Picking the winners and the losers of the 2016 MLB trade deadline as dust settles

What you need to know about prospects dealt at MLB trade deadline from an expert


Lots of trades were made, here's who came out ahead


You might remember Christopher Crawford from our draft-day coverage and more recently from him helping to explain what the Yankees got in return for Aroldis Chapman and all the prospects they got at the deadline. He writes about prospects and draftees for Baseball Prospectus and ESPN.


If you had to rank the top five prospects traded, who would they be and how would you rank them?


I would go 1) Lewis Brinson 2) Luis Ortiz 3) Grant Holmes 4) Phil Bickford and 5) Lucius Fox

How do you think the Brewers managed in their trades?


As you can probably tell from my rankings, I think they did very well. Brinson has really struggled in 2016, but his upside competes with any outfielder, and every tool but the hit has a chance to be plus. Ortiz is a burly right-hander who has the size you see from durable right-handers, and he has two plus pitches in his fastball/slider and a solid-average one in the change. Bickford is a bit more controversial, but when you see him on his best day, he's 70-fastball, 55-slider, 50-change, and throwing strikes with all three pitches. There's a chance he's a reliever, but it's worth the risk. Add in Andrew Susac who I believe has a chance to be a very good starting catcher, and I think you have had a pretty good day.


Did the Marlins overpay for Andrew Cashner?


I would say no, but many in the industry would disagree. Josh Naylor can hit, but I have concerns about the body type, and he's certainly limited to first base, which limits the value significantly. If you counted Luis Castillo as part of the trade I would agree, but since he's being sent back as restitution for the Colin Rea injury, you can't count him as part of the trade. Cashner isn't a special starter, but I don't think Naylor is a special prospect, so it's fair value in the end.


What did the Rays get in return for Matt Moore?


I think the Rays did really well in this deal. Lucius Fox is one of the most intriguing athletes to sign in last year's IFA class; he's a double-plus runner, and every tool but power has a chance to be above-average. There's a long way to go, but the upside is huge. Before Michael Santos' injury, he was really impressive, showing a plus fastball and three average secondary offerings, the best of which being a slider that would flash plus. Add in Matt Duffy, and I think Tampa Bay did very well with this deal.

How excited should Reds fans be about the return on Jay Bruce?


Not terribly, but they could have done a lot worse. Dilson Herrera is an athletic second baseman how has shown the ability to hit for average with solid-average power, and he can run a little bit too. More than likely, you're looking at a guy who is a super-utility player that can play four or five positions off the bench. The "best" prospect in this deal is Max Wotell; a left-hander the Mets took in the third round last year who has shown an above-average fastball and improving secondaries. There's still projection left, so he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter at some point, with quite a bit of volatility because, well, he's a young pitcher.


Should Pirates fans fret about losing Harold Ramirez and Reese McGuire?


I would say it's more about the message sent than losing the prospects. That's not to say Ramirez and McGuire aren't good. Ramirez has a chance for a plus hit tool and can run a little bit, but he can't field and he can't throw, and the power is below-average, which puts a ton of pressure on the hit tool maximizing. McGuire is one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, and while he's never going to hit much, he doesn't have to because of the arm strength and improving receiving skills. These aren't elite prospects, but they are quality pieces to an organization, and the fact that the Pirates were willing to -- for lack of a better term -- sell them is pretty disappointing.
Which traded prospect do you like more than most -- which less than most?
The guy I'm higher on than some I've spoken with is Guadalupe Lopez, the right-hander the Astros got for Scott Feldman. He's wafer-thin and only throwing in the high-80s, but there's a ton of projection in his right arm, and he has excellent control on top of a plus change. I'd probably say I'm lower than the industry on Bickford still; consistency just hasn't been his friend at all, and anytime you hear about arms fluctuating their secondary offerings AND the velocity, I think that's cause for concern. A nice piece to get for a reliever, but there's a chance he's a reliever in the long run as well.

How the Rangers set themselves up to win the MLB trade deadline and probably more


The moves the Rangers made this year were set up by moves over the last few years


In the most eventful trade deadline day in franchise history, the Texas Rangers pulled off two major trades, and cemented themselves as one of the favorites to win the World Series. Still, the most emblematic moment of the day for the ballclub didn't happen in their board room, or even during a Rangers game. It happened at Wrigley Field.
Starting for the Cubs against the Marlins, right-hander Kyle Hendricks went the distance, tossing his second career shutout. That sparkling outing lowered Hendricks' ERA to 2.22, the third-lowest mark in the majors, behind only three-time World Series winner Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw, the best pitcher on the planet. What made the moment so quintessentially Rangers was Hendricks' background. An eighth-round pick in the 2011 draft by Texas, Hendricks got flipped a year later to the Cubs in a trade for veteran Ryan Dempster.


