Hey everybody. As we all know, we have an absolutely incredible handicapper here in Pennywise. Over the past few months, when I would read something that can help me become a better capper, I would copy and paste it into a folder. I didn't start looking around betting forums to just follow someone else's plays. I want to learn. PW has talked before about opportunity. It's not just opportunity for a certain team to beat another. We have an opportunity to learn from someone who is successful. I'm trying to seize this opportunity, and I hope all of you are also. I hope PW stays here for a very long time, but as you know, things sometimes change. Here's a sample of some of the things I pasted into a folder that I wanted to remember.
The Bases is where you make the money !!
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HOW ABOUT WE WIN SOME MONEY TONIGHT BOYS !!!!
HAHAHAHHAHA
PEACE
PENNYWISE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I wanted to also answer some of you that have written me about my program or system i use in the BASES. I honestly dont have one. I really dont. I dont even really worry about trends. The Bases change so much with regards to players that those trends even a year ago are different due to personnel changes. I play the based straight up. I use my knowledge of baseball. Been Capping for about 25 years. Stopped working about 10 years ago and made capping my full time gig. I play $1000 a game and as you know typically play ONE GAME. I never understood the folks that play 10 games. No way you can cap that. I mean no harm to folks that do but just think of how much has to go your way to land even half of the 10.
So, I play one game. $1000 and let it ride. I will salt in two games a day here and there...or I will double up rarely but from time to time...Typically I will take home between 40K or 50K in the BASES a year... Football would be the next easiest capping. I personally think NBA is a train wreck and never play that. You can just see guys jonesing it at times..
But I really dont use a system per say. I look at matchups. Maybe some trend in who is HOT coming in but I look at the pitchers and who they will be facing that night. Why do you think I rarely WIN rain delays....haha ALL MY JUJU goes right out the window... I just look at the pitchers and the teams batting order and how it is set up. How I feel it will shape up versus the hurler and then some minor ball park tweaks... I never look at umps like some do... i never really found an edge there... So that is about it. Pretty basic baseball knowledge and me capping for 2.5 decades..haha
Hope that helps...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cap your games with out the lines.... the lines mean nothing. They are only a price tag to what you wish to purchase. You gotta look at it that way....
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't consider anything that is outside of my ability. Not to sound cocky but I truly don't. People will say the public is on this or that...or this great capper is on this or that.. I pay no attention
Regardless if its in my favor or not. I cap my games in silence. And let them ride...
One thing you will see a lot is where folks cap to a line...they look at the lines first. I do not. I cap each game on my own. After that is done....I look at the line. To me, the line means nothing. Its just someone's opinion. Who are they? The lines only effect me by saying " is the price worth it" If I love a game and its -250, I will pass....things like that...but if I love something and its -130, lets dance...that sort of thing
So, I honestly cap my games in silence with no outside interference. I then take that data and then and only then do I look at the lines
So, my mind is pretty much made up before I even look at my book...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
yea... you watch most of your cappers will go immediately to the lines... they can really taint you... they are only a price tag to your play...thats all...
Like yesterday, you had someone yapping about how this one play was everything and that they would get paid back the $5K if it lost... you see folks like that trying to persuade the line ... for example...who says they don't have the other team and they come on to just persuade you to bet the other side...driving up the value on the play. I think that play lost by 6 runs... who says they didnt come on here to tell you TAKE THE OTHER TEAM TAKE THE OTHER TEAM....in hopes of getting an even better price ...happens a lot
Cap your games on the toilet and then ..and only then look at the price to your work
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Never worried about line movements. Maybe unless the starters bailed but otherwise lets play some ball. Ud drive urself nuts tryin to figure it out.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trust me ...you wont win a bundle sitting around and betting the line movement. People have tried and now they roam my neighborhood in their ropes eating whole bakeries asking why Skritch didnt have a bigger part.... BOL FELLOWS !!!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh. And i never hedge !!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Its all good guys...
Its a long season. We are going to go through huge streaks of winning and we will go through some losing streaks. Its baseball and if you havent noticed most games are decided by ONE swing. We have won a ton of games by way of GETTING that one swing. To be honest, ALOT OF TIMES..haha Recently we havent... Saturday was a won run lose .... and last night was a ONE RUN LOSE. We needed one swing and in those two cases we didnt get it. Happens.. And look the other lose recently was really ONE INNING.... hahah
So baseball is so razor thin and has always been.....
So you buckle up and you play the WHOLE season and not the line movements and the play swings. You figure, I play $1000 a game... so Incubus's record is right... I went back last night and i am up a little over $19K LIFE IS GOOD ... if you play $100 to win, you are up $1900.
Allow me to let you in on a secret... you want to win 70%. That is the goal. You will typically win about $45K when you do that. or atleast my prior years have.
