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AFL Betting Recap - Week 18
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 2-1 straight up in Week 18
-- Underdogs went 2-0-1 ATS in Week 18
-- Home teams posted a 2-1 SU record in Week 18
-- Home/road teams posted a 1-1-1 ATS record in Week 18
-- The 'Over/under' went 1-1-1 in Week 18

Team Betting Notes

-- Philadelphia (13-3) finished the season strong with a fourth consecutive victory at Orlando (12-4) in a possible playoff preview, winning 67-59. It was the third straight 'over' for the Soul, and the over is 8-2 in their final 10 games of the regular season.

-- The 'over' snapped a 7-0 'under' run for the Predators. The last time the 'over' hit in a game for Orlando was May 21, also an eight-point loss against Philadelphia.

-- Tampa Bay (2-14) wrapped up its franchise-worst regular season with another road loss, finishing 0-8 SU away from home. Bettors will be sad to see them go, as they finished 3-0 ATS in the final three games and the 'under' went 5-1 in their final six outings and finished 11-5 on the season.

-- The Storm will head to Allentown, Penn. next Sunday at 6pm ET to battle the Soul in the first round of the AFL playoffs. Philly was 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS in two meetings with Tampa Bay, covering May 9 in their only home game against the Storm.

-- Jacksonville (7-9) finished the regular season with two wins in the final two games while the 'under' also hit. They will face Orlando on the road at 7pm ET next Saturday. The Sharks lost both of their meetings with the Predators at home, going 0-2 ATS. However, the Sharks won in Orlando May 27 while covering in a 59-56 win.

-- L.A. Kiss (7-9) was tripped up 48-46 at Portland (3-13). The Kiss had won their first two meetings against the Steel by a combined 120-71 score. The Steel will look to carry the momentum into Arizona (13-3).

-- The Rattlers host the Steel Saturday at 10pm ET. Arizona was 3-0 SU/2-0-1 ATS in three regular season meetings against Portland, winning by an average margin of 42.0 points per game.

-- The Kiss will host at Cleveland (7-9) Sunday at 6pm ET. Los Angeles won both regular season meetings, but only by a total of seven points. The Gladiators head into the postseason on an 0-3 SU/ATS skid.

ROAD TO ARENABOWL XXIX BEGINS THIS WEEKEND
Top Seeds Arizona, Philadelphia, Orlando, Los Angeles Host First Round Games

The Road to ArenaBowl XXIX has hit the start of the postseason. The American Conference Champion Philadelphia Soul and National Conference Champion Arizona Rattlers have each captured their respective regular season crowns and now look to finish the postseason tournament with another crown – the ArenaBowl XXIX title.

To start the American Conference playoffs, the No. 3 seeded Jacksonville Sharks (7-9) will head cross-state to play the No. 2 seeded Orlando Predators (12-4) at Amway Center this Saturday, August 6 at 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network. Orlando’s year-end award and All-Arena candidate WR Brandon Thompkins (135 receptions, 3,530 all-purpose yards and 45 total TDs) and QB Bernard Morris (65.6 comp. %, 1,249 passing yards, 27 passing TDs and 8 rushing TDs) lead the Predators offense. Jacksonville’s year-end award and All-Arena candidates WR Joe Hills (AFL leader with 161 receptions for 2,020 yards and 58 TDs), QB Tommy Grady (68.1 comp. %, 4,495 passing yards and 94 TDs) and DB Greg Reid (101.5 total tackles, 8 INTs and 35 passes defended) lead the Sharks’ attack.

To start the National Conference playoffs, the No. 4 seeded Portland Steel (3-13) head South to the desert to battle the No. 1 seeded Arizona Rattlers (13-3) at Talking Stick Resort Arena on Saturday, August 6 at 10 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network. Portland All-Arena candidate DB Sergio Gilliam (55.0 total tackles and 5 INTs) hopes to spark the defense, while All-Arena candidate WR Tom Gilson (132 receptions for 1,303 yards and 14 TDs) partners with former Rookie of the Year WR Jared Perry (71 catches for 870 yards and 14 TDs) to lead the offense. Year-end award and All-Arena candidate QB Nick Davila (69.6 comp. %, 4,198 yards and an AFL best 110 TDs) with the help of All-Arena candidates WR Rod Windsor (145 catches for 1,667 yards and 50 total TDs) and WR Maurice Purify (84 receptions for 1,017 yards and 30 TDs) have the AFL’s No. 1 offense (66.8 points per game) ready to strike.

Elsewhere, All-Arena candidate WR T.T. Toliver (114 catches for 1,578 yards and 25 TDs) and the No. 4 seeded Tampa Bay Storm (2-14) will battle QB Dan Raudabaugh (69.3 comp. %, 4,303 passing yards and 101 passing TDs) and the No. 1 seeded Philadelphia Soul (13-3) at the PPL Center in Allentown, PA on Sunday, August 7 at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN2. Year-end award and All-Arena candidates DL Jake Metz (AFL leader with 8.0 sacks, 29.5 total tackles and two forced fumbles) and DB Tracy Belton (AFL leader with 9 INTs, 90.0 total tackles and 29 passes defended) lead the Soul defense. Storm QB Jason Boltus (55.2 comp. %, 2,652 yards and 42 TDs) returns under center for Tampa Bay.

