all the talk is "Michigan or Ohio State" to win the East. Well, this just in, Michigan State beat both of those teams on the road last year (with a combined 37-15 edge in first downs) and gets them both at home this year! The Spartans also avoid Iowa and Nebraska out of the West. They are one of the least experienced teams in the country according to my ratings, with just 10 returning starters. But Mark Dantonio will have them coached up and they are back in their preferred spot of being overlooked.
[h=2]10. Ole Miss Rebels[/h]
The Rebels lose a lot of talent to the NFL and have an NCAA investigation over their heads. But they have plenty of talent, led by QB Chad Kelly, and just destroyed Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl to finish in the top 10 for the first time since 1969. They had the most impressive regular-season win of any team in the country, when they beat eventual national champ Alabama on the road. They have risen to No. 3 in the polls each of the past two years and hope to break through in 2016. Alabama and LSU are both top-five teams this year, but Ole Miss beat both of them last year and gets the Tide at home in 2016. While the Rebels have just 10 returning starters, they figure to come in No. 11 in the AP poll. They got their first Sugar Bowl win since the days of Archie Manning -- now, can they win their first SEC title since 1962?
[h=2]11. Louisville Cardinals[/h]
The Cardinals play in the same division with two top-six teams, but if QB Lamar Jackson plays like he did in the Music City Bowl, they will be very potent on offense. They also have my No. 2-rated linebackers and No. 23-rated defensive backs. They missed a late field goal versus Clemson last year and lost by three points. They go from No. 117 in the country on my experience chart last year (nine returning starters) to No. 14 on that chart this year (17 returning starters). Head coach Bobby Petrino is in his third year back. They do have to win at Clemson, Marshall and Houston. But usually, for any team to win a title, you have to beat someone good.
[h=2]12. North Carolina Tar Heels[/h]Florida State was my No. 1 surprise team in 2013 and the Seminoles won the national title. Washington is coming off a 7-6 season. The Huskies were very young last year (nine returning starters, No. 107 on my experience ratings chart). They had a true freshman QB and a tough schedule. They got a key road win over a ranked USC and later won the Apple Cup to get to six wins. This year they are much more experienced with 15 returning starters. They lose only six lettermen off a defense that allowed 18.8 points per game in 2015. Wide receiver John Ross is their most explosive playmaker and he returns after missing 2015 with an injury. They have a 1,000-yard rusher in Myles Gaskin, a QB with experience and a veteran offensive line. They are a complete team with my No. 19-rated special-teams unit. Husky Stadium is one of the loudest venues in the country and they have seven home games this year, including Stanford and USC. Coaches usually hit their stride in Year 3 with three recruiting classes, their systems and philosophies firmly implemented. Chris Petersen is an excellent on-field coach with an overall record of 107-24, and the Huskies' schedule drops from my fifth-toughest slate in 2015 to No. 56 this year. They are my pick to win the rugged Pac-12 North and that gives them a great shot at getting into the 2016 playoff.
[h=2]2. TCU Horned Frogs[/h][h=2][/h]
Last year, the Horned Frogs at one point were 8-0 and No. 5 in the country. They had a 36-16 first-down edge at Oklahoma State but lost by 20 due to being minus-4 in turnover differential. Two games later, with star QB Trevone Boykin and All-American WR Josh Doctson both out, they missed a two-point conversion with 51 seconds left going for the win in a one-point loss to CF-bound Oklahoma on the road. They finished No. 7, but with just 10 returning starters they will not likely even be in the top 15 to start the season. They have more experience on offense than their three returning starters would indicate. Remember that prior to the 2014 season, Boykin was thought to be better at WR than QB, so newcomer Kenny Hill could thrive in this offense in 2016. Gary Patterson knows defense, and the Frogs bring back 77.3 percent of their tacklers for 2016. Of their five road games this year, they face only two teams that had winning records last year, and Baylor is going through a late coaching change. They get Oklahoma at home in October and a win there would put them in the driver's seat for the Big 12 title and a playoff berth.