The move, of course, flopped. Dempster never did much for Texas, while Hendricks has grown into a top starter for the best team in the National League. But the biggest takeaway here isn't that general manager Jon Daniels and his talented staff made a trade that failed; as we will see, they've made several terrible moves over the past few years, ones that might torpedo lesser franchises. Instead, the real lesson here is this: The Rangers have become such a prolific talent-producing machine, they can make multiple ugly trades, still have more than enough young talent to fill the major league roster, then have even more left to pull blockbuster, potentially league-altering deadline deals, like the ones they made on Monday.


The highlight deal of the day saw the Rangers snag All-Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy and hard-throwing closer Jeremy Jeffress. Lucroy is in the middle of an excellent season, batting .299/.359/.482, while throwing out 40% of would-be basestealers. Add in plus pitch-framing skills and good subjective marks for less quantifiable defensive tasks, and Texas just landed one of the best all-around catchers in the game, someone who's a huge upgrade over the so-so defenders who combined to hit just .233/.287/.422 this year. In Jeffress, the Rangers land a third right-hander (to go with closer Sam Dyson and middle man Matt Bush) who fires fastballs into the high-90s. As with Dyson, Jeffress's heat generates relatively modest strikeout totals (18.4 percent K rate this year), but also a ton of groundballs (57.7 percent groundball rate).


Meanwhile, Texas also acquired Carlos Beltran from the Yankees. Enjoying his best season in five years, Beltran's batting .304/.344/.546, ranking among the AL leaders in homers and slugging average. At age 39, Beltran's one of the worst defensive outfielders in the game, which is no problem for the Rangers, who'll use him to DH with Prince Fielder out for the season. What made those trades even more fascinating is the list of players Texas gave up... and didn't give up. For weeks, we'd heard that the Rangers wanted to aggressively upgrade their big league roster, but also wanted to do so without giving up impressive young position players Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar, or Joey Gallo. Despite teams' repeated calls to land one or more members of that trio, Texas held firm, and got their big deals done anyway.


They did so because of the seemingly bottomless pool of young talent that the team has built over the past few years. To land Lucroy and Jeffress, the Rangers gave up Lewis Brinson, the Rangers' first-round pick four years ago who's an ace outfield defender with a chance to hit for big power, rated the no. 16 prospect in the game or better by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com heading into this season. Also going to Milwaukee in the trade: right-hander Luis Ortiz, a player who recently made ESPN.com writer Keith Law's midseason top-50 prospects list. For two-plus months of Beltran (plus potential playoff at-bats), Texas gave up Dillon Tate, a rangy right-handed starter whose velocity has slipped this year, but also the number-four overall pick in the draft just a year ago. Those moves follow the recent acquisition of Lucas Harrell for Travis Demeritte, yet another first-round pick who just gained increased national attention playing in the Futures Game.


All three of those trades happened within a week and a half of each other, costing Texas three former first-round picks in all. But we can trace the story of the Rangers' prospect overload back much further than that.


As Rangers writer and Newberg Report proprietor Jamey Newberg explained, the deal that started the whole cycle happened before the 2010 deadline, when Texas traded four young players to land lefty ace Cliff Lee. The signature player in that trade was Justin Smoak, the sweet-swinging first baseman who at the time was considered roughly the equivalent to what Gallo is now -- a top-flight prospect with major offensive upside. Lee was a major contributor to that 2010 club, and a driving force in their playoff run.


But what's more amazing are the many trades that flopped after that one. In 2012, they sacrificed Hendricks to get Dempster. In 2013, they have up future successful big league relief pitchers Justin Grimm and Carl Edwards for a couple months of mediocre Matt Garza. A few months after the Garza deal, they slipped Ian Kinsler to Detroit for Prince Fielder, a trade that now looks impossibly awful, with Kinsler dominating for the Tigers and Fielder looking like he might be on his last legs, while still being owed tens of millions of dollars. Those deals followed the stinker July 30, 2011 trade with the Orioles, which saw Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter flipped to Baltimore for Koji Uehara.