The final remaining game of the first round has the No. 3 seeded Cleveland Gladiators (7-9) traveling to Valley View Casino Arena in San Diego, CA to play the No. 2 seeded Los Angeles KISS (7-9) on Sunday, August 7 at 6 p.m. ET on WatchESPN. Cleveland QB Arvell Nelson (59.5 comp. %, 3,425 yards and 70 TDs) leads the Gladiators, while All-Arena candidate WR Donovan Morgan (113 receptions for 1,462 yards and 41 TDs) leads the KISS.

FIRST ROUND MATCHUPS

AMERICAN CONFERENCE
NO. 3 JACKSONVILLE SHARK (7-9) AT NO. 2 Orlando Predators (12-4)
Saturday, August 6 at 7 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
Play-by-play: Brent Stover; Color: Sherdrick Bonner; Sideline: Tina Cervasio

JACKSONVILLE ORLANDO
REG. SEASON SERIES LEADER Jacksonville leads 11-9
STREAKS W2 L2
LAST WEEK W 54-35 vs. Storm L 67-59 vs. Soul
LAST REG SEASON MEETING 6/18/16 Predators 4 at Sharks 34
TOTAL OFFENSE (RANK) 305.3 (1) 279.2 (4)
TOTAL DEFENSE (RANK) 278.8 (5) 285.5 (6)
POINTS SCORED (RANK) 52.2 (4) 55.7 (3)
POINTS ALLOWED (RANK) 48.4 (T-3) 48.8 (5)
TURNOVER MARGIN (RANK) +5 (T-4) +11 (2)

WHAT TO LOOK FOR: SHARKS: All-Arena and year-end award candidate WR Joe Hills looks to help keep the Sharks’ two-game winning streak going into the postseason… Hills has hauled in 161 receptions for 2,020 yards and 58 TDs in 2016… The five-year veteran has caught at least one TD pass in 68 consecutive regular season games played… In the previous three meetings against the Predators, Hills caught a total of 36 passes for 423 yards and 13 TDs… QB Tommy Grady continues to put up solid numbers completing 400-of-587 passes for 4,495 yards, 94 TDs and 7 INTs… In the last three games against Orlando, the Utah alum has gone 84-of-118 passes for 872 yards, 16 TDs, and one INT… FB Derrick Ross continues to dominate the AFL run game… Ross has carried the ball 108 times for 399 yards and 20 TDs in 15 games this season... Against the Predators this season, the three-year veteran has 20 rushing attempts for 55 yards and five TDs… The Sharks’ defense is led by DB Greg Reid and DB LaRoche Jackson… Reid, the 2015 Rookie of the Year, has tallied 101.5 total tackles, 27 pass break-ups, 35 passes defended, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, and eight INTs… Jackson has contributed 77.0 total tackles, 10 pass break-ups, 16 passes defended and six INTs… PREDATORS: WR Brandon Thompkins continues to prove why he is an All-Arena and year-end award candidate… The five-year veteran leads Orlando with 135 receptions for 1,631 yards and 38 TDs, while contributing 93 kick returns for 1,823 yards and five TDs… Thompkins leads the AFL in all-purpose yards with 3,530 this season and is now ranked No. 3 in AFL history in most all-purpose yards in a season… QB Bernard Morris is 3-2 as a starter in 2016 and has completed 107-of-174 passes for 1,249 yards, 27 TDs and three INTs along with 36 rushing attempts for 155 yards and eight TDs this season… Besides Thompkins, WR Greg Carr is another target for Morris… Carr has hauled in 83 catches for 1,146 yards and 28 TDs in 2016… Thompkins and Carr combined for 50 receptions for 561 yards and 12 TDs in their previous three meetings against the Sharks… The Orlando defense is led by DB Varmah Sonie and DB Paul Stephens… Sonie, an All-Arena candidate, has tallied on 98.0 total tackles, 16 pass break-ups, 22 passes defended, and one forced fumble…Stephens has contributed to the defense 75.0 total tackles, 12 pass break-ups, and 18 passes defended… Sonie and Stephens lead the team in INTs with six each.