So, i know alot of folks have been sending me notifications with concern... or its OVER... haha Chill a bit. its a MARATHON... We rattle off like 19 of 20 then lose 2 or 3 and all is lost... ITS GOING TO HAPPEN... and guess what... IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN..hahaha
Today, you have the public betting down the CUBS .. well... they havent been ripping the ball like they did in the first 25 games. Well I would tell those folks the same thing... YOU CAN'T keep that level up ALLLLL SEASON. you are going to have ups and downs.. Plus they think because its in magical St Louis, Arrieta is bound to lose. They might be right but I dont think so....so let's take our 21-2 side record into St Louis and POUND the WIN OUT !!! hahaha
So, anyway... just note the season is long. REALLY LONG.... we are still 7 or 8 weeks away from the ALL START GAME...THE MID WAY POINT....TONS OF GAMES TO PLAY....
The goal isnt to have to win every day ... the goal is to win over the haul...... and to play with the houses money as you go... we are.... as we show a 19+ until stand..
Hope this helps...
Can we do one thing ..... LET'S WIN SOME D*MN MONEY !!!
PEACE
PENNWISE
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hey Brothers
Some of you have sent me some inmail about LOADING UP on games and if I do that. The answer is....NO. I think I have asked Incubus to hit with a Double Deuce once... I would even play my first game at $1000 or your normal play ...then my second game at maybe even a lower rate... Cause I am telling you, there is typically one value game a day. Its so hard to play 2 in a day. Now some guys can but for how long. Its hard. Did I like the game late night last night with the Stros and Angels...Yea... I wouldnt have played and posted it if I didnt play it myself or thought it was a 10. But one has to figure....it WASNT as high as the first play in BRAUT TOWN yesterday... Hope that makes sense
I typically play ONE GAME...for $1000. I have done this for years... Every once in a while I will double deuce it and put it too $2K. But rare..... very rare....
I would just tell you NOT to MORTGAGE a play...put your mortgage on it...that just crazy. No game is NOT that much different than the other. As Incubus said. MONEY MANAGEMENT BOYS. Its the key...
We have 23K WON THIS YEAR. My goal is $25K before the All Star Game. It has always been my goal and the goal at the end of the year is $50K. if I can pull $50K out of the year, I am happy happy happy. So we are right on track actually very much ahead.
Don't worry about one game .....Its a Long season. It requires patience and it requires commitment, vision and a goal.
So, play consistent and you will rarely chase. The chase is the kiss of death. For those that dont know the chase.... the chase is where you start doubling up to win back the day before....and the problem is you start to miss things in games and you start to panic. SHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Play consistent. Play smart. and Play within you means...
Hope this helps
NOW..CAN WE WILL SOME DANG MONEY !!!!
HAHAHHAHAHAHAH
PEACE
PENNYWISE
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bet the game. Not the line movement. Who says the other guy is right.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gentleman... You ll have heard of the SANDCASTLE theory, havent you? When folks are winning and or doing well, more folks like to tear things down. Its easier. Its so hard to build a bank roll like we have.
so you are going to see folks laying in wait ... lose a few... AND KABOOM, they are at your door step bashing either the poster or the followers. I have only see this 1000000 times.. Its all good. I appreciate the MODS taking control. Good to see, cause at the end of the day, we are here to fight the MAN or the BOOK. They are the only enemies we have...
Oh... you want to know why I mentioned a SANDCASTLE and EVEN PUT IT TO A THEORY....
Face it.... Every time you build a masterpiece in the sand, how many people walk by and help build it up...make it better.... instead of.... this... HAHA...
So, let's get back to winning... I think we are up $21K or $22K Let's get it to !!!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thank Fellows ! Just happy I can help .... at the end of the day the only enemy is the MAN..... he is the only one that can take ur money....
So happy to help anyone that dares to challenge him...
So HOW BOUT WE WIN SOME D*NG MONEY TONIGHT BOYS !!!
HAHAHAHAHAHHA
Peace
Pennywise
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You bring up a good question BARONMAN
Why don't I go Tout... Cause the only MOFO that should be paying anyone for anything in the gaming word is the MAN... HE PAYS US and that is the only $$$$$$$$ transaction that will go down as long as I have a say.....
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hey Brothers...
I had some time today to post up some thoughts here. A lot of you have messaged me about bashing and or even come to the thread to voice some displeasure with some other cappers coming in and spamming or in one's mind spamming.
I just wanted to share some thoughts here...
1) I don't cap against other cappers. I cap against the man, not another capper. The goal here is not ONE game either....or one Capper. The goal is to win over the entire year. So, if I would have lost last night and this other capper would have won.... so what? Its not about that... at least to the point of why I play. I play to beat the MAN. PERIOD.
2) I listen. You will learn more. Let other cappers come in and voice their opinion. Yes, it is very iffy when a capper comes and says things like " Be careful" Or " Watch out" with zero insight. Now, I don't provide a ton of insight on why I pick a game in my own threads. I actually do the opposite where i attempt to make some fun of it. But otherwise you would get a 4 page thread on why I like a game... But what I would do is if I went into another capper's thread I would share WHY. Not just say " Better not do that"
3) Take last nights game for example. My opinion there was not one reason to take the BRAVES there last night. NOT A ONE. HAHAHA I would have loved to have heard a reason why I should be careful or why I shouldnt play it. I am not saying I will listen but I am always interested to hear others and their respective thoughts.
