[h=1]How to bet Sunday night's Dodgers-Cardinals game[/h]MLB Vegas ExpertsESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball returns to the National League, as the St. Louis Cardinals host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the rubber game of a three-game weekend series.
The Cardinals beat the Dodgers 4-3 in 16 innings on Friday night and the Dodgers evened the series with a 7-2 win on Saturday. The Dodgers enter Sunday as first in line in the NL wild-card race. The Cardinals are two games behind the Dodgers and would be on the outside looking in if the proverbial "playoffs were to begin today," as they're a game behind the Miami Marlins.
Our ESPN Chalk team of MLB handicappers, who try to help you end your betting week on a winning note, returned from our midseason break with Joe Peta and Erin Rynning suffering a rare loss with the Boston Red Sox (-120) as they fell 3-1 to the New York Yankees, but Dave Tuley won with under 7.5.
Peta continues to be our most profitable handicapper overall on Sunday nights at 8-4 for a net profit of 5.73 units (risking the price on the favorite to win 1 unit or laying 1 unit on the underdog) while Tuley is 6-2 for a net profit of 3.7 units on over/unders and Rynning dips to 2-1 with a profit of 0.8 units.
Here are our takes on the Dodgers-Cardinals matchup as Peta lands on a side, and Andrew Lange returns in place of Rynning to join Tuley with a look at the over/under.
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Westgate line: Dodgers (Scott Kazmir) -125 at Cardinals (Mike Mayers) +115
Over/under: 9 (over EVEN, under -120)
PickCenter Intel
Joe Peta: As of Friday, 253 different pitchers had started a game in the majors this season, an average of around 8.5 different starters per team. Tonight, in their 98th game of the season, the St. Louis Cardinals will use a spot starter for the first time all year. The Cardinals' incredible run of rotation stability fell victim to Mother Nature this week, as a rainout Tuesday led to a Wednesday doubleheader. As a result, tonight's originally projected starter, Carlos Martinez, can't go until Monday night. That means Sunday night viewers get to witness the MLB debut of Mike Mayers.
Like everyone else who hasn't created their own MiLB-to-MLB projection system, I'll be relying on the same readily-available projection models as everyone else, including, presumably, oddsmakers. Mayers has impressive sub-3.00 ERA results at two different levels of minor league ball this season, butSteamer projections, at least, aren't impressed by the accompanying low strikeout totals and foresee a pitcher with mid-4.00 ERA results with the big club.
Oddsmakers are forced to post a line in 2,430 different MLB games over the course of a season, so a lot of the line-making is formulaic. The easiest way to find an edge is to reverse engineer the elements which go into a game's line and identify a mispriced component. Obviously, there are a lot of moving parts each game, but based on tonight's price, I calculate oddsmakers are also valuing Mayers as a mid-4.00 ERA pitcher. I believe that's an opportunity for bettors.
Despite the fact that the Dodgers are under .500 in games not started byClayton Kershaw, and that St. Louis is the highest-scoring team in the National League, tonight marks the third game in a row that Los Angeles has been installed as a solid favorite. This is also despite being a Cardinals home game and that the injured Kershaw hasn't started any of the games. I found the Cardinals to be mispriced underdogs in the first two games of the series, and tonight even more so, as Kazmir profiles less favorably than Kenta Maeda andBrandon McCarthy, the Dodgers' starters for the first two games of the series.
Stock market investing is all about making decisions based on incomplete information, and tonight we get a taste of that in the form of the untested Mayers. With an above-average defense backing him and an above-average bullpen likely to be called upon as soon as the Dodgers' batting order turns over twice, I think we get some value backing the underdog tonight.
ESPN Chalk pick: St. Louis Cardinals +115.
Andrew Lange: After a rough start to the season, Los Angeles' Scott Kazmir has performed at an above-average National League level over the past two months. Spanning 10 starts, Kazmir shows a 3.40 ERA and the consistent ability to miss bats with 66 strikeouts in 53 innings. He has also managed to shore up his issues with the longball having allowed four during that span vs. 12 his first nine outings.
St. Louis will counter with right-handed rookie Mike Mayers, who was thrust into the roll after the staff was chewed up during Friday's 16-inning win over the Dodgers. Mayers was a third-round pick back in 2013, but had arm difficulty that led to thoracic outlet syndrome surgery last season. Mayers doesn't possess electric stuff but posted solid numbers in Triple-A (9 starts, 2.94 ERA) as a fastball/sinker-type arm.