[h=2]3. Iowa Hawkeyes[/h]
The Hawkeyes came within one play of making the CFP last year despite coming off a 7-6 season in 2014. Michigan State got a TD with 27 seconds left to edge out a 12-0 Iowa team in the Big Ten title game. Yes, Iowa was not an overly impressive team at times last year but did go 12-0 in the regular season and led Michigan State for most of that game. The Hawkeyes are actually a more experienced team this year, going from No. 98 in my experience rankings to No. 74 in 2016. A lot of folks say they got to 12-0 because of a favorable schedule and that is true, but this year's team could be even better. The Hawkeyes have five road games and only one is against a team that had a winning record last year (Penn State, at 7-6). They will have only one team on their schedule that will make the preseason top 25 (Michigan), which they get at home. Last year the Hawkeyes lost their top defensive lineman, Drew Ott, early in the year, so they are more experienced in the front seven and have Jim Thorpe winner Desmond King patrolling the secondary, with eight starters back on defense. QB C.J. Beathard will work behind a veteran O-line. I do not think the Hawkeyes are one of the top five teams in the country talentwise, but they could end up being favored in all 12 games, and an undefeated Big Ten champion would make the playoff.
[h=2]4. Baylor Bears[/h][h=2][/h]
Baylor had been in my projected preseason top 11, but I don't think voters will put them in the top 10 after they lost coach Art Briles after the spring. This team does have some question marks on both the offensive and defensive lines but I do like the replacements there. They have my No. 5-rated QBs, No. 7 running backs, No. 16 receivers, and both their linebackers and defensive backs rank in my top units. Baylor has its usual soft nonconference schedule. The Bears do face Oklahoma on the road but won there 48-14 just two years ago. Bottom line is, this team has top-10 talent and the Bears have the schedule to do some damage as well. They also get my No. 2 surprise team, TCU, at home. Everyone has quickly dismissed their chances this year but veteran head coach Jim Grobe has a lot of good talent to work with.
[h=2]5. UCLA Bruins[/h]
Of all the Power 5 head coaches hired since 2005, only four of them have won nine-plus games overall and at least six conference games in each of their first three years. Three of those are Jimbo Fisher, Urban Meyer (Fisher and Meyer won national titles in their fourth years) and Mark Helfrich, whose team played in the title game in 2014 and finished No. 2. The fourth of that group is the head coach of my No. 5 surprise team, UCLA. Jim Mora came up one win shy of those totals in his fourth year but UCLA was playing for the Pac 12 South title in the final game. This year the Bruins have only four returning starters on offense but one of them is QB Josh Rosen and I rate all his supporting units in my top 28 at their positions. The defense was ravaged by injuries last year, losing its best LB (Myles Jack), top defensive lineman (Eddie Vanderdoes) and top two cornerbacks all within the first month of the season, a reason the Bruins came up short of expectations. They get back Vanderdoes and go from basically four returning starters (after the losses) to nine returning starters this year. Last year, the Bruins had to face four teams that were ranked during the year on the road. This year they may face just one. They get USC, Utah and Stanford at home, and avoid Oregon and Washington out of the North. Now, Jim's dad may say "Playoffs? Playoffs?" But I think the younger Mora is under a much different circumstance than when that question was asked. UCLA is my pick to get to the Pac-12 title game and that gives the Bruins a great shot at making the CFP.
[h=2]6. Miami Hurricanes[/h]
Last year I had the Hurricanes on my most improved list, but also had coach Al Golden near the top of my "Coaches on the Hot Seat List" on my website. They did not play up to their talent level. They did stand toe-to-toe with Florida State on the road, but after a 58-0 loss to Clemson (QB Brad Kaaya was lost to injury in the first half). Three turnovers deep in Washington State territory cost them a bowl win and a 9-3 year. Mark Richt will get the most out of the talent on hand. Kaaya will be one of the top QBs taken in next year's draft. Miami has my No. 13 running back group, No. 21 receivers, No. 16 offensive line, No. 20 defensive line, No. 36 linebackers, No. 30 defensive backs and No. 15 special-teams unit. The Hurricanes are one of only 11 teams to rank in my top units in all eight position categories. They face only three teams that will be in the preseason top 25, and if they win the Coastal, beat the powerful Atlantic champ and have either zero or one losses, they will be headed to the playoffs.
[h=2]7. Georgia Bulldogs[/h]
Mark Richt's new team is my No. 6 surprise team, but his old one comes in just one spot behind. Richt left behind a lot of talent and the Bulldogs have a head coach who has quite a few national titles as Alabama's defensive coordinator. Georgia ranks in my top units in five of the eight categories. Running back Nick Chubb was lost for the season at the start of the Tennessee game last year and his return, teamed with Sony Michel, running behind my No. 7-rated O-line will give the Bulldogs a strong run game. New head coach Kirby Smart has six starters back from a defense that allowed just 16.9 points per game. The Bulldogs have only four true road games this year, and three are against teams that had losing records last year. They get SEC East favorite Tennessee at home (Georgia has won its past four against the Vols in Athens). The Dawgs do draw Ole Miss on the road, but that might be the only game in which they are an underdog this year. In the past three years, Georgia has been favored in 36 of its 39 games but has a disappointing record of 28-11 in that span. Sometimes a coaching change (Richt was there 15 years) can bring a different attitude and maybe take care of business in that favorites role.