All those trades failed, and multiple other players have failed to live up to expectations, during the Rangers' current run of near-perennial playoff contention. Yet time and time again, new players emerge and produce. Last year, it was an in-season bullpen turnaround, one that saw the lightly regarded Dyson emerge as a key set-up man, complementing waiver pickup Shawn Tolleson's evolution into the team's closer. This year, it was Profar stepping up to play multiple positions; the rookie Mazara taking over in right due to injuries; and right-hander A.J. Griffin acquired for nothing over the winter, evolving into a decent back-of-the-rotation starter.


Of course, many of the Rangers' prospects never make it to the big club in Arlington, instead getting sent to other teams to consummate big trades. Such was the case both in the recent spate of three deals, and of course last summer's blockbuster move for impact left-handers Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman. Even more striking is how deep you can dive into the Rangers system to find prospects other teams want. Outfielder Nick Williams was considered a second-tier prospect by Texas standards, righty Jared Eickhoff a half-notch below that, yet the Hamels-Diekman deal doesn't happen without them. Meanwhile, Hendricks, Edwards, and now-Nationals right-hander Tanner Roark were all ostensibly third-tier prospect options in the Rangers system who've found success with other clubs.


Newberg listed off some of the behind-the-scenes talent evaluators and coaches who helped make that cavalcade of talent thrive. Credit goes to everyone from A.J. Preller (former head of pro and international scouting, and assistant GM) to Josh Boyd (head of pro scouting); Scott Servais (former farm director) to Mike Daily (current farm director); Danny Clark (minor league pitching coordinator) to Josue Perez (minor league hitting coordinator), and of course Daniels, assistant GM Thad Levine, and many more. The most telling number uttered by a GM today might have been Daniels citing 32 at Monday's post-deadline press conference. As in, other teams talking to Texas asked for 32 different Rangers prospects over the few weeks leading into the deadline.


The Rangers still have some question marks on the roster, starting with a rotation that features a combination of injury risks and performance risks, from staff ace Yu Darvish all the way down to the fifth starter Harrell. But Texas also owns the best record in the American League, despite suffering through a lousy 11-15 showing in July. More importantly for the long haul, they still wield one of the top collections of young talent in the game, even after shipping out three recent first-round picks this year, and a bevy of other prospects before that.


Texas has a real shot to win the World Series this year, something that's never happened in franchise history. As long as the talent machine keeps cranking, a bunch more chances could follow...even if the Rangers end up failing this time around.

Report: Yankees could release A-Rod following Carlos Beltran trade


Cutting A-Rod could be the next phase of the team's youth movement


Prior to Monday's trade deadline, we saw the Yankees do something they haven't done in more than a quarter-century: they sold. Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Carlos Beltran, and Ivan Nova were all traded to contenders for prospects.


As part of their sudden youth movement, the Yankees may also release Alex Rodriguez at some point in the second half, reports Peter Botte of the New York Daily News. From Botte:
While the more likely scenario still seems to be parting ways with A-Rod over the winter, a source familiar with the situation told the Daily News on Monday that there's a chance releasing the slumping DH "could happen" before the end of this season as part of the team's ongoing overhaul.


We've heard this before, though now the Beltran trade has changed the team's dynamic. The Yankees have already started the process of moving their veterans to make way for young players. A-Rod would be the next one to go, logically.


GM Brian Cashman made an appearance in the broadcast booth during the YES Network broadcast of Monday night's game, during which he mentioned top catching prospect Gary Sanchez could be called up as soon as Wednesday. That may have been an indication A-Rod's days are numbers for a few reasons:


Brian McCann, the starting catcher, isn't going anywhere.


Austin Romine has had a fine season as the backup catcher.


The Yankees are playing interleague games in NL parks Monday and Tuesday, then return home Wednesday
.
The Yankees have no reason to make a change behind the plate, and there's no need for a DH while in an interleague park, so calling up Sanchez right now makes no sense. He'll just sit on the bench. Come Wednesday, that could change. Releasing A-Rod frees up DH at-bats for Sanchez.


Where there's smoke, there's fire, and the fact there is so much talk about Rodriguez being released right now suggests it just might happen. He is only four homers away from 700 and perhaps the team wants to cash in on the milestone chase first. If not, A-Rod's days with the Yankees may be numbered.

An MLB prospect expert breaks down the Yankees' trade deadline haul for us all

The Yankees rebuilt their farm system over the past week-plus


You might remember Christopher Crawford from our draft-day coverage and more recently from him helping to explain what the Yankees got in return for Aroldis Chapman. If not, he writes about prospects and draftees for Baseball Prospectus and ESPN. On Monday, he took time to answer questions we had about the Yankees' rebuilt farm system.


