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Thread: Nate Silver says Trump would be favorite if election were held today

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  1. #1 Nate Silver says Trump would be favorite if election were held today 
    Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory Willie99's Avatar
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    "but the convention was a failure"

    and "there was no convention bounce"

    ----If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.That's what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Mondayfor his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.
    In his "Now-cast" election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency.
    Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation's highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday.
    Silver's model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285 electoral votes in Silver's model.
    It's the first time in Silver's "Now-cast" forecast that Trump has been projected to win.
    However, in Silver's polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top. In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning, while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop-off from where they recently were hovering around 80%.
    Silver raised eyebrows Friday on Twitter when he pointed out "how plausible it is that Trump could become president."



    Nate Silver ------------------------------------
    "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter". "A rising tide raises all boats". "MAGA"
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  2. #2  
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    damn, some people sure are fucking idiots

    can anyone guesser who that might be?

    it just gets better and better every day
    "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter". "A rising tide raises all boats". "MAGA"
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  3. #3  
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    I though Nate Silver was clueless though? I mean that's what you and other repubs told us for years.

    So he's only worth citing when his data shows what you want. Do you ever get tired of getting smacked around?

    cue the lie about having me on ignore now!
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  4. #4  
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    Vegas disagrees
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  5. #5  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BleedingPurple View Post
    Vegas disagrees
    you ought to be ashamed of yourself, I think you know better

    the fucking idiots will always be fucking idiots, but you can't be happy with anything from policy to corruption

    when is enough enough?
    "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter". "A rising tide raises all boats". "MAGA"
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  6. #6  
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    Briexit

    stay was -400 3 days before the vote

    yep, gamblers always win (on a gambling forum no less, you can't make this shit up)

    "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter". "A rising tide raises all boats". "MAGA"
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  7. #7  
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    Nate Silver already hedging his bets?

    What a fraud.

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  8. #8  
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    Still too early for this. I remember looking at my WSEX screen and John Kerry was -450 on the morning of the election in 2004. How'd that one turn out?

    What has been getting lost in this is the media (and whoever doesn't like Trump) continues to look stupid. Every week, (insert Trump comment here) was going to be his downfall. He talked bad about illegal Mexicans, he's done! He talked bad about Megyn Kelly...he's finished! He talked bad about...whatever. It's so old now that most of them are finally taking him seriously. I hope, for his sake, the DNC doesn't.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BleedingPurple View Post
    Vegas disagrees
    Willie slammed the gambling markets in 08 and 12. Of course they were right and he was wrong. If that's the case again.....he will be back in 2020 with the same thing. How he can continue to be wrong and fail nonstop but mock others.....is unreal.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    Briexit

    stay was -400 3 days before the vote

    yep, gamblers always win (on a gambling forum no less, you can't make this shit up)

    There was a pretty good article on Business Insider attempting to explain why the polls and betting markets were so off about the Brexit vote.

    Should come up with a good search if anyone wants to check it out, but the crux was that they under polled rural and older populations I believe.
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  11. #11  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    you ought to be ashamed of yourself, I think you know better

    the fucking idiots will always be fucking idiots, but you can't be happy with anything from policy to corruption

    when is enough enough?
    WTF are you talking about? I should be ashamed of myself? WTF am I suppose to say? Vegas has Hilary the favorite at -245. I'm just posting facts.
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  12. #12  
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    Quote Originally Posted by JDeuce View Post
    Still too early for this. I remember looking at my WSEX screen and John Kerry was -450 on the morning of the election in 2004. How'd that one turn out?

    What has been getting lost in this is the media (and whoever doesn't like Trump) continues to look stupid. Every week, (insert Trump comment here) was going to be his downfall. He talked bad about illegal Mexicans, he's done! He talked bad about Megyn Kelly...he's finished! He talked bad about...whatever. It's so old now that most of them are finally taking him seriously. I hope, for his sake, the DNC doesn't.
    I know, it's far too early, there can and will be numerous swings between now and election day

    I'm just mocking the fucking idiots "dysfunctional RNC" and "no convention bounce"

    sometimes they make it way too easy, takes all the fun out of it
    "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter". "A rising tide raises all boats". "MAGA"
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    Quote Originally Posted by BleedingPurple View Post
    WTF are you talking about? I should be ashamed of myself? WTF am I suppose to say? Vegas has Hilary the favorite at -245. I'm just posting facts.
    Vegas had David Price the favorite at -240 on Sat. Price lost.