[h=2]8. Houston Cougars[/h][h=2][/h]
[h=2][/h]Last year my No. 8 surprise team, Houston, was a surprise top-10 team at the end of the year. The Cougars caught Louisville in a sandwich situation last year and pulled a home upset, and their only loss -- to UConn -- under Tom Herman came under some extenuating circumstances. They were off down-to-the-wire wins over Cincinnati and a ranked Memphis team at home, had the AAC West title game versus Navy on deck and were without starting QB Greg Ward, while taking on a team playing in its home finale, playing its most important game of the month and trying to be bowl eligible, while Houston was making a rare trip to the East Coast in November. The Cougars upset Florida State in the Peach Bowl to finish 13-1 and No. 8. The Cougars have a Heisman-contending QB in Ward and while just 11 starters return, they are a stronger team in Herman's second year. If they can knock off Oklahoma (in Houston) in the opener, they would be favored in the rest of their games, and, if Oklahoma wins the Big 12, they can lay claim to the Big 12's spot in the four-team playoff.
[h=2]9. Michigan State Spartans[/h]
My No. 9 surprise team last year was Clemson, and the Tigers made it to the national title game. This year my No. 9 surprise team, Michigan State, also made it to the 2015 CFP but did not fare as well. The Spartans play best with a chip on their shoulder. Last year they came in as the preseason No. 5 team and played differently than in years past. Well, the chip is back! They will not be in the top 10 and all the talk is "Michigan or Ohio State" to win the East. Well, this just in, Michigan State beat both of those teams on the road last year (with a combined 37-15 edge in first downs) and gets them both at home this year! The Spartans also avoid Iowa and Nebraska out of the West. They are one of the least experienced teams in the country according to my ratings, with just 10 returning starters. But Mark Dantonio will have them coached up and they are back in their preferred spot of being overlooked.
[h=2]10. Ole Miss Rebels[/h]
The Rebels lose a lot of talent to the NFL and have an NCAA investigation over their heads. But they have plenty of talent, led by QB Chad Kelly, and just destroyed Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl to finish in the top 10 for the first time since 1969. They had the most impressive regular-season win of any team in the country, when they beat eventual national champ Alabama on the road. They have risen to No. 3 in the polls each of the past two years and hope to break through in 2016. Alabama and LSU are both top-five teams this year, but Ole Miss beat both of them last year and gets the Tide at home in 2016. While the Rebels have just 10 returning starters, they figure to come in No. 11 in the AP poll. They got their first Sugar Bowl win since the days of Archie Manning -- now, can they win their first SEC title since 1962?
[h=2]11. Louisville Cardinals[/h]
The Cardinals play in the same division with two top-six teams, but if QB Lamar Jackson plays like he did in the Music City Bowl, they will be very potent on offense. They also have my No. 2-rated linebackers and No. 23-rated defensive backs. They missed a late field goal versus Clemson last year and lost by three points. They go from No. 117 in the country on my experience chart last year (nine returning starters) to No. 14 on that chart this year (17 returning starters). Head coach Bobby Petrino is in his third year back. They do have to win at Clemson, Marshall and Houston. But usually, for any team to win a title, you have to beat someone good.
[h=2]12. North Carolina Tar Heels[/h]playoffs. They lost a close ACC title game to Clemson. They were the No. 8 most experienced team in my 2015 ratings, but are No. 52 this year. They still rank in the top 22 in four of my eight position categories. The Coastal is winnable and if they do that, the Tar Heels are in the ACC title game.
[h=2]13. Oregon Ducks[/h]
Can Mark Helfrich keep this program at the top? At 3-3 last year, people openly wondered if the Ducks would make a bowl, and their four losses were the most since 2007. This is the type of Ducks team that usually bounces back, as they had six straight years of 12 or more wins and get the top two teams in the North at Autzen Stadium, where they are 64-5 the past seven years.
[h=2]BONUS TEAM[/h][h=2]Nebraska Cornhuskers[/h]
This year, my highest-rated surprise team that had a losing record the previous year is Nebraska. Remember, the Cornhuskers lost five games in the final seconds last year and were basically five plays away from being 11-2. They are much stronger in Mike Riley's second year, so they could certainly surprise.
Phil SteeleESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Editor's note: This article was adapted from Phil Steele's college football preview magazine, which is available here.