NATIONAL CONFERENCE
NO. 4 PORTLAND STEEL (3-13) AT NO.1 Arizona Rattlers (13-3)
Saturday, August 6 at 10 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
Play-by-play: Dave Ryan; Color: Randy Gatewood; Sideline: Cassie McKinney

PORTLAND ARIZONA
REG. SEASON SERIES LEADER Arizona leads 9-0
STREAKS W1 W7
LAST WEEK W 48-46 vs. KISS Bye Week
LAST REG SEASON MEETING 6/11/16 Rattlers 76 vs. Steel 49
TOTAL OFFENSE (RANK) 252.1 (7) 289.4 (3)
TOTAL DEFENSE (RANK) 266.5 (3) 300.6 (7)
POINTS SCORED (RANK) 41.9 (7) 66.8 (1)
POINTS ALLOWED (RANK) 47.9 (2) 58.2 (7)
TURNOVER MARGIN (RANK) -22 (8) +17 (1)

WHAT TO LOOK FOR: STEEL:Former AFL Rookie of the Year Jared Perry had a breakout game against the Arizona Rattlers in Week 11. Making seven catches for 122 yards and one touchdown, the fifth-year WR from Missouri caught 71 passes for 870 yards and 14 TDs this season… WR Tom Gilson finished his 2016 campaign in the Top 10 of nearly every AFL receiving category, No. 4 in the AFL with 8.2 receptions per game, No. 4 with 132 receptions and No. 10 in receiving yards per game with 81.4. He led the team in every receiving category; receptions, receiving yards (1,303) and receiving TDs (14). All are career season highs… Last week against the LA KISS, he hauled in a season-high 10 passes for 74 yards and one TD. Since his return, he has caught 38 passes for 323 yards and eight TDs. In 35 career AFL games, he has hauled in 186 passes for 2,042 receiving yards (11.0 yards per reception) and 37 TDs… The stout Steel defensive front is really making it hard for opposing QBs this season, as they have wrangled opposing QBs for a total of 9.0 sacks in the last 11 weeks. Dexter Davis Jr. (2.0), Brandon Sesay (3.0), Robert Hayes (5.0), Bryson Kelly (1.0), KC Obi (0.5) and Reggie Wilson (0.5) have all been able to get to the QB. The Steel defense garnered 15.0 sacks total in 2016 and finished fourth in the AFL... RATTLERS: Head Coach Kevin Guy is one win away from pass*ing Mike Hohensee for 4th all-time in postseason victories. The two are currently tied with 12… Since 2012, the Arizona Rattlers are 47-4 at home (including playoffs). In that time, the Snake Pit has been the most difficult place to play for other teams, only able to win there just over 8 percent of the time. This season Arizona is 8-0 at home… The Rattlers have the best turnover margin in the league at +17… Year-end award and All-Arena candidate QB Nick Davila finished the regular season completing 353-of-507 passes for 4,198 yards and an AFL best 110 TDs and only 11 INTs… Since 2014, the Rattlers are 14-0 when DB Arkeith Brown caught an INT… The Rattlers defense have been locking up their opponent late in downs this season. They currently sit atop the AFL in opponent 3rd and 4th down conversions this season with an astounding 35.4% on 3rd and 37.3% on 4th... FB Mykel Benson finished the regular season tied for No. 1 in rushing TDs (20) and is No. 4 in rushing yards (199)… WR Rod Windsor is No. 2 in the AFL for receiving yards and No. 2 for receiving TDs this season. He has a total of 1,667 yards and 48 TDs for the Rattlers… The Rattlers have two players in the Top 5 for total sacks this season. DL Dimetrio Tyson is No. 2 in the league with 6.5 sacks.


AMERICAN CONFERENCE
NO. 4 Tampa Bay Storm (2-14) AT NO. 1 Philadelphia Soul (13-3)
Sunday, August 7 at 6 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Play-by-play: Joe Beninati; Color: Sherdrick Bonner

TAMPA BAY PHILADELPHIA
REG. SEASON SERIES LEADER Philadelphia leads 11-5
STREAKS L1 W4
LAST WEEK L 54-35 at Sharks W 67-59 at Predators
LAST REG SEASON MEETING 7/16/16 Soul 56 at Storm 51
TOTAL OFFENSE (RANK) 251.7 (8) 297.5 (2)
TOTAL DEFENSE (RANK) 246.4 (1) 271.4 (4)
POINTS SCORED (RANK) 35.5 (8) 61.4 (2)
POINTS ALLOWED (RANK) 54.2 (6) 48.4 (T-3)
TURNOVER MARGIN (RANK) -15 (&) +5 (T-4)

