Big Ten's Annual Kiss of Death

RunLeeRun · Jul 22, 2016

Ohio State you've been kissed. Brought to you by the Big Ten's unofficial Cleveland.com media poll.

[FONT=&quot]Since 2011, when the Big Ten stopped gathering preseason picks from journalists, cleveland.com has conducted the most official preseason Big Ten poll. Every other major conference gathers an official poll and releases it as part of its preseason event.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The Big Ten will hold its two days of interviews and promotion in Chicago on Monday and Tuesday, and cleveland.com will be there. But this is the only preseason poll you'll get. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]And it will probably be wrong.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]This poll has never correctly picked the Big Ten champion in five tries.

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Big Ten Champion
Ohio State (27)
Michigan (11)
Iowa (1)

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RunLeeRun · Jul 22, 2016

Examining further

The preseason favorite hasn’t won the Big Ten in any of the last five years. In fact, of those 139 ballots, only 18 have picked the right winner (12.9 percent). The Big Ten media are a little better at picking division champs, accurate on 73 of 285 total selections (25.6 percent), but only 5 percent of voters properly predicted the two teams that would make it to the Big Ten title game.

Here is the two team list of the 39 voters (from post 1 link):

Ohio State over Iowa (24)
Michigan over Iowa (6)
Michigan over Wisconsin (2)
Michigan over Nebraska (2)
Ohio State over Minnesota (1)
Ohio State over Wisconsin (1)
Ohio State over Nebraska (1)
Michigan over Northwestern (1)
Iowa over Ohio State (1)

cloverleaf · Jul 23, 2016

I realize Ohio State lost a ton of talented and experienced players off last year's
team but I also know Urban Meyer is 31-1 in conference play during his 4 years
with the school. He's recruited top tier players and he sure knows how to coach
them up.

That Ohio State/Michigan game will be BIG!

Because of C.J. Beathard back at QB and a defense that will be one of the toughest
in the league...got to like Iowa in the Big Ten West.

RunLeeRun · Jul 23, 2016

That's exactly what most of the media voters believe as well.

cloverleaf · Jul 24, 2016

Run Lee...I realize you are heavy on Nebraska and you may have something...even
though I doubt it. I have Nebraska a tad ahead of Wisconsin in league play. My take
is Ohio State (1), Iowa (2), Michigan (3) and Nebraska (4). Wisconsin might surprise
and Michigan State will be in the ball park.

Just my take and welcome yours..........................

rolltide · Jul 24, 2016

interesting that iowa got the most votes to be in the B10 championship game. From a pure numbers S&P stand point they were in a dead heat with nebraska 2015 but just happened to pull out a lot of games late (pitt, iowa st, wisc, minn, nebby, indy all 1 score games). I just don't see them as a runaway favorite in the west

They got 33 first place votes ... next closest rec'd 3 :think2:

WEST 1. Iowa 265 (33) 2. Nebraska 206 (3) 3. Wisconsin 194.5 (2) 4. Northwestern 171.5 (1) 5. Minnesota 132 (1) 6. Illinois 76.5 7. Purdue 46.5 - See more at: http://btn.com/2016/07/22/ohio-stat...16-media-preseason-poll/#sthash.EsSwp7h2.dpuf

RunLeeRun · Jul 24, 2016

Im not heavy on Nebraska, Ive not decided who wins the west. Last year I picked Wisconsin, fwiw. Just pointing out the trend. Big Ten writers are horrible at projection. There isnt ANY team in the west that should be that kind of runaway in the vote tally.

RT, is right. Iowa and Neb are similar is advanced stats, yet 12-0 vs 5-7. Iowa won the close ones, NU lost. Go check the NU/IA boxscore and tell me which team "should" have won. Iowa may still win this thing because of schedule, but odds are all the bounces wont go there way again. They are reminding me a bit if Michigan a few years back when I called them a farse in spite if almost everybody else here being high on them.

Iowa has almost no dynamic play makers on O and a qb that wont win or lose the game. Dline and Lb are good, but the secondary cant get nicked up, or they could be in trouble. Given their history, I think they come back down to earth.

The offenses should be pretty bad this year in big ten land, with the exception of a few. NU will be one of those. Loaded at the skill position, if they can get a 3400 yard qb to stop throwing into coverage, they'll be able to protect an average defense. I think it very well could come down to Black Friday.

RunLeeRun · Nov 26, 2016

The juju continues.

bukis1 · Nov 26, 2016

Couldn't believe they picked us this yr. after losing 18 starters. But hey I'll take 11-1 every yr with a win over trim. Guess they'll pick us again next yr.. We are the youngest team in college football this yr.

varkeyboy · Nov 27, 2016

bukis 1 said:
Couldn't believe they picked us this yr. after losing 18 starters. But hey I'll take 11-1 every yr with a win over trim. Guess they'll pick us again next yr.. We are the youngest team in college football this yr.

