Bm 2016 nfl system picks: *2015 97-63-13=60.3% +18.41 units

bostonmickey1125 · Aug 6, 2016

BOSTON MICKEY 2016 NFL SYSTEM RULES:

SYSTEM PICKS

SYSTEM USES 4 SUBSETS OF DATA TO DETERMINE AN NFL TEAMS PREDICTED COVER POINTS AND COMPARES THEM TO THEIR WEEKLY OPPONENTS.THEN DETERMINES WHICH TEAM IS THE FAVORITE TO WIN AND COVER CURRENT ATS LINES.

FAV PLAY:
WHEN PRED. COVER FAVORITE POINTS EQUAL CURRENT ATS LINE. (=0.00)

FAV PLAY WITH CUSHION:
WHEN PRED. COVER FAVORITE POINTS ARE HIGHER THAN CURRENT ATS LINE, AND DIF IS POSITIVE LEAVING EXTRA POINTS (CUSHION) FOR LINE MOVEMENT.

FAV PLAY UNDERDOG:
WHEN PRED. COVER FAVORITE POINTS ARE HIGHER THAN CURRENT ATS LINE AND IS AN UNDERDOG.

EVEN MATCHUPS:
WHEN PRED COVER POINTS ARE CLOSE TO 0 AND LESS THEN OR EQUAL TO 1.00: SYSTEM PREDICTS THESE AS EQUALLY MATCHED TEAMS, SO WHEN E.M. ARE PRED. TAKING POINTS/UNDERDOG IS THE PLAY DUE TO EQUAL OR CLOSE PREDICTION.

WHEN TAKING POINTS OR HOME TEAM IN THIS SCENARIO IS ALMOST 50/50 WHEN PLACING A BET ON IT. SO TAKING POINTS/UNDERDOG IS MY PLAY FOR THE SYSTEM

UNDERVALUED UNDERDOGS:
WHEN PRED. COVER FAVORITE IS THE CURRENT ATS UNDERDOG

NOT A FAN OF THIS SYSTEM PICK (HAS HAD BAD NUMBERS THE LAST 3 YRS 27-31-5 -2.5 UNITS)

REGULAR PICKS

NON SYSTEM PLAYS

PARLAY PICKS

PRED COVER AND CURRENT ATS LINE WHEN SUBRACTED THE "DIF" EQUAL TO -1.50, -1.00, -0.50.

WIN

LOSS

PUSH

I HAVE $2000.00 FOR THE SYSTEM THIS YR
SYSTEM PICKS: 1000.00 BUYIN $25-50 EACH PLAY
OVERALL PICKS: 1000.00 BUY IN $10 EACH PLAY

*******2016 WEEKS 1-4 USES ADJUSTED 2015 STATISTICS UNTIL 2016 STATISTICAL SAMPLE SIZE GETS TO WEEK 5. (2015 WEEKS 1-4 RECORD
2015 ATS
W1 11-5
W2 11-5
W3 7-9
W4 7-9

36-28-0 =56.3% +4.0 UNITS

indiana · Aug 6, 2016

BM/1125........BOL with all your action this season..............indy

bostonmickey1125 · Aug 6, 2016

WEEK 1: SUBJECT TO LINE & TOTAL CHANGES. WILL UPDATE IF NECCESARY.