What did you think about the Yankees' various July trades?


I think the Yankees did very well. This was already a system on the rise, but these moves they've made over the past week have done a lot to address not only the quality in the system but the quantity. Some might accuse them of prospect hoarding, but I'd say it's just a case of a team realizing the current roster isn't up to par and it's time to address the players who can remedy those ails in the short and long term.

Where would you have ranked the Yankees' farm system two weeks ago -- and where do you rank it now?


Before the trades, I would say they were a top-12 system, maybe a top-10 if you're feeling generous. Now, it's assuredly one of the top-five systems in baseball, and if one was forced to come out with a ranking right now, I'd put them in the top-three. That's a heck of an improvement.

Where would you rank the various additions within the system?


I'd say that Gleyber Torres is the new no. 1 prospect; you just don't see shortstops with this well-rounded of a game very often. Clint Frazier would be at no. 3 for me, right behind Aaron Judge. Justus Sheffield would sneak into the middle of the top 10, and Billy McKinney and Dillon Tate will both be competing for back-end placements as well.


The Mike Trout comparisons are crazy, but how good can Frazier be?


He can be pretty darn good. The bat speed is enormous; and it gives him the ability to not just hit for average but to generate enough speed to hit for power despite his smallish frame. He's also seen a significant improvement in his pitch-recognition abilities and is more willing to get on via walk. My only concern is defensively. He's a quality runner, but he's not a center fielder long-term, and his arm is only average. That means left field is a likely landing spot, which put a lot of pressure on the hit tool. He should be up for the task, though.


What's the elevator pitch on Justus Sheffield?


Sheffield is the brother of Dodgers first-round pick Jordan Sheffield, but you wouldn't guess they were related with how different they are pitching wise. While Jordan is a right-hander with an electric fastball and wipeout slider, Justus is more of a feel guy; he shows an above-average fastball, but the best pitch is a curveball that flashes plus. The change also flashes in that range, although it's mostly solid-average to slightly-above. He can throw strikes with all three pitches, and that makes him a high-floor, medium-high ceiling prospect.


And how about Dillon Tate?


Tate was the best pitching prospect in college baseball last year, showing a plus-plus fastball and a slider that would show that kind of ability in glimpses as well. Unfortunately, he hasn't shown anywhere near that stuff as a professional; the fastball has been clocked in the high 80s, and the slider isn't generating the same kind of tilt it did in college. It could be injuries or fatigue (he was mostly a reliever in college), but this is very much a lottery ticket at this point. A high paying one, but a lottery ticket nonetheless.


Biggest takeaway from the Yankees' trades?


I'd say the biggest takeaway is that the Yankees are committed to building something similar to what they built in the mid-'90s. I'm not comparing what they have now to that group, but let's remember that when the Yankees were a dynasty, it was with homegrown talent with the occasional big name to address depth. It may be frustrating to some fans who want them to spend big money on every player, but in the long run, the Yankees are setting themselves up to be a very good team, and we all know they won't be afraid to spend big when the big name free agent that fits becomes available.

MLB Trade Deadline: How Lucroy, Beltran fit with the new and improved Rangers


With their deadline dealings, the Rangers addressed two holes in the lineup


Here's the lineup that Rangers manager Jeff Banister trotted out for Sunday's game against the Royals (an eventual win for Texas) ...


7/31 @Rangers lineup vs KC


DeShields CF


Mazara RF


Profar SS


Beltre DH


Odor 2B


Moreland 1B


Rua LF


Chirinos C


Alberto 3B


Harrell P


That's not bad, necessarily, but it could be improved upon. Speaking of improved upon, Rangers GM Jon Daniels was quite busy on Monday in advance of the trade deadline. The team is off Monday, but here's what Banister's Tuesday lineup against the Orioles might look like ...


Jurickson Profar, LF


Ian Desmond, CF


Carlos Beltran, DH


Adrian Beltre, 3B


Rougned Odor, 2B


Jonathan Lucroy, C


Mitch Moreland, 1B


Elvis Andrus, SS


Nomar Mazara, RF


Something like that. In any event, we'll agree that this one looks substantially better. Driving that improvement are, of course, Beltran and Lucroy, who are of course the the most notable of those aforementioned deadline additions. At present, the Rangers are tied for fourth in the AL in runs scored, which is obviously a respectable ranking. However, when it comes to Weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+), an advanced metric that measures all phases of production at the plate and adjusts them for ballpark and league environments, the Rangers rank just 10th in the AL. The problem is that wRC+ is better at predicting future runs scored numbers than runs scored itself is. In other words, the Rangers needed improvement in the lineup. Beltran in particular addresses a glaring weakness.