WHAT TO LOOK FOR: STORM:QB Jason Boltus finished his fifth season in the AFL with the Storm and ended the regular season by completing 228-of-413 passes (55.2 comp. %) for 2,652 yards and 42 TD passes and added five rushing TDs… WR T.T. Toliver enters his 13th season in the AFL and is the All-Time leader in receiving yards (15,760), receptions (1,203), and all-purpose yards (21,415)… WR Prechae Rodriguez enters his fifth season in the AFL... Rodriguez ranks 11th in Storm history with 2,009 career receiving yards… WR Kendrick Ings returned to the Storm after spending the first half of the season in the CFL... Ings has 10 career games with 100+ kickoff return yards and finished the season averaging 116.4 kickoff return yards per game… DL James McClinton made his first start for the Storm at Arizona (4/16/16). The third-year veteran leads the team with 3.0 sacks… DL Everett Dawkins led the Storm with 10.0 tackles for loss in 2015 and finished with 5.0 in 2016… WR Phillip Barnett finished with 70 receptions for 687 yards and 13 TDs… DB Cortez Stubbs led the Storm with 80.5 total tackles, while hauling in three INTs, 16 passes defended, three fumble recoveries and one forced fumble… SOUL: WR Chris Duvalt has been a great addition to both the Soul offense and special teams. So far this season he has recorded 31 receptions for 477 yards and 13 TDs. He leads the team in kick returns with 49 for 878 yards… DB Tracy Belton led the AFL with nine INTs for 129 yards and led the Soul with 90.0 total tackles, 20 pass break-ups and 29 passes defended… All-Arena candidate FB Jeramie Richardson finished No. 2 in the AFL in rushing attempts (103) and yards (320) and tied for No. 1 in TDs (20)... WR Darius Reynolds currently leads the Soul receivers with 112 catches for 1,447 yards, 38 receiving TDs and one rushing TD in 14 games. In his career, Reynolds has totaled 330 receptions for 4,492 yards and 102 TDs as well as 42 rushes for 43 yards and 15 TDs… Year-end award and All-Arena candidate QB Dan Raudabaugh finished No. 2 in the AFL by connecting on 339-of-489 passes for 4,303 yards, 101 TDs and only 13 INTs… Year-end award and All-Arena candidate DL Jake Metz led the AFL with 8.0 sacks, while adding 29.5 total tackles, 10.0 tackles for loss and 2 forced fumbles… All-Arena candidate and 2015 Kicker of the Year Tommy Frevert connected on 118-of-129 extra point attempts, while going 2-for-2 on his field goal attempts for a total of 129 points in 2016.


NATIONAL CONFERENCE
NO. 3 Cleveland Gladiators (7-9) AT NO. 2 LA KISS (7-9)
Sunday, August 7 at 6 p.m. ET (WatchESPN)

CLEVELAND LOS ANGELES
REG. SEASON SERIES LEADER Series tied 2-2
STREAKS L3 L2
LAST WEEK Bye Week L 48-46 at Steel
LAST REG SEASON MEETING 7/16/16 KISS 63 vs. Gladiators 61
TOTAL OFFENSE (RANK) 277.4 (5) 264.2 (6)
TOTAL DEFENSE (RANK) 306.4 (8) 264.4 (2)
POINTS SCORED (RANK) 51.6 (5) 46.0 (6)
POINTS ALLOWED (RANK) 58.4 (8) 46.8 (1)
TURNOVER MARGIN (RANK) -9 (6) +8 (3)

WHAT TO LOOK FOR: GLADIATORS:Since taking over as the starting quarterback on April 29th against the Orlando Predators, Nelson has completed 261 of 439 passes for 3,427 yards, 70 TDs, and 11 INTs, while also rushing for 212 yards and 11 more scores to end the regular season… WR Collin Taylor has continued his ascent in 2016 to being one of the elite wide receivers in the AFL. Taylor wraps up his regular season finishing with a team-high 110 receptions for 1,437 yards and 32 TDs... WR Quentin Sims missed the regular season finale on July 16th against Arizona, but with two full weeks to recover from a minor injury, Sims will be ready to go this Sunday against the Los Angeles secondary. For the season, Sims finished with 92 receptions for 1,112 yards and 27 TDs in his first year as a starter for the Gladiators. Sims torched the KISS secondary for 12 receptions, 198 yards, and five TDs in a road loss in their last meeting... In the regular season, DB Marvin Ross led the defense with 84.5 tackles, while DB Demarcus Robinson finished second on the team in tackles with 75.5 and DB Joe Powell third with 41. Ross finished the regular season with a team-high six interceptions. DL Randy Colling also led the defense in sacks with 4.5, while rookie Collin Keoshian pitched in with 2.5 sacks… KISS: QB Pete Thomas’ passing efficiency of 103.9 puts him No. 7 in the AFL. The rookie has thrown six TD passes in three of his six career starts and has averaged 5.5 passing TDs per start… QB Nathan Stanley connected on 185-of-315 passes for 2,057 yards and 41 TDs in 2016… WR/KR Justin Wilson is ranked No. 5 in the AFL with 18.4 yards per kick return. Additionally, he is No. 8 in the AFL with 111.7 all-purpose yards per game… WR Donovan “Captain” Morgan currently leads the AFL in TDs per reception (.362) and is third in the AFL with 42 receiving TDs. He is also No. 7 in receiving yards per game (91.4). During the regular season, Morgan scored two TDs in 15 out of 16 games… FB Rory Nixon is No. 5 in the AFL with 10 rushing TDs. He also boasts the No. 9 highest rushing yards per game (4.9)… DB Fredrick Obi’s 5.7 tackles per game ranks No. 5 in the AFL. He is also No. 9 in passed defended per game (1.44). Additionally, he is No. 5 in INT return yards (111)… LA KISS Defense leads the league in Red Zone defensive efficiency. Opponents have only scored on 76% of red zone possessions. The LA KISS also boast best scoring defense and the second best total defense in the AFL, allowing just 46.7 points and 264.4 yards per game, respectively.

