Trying a new system

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Trying a new system out that I have been following. So far, seems pretty cool.

Today's play is the Angels at -113. All plays on this thread will be 1 unit.

Lets see how this goes. It may suck, but hopefully will add some value in this form

thx
 
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Trying a "cold bat" theory. Could be something and could be diddly squat. But if it can make us some extra pocket change, then why not?
 
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0-1 down 1.13 units

sux the halos blew it in late innings. No plays today.

Best of luck today & enjoy your Sunday with your loved ones since NFL starts a few weeks from now
 

Biz

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If you give me the parameters, I can backtest it for you.
 
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Not trying to troll here Knight. A "theory" is an idea. A "system" is a theory proven by back testing. This is why Biz and myself asked for the parameters. Unless you have already back tested it. Then I would love to here your results.
 
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No worries. U are the one who got me thinking of this after "Cody reed" day last week when the cards scored 4 in the 1st and then 1 more for rest of the game and then took a dump the next game.

Looking at teams that score 4 or more runs in the 1st inning and then 0 or 1 run the rest of the game. I'm thinking they will lose the next game due to "cold bats"

i did did a small sample size and it looked good but I really didn't have the time to crunch all the numbers. If u want to back test, please be my guest. If we can have some extra beer money or video games for the kids, then I'm game
 
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That would be quite a bit of work to look at many, many box scores, but totally doable. On my slow days at work, I do things like this to try to find a system or pattern. More so in basketball. I don't think anyone has ever found a foolproof system. I think the best way is to cap each game on its own merits. And even that's difficult for most of us, myself included.

And oh yes, tomorrow is Cody Reed Day again.
 
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And I suspect I'll have a slow night at work tonight, so I'll do some preliminary scouting on this theory. If nothing else, will make the night go quicker.
 
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Exactly about being timely. That's why I chose random days and took a quick look. I used the MLB app on my phone b/c they show box scores and u don't have to click.

Like I said, I only thought of this a few days ago and decided to post this while my wife was waiting in a long line during back 2 school shopping. I wanted to post this "system/theory" for the rest of season to see if gains legs for next season. Still gonna try to post for rest of season to see if it's worth playing for next season.

I've been reason the RX for over 15 years. My favorite thing about this site is "people sharing the wealth". College hoops (the best) and college football are the best 2 forums on here. However, this season has been delightful in the baseball forum. Winning helps that a lot!!
 
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Also curious to see if the braves are in play tomorrow. They scored 3 in the first, 3 in the 2nd, and then didn't score for next 7 innings. Does this hangover effect go into tomorrow? Then again, they are 1 of the worst teams in baseball so they are supposed to lose.

Right now I say "no play" b/c I want at least 4 in the 1st

however u back test and see something, let me know
 
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What I'll probably wind up doing is back test with different parameter so I don't have to look at a boxscore more than once.

1. 4 runs in the 1st, then one or less run the rest of the game.
2. 5 runs in the 1st and 2nd, then 1 or less

maybe come up with 5 combinations. The problem with systems is that there are so many variables in any given sport, you cannot isolate one variable like you can do in a laboratory. But like I said, this can help me kill some time at my mind numbing job.
 
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If something sticks, then perfect. If nothing looks good, then at least u killed time at work and get paid anyway. Win win
 

Biz

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If opponent scored at least 4 in 1st, and scored 1 the rest of the game, and you are a DOG....... AND it is NOT the FGS (First Game Series):

op:R1 >= 4 and op:R1 + 1 = op:S9 and season >= 2010 and D and SG > 1
SU:21-15 (0.17, 58.3%) avg line: 136.5 / -148.4 on / against: +$1,394 / -$1,664 ROI: +38.7% / -31.1%
RL:26-10 (1.67, 72.2%) avg line: -152.9 / 140.8 on / against: +$1,092 / -$1,210 ROI: +19.8% / -33.5%
OU:16-19-1 (-0.29, 45.7%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$520 / +$165 ROI: -13.0% / +4.2%