Almost any College Football Playoff projection for 2016 starts with last year's finalists, Alabama and Clemson.
But what are the teams that could stun the college football universe and make a playoff run?
Here are my 13 biggest potential surprise teams for 2016 -- plus a bonus long-shot pick.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
1. Washington Huskies
Florida State was my No. 1 surprise team in 2013 and the Seminoles won the national title. Washington is coming off a 7-6 season. The Huskies were very young last year (nine returning starters, No. 107 on my experience ratings chart). They had a true freshman QB and a tough schedule. They got a key road win over a ranked USC and later won the Apple Cup to get to six wins. This year they are much more experienced with 15 returning starters. They lose only six lettermen off a defense that allowed 18.8 points per game in 2015. Wide receiver John Ross is their most explosive playmaker and he returns after missing 2015 with an injury. They have a 1,000-yard rusher in Myles Gaskin, a QB with experience and a veteran offensive line. They are a complete team with my No. 19-rated special-teams unit. Husky Stadium is one of the loudest venues in the country and they have seven home games this year, including Stanford and USC. Coaches usually hit their stride in Year 3 with three recruiting classes, their systems and philosophies firmly implemented. Chris Petersen is an excellent on-field coach with an overall record of 107-24, and the Huskies' schedule drops from my fifth-toughest slate in 2015 to No. 56 this year. They are my pick to win the rugged Pac-12 North and that gives them a great shot at getting into the 2016 playoff.
[h=2]2. TCU Horned Frogs[/h][h=2][/h]
Last year, the Horned Frogs at one point were 8-0 and No. 5 in the country. They had a 36-16 first-down edge at Oklahoma State but lost by 20 due to being minus-4 in turnover differential. Two games later, with star QB Trevone Boykin and All-American WR Josh Doctson both out, they missed a two-point conversion with 51 seconds left going for the win in a one-point loss to CF-bound Oklahoma on the road. They finished No. 7, but with just 10 returning starters they will not likely even be in the top 15 to start the season. They have more experience on offense than their three returning starters would indicate. Remember that prior to the 2014 season, Boykin was thought to be better at WR than QB, so newcomer Kenny Hill could thrive in this offense in 2016. Gary Patterson knows defense, and the Frogs bring back 77.3 percent of their tacklers for 2016. Of their five road games this year, they face only two teams that had winning records last year, and Baylor is going through a late coaching change. They get Oklahoma at home in October and a win there would put them in the driver's seat for the Big 12 title and a playoff berth.
[h=2]3. Iowa Hawkeyes[/h]
The Hawkeyes came within one play of making the CFP last year despite coming off a 7-6 season in 2014. Michigan State got a TD with 27 seconds left to edge out a 12-0 Iowa team in the Big Ten title game. Yes, Iowa was not an overly impressive team at times last year but did go 12-0 in the regular season and led Michigan State for most of that game. The Hawkeyes are actually a more experienced team this year, going from No. 98 in my experience rankings to No. 74 in 2016. A lot of folks say they got to 12-0 because of a favorable schedule and that is true, but this year's team could be even better. The Hawkeyes have five road games and only one is against a team that had a winning record last year (Penn State, at 7-6). They will have only one team on their schedule that will make the preseason top 25 (Michigan), which they get at home. Last year the Hawkeyes lost their top defensive lineman, Drew Ott, early in the year, so they are more experienced in the front seven and have Jim Thorpe winner Desmond King patrolling the secondary, with eight starters back on defense. QB C.J. Beathard will work behind a veteran O-line. I do not think the Hawkeyes are one of the top five teams in the country talentwise, but they could end up being favored in all 12 games, and an undefeated Big Ten champion would make the playoff.
[h=2]4. Baylor Bears[/h][h=2][/h]
Baylor had been in my projected preseason top 11, but I don't think voters will put them in the top 10 after they lost coach Art Briles after the spring. This team does have some question marks on both the offensive and defensive lines but I do like the replacements there. They have my No. 5-rated QBs, No. 7 running backs, No. 16 receivers, and both their linebackers and defensive backs rank in my top units. Baylor has its usual soft nonconference schedule. The Bears do face Oklahoma on the road but won there 48-14 just two years ago. Bottom line is, this team has top-10 talent and the Bears have the schedule to do some damage as well. They also get my No. 2 surprise team, TCU, at home. Everyone has quickly dismissed their chances this year but veteran head coach Jim Grobe has a lot of good talent to work with.