Rattlers host Portland Steel in first round of Arena League playoffs
FOX Sports Arizona

The Arizona Rattlers are feeling pretty confident heading into the first round of the AFL playoffs.

They entered their final bye week of the season as the second seed, but thanks to a win by the Philadelphia Soul over the Orlando Predators, they came out with the top spot in the postseason.

As long as they continue to win, the Rattlers will secure home field advantage all the way through ArenaBowl XXIX.

The first hurdle for the Rattlers (13-3) will be the Portland Steel (3-13) at 7 p.m. Saturday at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Despite their losing record, the Steel have won two of their last three games and have had the last four games all come down to the final seconds.

The Steel picked up an important win over the LA KISS Monday night. After trailing by five with seven seconds left, quarterback Shane Austin threw a touchdown pass to former Rattlers wide receiver Jared Perry to take the win.

Saturday will be the fourth time the Rattlers and the Steel have met this season. Arizona has won all three previous matchups by an average of 47 points. Portland has made significant gains, however, since their most recent meeting in week 11.

Saturday's game will be televised on the CBS Sports Network.

If they win, the Rattlers will play in their sixth consecutive National Conference title game against the winner of the Los Angeles KISS-Cleveland Gladiators matchup.

StatFox Super Situations

ARENA | CLEVELAND at LA KISS
Play On - Any team (CLEVELAND) average passing team (6.7-7.7 PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (6.7-7.7 PY/Att.), after gaining 6.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game
68-33 since 1997. ( 67.3% | 31.7 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

ARENA | JACKSONVILLE at ORLANDO
Play On - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (JACKSONVILLE) off 1 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (46-52 PPG) against an average defensive team (46-52)- 8+ games
34-11 since 1997. ( 75.6% | 21.9 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

CFL Betting Recap - Week 6
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 6
-- Underdogs went 3-1 ATS in Week 6
-- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 6
-- Road teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 6
-- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 6

Team Betting Notes

-- Toronto (4-2) shocked Ottawa (3-2-1) by a 23-20 count in Canada's capital city despite entering as a 10-point underdog. The Argonauts cashed +425 on the moneyline, and as high as +500 in some shops. The RedBlacks are suddenly in a tailspin, losing two in a row to the Argos and Roughriders.

-- After going 3-1 ATS in the first four games for the RedBlacks, they're now 0-2 ATS over the past two. The 'under is 3-1-1 for Ottawa over their past five. The RedBlacks are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS over their past five tries against the Argos dating back to July 18, 2014, the last Ottawa win in this series.

-- Edmonton (2-3) met a similar fate as Ottawa, losing as a nine-point favorite at home against Winnipeg (2-4). The Eskimos have won just once in three tries at home, and they're 0-3 ATS at home and 0-4-1 ATS overall this season.

-- After their shocking win over the RedBlacks, it was back to struggling for Saskatchewan (1-4). And struggled they did, getting hammered by Montreal (2-3) in a 41-3 laugher. The Roughriders have given up 29 or more points in each of their five games, allowing 35.8 points per game (PPG).

-- Calgary (3-1-1) and the BC Lions (3-2) hooked up for the best game of the CFL season, outlasting the Lions 44-41 in overtime. QBs Jonathon Jennings and Bo Levi Mitchell each tossed three touchdowns, while Jennings also punched one in on the ground. The Stampeders failed to cover, though, falling to 3-1 ATS over the past four games.

-- The 'over' has been the play for the Stamps lately going 3-0-1 in their past four games after an under result in Week 1.

-- After allowing just 21 total points through their first two games, the Lions are allowing 32.0 points per game over their past three. The 'over' has hit in each of their past two games. BC also improved to 3-0 ATS on the road this season.

CFL Betting Notes - Week 7
By David Schwab

Week 6 Betting Recap

Week 6 of the 2016 CFL regular season got underway with a huge upset when Winnipeg beat Edmonton 30-23 straight-up as a 9 ½-point road underdog last Thursday night. Montreal made short work of Saskatchewan as a two-point home favorite in the first of two games on Friday night in a 41-3 romp.

The second half of Friday’s CFL double-header was one of the best games of the season so far with Calgary outlasting British Columbia 44-41 in overtime, but failing to cover against the spread as a five-point favorite at home. Sunday’s action closed things out with another road team pulling off an upset in Toronto’s big 23-20 win against Ottawa as a heavy 10-point underdog. Here is a look at the lineup for Week 7 in the CFL.

Saturday, Aug. 6

Edmonton Eskimos (2-3 SU, 0-4-1 ATS) vs. Ottawa RedBlacks (3-2-1 SU, 3-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Ottawa -4 ½
Total: 59

Game Overview

One more loss by Edmonton would match its loss total for the entire 2015 season. With Mike Reilly leading the CFL in passing yards (1,926) and tied for the lead in passing touchdowns (11) on an offense that is averaging 30 points a game, you would have to pin most of the Eskimos’ very shaky 2-3 start on a defense that has allowed an average of 37.3 points in those three losses.

