[h=1]How to bet Sunday night's matchup between the Mariners and Cubs[/h]MLB Vegas ExpertsESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
Viewers of ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball get a treat tonight for a number of reasons. To start, new blood. Seattle makes its first appearance on the Sunday night showcase in years, and by virtue of a pairing with the Chicago Cubs, tonight's broadcast features the two teams in each league that have gone the longest without making the World Series. Further, if you're going to tune in to watch the Mariners, you can't do better than seeing Hall-of-Fame candidateFelix Hernandez, who has precious few performances in the national spotlight, take to the mound. Even the home team's fans can delight in tonight's matchup; it's Hernandez' first start in Wrigley Field and only his second ever versus the Cubs, having taken a no-decision in a start six seasons ago.
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Taking a page from NBA roster-usage playbooks, the Cubs have opted to temporarily employ a six-man rotation, which will give not only tonight's originally scheduled starter, Kyle Hendricks, an extra day of rest, but the entire rotation as well. Gregg Popovich approves. Hoping to capture a little more magic from the castoffs of the Baltimore Orioles' wicked 2010-2012 rotation (see font, sarcasm), the Cubs have tabbed last month's free-agent signing Brian Matusz to make his first start for a team other than the Orioles after a successful nine-plus inning stint in triple-A Iowa. He'll recognize former teammate Jake Arrieta in the clubhouse, though the Cubs aren't looking for another Cy Young Award from this Orioles cast-off -- a quality start during the dog days of summer will be more than sufficient.
As MLB approaches the start of its last third of the season this week, each game takes on importance for those with October aspirations. After briefly relinquishing the distinction of having the best record in baseball to a couple of other teams near the midway point, the Cubs have once again assumed that mantle. Seattle, on the other hand, has more modest goals, as the Mariners need to put together a strong finish to the season if they are to make up enough ground to overcome meaningful deficits in the division (third place, seven games back of Texas) or the AL Wild Card Race (4.5 games behind Boston for the last spot.)
It's been a rough two weeks for the Chalk handicapping team as they've had post-All-Star struggles comparable to the San Francisco Giants. Joe Peta (8-5, +4.73 units on the season) looks to break his two-game skid with a call on the side while Andrew Lange, who returned with an unsuccessful totals play last week, also chooses a side.
Editor's Note: Lines are subject to change based on time and location, and these picks were made based on prices at the time of filing. Be aware of differences in available odds and consider the included analysis relative to the stated lines within the article when placing bets.
Westgate line: Mariners (Felix Hernandez) +115 at Cubs (Brian Matusz) -125
Over/under: 8 (over -120, under +100)
PickCenter Intel
Joe Peta: To paraphrase, Indiana Jones, "why did it have to be Matusz?"
Brian Matusz stands as the very definition of a failed starter who later found success in the bullpen. Exclusively a starter for the first half of his career, Matusz posted a ghastly, sub-replacement 5.51 ERA in 68 starts before moving to the bullpen during the 2012 season where he subsequently posted a 3.16 ERA in 165 innings as a reliever.
Eventually though, even the Orioles gave up on their once highly-regarded prospect (fourth-overall pick in the 2008 draft) and included him as ballast in a disguised, draft pick trade with the Braves this May; Atlanta immediately cut Matusz, which is how the Cubs ended up signing him as a free agent. The problem with backing him tonight is that he still profiles as a terrible starter and he's being asked to do so tonight as a greater than 60% implied favorite.
If you're reading a betting matchup piece on ESPN Chalk, you're probably more than a casual fan of baseball, but a casual fan would almost certainly be shocked at seeing Felix Hernandez as such a big underdog, to the point that you might even suspect the odds above were erroneously reversed. The truth, though, is that despite a very King Felix-like ERA of 2.86 through his first ten starts in 2016, Fernandez' underlying peripherals, dating back to last year, suggest a pitcher not just in decline, but perhaps in steep decline. Any hope that the deteriorating performance could be blamed on an injury that simply needed some time on the disabled list has been dashed by his last two starts following a nearly two-month stint on the DL, as Hernandez has allowed nine earned runs in just over 13 innings of work this month, striking out just five of the 59 batters he's faced.