[h=2]5. UCLA Bruins[/h]
Of all the Power 5 head coaches hired since 2005, only four of them have won nine-plus games overall and at least six conference games in each of their first three years. Three of those are Jimbo Fisher, Urban Meyer (Fisher and Meyer won national titles in their fourth years) and Mark Helfrich, whose team played in the title game in 2014 and finished No. 2. The fourth of that group is the head coach of my No. 5 surprise team, UCLA. Jim Mora came up one win shy of those totals in his fourth year but UCLA was playing for the Pac 12 South title in the final game. This year the Bruins have only four returning starters on offense but one of them is QB Josh Rosen and I rate all his supporting units in my top 28 at their positions. The defense was ravaged by injuries last year, losing its best LB (Myles Jack), top defensive lineman (Eddie Vanderdoes) and top two cornerbacks all within the first month of the season, a reason the Bruins came up short of expectations. They get back Vanderdoes and go from basically four returning starters (after the losses) to nine returning starters this year. Last year, the Bruins had to face four teams that were ranked during the year on the road. This year they may face just one. They get USC, Utah and Stanford at home, and avoid Oregon and Washington out of the North. Now, Jim's dad may say "Playoffs? Playoffs?" But I think the younger Mora is under a much different circumstance than when that question was asked. UCLA is my pick to get to the Pac-12 title game and that gives the Bruins a great shot at making the CFP.
[h=2]6. Miami Hurricanes[/h]
Last year I had the Hurricanes on my most improved list, but also had coach Al Golden near the top of my "Coaches on the Hot Seat List" on my website. They did not play up to their talent level. They did stand toe-to-toe with Florida State on the road, but after a 58-0 loss to Clemson (QB Brad Kaaya was lost to injury in the first half). Three turnovers deep in Washington State territory cost them a bowl win and a 9-3 year. Mark Richt will get the most out of the talent on hand. Kaaya will be one of the top QBs taken in next year's draft. Miami has my No. 13 running back group, No. 21 receivers, No. 16 offensive line, No. 20 defensive line, No. 36 linebackers, No. 30 defensive backs and No. 15 special-teams unit. The Hurricanes are one of only 11 teams to rank in my top units in all eight position categories. They face only three teams that will be in the preseason top 25, and if they win the Coastal, beat the powerful Atlantic champ and have either zero or one losses, they will be headed to the playoffs.
[h=2]7. Georgia Bulldogs[/h]
Mark Richt's new team is my No. 6 surprise team, but his old one comes in just one spot behind. Richt left behind a lot of talent and the Bulldogs have a head coach who has quite a few national titles as Alabama's defensive coordinator. Georgia ranks in my top units in five of the eight categories. Running back Nick Chubb was lost for the season at the start of the Tennessee game last year and his return, teamed with Sony Michel, running behind my No. 7-rated O-line will give the Bulldogs a strong run game. New head coach Kirby Smart has six starters back from a defense that allowed just 16.9 points per game. The Bulldogs have only four true road games this year, and three are against teams that had losing records last year. They get SEC East favorite Tennessee at home (Georgia has won its past four against the Vols in Athens). The Dawgs do draw Ole Miss on the road, but that might be the only game in which they are an underdog this year. In the past three years, Georgia has been favored in 36 of its 39 games but has a disappointing record of 28-11 in that span. Sometimes a coaching change (Richt was there 15 years) can bring a different attitude and maybe take care of business in that favorites role.
[h=2]8. Houston Cougars[/h][h=2][/h]
[h=2][/h]Last year my No. 8 surprise team, Houston, was a surprise top-10 team at the end of the year. The Cougars caught Louisville in a sandwich situation last year and pulled a home upset, and their only loss -- to UConn -- under Tom Herman came under some extenuating circumstances. They were off down-to-the-wire wins over Cincinnati and a ranked Memphis team at home, had the AAC West title game versus Navy on deck and were without starting QB Greg Ward, while taking on a team playing in its home finale, playing its most important game of the month and trying to be bowl eligible, while Houston was making a rare trip to the East Coast in November. The Cougars upset Florida State in the Peach Bowl to finish 13-1 and No. 8. The Cougars have a Heisman-contending QB in Ward and while just 11 starters return, they are a stronger team in Herman's second year. If they can knock off Oklahoma (in Houston) in the opener, they would be favored in the rest of their games, and, if Oklahoma wins the Big 12, they can lay claim to the Big 12's spot in the four-team playoff.