From a league-wide perspective, totals have steadily climbed throughout the year because of the increase in home runs and thus scoring. We're now routinely seeing National League games outside of Coors Field lined at 9 and even 9.5. But at some point, the bubble will burst, and the post-All-Star Break numbers suggest it has already occurred.
My numbers show 41 overs and a whopping 75 unders (and a few pushes) over the last 10 days, including an incredible 1-14 O/U result this past Friday. With 9's still available on tonight's contest and two positive expectation starters on the hill, I feel like we're getting solid value on yet another inflated number.
ESPN Chalk pick: Under 9 (-120).
Dave Tuley: I like Peta's comment: "The easiest way to find an edge is to reverse engineer the elements which go into a game's line and identify a mispriced component," but I'm going to apply it to the over/under. He also made the point that Mayers' expected ERA would be in the mid-4.00 range With Kazmir coming in with a 4.30 ERA, it adds up to less than the Westgate's opening over/under of 9 (which is obviously shaded on the high side with it being Mayers' MLB debut).
Peta's comments about the Cardinals' defense and likely quick hook for Mayers also help matters. As for Kazmir, he handled the St. Louis lineup back on May 14, allowing just one run through eight innings before the Cards got to him in the ninth and he was pulled, but the Dodgers still won 5-3. That actually went over the total of 7.5, but would be under this inflated total of 9.
Besides, these teams are used to playing close, low-scoring games. Don't let this year's record of 3-2 to the over fool you; the under is 8-4 since the start of last season and 12-6 since the start of 2014, including playoffs (and don't think that a lot of this has to do with Clayton Kershaw's dominance; this series is 3-2 to the under in his games, but an even better 9-4 in games he hasn't started).
The plate umpire is Greg Gibson, who was considered an under ump in 2010-11 when games he umpired were 47-16-2 (74.6 percent) to the under. He has certainly cooled off since then at 69-68-4 to the over, although he is 9-8 with the under this season. While I certainly wouldn't bet him blindly, his presence behind the plate won't get me off the under. (Note: I was prepared to go under 8.5, especially at plus-money, which was the early total at the offshore book BetOnline and the Station Casinos books here in Vegas).
ESPN Chalk pick: Under 9 (-120).
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball returns to the National League, as the St. Louis Cardinals host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the rubber game of a three-game weekend series.
The Cardinals beat the Dodgers 4-3 in 16 innings on Friday night and the Dodgers evened the series with a 7-2 win on Saturday. The Dodgers enter Sunday as first in line in the NL wild-card race. The Cardinals are two games behind the Dodgers and would be on the outside looking in if the proverbial "playoffs were to begin today," as they're a game behind the Miami Marlins.
Our ESPN Chalk team of MLB handicappers, who try to help you end your betting week on a winning note, returned from our midseason break with Joe Peta and Erin Rynning suffering a rare loss with the Boston Red Sox (-120) as they fell 3-1 to the New York Yankees, but Dave Tuley won with under 7.5.
Peta continues to be our most profitable handicapper overall on Sunday nights at 8-4 for a net profit of 5.73 units (risking the price on the favorite to win 1 unit or laying 1 unit on the underdog) while Tuley is 6-2 for a net profit of 3.7 units on over/unders and Rynning dips to 2-1 with a profit of 0.8 units.
Here are our takes on the Dodgers-Cardinals matchup as Peta lands on a side, and Andrew Lange returns in place of Rynning to join Tuley with a look at the over/under.
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Over/under: 9 (over EVEN, under -120)
PickCenter Intel
Joe Peta: As of Friday, 253 different pitchers had started a game in the majors this season, an average of around 8.5 different starters per team. Tonight, in their 98th game of the season, the St. Louis Cardinals will use a spot starter for the first time all year. The Cardinals' incredible run of rotation stability fell victim to Mother Nature this week, as a rainout Tuesday led to a Wednesday doubleheader. As a result, tonight's originally projected starter, Carlos Martinez, can't go until Monday night. That means Sunday night viewers get to witness the MLB debut of Mike Mayers.
Like everyone else who hasn't created their own MiLB-to-MLB projection system, I'll be relying on the same readily-available projection models as everyone else, including, presumably, oddsmakers. Mayers has impressive sub-3.00 ERA results at two different levels of minor league ball this season, butSteamer projections, at least, aren't impressed by the accompanying low strikeout totals and foresee a pitcher with mid-4.00 ERA results with the big club.