Ottawa is another team that has been hard to figure out through its first six games. Last week’s loss to Toronto came against a quarterback that was making his first CFL start. The RedBlacks did have Henry Burris back as their starting quarterback for an injured Trevor Harris, but the rust was pretty obvious with a costly interception in final minute of play that sealed the upset for the Argonauts as heavy road underdogs. Harris is listed as questionable for Saturday’s contest.

Betting Trends

Ottawa drew first blood in this season’s series with a 45-37 overtime victory in Week 1 as a six-point road underdog. This snapped a SU five-game losing streak to Edmonton including last season’s Grey Cup Championship. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the six meetings

Preview Edmonton Eskimos at Ottawa Redblacks

Esks, REDBLACKS look to get back on track in Grey Cup rematch

OTTAWA — Two of the league’s hottest teams out of the gate, the Edmonton Eskimos and Ottawa REDBLACKS have fallen on hard times entering their Week 7 matchup in the nation’s capital.

The similarities in the two teams’ trajectories in 2016 are uncanny; both the REDBLACKS (3-0-1 start) and Eskimos (2-1 start) were quick off the blocks, but both have stumbled in the last few weeks as their previous strengths have been called into question.

Major keys to either team’s success last year — Ottawa quarterback Henry Burris’s MOP season and Edmonton’s consistent defence — have looked shaky thus far in 2016.

The REDBLACKS’ offence faced some boos during a lacklustre return from the injured list for Burris in last week’s loss to Toronto, while Edmonton’s once-fearsome defence has held only one of its first five opponents under 30 points.

Perhaps a change of scenery will do the Edmonton Eskimos some good.

Saturday’s visit to the Ottawa will be just the second road game of the season for Edmonton (2-3), which has posted a disappointing 1-3 record at Commonwealth Stadium out of the gate.

“We’ve had a couple of good days in the film room seeing how our opponent has changed in the last couple of weeks,” Eskimos quarterback Mike Reilly told Esks.com. “We had a stretch where we were just off and that happens. Shoot, the last three-and-a-half years I’ve been here, we’ve had stretches where we’ve gone through what every offence goes through.”

Reilly will have to play to his usual standards if Edmonton is to engineer a win on the road and claw back to a .500 record.

“There’s going to be stretches in every game where you’re going to hit (a) funk,” explained the Esks pivot, who leads the league with 1,926 passing yards. “You can only let it happen for a drive or two. You can’t let it happen for quarters on end. That’s something we have to figure out. Have somebody step up and make a play to get us back into it.”

Reilly has thrown for over 300 yards in his last eight games, and can tie former Montreal quarterback Anthony Calvillo for the all-time record in consecutive games with 300-plus yards if he breaks the mark in Ottawa on Saturday.

There’s no way around the fact that the Esks have struggled on the defensive side of the ball this season.

The same team that finished top-three in the CFL in points allowed (341, 1st), sacks (49, 3rd) and interceptions (23, 3rd) a year ago is struggling in all three departments through six weeks in 2016.

Edmonton’s been unable to create meaningful penetration (league-low eight sacks) and has largely been unable to come up with the big play when needed on defence, despite having noted playmakers like Marcus Howard, J.C. Sherritt and Odell Willis in its front seven.

Eskimos receiver Derel Walker’s 642 receiving yards through his team’s first five games are the second-most in CFL history only to Milt Stegall, who hauled in 645 yards in Winnipeg’s first five games of the 2002 season.

On the Ottawa side of the football, a pair of losses — specifically last week’s against Toronto — have dislodged the REDBLACKS (3-2-1) from first place in the East Division. MOP candidate quarterback Trevor Harris remains on the shelf, meaning 2015 MOP Henry Burris will have a chance to right the ship after a dismal performance last week.

“I expect him to get things running,” Ottawa head coach Rick Campbell told OttawaREDBLACKS.com. “He’s done so well, did so well in training camp and pre-season, and in the first Edmonton game before he got injured.”

The REDBLACKS’ defence will be in for a unique challenge against the Eskimos, one of the top passing teams in the league.

“It’s going to be a tough task, they’ve got some good playmakers,” said defensive back Jermaine Robinson. “Reilly’s playing some good ball — we’ve got to keep things in front of us and finish this week, start playing better on defence, (and) keep them out of field-goal range.”

Ottawa’s defence will be boosted by the return of Moton Hopkins on the line and Nick Taylor’s debut in the secondary. Hopkins, a Tulsa alumnus, is coming off a career-high 25 tackles in 2015, while the speedy Taylor spent some time in camp with the New York Jets in 2014.

“It’s fun to get to play with some new guys,” said REDBLACKS defensive back Antoine Pruneau. “That’s something we’ve been through a lot this season, and it’s exciting for guys to get their first starts.”