Texas designated hitters this season have combined to bat a paltry.223/.305/.349, which when compared to average DH line of .248/.323/442 is revealed to be unacceptable (and bear in mind that those Texas DH numbers are dragging down the average). Chiefly, this has been the fault of Prince Fielder, who struggled badly before being slated for season-ending neck surgery.


While anything can happen in the short run, Beltran will almost certainly improve upon those numbers by a wide margin. This season, he's batting .304/.344/.546 with 22 homers. Moving forward, the ZiPS projection system available at FanGraphs tabs Beltran for a line of .272/.325/.475. There's some regression baked in for the 39-year-old future Hall of Famer (yes, I'm calling him a future Hall of Famer because I choose to believe our universe is occasionally a just one), but even if that's the case he's going to comfortably outstrip what the Rangers are accustomed to from their designated hitters.


On the catching front, Lucroy is of course a skilled pitch-framer behind the plate, and at the plate he's among the best at his position. This season, he's batting .299/.359/.482, and over the last half-decade he's authored an OPS+ of 120. That's excellent production, especially by catcher standards. Speaking of catcher standards, thus far in 2016 Texas backstops have combined to hit .233/.287/.422. Obviously, Lucroy is a good bet to exceed those numbers by a wide margin. Also, recent history suggests there's not much to worry about when it comes to giving your pitching staff a new catcher during the middle of the season.


Also, the Yankees are paying half of Beltran's remaining salary, so that means the Rangers are paying out just $4 million or so to add Beltran and Lucroy to the lineup. That's a very modest outlay given the likely gains involved.


More generally, the Rangers' run differential and outcomes at the plate appearance level suggest they've over-performed to date. Yes, their semi-comfortable lead in the AL West makes them favorites to reach the postseason, but credit to the front office for realizing that improvements were warranted. Improvements are exactly what they got on Monday.

2016 MLB Trade Deadline: Mets get an imperfect upgrade in Jay Bruce


Bruce leads the NL in RBI, but he's another corner outfielder on a team that already has three of them


Prior to Monday's trade deadline, baseball worst hitting team with runners in scoring position acquired the NL leader in RBI. It's a perfect fit, and yet, it really isn't.
The Mets acquired Jay Bruce from the Reds for two prospects in an effort to boost their offense, which came into Monday averaging only 3.66 runs per game, third worst in MLB. They're doing that despite hitting 133 homers, ninth most in baseball. This is the problem:


AVG with RISP: .206 (30th in MLB)


OBP with RISP: .282 (30th in MLB)


SLG with RISP: .324 (30th in MLB)


OPS with RISP: .606 (30th in MLB)


The Mets are by far the worst hitting team with RISP this season. No other team is particularly close, really. That inability to cash in runners from second and/or third is the main reason the club is on the outside of the postseason picture looking in.
Bruce, it would seem, is a perfect solution to that RISP problem. He leads the NL with 80 RBI and is hitting .360/.406/.709 with RISP, so this man knows how to drive in runs. The Mets need someone just like Jay Bruce, so they went out and got the real Jay Bruce.


The concern is that aside from the RISP issue, Bruce does not really fit the Mets' roster. Most notably, he's yet another corner outfielder on a club with three corner outfielders on the roster (Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes). That's a bit of a logjam.


For now the plan to seems to be playing Granderson and Conforto in center with Cespedes in left and Bruce in right. Granderson was a center fielder earlier in his career but his defense has slipped, so he's below-average there now. Conforto? He's a average at best left fielder, which doesn't exactly scream "put me in center!"


These problems have a way of working themselves out. The Mets haven't been the healthiest team -- Cespedes is nursing a quad injury at the moment -- and before you know it those four corner outfielders could turn into two. Bruce has some first base experience and that's another option.


The Mets are so desperate for offense that they live with the defensive hit they take by adding Bruce. That much is clear. They weren't go anywhere without another bat, and Bruce was arguably the best available hitter, so they made the deal. The robbed Peter (the defense) to pay Paul (the offense) simply because there was no better way to improve their biggest weakness.