Teams to pay attention to going into the stretch. Thoughts and discussion welcome.

Been thinking about what teams to fade or follow for the remainder of the year. I know each matchup is it's own entity, but looking at more generalized trends of teams going into the stretch. I would love to hear your guys' thoughts, especially on teams you follow more closely than others.

Reds:
Cincy being my team, I pay a little closer attention to them. Right now, public perception of them is that they really suck, and they have. But their starting pitching is really coming around right now. DeSclafani has been terrific. Finnegan and Strailly are doing a pretty darn good job. Homer Bailey is back, and I expect him to continue where he left off. And their bullpen has been one of the best in the NL since the all star break. Hopefully Cody Reed doesn't get assigned to the bullpen. We want to know when he is pitching. I would hate to play an under, then Reed gets called upon in the 6th inning, only to give up 4 runs. So I expect the books o/u on Reds games will be bloated based on past performance, and will be looking for opportunities to play the under in some match ups. I also expect their pitching staff to keep them in more games, so will also be looking forward to picking them to win a few games.

You know it always feel they give up too fast. Same with my Pirates. They look at 10 games down in July as a unimaginable feat and they start a fire sale. I might be wrong u would know about ur team but it just always seems that way......

Cant believe im saying this but the Twinkies are battling

Tigers
won 9 of their last 10. Won 8 in a row before loss to white sox. When ever Fulmer and Verlander pitches they are a great play. If Jordan Zimmerman finds his stride they can be money, bullpen has been ok as well. Their trying to take the top spot from Cleveland only 2gb and slowly chip away at their lead

Indians:
Don't have to worry about their hitting. They've been swinging the bat well all year. I am a bit worried about their pitching though. They've been lights out all year, but I think the starters can use some extra rest right now. They've been going deep into games all year until recently. Now the pen is overused. I bet they would love to give some minor leaguers a few starts, but they've got the Tigers right on their tail, and certainly need to keep the foot on the pedal down the stretch. Their games totals are trending higher right now, and I think the books totals will be deflated some based on this year's performance of their starting pitchers.

I hear you on that PW. Cincy can go from 10 down to 30 down pretty quick. I've been through this with them for a few decades now. I'm more leaning on unders with them.

And the Twins are definitely on my radar.

yeah Ajay. I'll be honest. The Tigers crept up on me. Their pitching is coming around nicely. What throws me off with them is the bottom of their lineup. What a difference between the top and bottom of the order. It's a rollercoaster of a lineup, and I can't get a handle on it.

Orioles:
I think they've over-achieved some in the 1st half, and there is going to be some sort of regression. They can put up numbers at times, but they can also give them up. Looking ahead even farther, that's not a good recipe for the playoffs. They most likely will be on my fade radar come October.

MoMoneyNoProblem said:

Orioles:
I think they've over-achieved some in the 1st half, and there is going to be some sort of regression. They can put up numbers at times, but they can also give them up. Looking ahead even farther, that's not a good recipe for the playoffs. They most likely will be on my fade radar come October.

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agree...not big fan of teams relying on the 3 run HR

Money is going to be made on the Giants. Nunez with another 4 hits yesterday. With him an Pence inserted the lineup is monumentally different.

RedElephants said:

Money is going to be made on the Giants. Nunez with another 4 hits yesterday. With him an Pence inserted the lineup is monumentally different.

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Great point Red....we're on the same track....

Giants: I think they had a putrid record coming out of the All Star Break. They played below their level. I expect the lines to favor value on this team as they progress back to the mean. Here on the West Coast, I read a lot and here a lot about them... Not sure I'll be right, but their winning % has to improve.

Rays: This is a scrappy team who has a losing streak to beat all MLB's losing streaks this year. Here, I say hold your nose and take them to win at a higher winning % than what they had when the All Star break hit. Usually big dogs, they get plus money and many public sentiment against them. (People love to bet against a loser.) As with most professional sports, there is a small difference between teams when considering the line. Furthermore, their .368 winning % was so terrible, I expected them to improve from there and they have!!!! Looking at the records since the All Star Break* (ALB) they are a strong 11-10. Very quietly improving from .368 to ABOVE .500... .524 to be exact.

Royals: When a team has tasted such success as they have, but then down spiral like they have done, I think it continues. This is only a hunch, but they have lost a number of players to injury, trade and players have not played to their best of their ability this season. I think you can get some value going against them. They are the opposite of TB. They had a .511 winning % at the *(ALB) and now they are tanking....matter of fact, they have continued to tank. 7-15 (.318) is a far cry from their .511......

Lastly, I like to go against pitchers who have not done it in the past, but have had great first halves in the year. Looking at this season any pitcher who has a break out season going 10-0 or 13-1 and starts the ASG will have a regression and bettors who go against them will get GREAT VALUE. Only caveat is that they must not have great pedigree. This year Cueto and Sale both have great pedigree. They both have done well for years, thus is doesn't apply, but guys who looked great for a half and then start the big game do poorly thereafter....names that won me big money: Ubaldo Jimenez (CWS), Brad Penny (LAD).

Thank you MoMoneyNoProblem for opening this thread. It really resonated with me.

~Derty D~