The book on the Eskimos’ offence is out, but that doesn’t make stopping them any easier.

“They’ve got a great group of receivers,” said Pruneau. “Guys like Adarius Bowman and (Derel) Walker can be big threats for the deep bomb, and (we have to) make sure Reilly doesn’t beat us with his feet.”

The REDBLACKS will also start their last two first-round draft picks side-by-side on the offensive line, with Alex Mateas (2015, 1st-overall) and Jason Lauzon-Sequin (2016, 7th-overall) set to start at right guard and right tackle respectively.

Week 7 CFL games

Edmonton (2-3) @ Ottawa (3-2-1)– RedBlacks (+6) won season opener 45-37 at Edmonton, tying game with 0:01 left, then winning in OT for its first series win in six games. Ottawa threw for 543 yards (10.4 ypa). Eskimos won their two visits here, 10-8/23-12; they’ve allowed 30+ points in four of five games, won only road game 20-16 at Winnipeg three weeks ago. RedBlacks lost last two games after a 3-0-1 start; under is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Ottawa is 0-1-1 at home, losing to Toronto last week after tying Calgary in home opener.

— Edmonton Eskimos @ Ottawa RedBlacks (-4, 58.5)

— Underdogs 16-5 Home 5-18-1 vs spread Over: 9-13-2

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

The headliner on Saturday is Frosted, who is going to be sent off at a puny price in the $1.25 million Whitney (G1) at Saratoga. The race is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) this November at Santa Anita.

The colt won the Met Mile (G1) in his last outing by 14 ¼ lengths and he earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 123. That is the highest number since 2007, when Midnight Lute earned a 124 and Will’s Way a 126.

The effort also helped end the “Dubai bounce” myth as the colt was making his first start since a fifth place finish in the Dubai World Cup (G1) in March. Now he comes back off a 56-day break and the question horseplayers must ask is whether we are going to see a regression.

The Met Mile was a one turn race, and the Whitney is an extra furlong and two turns. The colt ran twice at the Spa last summer, running second in the Jim Dandy (G2) and third in the Travers (G1), earning Beyers of 104 and 102.

If he regresses back to a number more normal, perhaps a 106 (his Pennsylvania Derby fig and previous high) that still makes him the one to beat.

However, his price is going to be below his 3-5 morning line and he does have a couple of talented foes in Noble Bird and Effinex.

Noble Bird earned a 108 Beyer winning last year’s Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) and earned a 110 winning this spring’s Pimlico Special Handicap (G3) by 11 ¼ lengths.

Effinex has earned Beyers of 106 or higher four times in his career including a career top 112 in last year’s runner up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) behind American Pharoah.

Of the two, Noble Bird is likely going to offer more bang for the buck. He is 10-1 on the morning line while Effinex is listed at 7-2.

We have racing at Saratoga six days a week, with Tuesday our only off day.


Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:00 ET)
#2 Panama Papers 4-1
#1 Brooklyn Bobby 5-2
#5 Keep Quiet 10-1
#7 Giant Brownie 6-1

Analysis: Panama Papers put in a god effort in his debut going six furlongs on turf at Belmont Park. Sent off at 17-1, the colt tracked the early pace and made a mild late bid to finish third. The $170,000 Keeneland purchase should appreciate the extra ground. He is by Grade 1 turfer English Channel out of an Elusive Quality mare, her first foal to race. The Hushion barn is 40% winners (with a +ROI) with second out maidens.

Brooklyn Bobby makes his debut for the Lynch barn that is 16% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. The colt is by the great turf star Frankel out of the multiple stakes winner Balance ($1 million). She has dropped three foals to race but they are a combined 0 for 15 to date. This colt is working as if he has some ability.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,5,7
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,5,7 / 1,2,5,7,12

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 8 The Test G1 (5:02 ET)
#5 Lightstream 8-1
#3 Kareena 9-5
#7 Off the Tracks 8-5
#6 Lewis Ray 9-2

Analysis: Lightstream suffered her first loss last out in the Mother Goose (G1) where she stalked the early pace and made a mild late run to finish third, beaten 4 1/2 lengths by Off the Tracks. Her first three starts all came at seven furlongs including winning the Beaumont (G3) at Keeneland in her first start against winners and then winning the Soaring Softly on turf. She earned a big fig in her debut at Gulfstream Park and the cut back here should suit. She did not look as if she was fully cranked last out and could be tough here at a decent price.

Kareena tracked the early pace and drew off to a smart looking win in the Jersey Girl at Belmont Park in her last outing. The runner up Appealing Maggie came back to win the Ms Woodford at Monmouth Park in her next start on July 17. This filly is very quick, owning a good edge in early and mid pace numbers and she will be the one to catch. The McLaughlin barn has been very live at the meeting and Castellano takes the call for the first time here.