    What's your point again?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    Briexit

    stay was -400 3 days before the vote

    yep, gamblers always win (on a gambling forum no less, you can't make this shit up)

    Um the Gamblers are betting Trump? They aren't betting Hilary just like Romney the same shit happened 4 years ago. Obama was a huge huge favorite and then Romney money came in getting odds way low and Vegas taking all the election odds money. Why do you think they had Hilary as a 385 favorite? They know everyone is going to bet Trump and just like 4 years ago they are going to take that money. It's really simple.
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  15. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BleedingPurple View Post
    WTF are you talking about? I should be ashamed of myself? WTF am I suppose to say? Vegas has Hilary the favorite at -245. I'm just posting facts.
    not be appalled by failed policy, lies and corruption as you cite something which disproves nothing
    "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter". "A rising tide raises all boats". "MAGA"
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sheriff Joe View Post
    Vegas had David Price at -240 on Sat. Price lost.

    What's your point again?
    My point is the thread states Silver has Trump as the favorite today and that Vegas disagrees. You get that?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    not be appalled by failed policy, lies and corruption as you cite something which disproves nothing
    I can't stand Clinton. I'm just posting the odds
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  18. #18  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BleedingPurple View Post
    Um the Gamblers are betting Trump? They aren't betting Hilary just like Romney the same shit happened 4 years ago. Obama was a huge huge favorite and then Romney money came in getting odds way low and Vegas taking all the election odds money. Why do you think they had Hilary as a 385 favorite? They know everyone is going to bet Trump and just like 4 years ago they are going to take that money. It's really simple.

    like I said, you think the gamblers always win, you believe they know more than everyone else

    you cite some gambling theory, while I'm citing today's polls

    I'm OK with that and always comfortable with my reasoned positions
    "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter". "A rising tide raises all boats". "MAGA"
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  19. #19  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BleedingPurple View Post
    I can't stand Clinton. I'm just posting the odds
    and you believe those odds carry more weight than polls, I don't
    "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter". "A rising tide raises all boats". "MAGA"
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sheriff Joe View Post
    Vegas had David Price the favorite at -240 on Sat. Price lost.

    What's your point again?

    lmao. Same argument in 2012....even using the same pitcher as an example. When will you repubs learn? Comparing a sporting event to a political election
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    Quote Originally Posted by vitterd View Post
    Willie slammed the gambling markets in 08 and 12. Of course they were right and he was wrong. If that's the case again.....he will be back in 2020 with the same thing. How he can continue to be wrong and fail nonstop but mock others.....is unreal.
    Can Trump win? Maybe but to think he is the favorite is absurd, Vegas knows what they are doing is the point I am making. I can't stand Trump or Clinton, he acts like me posting the odds is like I am posting my own odds or I am favoring her. The thread is about who one person thinks is the Favorite, I'll side with Vegas. These guys are using their Pom Poms
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  22. #22  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BleedingPurple View Post
    Can Trump win? Maybe but to think he is the favorite is absurd, Vegas knows what they are doing is the point I am making. I can't stand Trump or Clinton, he acts like me posting the odds is like I am posting my own odds or I am favoring her. The thread is about who one person thinks is the Favorite, I'll side with Vegas. These guys are using their Pom Poms
    who decides the Vegas odds again?

    Vegas? or the gamblers?
    "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter". "A rising tide raises all boats". "MAGA"
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  23. #23  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    and you believe those odds carry more weight than polls, I don't
    Ok then we will have to disagree. With that logic then Vegas is giving away free money. I made a big mistake in this though and Vegas was indeed giving away free money. I should have bet Trump long ago when I seen the writing on the wall understanding that the line was high for Trump money then taking Hilary before the election. It happened 4 years ago and I should have had this planned a while back. Stupid
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  24. #24  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    who decides the Vegas odds again?

    Vegas? or the gamblers?
    Initially Vegas and then the Gamblers.
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  25. #25  
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    free money

    JFC
    "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter". "A rising tide raises all boats". "MAGA"
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