Wow. Impressive. Didn't know they were the YOUNGEST team in Div 1....?

RunLeeRun · Jul 24, 2017

Here we go again. Year seven of the defacto Big Ten Conference prediction machine. Is this the lucky year that the group of writers that know the conference better than anyone else can actually pick a winner? They prognosticators seem to be getting worse.

From last year:

RunLeeRun said:
The preseason favorite hasn’t won the Big Ten in any of the last five years. In fact, of those 139 ballots, only 18 have picked the right winner (12.9 percent). The Big Ten media are a little better at picking division champs, accurate on 73 of 285 total selections (25.6 percent), but only 5 percent of voters properly predicted the two teams that would make it to the Big Ten title game.

So, the running count is 18 correct winners in 178 ballots for 10.1% accuracy. Divisions winners at 75/369 for 20.3% accuracy. Just a complete bomb really.

So here are their divisions by 1st place votes
1) Ohio State (34).....................1) Wisconsin (31)
2) Penn State (7)......................2) Northwestern (5)
3) Michigan (1).........................3) Nebraska (2)

Conference winner

1) Ohio State (29)
2) Wisconsin (4)
3) Penn State (4)
4) Michigan (1)

Statcentral14 · Jul 24, 2017

1 vote for Michigan!?

RunLeeRun · Jul 25, 2017

Don't be too surprised. They can barely pick their own noses. Only 2 votes of 78 got a division winner right last year. Nobody picked Penn State, only two picked Wisconsin.

doglover · Jul 25, 2017

It's interesting to compare the results of the B10 media poll with the projections for the B10 in the "2017 Preseason Consensus" on the stassen site. They are the same with the exception of having Maryland and Indiana switching 5th and 6th place in the East, and Purdue barely beating out Illinois for 6th place in the West - (where they had tied for 6th in the media poll).

rolltide · Jul 25, 2017

RunLeeRun said:
Don't be too surprised. They can barely pick their own noses. Only 2 votes of 78 got a division winner right last year. Nobody picked Penn State, only two picked Wisconsin.

was like that in SEC for many years until they all got smart and picked Bama every year

- same thing now going on with Ohio St even thought they have just 1 of L6 titles. Like Bama, I think they go on a big run and win 3 of next 4, or 4 of next 5. Stacked for 2017 and their recruiting is ridiculous...they can absolutely sustain like Bama

RunLeeRun · Jul 25, 2017

rolltide said:
was like that in SEC for many years until they all got smart and picked Bama every year

- same thing now going on with Ohio St even thought they have just 1 of L6 titles. Like Bama, I think they go on a big run and win 3 of next 4, or 4 of next 5. Stacked for 2017 and their recruiting is ridiculous...they can absolutely sustain like Bama

Ohio State seems the smart pick. And no chest beating here. I thought Wiscy's schedule would do them in too. It's just funny. They even did a revote one year when braxton miller got hurt before the season, changing to MSU. Ohio State won it that time. You might be right about an OSU run, but damn if I can't help think the jinx is real.

bornlivedie · Jul 25, 2017

Lee, who do you think meets in B10 championship game?

rolltide · Jul 25, 2017

RunLeeRun said:
Ohio State seems the smart pick. And no chest beating here. I thought Wiscy's schedule would do them in too. It's just funny. They even did a revote one year when braxton miller got hurt before the season, changing to MSU. Ohio State won it that time. You might be right about an OSU run, but damn if I can't help think the jinx is real.

i don't know the B10 writer's streak but SEC guys are 4 for their last 20 ... and that includes hitting the Tide last year. and it's not like there is any huge upsets in SEC title game. Since it's existence (1992) only twice has the SEC title game been won from a team outside the top 9 in the country

RunLeeRun · Jul 26, 2017

bornlivedie said:
Lee, who do you think meets in B10 championship game?

Im probably as bad or worse than the media, on the west side anyway. At least I've been right in saying that Ohio St isnt going to win it the last two years ('15 MSU, '16 UM) Im going three in a row. Im on Michigan....yes, I know they've got no returning starters. Playing smashmouth ball and defense, just wins in this conference. They've got a qb decision to make.

The west...Im too close to the forest. I always call that blackfriday game as the decider, and Im always wrong. Wisconsin should win it, but it's been bizarro world the last two years....dont sleep on the two NU's. I think those will be the top two QB's in the division.