Off the Tracks won the Mother Goose last out in gate to wire fashion and now cuts back to seven furlongs. She won her first three starts in her career sprinting including the Schyulerville (G3) here last summer in her first start against winners. Pletcher hits at a 21% clip moving runners from route to sprint. The main knock is going to be the short price.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 3,5,6,7
TRI: 3,5 / 3,5,6,7 / 3,5,6,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

DMR Race 9 The La Jolla Hcp G3 (6:03 PT)
#10 Imperious One 15-1
#3 Moonlight Drive 3-1
#4 Dressed in Hermes 8-1
#8 Monster Bea 5-2

Analysis: Imperious One came off a 5 1/2 month layoff last out in the restricted Oceanside where the colt dueled for the early lead and faded to finish ninth. He ran second in the Eddie Logan last December at Santa Anita in his second start since landing in the U.S., then trounced Alw-1 optional claimers before hitting the bench. He should be fitter second off the bench for the O'Neill barn that is 17% winners with runners making their second start off a 46-180-day layoff. Worth a good look here at a generous price.

Moonlight Drive also exits the Oceanside and it was his first go off a five moth layoff. The Baffert trainee tracked the early pace, grabbed the lead heading for home and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish. He beat Alw-1 optional claimers two back in a sharp effort in his U.S. debut and off a three-month break. He has landed in the exacta in 5 of his 7 career starts and looks primed for a top effort here.

Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 6-1 or better.
EX: 3,10 / 3,4,8,10
TRI: 3,10 / 3,4,8,10 / 3,4,6,8,10

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R1: #5 Keep Quiet 10-1
R2: #4 Tyler U 8-1
R3: #2 Afleet’s Edge 8-1
R5: #7 Ballagh Rocks 15-1
R6: #5 Curlout 8-1
R8: #5 Lightstream 8-1
R9: #10 Desiree Clary 8-1
R9: #1 Photo Call 8-1
R10: #5 Noble Bird 10-1
R10: #2 Comfort 8-1
R11: #8 Akatea 12-1
R11: #4 Lady Lara 8-1

Good luck today!

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Century Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Post: 2:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$7800 - HCP NW 4 RACES OR 23,500 LIFE


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 WITHFLYINGCOLOURS 3/1



# 6 SOMEWHEREINMEXICO 8/1



# 5 ROYAL RENEGADE 4/1



WITHFLYINGCOLOURS will have you running to the cashier's window in this race. The panel of smart guys saw this horse's name in a book. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small bet. Had one of the most solid TrackMaster speed figs of the pack in his last race. A good idea to use in your wagers. Drawing the 4 position at this track has lead to a better than expected win rate. SOMEWHEREINMEXICO - Top notch win rate combined with recent formidable performances. We think he can handle this group. The 78 average class number may give this gelding a distinct edge in the pack. ROYAL RENEGADE - Can't miss based on TrackMaster Speed Ratings which have been stellar (80 avg) recently. This horse may wake up with a medication change (with first time Lasix) today.

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 9:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 84 - Purse:$9500 - FILLIES & MARES NON WINNERS $8000 IN LAST 5 STARTS. AE: CLAIMING $15,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 EYEWITNESS ACCOUNT 5/1



# 9 CHAMPAGNE SHOWER 4/1



# 1 APACH OF LUCK 3/1



EYEWITNESS ACCOUNT looks good to best this group of animals. The brain trust knows that speed is King in harness racing. This contender will unlock our way to a nice ultimate prize. CHAMPAGNE SHOWER - This horse looks strong considering the high class statistics. Don't throw out of any exotics. Take a good long look at making this horse your win play based on excellent win percent alone. APACH OF LUCK - Have to give the nod to a nice horse coming out of the Northfield Park 1 hole. The win percentage is exemplary, way above normal. The handicapping group saw this horse's name on a t-shirt. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small play.

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Monmouth Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16700 Class Rating: 76

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 7 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $14,000 1 LB.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 SASSY SPINSTER 10/1


# 1 R KNOWN FACT 7/2


# 8 OUTZAP 5/2


SASSY SPINSTER has a respectable shot to take this race and is a respectable value bet given the line at 10/1. Is difficult not to look at given the company run in lately. Should be given a chance as she drops to compete against this softer lot. This mare should be given a shot just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone. R KNOWN FACT - Displays reliable speed figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. Ought to compete soundly in the early pace contest which bodes well with this group. OUTZAP - Exhibits the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 64 Equibase speed fig which is one of the top in this group. Has garnered reliable Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past.

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Malad

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Trial - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $500 Class Rating: 74

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHTS 124 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 CM PARTNERS IN CRIME 2/1


# 4 STELLUR 8/5


# 5 ALRIGHT JESS 3/1


I think CM PARTNERS IN CRIME is a very strong choice. She has been racing soundly recently while recording solid speed figs. Has respectable early speed and ought to fare very well against this group. Ought to be considered in here if only for the decent speed figure garnered in the last affair. STELLUR - Arrossa has him trained soundly to break swiftly out of the starting gate. Have to believe this horse will do well again this time around. ALRIGHT JESS - Ran a strong last race. Has recorded formidable Equibase Speed Figures in short races in the past.