W1

MATCHUPS

PRED FAV

LINE

PRED COVER PNTS

DIF

SYSTEM PLAY

PRED ATS PICK

O/U

PRED OU PK

PRED TOT

DIF

FINAL TOTAL

TOT DIF

SYSTEM PLAY

1Th

CAR

VS

DEN

CAR

-2

5.50

3.50

FAV PLAY W/ +3.5 POINT CUSHION

CAR

-2

43.0

UND

37.5

-5.50

0

-43

2

TB

VS

ATL

-3

0.50

-2.50

EVEN MATCHUP TAKE POINTS

TB

+3

47.5

UND

44

-3.50

0

-47.5

3

BUF

VS

BAL

BUF

+3

2.50

5.50

UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG

BUF

+3

43.0

UND

45.5

2.50

0

-43

ALL OVER FADE/ UNDER

4

CHI

VS

HOU

-5.5

2.00

-3.50

REG

CHI

+5.5

44.0

NP

43.5

-0.50

0

-44

5

GB

VS

JAX

GB

-4

2.50

-1.50

REG

JAX

+4

47.0

OV

48

1.00

0

-47

6

SD

VS

KC

-7

7.00

0.00

FAV PLAY

KC

-7

43.0

OV

44.5

1.50

0

-43

7

OAK

VS

NO

OAK

+1.5

2.00

3.50

UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG

OAK

+1.5

50.0

OV

54

4.00

0

-50

8

CIN

VS

NYJ

CIN

-2

3.50

1.50

FAV PLAY W/ +1.5 POINT CUSHION

CIN

-2

42.5

UND

37

-5.50

0

-42.5

9

CLE

VS

PHI

-7

5.50

-1.50

REG

CLE

+7

45.0

OV

45

0.00

0

-45

10

MIN

VS

TEN

MIN

-3

4.00

1.00

FAV PLAY W/ +1 POINT CUSHION

MIN

-3

42.0

OV

42.5

0.50

0

-42

11

MIA

VS

SEA

-7.5

7.00

-0.50

REG

MIA

+7.5

44.0

UND

41

-3.00

-44

12

NYG

VS

DAL

NYG

+3.5

5.00

8.50

UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG

NYG

+3.5

49.0

UND

45

-4.00

-49

13

DET

VS

IND

DET

+5

0.00

5.00

EVEN MATCHUP TAKE POINTS

DET

+5

49.0

UND?

45

-4.00

-49

14

NE

VS

ARI

-5.5

2.50

-3.00

REG

NE

+5.5

51.0

UND

40

-11.00

-51

15

PIT

VS

WAS

PIT

-3

2.00

-1.00

REG

WAS

+3

50.5

OV

46.5

-4.00

-50.5

ALL UNDER FADE/ OVER

16MN

LAR

VS

SF

LAR

-2

2.00

0.00

FAV PLAY

LAR

-2

46.0

OV

36

-10.00

-46

ALL UNDER FADE/ OVER

bostonmickey1125 · Aug 6, 2016

dog parlay
jax	+4
cle	+7
mia	+7.5
was	+3
o/u parlay
buf	43.0	und
was	50.5	ov
lar	46.0	ov
fav parlay
car	-2
kc	-7
min	-3
lar	-2

bostonmickey1125 · Aug 6, 2016

Any questions feel free... I dont do preseason games.

bostonmickey1125 · Aug 6, 2016

bm 2015 nfl system w/l record ats breakdown (partial yr)
	w	l	p	t	%	w/l dif	w/l $vig
reg plays	36	24	3	63	57.1%	12	$545
even matchup
0.00	5	4	2	11	45.5%	1	$45.5
0.50	3	2	0	5	60.0%	1	$45.5
1.00	5	2	0	7	71.4%	3	$136.4
		13	8	2	23	56.5%	5	$227.3
e.m. Take home team	10	6	1	17	58.8%
e.m. Take points	9	7	1	17	52.9%
undervalued underdogs	8	10	2	20	40.0%	-2	$(136.4)

fav play 0.00	5	3	2	10	50.0%	2	$136.4
fav play with cushion	31	18	4	53	58.5%	13	$886.4
fav play $50 underdog	4	0	0	4	100.0%	4	$181.8
		40	21	6	67	59.7%
totals	97	63	13	173	60.3%	34	$1,841

thought this might be useful to some.

bostonmickey1125 · Aug 6, 2016

Thanks indy , bol to you 2!!

fightgood · Aug 7, 2016

When your graph says "Pred Fav" It means that's who you think should be favored, right? For instance you have Buffalo Bills as Pred Fav even though they are the dog.

bostonmickey1125 · Aug 7, 2016

fightgood said:
when your graph says "pred fav" it means that's who you think should be favored, right? For instance you have buffalo bills as pred fav even though they are the dog.

yes you are correct. Pred fav is the team that is predicted to win or supposed to be the favorite not always to cover ats. Buf as the pred fav is pred to win and cover ats. Hope this helps understand

you want to just look at pred ats pick and what type of pick it is. The carolina game is a fav play and car is predicted to 5.5 points. The current line is -2 car..,leaving 3.5 left for line change or movemetn. So carolina can cover up to 5.5 points, if the line goes to 6 then i would play on den +6. Makes sense?

E-49-R · Aug 8, 2016

Nice system...I haven't seen this one...57% is nice BOL bm!

bostonmickey1125 · Aug 9, 2016

e-49-r said:
nice system...i haven't seen this one...57% is nice bol bm!