His new status as an "auto-fade candidate" among baseball's data-driven bettors has to some degree been recognized by oddsmakers as well, judging by the underdog odds he's been assigned tonight. Again, not to put too fine a point on it, the former Cy Young Award winner (and two-time runner-up) is matched against a pitcher with a lifetime ERA of 5.51 as a starter. Still, I have to use the same logic I used (unsuccessfully) last week. Matusz is backed by an outstanding defense and Maddon will certainly have a quick hook when it comes to getting him out of the game. In all other ways, the Cubs are vastly superior to the Mariners. I don't love this pick (in contrast to last week's loss, which I felt very strongly about) but with Hernandez showing almost no ability to get swing and miss strikes against a team with the highest walk rate in baseball, the value is still on the Cubs.
But still, why'd it have to be Brian Matusz?
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago Cubs, -125.
Andrew Lange: Felix Hernandez has had an amazing career, but we're currently witnessing the wear and tear of 10 straight seasons of averaging 200+ innings. His two starts since returning from the DL were alarming, as he allowed nine runs and struck out only five batters (one was a pitcher) over 12 2/3 innings. On the season, Hernandez's ERA sits at a respectable 3.45, but his FIP is over a full run higher (4.54) and that doesn't even include the incredibly favorable schedule he's faced. Of his 12 starts, only one (Texas, ranked ninth) came against a team in the top 13 in the majors in team OPS. That will change tonight as the Chicago Cubs currently rank fourth.
On the flip side we have the Cubs, who are 62-41 but down nearly -10 units of profit. That's what happens when your average price tag is -180. The good news for Cubs' backers is even at home, spot starter Brian Matusz won't command that type of price. As described above, Matusz was picked up by the Cubs via Baltimore and Atlanta, and has thrown at every level of organizational baseball this year including rookie league, but has only 33+ innings to show for it. He's also yet to start a game at the MLB level since 2012. However, he put together three straight years of solid work (3.32 ERA, 151.2 IP since 2013) out of the bullpen for Baltimore and showed well in three minor league starts for the Cubs (12.2 IP, 3 ERs, 17 Ks). There are some obvious unknowns with Matusz but keep in mind, Kyle Hendricks was a very rich -165 prior to the pitching change announcement. Bettors can currently get the Cubs for around -125, which isn't a bad price given the game's locale and suspect opposing starter.
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago Cubs, -125.
ESPN INSIDER
Viewers of ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball get a treat tonight for a number of reasons. To start, new blood. Seattle makes its first appearance on the Sunday night showcase in years, and by virtue of a pairing with the Chicago Cubs, tonight's broadcast features the two teams in each league that have gone the longest without making the World Series. Further, if you're going to tune in to watch the Mariners, you can't do better than seeing Hall-of-Fame candidateFelix Hernandez, who has precious few performances in the national spotlight, take to the mound. Even the home team's fans can delight in tonight's matchup; it's Hernandez' first start in Wrigley Field and only his second ever versus the Cubs, having taken a no-decision in a start six seasons ago.
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Taking a page from NBA roster-usage playbooks, the Cubs have opted to temporarily employ a six-man rotation, which will give not only tonight's originally scheduled starter, Kyle Hendricks, an extra day of rest, but the entire rotation as well. Gregg Popovich approves. Hoping to capture a little more magic from the castoffs of the Baltimore Orioles' wicked 2010-2012 rotation (see font, sarcasm), the Cubs have tabbed last month's free-agent signing Brian Matusz to make his first start for a team other than the Orioles after a successful nine-plus inning stint in triple-A Iowa. He'll recognize former teammate Jake Arrieta in the clubhouse, though the Cubs aren't looking for another Cy Young Award from this Orioles cast-off -- a quality start during the dog days of summer will be more than sufficient.
As MLB approaches the start of its last third of the season this week, each game takes on importance for those with October aspirations. After briefly relinquishing the distinction of having the best record in baseball to a couple of other teams near the midway point, the Cubs have once again assumed that mantle. Seattle, on the other hand, has more modest goals, as the Mariners need to put together a strong finish to the season if they are to make up enough ground to overcome meaningful deficits in the division (third place, seven games back of Texas) or the AL Wild Card Race (4.5 games behind Boston for the last spot.)
It's been a rough two weeks for the Chalk handicapping team as they've had post-All-Star struggles comparable to the San Francisco Giants. Joe Peta (8-5, +4.73 units on the season) looks to break his two-game skid with a call on the side while Andrew Lange, who returned with an unsuccessful totals play last week, also chooses a side.