<tbody>
</tbody>
RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team4.18.00.72.78.18.95.66.2
Opp3.98.10.42.87.89.85.36.6

<tbody>
</tbody>
DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/L OUmO/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Apr 29, 2010 boxThu away White Sox Gavin Floyd - RRangers Scott Feldman - R7-52 W2.5 O 8-9 1-2 4-2120 9.5 9
Jul 16, 2010 boxFri home Red Sox Felix Doubront - L Rangers Colby Lewis - R 4-8-4 L2.5 O 8-12 2-0 1-4120 9.5 9
Aug 18, 2010 boxWed away White Sox Gavin Floyd - R Twins Francisco Liriano - L 6-7-1 L6.0 O 10-13 0-0 2-2140 7.0 9
Aug 26, 2010 boxThu home Indians Justin Masterson - RAthletics Vin Mazzaro - R3-21 W-3.0 U 7-6 0-0 1-1105 8.0 9
Apr 09, 2011 boxSat away Royals Bruce Chen - LTigers Phil Coke - L3-12 W-5.5 U 5-5 0-0 3-0160 9.5 9
Jun 18, 2011 boxSat away Padres Tim Stauffer - RTwins Scott Baker - R0-1-1 L-6.5 U 4-6 0-0 0-1130 7.5 9
Aug 27, 2011 boxSat away Padres Aaron Harang - RDiamondbacks Joe Saunders - L1-3-2 L-5.5 U 5-8 1-1 0-3140 9.5 9
Sep 08, 2011 boxThu away Braves Julio Teheran - R Mets Dillon Gee - R5-14 W-2.0 U 7-7 0-2 4-0100 8.0 9
Apr 15, 2012 boxSun home Red Sox Felix Doubront - L Rays Matt Moore - L 6-42 W0.5 O 8-13 0-0 4-0-102 9.5 9
Jun 13, 2012 boxWed away Athletics Tommy Milone - L Rockies Josh Outman - L 10-82 W7.0 O 11-12 2-1 2-4100 11.0 9
Jul 28, 2012 boxSat away White Sox Phillip Humber - RRangers Matt Harrison - L 5-23 W-3.0 U 7-5 2-0 5-0170 10.0 9
Aug 01, 2012 boxWed home Cubs Travis Wood - L Pirates Jeff Karstens - R 4-8-4 L3.5 O 11-13 0-0 1-7112 8.5 9
Aug 29, 2012 boxWed away Mets Matt Harvey - RPhillies Tyler Cloyd - R3-21 W-3.0 U 8-6 1-0 1-1114 8.0 9
Sep 02, 2012 boxSun home Cubs Travis Wood - L Giants Matt Cain - R 5-7-2 L5.0 O 7-10 1-1 2-3170 7.0 9
Apr 10, 2013 boxWed away Pirates Jonathan Sanchez - L Diamondbacks Wade Miley - L2-10-8 L3.0 O 5-10 2-0 0-9170 9.0 9
Apr 20, 2013 boxSat away Cubs Edwin Jackson - RBrewers Hiram Burgos - R 1-5-4 L-2.5 U 7-6 3-0 0-4105 8.5 9
Apr 21, 2013 boxSun away Tigers Doug Fister - RAngels CJ Wilson - L3-4-1 L-1.0 U 10-8 2-0 1-2-102 8.0 10+
Apr 23, 2013 boxTue away Yankees Phil Hughes - RRays David Price - L4-31 W0.0 P 9-7 0-0 2-1162 7.0 9
May 08, 2013 boxWed away Rangers Derek Holland - LBrewers Kyle Lohse - R 4-13 W-3.0 U 12-12 0-1 3-0105 8.0 9
May 21, 2013 boxTue away Twins Mike Pelfrey - R Braves Tim Hudson - R 4-5-1 L1.0 O 10-10 0-0 1-2170 8.0 10+
Jul 21, 2013 boxSun away Pirates Jeff Locke - LReds Homer Bailey - R3-21 W-3.0 U 7-3 0-0 2-0130 8.0 9
Aug 10, 2013 boxSat away Marlins Nathan Eovaldi - RBraves Alex Wood - L1-01 W-6.5 U 3-3 0-1 1-0190 7.5 9
Aug 14, 2013 boxWed away Padres Andrew Cashner - RRockies Jorge De La Rosa - L2-4-2 L-3.5 U 8-8 0-0 0-2135 9.5 9