Oddsmakers are forced to post a line in 2,430 different MLB games over the course of a season, so a lot of the line-making is formulaic. The easiest way to find an edge is to reverse engineer the elements which go into a game's line and identify a mispriced component. Obviously, there are a lot of moving parts each game, but based on tonight's price, I calculate oddsmakers are also valuing Mayers as a mid-4.00 ERA pitcher. I believe that's an opportunity for bettors.
Despite the fact that the Dodgers are under .500 in games not started byClayton Kershaw, and that St. Louis is the highest-scoring team in the National League, tonight marks the third game in a row that Los Angeles has been installed as a solid favorite. This is also despite being a Cardinals home game and that the injured Kershaw hasn't started any of the games. I found the Cardinals to be mispriced underdogs in the first two games of the series, and tonight even more so, as Kazmir profiles less favorably than Kenta Maeda andBrandon McCarthy, the Dodgers' starters for the first two games of the series.
Stock market investing is all about making decisions based on incomplete information, and tonight we get a taste of that in the form of the untested Mayers. With an above-average defense backing him and an above-average bullpen likely to be called upon as soon as the Dodgers' batting order turns over twice, I think we get some value backing the underdog tonight.
ESPN Chalk pick: St. Louis Cardinals +115.
Andrew Lange: After a rough start to the season, Los Angeles' Scott Kazmir has performed at an above-average National League level over the past two months. Spanning 10 starts, Kazmir shows a 3.40 ERA and the consistent ability to miss bats with 66 strikeouts in 53 innings. He has also managed to shore up his issues with the longball having allowed four during that span vs. 12 his first nine outings.
St. Louis will counter with right-handed rookie Mike Mayers, who was thrust into the roll after the staff was chewed up during Friday's 16-inning win over the Dodgers. Mayers was a third-round pick back in 2013, but had arm difficulty that led to thoracic outlet syndrome surgery last season. Mayers doesn't possess electric stuff but posted solid numbers in Triple-A (9 starts, 2.94 ERA) as a fastball/sinker-type arm.
From a league-wide perspective, totals have steadily climbed throughout the year because of the increase in home runs and thus scoring. We're now routinely seeing National League games outside of Coors Field lined at 9 and even 9.5. But at some point, the bubble will burst, and the post-All-Star Break numbers suggest it has already occurred.
My numbers show 41 overs and a whopping 75 unders (and a few pushes) over the last 10 days, including an incredible 1-14 O/U result this past Friday. With 9's still available on tonight's contest and two positive expectation starters on the hill, I feel like we're getting solid value on yet another inflated number.
ESPN Chalk pick: Under 9 (-120).
Dave Tuley: I like Peta's comment: "The easiest way to find an edge is to reverse engineer the elements which go into a game's line and identify a mispriced component," but I'm going to apply it to the over/under. He also made the point that Mayers' expected ERA would be in the mid-4.00 range With Kazmir coming in with a 4.30 ERA, it adds up to less than the Westgate's opening over/under of 9 (which is obviously shaded on the high side with it being Mayers' MLB debut).
Peta's comments about the Cardinals' defense and likely quick hook for Mayers also help matters. As for Kazmir, he handled the St. Louis lineup back on May 14, allowing just one run through eight innings before the Cards got to him in the ninth and he was pulled, but the Dodgers still won 5-3. That actually went over the total of 7.5, but would be under this inflated total of 9.
Besides, these teams are used to playing close, low-scoring games. Don't let this year's record of 3-2 to the over fool you; the under is 8-4 since the start of last season and 12-6 since the start of 2014, including playoffs (and don't think that a lot of this has to do with Clayton Kershaw's dominance; this series is 3-2 to the under in his games, but an even better 9-4 in games he hasn't started).
The plate umpire is Greg Gibson, who was considered an under ump in 2010-11 when games he umpired were 47-16-2 (74.6 percent) to the under. He has certainly cooled off since then at 69-68-4 to the over, although he is 9-8 with the under this season. While I certainly wouldn't bet him blindly, his presence behind the plate won't get me off the under. (Note: I was prepared to go under 8.5, especially at plus-money, which was the early total at the offshore book BetOnline and the Station Casinos books here in Vegas).
ESPN Chalk pick: Under 9 (-120).