Editor's Note: Lines are subject to change based on time and location, and these picks were made based on prices at the time of filing. Be aware of differences in available odds and consider the included analysis relative to the stated lines within the article when placing bets.
Over/under: 8 (over -120, under +100)
PickCenter Intel
Joe Peta: To paraphrase, Indiana Jones, "why did it have to be Matusz?"
Brian Matusz stands as the very definition of a failed starter who later found success in the bullpen. Exclusively a starter for the first half of his career, Matusz posted a ghastly, sub-replacement 5.51 ERA in 68 starts before moving to the bullpen during the 2012 season where he subsequently posted a 3.16 ERA in 165 innings as a reliever.
Eventually though, even the Orioles gave up on their once highly-regarded prospect (fourth-overall pick in the 2008 draft) and included him as ballast in a disguised, draft pick trade with the Braves this May; Atlanta immediately cut Matusz, which is how the Cubs ended up signing him as a free agent. The problem with backing him tonight is that he still profiles as a terrible starter and he's being asked to do so tonight as a greater than 60% implied favorite.
If you're reading a betting matchup piece on ESPN Chalk, you're probably more than a casual fan of baseball, but a casual fan would almost certainly be shocked at seeing Felix Hernandez as such a big underdog, to the point that you might even suspect the odds above were erroneously reversed. The truth, though, is that despite a very King Felix-like ERA of 2.86 through his first ten starts in 2016, Fernandez' underlying peripherals, dating back to last year, suggest a pitcher not just in decline, but perhaps in steep decline. Any hope that the deteriorating performance could be blamed on an injury that simply needed some time on the disabled list has been dashed by his last two starts following a nearly two-month stint on the DL, as Hernandez has allowed nine earned runs in just over 13 innings of work this month, striking out just five of the 59 batters he's faced.
His new status as an "auto-fade candidate" among baseball's data-driven bettors has to some degree been recognized by oddsmakers as well, judging by the underdog odds he's been assigned tonight. Again, not to put too fine a point on it, the former Cy Young Award winner (and two-time runner-up) is matched against a pitcher with a lifetime ERA of 5.51 as a starter. Still, I have to use the same logic I used (unsuccessfully) last week. Matusz is backed by an outstanding defense and Maddon will certainly have a quick hook when it comes to getting him out of the game. In all other ways, the Cubs are vastly superior to the Mariners. I don't love this pick (in contrast to last week's loss, which I felt very strongly about) but with Hernandez showing almost no ability to get swing and miss strikes against a team with the highest walk rate in baseball, the value is still on the Cubs.
But still, why'd it have to be Brian Matusz?
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago Cubs, -125.
Andrew Lange: Felix Hernandez has had an amazing career, but we're currently witnessing the wear and tear of 10 straight seasons of averaging 200+ innings. His two starts since returning from the DL were alarming, as he allowed nine runs and struck out only five batters (one was a pitcher) over 12 2/3 innings. On the season, Hernandez's ERA sits at a respectable 3.45, but his FIP is over a full run higher (4.54) and that doesn't even include the incredibly favorable schedule he's faced. Of his 12 starts, only one (Texas, ranked ninth) came against a team in the top 13 in the majors in team OPS. That will change tonight as the Chicago Cubs currently rank fourth.
On the flip side we have the Cubs, who are 62-41 but down nearly -10 units of profit. That's what happens when your average price tag is -180. The good news for Cubs' backers is even at home, spot starter Brian Matusz won't command that type of price. As described above, Matusz was picked up by the Cubs via Baltimore and Atlanta, and has thrown at every level of organizational baseball this year including rookie league, but has only 33+ innings to show for it. He's also yet to start a game at the MLB level since 2012. However, he put together three straight years of solid work (3.32 ERA, 151.2 IP since 2013) out of the bullpen for Baltimore and showed well in three minor league starts for the Cubs (12.2 IP, 3 ERs, 17 Ks). There are some obvious unknowns with Matusz but keep in mind, Kyle Hendricks was a very rich -165 prior to the pitching change announcement. Bettors can currently get the Cubs for around -125, which isn't a bad price given the game's locale and suspect opposing starter.
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago Cubs, -125.