[h=2]9. Michigan State Spartans[/h]
My No. 9 surprise team last year was Clemson, and the Tigers made it to the national title game. This year my No. 9 surprise team, Michigan State, also made it to the 2015 CFP but did not fare as well. The Spartans play best with a chip on their shoulder. Last year they came in as the preseason No. 5 team and played differently than in years past. Well, the chip is back! They will not be in the top 10 and all the talk is "Michigan or Ohio State" to win the East. Well, this just in, Michigan State beat both of those teams on the road last year (with a combined 37-15 edge in first downs) and gets them both at home this year! The Spartans also avoid Iowa and Nebraska out of the West. They are one of the least experienced teams in the country according to my ratings, with just 10 returning starters. But Mark Dantonio will have them coached up and they are back in their preferred spot of being overlooked.
[h=2]10. Ole Miss Rebels[/h]
The Rebels lose a lot of talent to the NFL and have an NCAA investigation over their heads. But they have plenty of talent, led by QB Chad Kelly, and just destroyed Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl to finish in the top 10 for the first time since 1969. They had the most impressive regular-season win of any team in the country, when they beat eventual national champ Alabama on the road. They have risen to No. 3 in the polls each of the past two years and hope to break through in 2016. Alabama and LSU are both top-five teams this year, but Ole Miss beat both of them last year and gets the Tide at home in 2016. While the Rebels have just 10 returning starters, they figure to come in No. 11 in the AP poll. They got their first Sugar Bowl win since the days of Archie Manning -- now, can they win their first SEC title since 1962?
[h=2]11. Louisville Cardinals[/h]
The Cardinals play in the same division with two top-six teams, but if QB Lamar Jackson plays like he did in the Music City Bowl, they will be very potent on offense. They also have my No. 2-rated linebackers and No. 23-rated defensive backs. They missed a late field goal versus Clemson last year and lost by three points. They go from No. 117 in the country on my experience chart last year (nine returning starters) to No. 14 on that chart this year (17 returning starters). Head coach Bobby Petrino is in his third year back. They do have to win at Clemson, Marshall and Houston. But usually, for any team to win a title, you have to beat someone good.
[h=2]12. North Carolina Tar Heels[/h]Florida State was my No. 1 surprise team in 2013 and the Seminoles won the national title. Washington is coming off a 7-6 season. The Huskies were very young last year (nine returning starters, No. 107 on my experience ratings chart). They had a true freshman QB and a tough schedule. They got a key road win over a ranked USC and later won the Apple Cup to get to six wins. This year they are much more experienced with 15 returning starters. They lose only six lettermen off a defense that allowed 18.8 points per game in 2015. Wide receiver John Ross is their most explosive playmaker and he returns after missing 2015 with an injury. They have a 1,000-yard rusher in Myles Gaskin, a QB with experience and a veteran offensive line. They are a complete team with my No. 19-rated special-teams unit. Husky Stadium is one of the loudest venues in the country and they have seven home games this year, including Stanford and USC. Coaches usually hit their stride in Year 3 with three recruiting classes, their systems and philosophies firmly implemented. Chris Petersen is an excellent on-field coach with an overall record of 107-24, and the Huskies' schedule drops from my fifth-toughest slate in 2015 to No. 56 this year. They are my pick to win the rugged Pac-12 North and that gives them a great shot at getting into the 2016 playoff.
[h=2]2. TCU Horned Frogs[/h][h=2][/h]
Last year, the Horned Frogs at one point were 8-0 and No. 5 in the country. They had a 36-16 first-down edge at Oklahoma State but lost by 20 due to being minus-4 in turnover differential. Two games later, with star QB Trevone Boykin and All-American WR Josh Doctson both out, they missed a two-point conversion with 51 seconds left going for the win in a one-point loss to CF-bound Oklahoma on the road. They finished No. 7, but with just 10 returning starters they will not likely even be in the top 15 to start the season. They have more experience on offense than their three returning starters would indicate. Remember that prior to the 2014 season, Boykin was thought to be better at WR than QB, so newcomer Kenny Hill could thrive in this offense in 2016. Gary Patterson knows defense, and the Frogs bring back 77.3 percent of their tacklers for 2016. Of their five road games this year, they face only two teams that had winning records last year, and Baylor is going through a late coaching change. They get Oklahoma at home in October and a win there would put them in the driver's seat for the Big 12 title and a playoff berth.