May 20, 2014 boxTue away White Sox Andre Rienzo - RRoyals Yordano Ventura - R 7-61 W5.0 O 12-10 0-0 5-1170 8.0 9
Jun 04, 2014 boxWed away Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma - RBraves Mike Minor - L2-02 W-4.5 U 9-6 0-0 2-0130 6.5 9
Jul 31, 2014 boxThu away White Sox John Danks - L Tigers Drew Smyly - L 7-43 W2.0 O 16-9 1-1 3-1170 9.0 9
Sep 02, 2014 boxTue away Mariners James Paxton - LAthletics Sonny Gray - R 6-51 W4.0 O 8-9 0-0 6-0130 7.0 9
Sep 03, 2014 boxWed away Reds Dylan Axelrod - R Orioles Miguel Gonzalez - R0-6-6 L-2.0 U 4-7 0-1 0-6150 8.0 9
Apr 28, 2015 boxTue home Twins Mike Pelfrey - RTigers Anibal Sanchez - R3-21 W-3.5 U 10-3 1-0 1-1128 8.5 9
Apr 29, 2015 boxWed away Angels Matt Shoemaker - R Athletics Jesse Hahn - R 6-33 W1.5 O 8-8 2-0 3-0105 7.5 9
Aug 09, 2015 boxSun away Mets Bartolo Colon - R Rays Chris Archer - R3-4-1 L0.5 O 6-10 0-0 3-1158 6.5 9
Aug 12, 2015 boxWed away Orioles Kevin Gausman - RMariners Hisashi Iwakuma - R0-3-3 L-4.0 U 0-6 0-0 0-3110 7.0 9
Sep 27, 2015 boxSun away Brewers Tyler Cravy - R Cardinals John Lackey - R8-44 W4.5 O 9-10 1-1 5-2205 7.5 9
May 07, 2016 boxSat home Angels Jered Weaver - RRays Jake Odorizzi - R2-4-2 L-2.0 U 7-8 2-1 2-2112 8.0 9
Jun 25, 2016 boxSat home Marlins Paul Clemens - R Cubs John Lackey - R 9-63 W7.0 O 10-8 0-2 5-3170 8.0 9
Aug 04, 2016 boxThu home Reds Brandon Finnegan - LCardinals Mike Leake - R 7-07 W-2.0 U 11-5 0-0 7-0132 9.0 9

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@ Biz:
You have used sportsdatabase.com to query these variables, right?
How you formulated the query?

Too bad they don't have the data but just from the beginning of the 2010 season.
For a lot of more complicated variables they have just the last 4-5 seasons with data, more basic info they have in the database since 2004.

I've played a little bit with these queries myself too about 1 year ago, I found some nice results overall (since 2004), but always if I broke them down to per single seasons, the records were wildly variable - like a mix of some very nicely winning seasons with some clear loser ones.
So I could not come up with nothing good enough from here to use to date...
 

Biz

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- I like to go back to 2010 to keep it recent.
- I don't use systems with wild variations from year to year.
- The query is at the top of the results.

From 2004-2009

op:R1 >= 4 and op:R1 + 1 = op:S9 and season < 2010 and D and SG > 1
SU:16-14 (-0.80, 53.3%) avg line: 128.2 / -140.2 on / against: +$565 / -$755 ROI: +18.8% / -18.0%
RL:9-6 (0.17, 60.0%) avg line: -149.0 / 131.3 on / against: +$80 / -$140 ROI: +3.5% / -8.6%
OU:19-8-3 (1.38, 70.4%) avg total: 9.1 over / under: +$1,035 / -$1,295 ROI: +31.5% / -39.1%

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