What do you do when you accidentally bet the wrong side?

KingEleven · Jul 21, 2016

Liked the under in a game, but accidentally placed the over. Called my book to get the error corrected and they could not change it because the line moved up 1/2 run. Should I double up my bet the way I originally intended and suck up the juice on the other side or leave it on the over?

TheComputerGroup · Jul 21, 2016

Play the other side & lose the juice.......

KingEleven · Jul 21, 2016

The Computer Group said:
Play the other side & lose the juice.......

I ended up doubling my original intent

PatsFan1283 · Jul 21, 2016

In the long-term, you will be better off letting it ride in that spot. Overcoming hitting 57% just to break even at -110 is too hard.

KingEleven · Jul 21, 2016

PatsFan1283 said:
In the long-term, you will be better off letting it ride in that spot. Overcoming hitting 57% just to break even at -110 is too hard.

I feel like an idiot for making this mistake. No excuse. Slapping-silly90))

slapshot · Jul 21, 2016

PatsFan1283 · Jul 21, 2016

KingEleven said:
I feel like an idiot for making this mistake. No excuse. Slapping-silly90))

If you bet 110 to win 100 and you made the wrong bet, then you and bet 220 to win 200. If the new bet wins you win $90, if the old bet hits you lose 120.

So the new bet needs to win $90 about 57% of the time to break even.

Willie99 · Jul 21, 2016

curse

Hamilbet · Jul 21, 2016

I leave it.

Thou shalt not question nor provoke the gambling gods.

KingEleven · Jul 21, 2016

well the game in question is the White Sox game, so now I hope it lands on exactly 10!

Betallsports · Jul 21, 2016

it depends on how strong you feel about your intended bet.

I have made this mistake more than a few times, and it has even out

TomGshotput · Jul 21, 2016

PatsFan1283 said:
If you bet 110 to win 100 and you made the wrong bet, then you and bet 220 to win 200. If the new bet wins you win $90, if the old bet hits you lose 120.

So the new bet needs to win $90 about 57% of the time to break even.

But the original bet was only made because we felt it had a 52.5% chance or better. Instead we fucked up and took the side with a 47.5% chance or worse. So the original bet loses us around $10 in expected value no matter what. If we then bet $220 on the other side, our expected value on that games gets slightly less worse.

Lets use 55%, which is still lower than your claimed 57%. We bet the side with a 45% chance of winning 100 times for $110 and we let it ride, we lose $1550 after winning only 45 of the 100 bets. Had we instead also bet the side with a 55% chance of winning for $220 we would have only lost $450

(If we're betting according to Kelly Criterion, we should only increase our bet by 1.99 times, not double it)

Mr_Mark · Jul 21, 2016

slapshot said:
Win

lol

PatsFan1283 · Jul 21, 2016

TomGshotput said:
But the original bet was only made because we felt it had a 52.5% chance or better. Instead we fucked up and took the side with a 47.5% chance or worse. So the original bet loses us around $10 in expected value no matter what. If we then bet $220 on the other side, our expected value on that games gets slightly less worse.

Lets use 55%, which is still lower than your claimed 57%. We bet the side with a 45% chance of winning 100 times for $110 and we let it ride, we lose $1550 after winning only 45 of the 100 bets. Had we instead also bet the side with a 55% chance of winning for $220 we would have only lost $450

(If we're betting according to Kelly Criterion, we should only increase our bet by 1.99 times, not double it)

I didn't claim 57%, that is what the breakeven point is if these are 50/50 bets.

Which I think 99% of side bets are.

Yes, if you feel you are hitting 55% then you should bet it back. The great majority of people will lose $ long-term doing what you are saying though.

KingEleven · Jul 22, 2016

as it turns out, it was rain that screwed me...ugh

What do you do when you accidentally bet the wrong side?

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