[h=2]3. Iowa Hawkeyes[/h]
The Hawkeyes came within one play of making the CFP last year despite coming off a 7-6 season in 2014. Michigan State got a TD with 27 seconds left to edge out a 12-0 Iowa team in the Big Ten title game. Yes, Iowa was not an overly impressive team at times last year but did go 12-0 in the regular season and led Michigan State for most of that game. The Hawkeyes are actually a more experienced team this year, going from No. 98 in my experience rankings to No. 74 in 2016. A lot of folks say they got to 12-0 because of a favorable schedule and that is true, but this year's team could be even better. The Hawkeyes have five road games and only one is against a team that had a winning record last year (Penn State, at 7-6). They will have only one team on their schedule that will make the preseason top 25 (Michigan), which they get at home. Last year the Hawkeyes lost their top defensive lineman, Drew Ott, early in the year, so they are more experienced in the front seven and have Jim Thorpe winner Desmond King patrolling the secondary, with eight starters back on defense. QB C.J. Beathard will work behind a veteran O-line. I do not think the Hawkeyes are one of the top five teams in the country talentwise, but they could end up being favored in all 12 games, and an undefeated Big Ten champion would make the playoff.
[h=2]4. Baylor Bears[/h][h=2][/h]
Baylor had been in my projected preseason top 11, but I don't think voters will put them in the top 10 after they lost coach Art Briles after the spring. This team does have some question marks on both the offensive and defensive lines but I do like the replacements there. They have my No. 5-rated QBs, No. 7 running backs, No. 16 receivers, and both their linebackers and defensive backs rank in my top units. Baylor has its usual soft nonconference schedule. The Bears do face Oklahoma on the road but won there 48-14 just two years ago. Bottom line is, this team has top-10 talent and the Bears have the schedule to do some damage as well. They also get my No. 2 surprise team, TCU, at home. Everyone has quickly dismissed their chances this year but veteran head coach Jim Grobe has a lot of good talent to work with.
[h=2]5. UCLA Bruins[/h]
Of all the Power 5 head coaches hired since 2005, only four of them have won nine-plus games overall and at least six conference games in each of their first three years. Three of those are Jimbo Fisher, Urban Meyer (Fisher and Meyer won national titles in their fourth years) and Mark Helfrich, whose team played in the title game in 2014 and finished No. 2. The fourth of that group is the head coach of my No. 5 surprise team, UCLA. Jim Mora came up one win shy of those totals in his fourth year but UCLA was playing for the Pac 12 South title in the final game. This year the Bruins have only four returning starters on offense but one of them is QB Josh Rosen and I rate all his supporting units in my top 28 at their positions. The defense was ravaged by injuries last year, losing its best LB (Myles Jack), top defensive lineman (Eddie Vanderdoes) and top two cornerbacks all within the first month of the season, a reason the Bruins came up short of expectations. They get back Vanderdoes and go from basically four returning starters (after the losses) to nine returning starters this year. Last year, the Bruins had to face four teams that were ranked during the year on the road. This year they may face just one. They get USC, Utah and Stanford at home, and avoid Oregon and Washington out of the North. Now, Jim's dad may say "Playoffs? Playoffs?" But I think the younger Mora is under a much different circumstance than when that question was asked. UCLA is my pick to get to the Pac-12 title game and that gives the Bruins a great shot at making the CFP.
[h=2]6. Miami Hurricanes[/h]
Last year I had the Hurricanes on my most improved list, but also had coach Al Golden near the top of my "Coaches on the Hot Seat List" on my website. They did not play up to their talent level. They did stand toe-to-toe with Florida State on the road, but after a 58-0 loss to Clemson (QB Brad Kaaya was lost to injury in the first half). Three turnovers deep in Washington State territory cost them a bowl win and a 9-3 year. Mark Richt will get the most out of the talent on hand. Kaaya will be one of the top QBs taken in next year's draft. Miami has my No. 13 running back group, No. 21 receivers, No. 16 offensive line, No. 20 defensive line, No. 36 linebackers, No. 30 defensive backs and No. 15 special-teams unit. The Hurricanes are one of only 11 teams to rank in my top units in all eight position categories. They face only three teams that will be in the preseason top 25, and if they win the Coastal, beat the powerful Atlantic champ and have either zero or one losses, they will be headed to the playoffs.
[h=2]7. Georgia Bulldogs[/h]
Mark Richt's new team is my No. 6 surprise team, but his old one comes in just one spot behind. Richt left behind a lot of talent and the Bulldogs have a head coach who has quite a few national titles as Alabama's defensive coordinator. Georgia ranks in my top units in five of the eight categories. Running back Nick Chubb was lost for the season at the start of the Tennessee game last year and his return, teamed with Sony Michel, running behind my No. 7-rated O-line will give the Bulldogs a strong run game. New head coach Kirby Smart has six starters back from a defense that allowed just 16.9 points per game. The Bulldogs have only four true road games this year, and three are against teams that had losing records last year. They get SEC East favorite Tennessee at home (Georgia has won its past four against the Vols in Athens). The Dawgs do draw Ole Miss on the road, but that might be the only game in which they are an underdog this year. In the past three years, Georgia has been favored in 36 of its 39 games but has a disappointing record of 28-11 in that span. Sometimes a coaching change (Richt was there 15 years) can bring a different attitude and maybe take care of business in that favorites role.