thanks, should be fun. Gl to us! Welcome to the rx this place is wicked

bostonmickey1125 · Aug 26, 2016

WEEK 1 UPDATED

W1

MATCHUPS

PRED FAV

LINE

PRED COVER PNTS

DIF

SYSTEM PLAY

PRED ATS PICK

LIVE O/U

PRED OU PK

PRED TOT

DIF

FINAL TOTAL

TOT DIF

SYSTEM PLAY

1Th

CAR

VS

DEN

CAR

-3

5.50

2.50

FAV PLAY W/ POINT CUSHION

CAR

-3

43.0

UND

37.5

-5.50

0

-43

2

TB

VS

ATL

-3

0.50

-2.50

EVEN MATCHUP TAKE POINTS

TB

+3

47.5

UND

44

-3.50

0

-47.5

3

BUF

VS

BAL

BUF

+3

2.50

5.50

UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG

BUF

+3

43.0

UND

45.5

2.50

0

-43

ALL OVER FADE/ UNDER

4

CHI

VS

HOU

-4

2.00

-2.00

REG

CHI

+4

44.0

NP

43.5

-0.50

0

-44

5

GB

VS

JAX

GB

-4

2.50

-1.50

REG

JAX

+4

47.0

OV

48

1.00

0

-47

6

SD

VS

KC

-7

7.00

0.00

FAV PLAY

KC

-7

43.0

OV

44.5

1.50

0

-43

7

OAK

VS

NO

OAK

+1

2.00

3.00

UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG

OAK

+1

50.5

OV

54

3.50

0

-50.5

8

CIN

VS

NYJ

CIN

-2

3.50

1.50

FAV PLAY W/ POINT CUSHION

CIN

-2

41.5

UND

37

-4.50

0

-41.5

9

CLE

VS

PHI

-6

5.50

-0.50

REG

CLE

+6

43.5

OV

45

1.50

0

-43.5

DOWN 1.5

10

MIN

VS

TEN

MIN

-3.5

4.00

0.50

FAV PLAY W/ POINT CUSHION

MIN

-3.5

42.0

OV

42.5

0.50

0

-42

11

MIA

VS

SEA

-10.5

7.00

-3.50

REG

MIA

+10.5

44.0

UND

41

-3.00

0

-44

12

NYG

VS

DAL

NYG

+3.5

5.00

8.50

UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG

NYG

+3.5

49.0

UND

45

-4.00

0

-49

13

DET

VS

IND

DET

+5

0.00

5.00

EVEN MATCHUP TAKE POINTS

DET

+5

49.0

UND?

