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Thread: Nate Silver says Trump would be favorite if election were held today

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  1. #26  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sheriff Joe View Post
    Vegas had David Price the favorite at -240 on Sat. Price lost.

    What's your point again?
    OK so lets take all the -240 favorites... What clip to they win at I wonder? You can cherry pick one -240 favorite losing but many more win than lose. On a side note the Twins aren't a team to mess with, they are 18 - 13 in last 31 games playing much like last year than the crap they put out there the first two months
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    like I said, you think the gamblers always win, you believe they know more than everyone else

    you cite some gambling theory, while I'm citing today's polls

    I'm OK with that and always comfortable with my reasoned positions
    I don't think the gamblers win, where do you get that? I am siding with Vegas, they are going to win the election money this year just like 4 years ago
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    and you believe those odds carry more weight than polls, I don't
    Of coarse not, you are using Pom Poms with a real rooting interest. I don't give a shit either way
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  4. #29  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BleedingPurple View Post
    Initially Vegas and then the Gamblers.
    OK, so it's not some know it all wise guy setting the odds, at least we agree on that

    My point is that perception moves the line, and how gamblers bet (and gamblers cannot be accused of winning all the time)

    That perception has been very one sided to date, the coverage has been very one sided, the money spent has been very one sided, and things are just beginning to turn

    If things continue to trend as they've been trending in recent polling data, the Vegas odds will swing

    Polls and perception move the lines, lines don't move the polls
    "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter". "A rising tide raises all boats". "MAGA"
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    Quote Originally Posted by BleedingPurple View Post
    Can Trump win? Maybe but to think he is the favorite is absurd, Vegas knows what they are doing is the point I am making. I can't stand Trump or Clinton, he acts like me posting the odds is like I am posting my own odds or I am favoring her. The thread is about who one person thinks is the Favorite, I'll side with Vegas. These guys are using their Pom Poms
    Yep...Willie has been bashing Silver for years....now he's citing him.

    Trump has a very good chance to win but long way off yet till Election Day.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BleedingPurple View Post
    Of coarse not, you are using Pom Poms with a real rooting interest. I don't give a shit either way
    I'm just citing the news of the day , I'm citing third party sources doing what they do all along, and my position that things can and do change never waivers

    That's not cheer-leading

    and while you say you hate Clinton, you're positions and responses always tend to side with Clinton and Clinton supporters, that is cheer-leading
    "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter". "A rising tide raises all boats". "MAGA"
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    Quote Originally Posted by BleedingPurple View Post
    OK so lets take all the -240 favorites... What clip to they win at I wonder? You can cherry pick one -240 favorite losing but many more win than lose. On a side note the Twins aren't a team to mess with, they are 18 - 13 in last 31 games playing much like last year than the crap they put out there the first two months
    -240 ML = 71% win probability

    The election odds will fluctuate considerably from now till Nov...so I'm still not sure what your point is.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    OK, so it's not some know it all wise guy setting the odds, at least we agree on that

    My point is that perception moves the line, and how gamblers bet (and gamblers cannot be accused of winning all the time)

    That perception has been very one sided to date, the coverage has been very one sided, the money spent has been very one sided, and things are just beginning to turn

    If things continue to trend as they've been trending in recent polling data, the Vegas odds will swing

    Polls and perception move the lines, lines don't move the polls
    Exactly and the perception has changed the line dramatically in the past 2 weeks. Hilary was a -385 two weeks ago, she's down to -245 and I bet she will get as low as - 150, what does that tell you? It tells you that there has been a lot of money dumped on Trump. I should have bet Trump long ago when it was evident he was going to get the GOP nomination, then waited to hedge on Hilary. Could have made a few grand as most books are limiting the action but should have flown to Vegas and could have made a ton. This is going down just like it did in 2012. Trump can win I'm not saying he can't but I still find it highly unlikely.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sheriff Joe View Post
    -240 ML = 71% win probability.

    The election odds will fluctuate considerably from now till Nov...so I'm still not sure what your point is.
    You are slow, my point is today... she has a 71% probability of winning according to Vegas, that's the only point I am making. I'm not saying it won't change, I'm not saying Trump is going to lose and she is going to win. I am saying that Vegas disagrees with Silver today.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BleedingPurple View Post
    You are slow, my point is today... she has a 71% probability of winning according to Vegas, that's the only point I am making. I'm not saying it won't change, I'm not saying Trump is going to lose and she is going to win. I am saying that Vegas disagrees with Silver today.
    Do you think she should be that big of a favorite? I sure as hell don't.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    and you believe those odds carry more weight than polls, I don't
    And we all know what an OUTSTANDING record you have when it comes to general election predictions, lol. You were a moron then, you're a moron NOW, and you will ALWAYS be a moron.