[h=2]8. Houston Cougars[/h][h=2][/h]
[h=2][/h]Last year my No. 8 surprise team, Houston, was a surprise top-10 team at the end of the year. The Cougars caught Louisville in a sandwich situation last year and pulled a home upset, and their only loss -- to UConn -- under Tom Herman came under some extenuating circumstances. They were off down-to-the-wire wins over Cincinnati and a ranked Memphis team at home, had the AAC West title game versus Navy on deck and were without starting QB Greg Ward, while taking on a team playing in its home finale, playing its most important game of the month and trying to be bowl eligible, while Houston was making a rare trip to the East Coast in November. The Cougars upset Florida State in the Peach Bowl to finish 13-1 and No. 8. The Cougars have a Heisman-contending QB in Ward and while just 11 starters return, they are a stronger team in Herman's second year. If they can knock off Oklahoma (in Houston) in the opener, they would be favored in the rest of their games, and, if Oklahoma wins the Big 12, they can lay claim to the Big 12's spot in the four-team playoff.
[h=2]9. Michigan State Spartans[/h]
My No. 9 surprise team last year was Clemson, and the Tigers made it to the national title game. This year my No. 9 surprise team, Michigan State, also made it to the 2015 CFP but did not fare as well. The Spartans play best with a chip on their shoulder. Last year they came in as the preseason No. 5 team and played differently than in years past. Well, the chip is back! They will not be in the top 10 and all the talk is "Michigan or Ohio State" to win the East. Well, this just in, Michigan State beat both of those teams on the road last year (with a combined 37-15 edge in first downs) and gets them both at home this year! The Spartans also avoid Iowa and Nebraska out of the West. They are one of the least experienced teams in the country according to my ratings, with just 10 returning starters. But Mark Dantonio will have them coached up and they are back in their preferred spot of being overlooked.
[h=2]10. Ole Miss Rebels[/h]
The Rebels lose a lot of talent to the NFL and have an NCAA investigation over their heads. But they have plenty of talent, led by QB Chad Kelly, and just destroyed Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl to finish in the top 10 for the first time since 1969. They had the most impressive regular-season win of any team in the country, when they beat eventual national champ Alabama on the road. They have risen to No. 3 in the polls each of the past two years and hope to break through in 2016. Alabama and LSU are both top-five teams this year, but Ole Miss beat both of them last year and gets the Tide at home in 2016. While the Rebels have just 10 returning starters, they figure to come in No. 11 in the AP poll. They got their first Sugar Bowl win since the days of Archie Manning -- now, can they win their first SEC title since 1962?
[h=2]11. Louisville Cardinals[/h]
The Cardinals play in the same division with two top-six teams, but if QB Lamar Jackson plays like he did in the Music City Bowl, they will be very potent on offense. They also have my No. 2-rated linebackers and No. 23-rated defensive backs. They missed a late field goal versus Clemson last year and lost by three points. They go from No. 117 in the country on my experience chart last year (nine returning starters) to No. 14 on that chart this year (17 returning starters). Head coach Bobby Petrino is in his third year back. They do have to win at Clemson, Marshall and Houston. But usually, for any team to win a title, you have to beat someone good.
[h=2]12. North Carolina Tar Heels[/h]playoffs. They lost a close ACC title game to Clemson. They were the No. 8 most experienced team in my 2015 ratings, but are No. 52 this year. They still rank in the top 22 in four of my eight position categories. The Coastal is winnable and if they do that, the Tar Heels are in the ACC title game.
[h=2]13. Oregon Ducks[/h]
Can Mark Helfrich keep this program at the top? At 3-3 last year, people openly wondered if the Ducks would make a bowl, and their four losses were the most since 2007. This is the type of Ducks team that usually bounces back, as they had six straight years of 12 or more wins and get the top two teams in the North at Autzen Stadium, where they are 64-5 the past seven years.
[h=2]BONUS TEAM[/h][h=2]Nebraska Cornhuskers[/h]
This year, my highest-rated surprise team that had a losing record the previous year is Nebraska. Remember, the Cornhuskers lost five games in the final seconds last year and were basically five plays away from being 11-2. They are much stronger in Mike Riley's second year, so they could certainly surprise.