45

-4.00

0

-49

14

NE

VS

ARI

-6

2.50

-3.50

REG

NE

+6

47.5

UND

40

-7.50

0

-47.5

DOWN 3.5

15

PIT

VS

WAS

PIT

-3

2.00

-1.00

REG

WAS

+3

50.0

OV

46.5

-3.50

0

-50

ALL UNDER FADE/ OVER

16MN

LAR

VS

SF

LAR

-2.5

2.00

-0.50

REG

LAR

-2.5

44.0

OV

36

-8.00

0

-44

ALL UNDER FADE/ OVER

BOLDED LINES: SPREAD CHANGED

bostonmickey1125 · Sep 6, 2016

WEEK 1
2ND UPDATE/LAST

↓↑

W1

MATCHUPS

PRED FAV

LINE

PRED COVER PNTS

DIF

SYSTEM PLAY

PRED ATS PICK

LIVE O/U

PRED OU PK

PRED TOT

DIF

FINAL TOTAL

TOT DIF

SYSTEM PLAY

1Th

CAR

VS

DEN

CAR

-3

5.50

2.50

FAV PAY W/ CUSH

CAR

-3

42.0

UND

37.5

-4.50

0

-42

2

TB

VS

ATL

-3

0.50

-2.50

EVEN MATCHUP TAKE POINTS

TB

+3

47.5

UND

44

-3.5

0

-47.5

3

BUF

VS

BAL

BUF

+3

2.50

5.50

UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG

BUF

+3

44.5

UND

45.5

1.00

0

-44.5

UNDER

4

CHI

VS

HOU

-6

2.00

-4.00

REG

CHI

+6

44.0

NP

43.5

-0.50

0

-44

5

GB

VS

JAX

GB

-4.5

2.50

-2.00

REG

JAX

+4.5

48.0

OV

48

0.00

0

-48

6

SD

VS

KC

-7

7.00

0.00

FAV PLAY

KC

-7

44.5

OV

44.5

0.00

0

-44.5

7

OAK

VS

NO

OAK

+1

2.00

3.00

UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG

OAK

+1

51.0

OV

54

3.00

0

-51

8

CIN

VS

NYJ

CIN

-3

3.50

0.50

FAV PLAY W/ CUSHION

CIN

-3

41.5

UND

37

-4.50

0

-41.5

9

CLE

VS

PHI

-4

3.50

-0.50

REG

CLE

+4

41.5

OV

45

3.50

0

-41.5

DOWN 3.5

10

MIN

VS

TEN

MIN

-1.5

2.00

0.50

FAV PLAY W/ CUSHION

MIN

-1.5

41.0

OV

42.5

1.50

0

-41

11

MIA

VS

SEA

-10.5

7.00

-3.50

REG

MIA

+10.5

44.0

UND

41

-3.00

0

-44

12

NYG

VS

DAL

NYG

0

5.00

5.00

UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG

NYG

PK

46.0

UND

45

-1.00

0

-46

13

DET

VS

IND

DET

+3.5

0.00

3.50

EVEN MATCHUP TAKE POINTS

DET

+3.5

51.5

UND

45

-6.50

0

-51.5

14

NE

VS

ARI

-6

2.50

-3.50

REG

NE

+6

47.5

UND

40

-7.50

0

-47.5

DOWN 3.5

15MN

PIT

VS

WAS

PIT

-3

2.00

-1.00

REG

WAS

+3

50.0

OV

46.5

-3.50

0

-50

OVER

16MN

LAR

VS

SF

LAR

-2.5

2.00

-0.50

REG

LAR

-2.5

44.0

OV

36

-8.00

0

-44

OVER

SYSTEM PLAYS/W1

FAV PLAYS
KC -7

FAV PLAYS WITH CUSHION
CAR -3
MIN -1.5
CIN -3

EVEN MATCHUPS
TB +3
DET+3.5

UNDERVALUED UNDERDOGS
BUF +3
OAK +1
NYG PK

TOTALS
BUF @ BAL UNDER 44.5
PIT @ WAS OVER 50
LAR @ SF OVER 44

MY FAV SYSTEM PLAY OF WEEK
CAR -3
________________________________

REGULAR PLAYS
CHI +6
JAX +4.5
CLE +4
MIA+10.5
NE +6
WAS +3
LAR -2.5

GL RX THIS FOOTBALL SEASON SHOULD BE FUN AND GOD WILLING PROFITABLE!!

varkeyboy · Sep 6, 2016

How did you do last year? Thanks.

bostonmickey1125 · Sep 6, 2016

varkeyboy said:
how did you do last year? Thanks.

posted above. Post #6 gl varkey

NYG4lifeNYK · Sep 6, 2016

Thanks for posting all this data brother.

Sorry if I'm a bit confused. Am I correct in reading that your predicted line is Giants +3 as in they should be favored by 3 points and that they'll cover by 5? Or am I completely off-base? haha

KingEleven · Sep 6, 2016

good luck BM

bostonmickey1125 · Sep 7, 2016

nyg4lifenyk said:
thanks for posting all this data brother.

Sorry if i'm a bit confused. Am i correct in reading that your predicted line is giants +3 as in they should be favored by 3 points and that they'll cover by 5? Or am i completely off-base? Haha

yea a bit off.

If you look nyg pred cover points are 5, the current line is a pk...nyg can cover up tpo 5 points. If the current line moved over 5 to 5.5 , then you would play on dallas, make sense?

bostonmickey1125 · Sep 7, 2016

W1

MATCHUPS

PRED FAV

LINE

PRED COVER PNTS

DIF

SYSTEM PLAY

PRED ATS PICK

LIVE O/U

PRED OU PK

PRED TOT

DIF

FINAL TOTAL

TOT DIF

SYSTEM PLAY

1Th

CAR

VS

DEN

CAR

-3

5.50

2.50

FAV PLAY W/ CUSHION

CAR

-3

42.0

UND

37.5

-4.50

0

-42

EXAMPLE..CAR IS THE PREDICTED FAVORITE (NOT CURRENT LINE FAV ALL THE TIME) . MY SYSTEM PREDICTS CAR CAN COVER UP TO 5.5 POINTS..IF CAR CURRENT LINE WAS -6, THEN I WOULD PLAY ON DEN. SINCE CAR LINE IS -3, IT LEAVES 2.5 LEFT OVER FOR POINT MOVEMENT. HOPE THIS CLEARS UP CONFUSION

HotRocks · Sep 7, 2016

Are these the official and final play for week 1?

FAV PLAYS
KC -7

FAV PLAYS WITH CUSHION
CAR -3
MIN -1.5
CIN -3

EVEN MATCHUPS
TB +3
DET+3.5

UNDERVALUED UNDERDOGS
BUF +3
OAK +1
NYG PK

TOTALS
BUF @ BAL UNDER 44.5
PIT @ WAS OVER 50
LAR @ SF OVER 44

MY FAV SYSTEM PLAY OF WEEK
CAR -3
________________________________

REGULAR PLAYS
CHI +6
JAX +4.5
CLE +4
MIA+10.5
NE +6
WAS +3
LAR -2.5

Bm 2016 nfl system picks: *2015 97-63-13=60.3% +18.41 units

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