    I stated prior the the GOP convention that it wouldn't surprise me if Rump would be shown in the polls as being ahead after the convention, but then HRC gets to say, as Ali did in the last 3 rounds of his fight against Foreman, now it's MY turn-after the Dem convention, after more publicity is given to the fact that Rump is letting Putin Put in his Russian cock in Rump's rump, after he gets roasted for not showing his taxes(and with about 650 million in loans to the Russians-no bank in the US is stupid enough to lend that Asap-like welcher any money-that's hardly surprising), after more of the Trump University shit comes out, after the dozens of stupid things that Rump has said are played over and over again in commercials run by the amply funded DNC(as opposed to Rump who is broke and has conveniently forgotten his "self-funded" boast), and after she butchers him in the 3 debates(though I have a sneaking suspicion he may invent some pretext to avoid them, for obvious reasons), THEN you'll have a better idea of what the odds are. Hint: you're not gonna like 'em, Witless Willie.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mantis Toboggan View Post
    Do you think she should be that big of a favorite? I sure as hell don't.
    Did you think she should have been at -385 two weeks ago? No way, I missed the boat. Why do you think they set the line that high? They know damn well Trump money is all they will see
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    Quote Originally Posted by BleedingPurple View Post
    Did you think she should have been at -385 two weeks ago? No way, I missed the boat. Why do you think they set the line that high? They know damn well Trump money is all they will see
    I'm not sure that's entirely true, but that's just my opinion.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mantis Toboggan View Post
    I'm not sure that's entirely true, but that's just my opinion.
    Hmmmmm.....not sure either but if you listen to repubs here, dems are broke and have no jobs....so how will they be able to lay a huge price at post up sports books? So BP may be onto something. Ha
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mantis Toboggan View Post
    I'm not sure that's entirely true, but that's just my opinion.
    I thought it would be 2 -1 when it was at 385 I'm like wtf? Totally different than I thought considering the Trump steam on social media. Raised a red flag for me
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    Quote Originally Posted by vitterd View Post
    I though Nate Silver was clueless though? I mean that's what you and other repubs told us for years.

    So he's only worth citing when his data shows what you want. Do you ever get tired of getting smacked around?

    cue the lie about having me on ignore now!
    That's why they are the frauds, hypocrites, and easily led around Children they are. Mock Nate, and then come all over him when he agrees with them. That's why Wrong Way has Zero Cred, not only with clients who he failed, in failing to do his job, but with normal folks down here who know he's been a fake, phony, fraud for years, way before Franco C exposed him.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    damn, some people sure are fucking idiots
    can anyone guesser who that might be?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dafinch View Post
    You were a moron then, you're a moron NOW, and you will ALWAYS be a moron.

    Putin Put in his Russian cock in Rump's rump. Rump's rump! Giggle-Giggle. Rump's rump!
    Har-Har
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scott L View Post
    Hypocrite FRINGY Got yo hypocritical back, Wrong Way. As usual.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scott L View Post
    Har-Har
    Sad what Finchy has this lame, hypocritical FRINGY reduced to. Let him at least gather his teefus, dude. He's looks like Gassy after one of his Vit, or Minor League Hockey thorough beatdowns.
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  22. #47  
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    Quote Originally Posted by the guesser View Post
    that's why they are the frauds, hypocrites, and easily led around children they are. Mock nate, and then come all over him when he agrees with them. That's why wrong way has zero cred, not only with clients who he failed, in failing to do his job, but with normal folks down here who know he's been a fake, phony, fraud for years, way before franco c exposed him.
    brokered baby !
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  23. #48  
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    Quote Originally Posted by LENBO View Post
    brokered baby !



    remember that one? another great call by the fucking lemmings

    fucking idiots
    "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter". "A rising tide raises all boats". "MAGA"
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  24. #49  
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    Quote Originally Posted by LENBO View Post
    brokered baby !
    That was a wish, that didn't happen, sadly for the R's. Instead of a sane candidate, that would have been a lock to win, they are stuck with who they are stuck with.
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  25. #50  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BleedingPurple View Post
    Vegas disagrees
    Vegas is 2 weeks behind.....
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