4) Little secret to Capping. Its called OPPORTUNITY. To me its everything... It why I pick a game versus another game. OPPORTUNITY and what one does with it when they get it. Everyone gets opportunity in life or in a game. HOW DO YOU ADDRESS IT when it comes.....Do you take advantage of it..... that is the key to capping and most don't even look at it....
Let's CAP last nights game.
1) You start with the obvious. Records. 45-30 vs 26-50. ADVANTAGE - INDIANS
2) Home Field - 11-30 Home Record for the Braves. Winning AWAY Record for the Indians ADVANTAGE - INDIANS
3) Pitchers - BAUER vs GANT BAUER - 3 ERA - Gave up 4 or More Runs...ONCE. Only pitched less than 6 innings ONCE. Versus a SPOT PITCHER who hasnt pitched this many innings in years. ??????????????????? GO figure he gets hurt...... ADVANTAGE - INDIANS
4) Line ups - Indians. 6 Legitimate Hitters. Braves - 1 Legitimate Hitter. I mean someone that can change a game. ADVANTAGE - INDIANS
5) Record of Capping with the selected Teams. Yes. We had our share of loses ...4 with the Braves but if it takes a Bad Decision by MATTY to lose....so be it. If it takes a 123lb Peterson to go deep on me to win it...So be it. If it takes serious JET LAG for the Giants to win a day game after traveling the night before to lose to the BRAVES...so be it... Keuschal of the Astros tanking after a CY YOUNG YEAR versus them at HOME...to win it... You can have it. Look at how we lost those games and not just the record...
6) OPPORTUNITY !!! What do these teams do in a given situation where opportunity is provided. Can they string hits together. Do they have enough players in a row to hurt you. The Braves have ONE GUY. Seriously. ONE GUY. People are going to probably argue that but it is what it is... ONE GUY. You cant string multiple hits together if you only have one guy that can change it. Indians have like 5 or 6..... ADVANTAGE - INDIANS. Oh remember the RAYS that year they went out and hired CANSECO and CASTILLA and some other big hitters. They couldnt score. No one got on base...haha Every homerun was a solo shot...
7) RUN THE GAME. You have to run the game. Play the game through. BAUER. He walks a lot of people which if we learn anything in MONEY BALL they COUNT !!!! But can the Braves take advantage of them. The answer is FLAT NO. So Bauer, as he was yesterday, can be average and still close this game up. DeSclafini on Sunday with the Padres. Same concept. GANT WALKS ANYONE or WHO EVER ON THE BRAVES DOES, YOU have 5 or 6 guys that can sting you big time..
So basically after capping that game. The Braves would have to play flawless to win it. FLAWLESS. And then common gaming practices is if you take or bet your money on the WORST TEAM in BASEBALL please for the love of god, get +200 or +300.... Not...+125 or what ever it was...it wasnt +200. Its simply not worth it.
So, anyway. Those are some of the progressions that one goes through when looking at any game. There is more depth but too much to type. Oh take a look at my game on Saturday where I lost. OVER 8 or 8.5 with the YANKS and TWINS. I thought I could neutralize the complete lack of opportunity these two teams take advantage of because the hurlers were just so bad....but it pitched me. OPPORTUNITY and what teams do with it is key to the game.... Its actually everything
Hope that helps!
So, let folks come in. Hopefully they share why they think I am wrong or any other capper is wrong. I will listen. If they win. Congrats but my day is not spent beating another capper or caring if I lost to one...Its to beat the man...cause he is the only one you will owe...
PEACE
PENNYWISE
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Hey my brothers. Well, I think one has to define a run ? A Streak? More specifically, how many games is a streak or a run versus..... you just know how to cap. haha Honestly, I think after about 30 plays you tend to move away from streaks and talks of runs...and say....hmmmm he can cap ...or ...he cant...haha
You dont want me capping your NBA GAMES. But the bases I know... Is this the best ..... no ...honestly it isnt.... I hit this every year.... about 70% when its all said and done.. So we are right on par this year...THE OVER UNDER ALWAYS COOL YOU DOWN..hahahahaha this year...no different
I can tell you my best FIRST 50 SIDES.......... well if anyone was in the SBR FORUM back a few years ago we sat at 48-2 after our first 50. That was my best record at the 50 mark... today we are 40-10... so a bit off the mark... But I had an ID of the MAD PROFESSOR ...haha Use to screw around with them but the bashing was just overwhelming and your plays got lost in the mess... the MODS were awful there....
Lets face it...... People hate success.. Back in the day a guy would drive his down the street and you would say " DANG MAN, he has it going on ....."
Today...... you say " Look at him....... F&CKING A@@HOLE" while you heave a rock at it....
Times are different...
I come in here to shoot the sh*t ...have a little fun.... win a little money.... all good...
WELL...
Let's get after it tonight !!!!
AND WIN SOME DANG MONEY !!!
AND KING....There are no JINXs here my brother...if you jump on and I lose.... I LOST.... hahahaha NO WORRIES !!!
PEACE
PENNYWISE
The Bases is where you make the money !!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOW ABOUT WE WIN SOME MONEY TONIGHT BOYS !!!!
HAHAHAHHAHA
PEACE
PENNYWISE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I wanted to also answer some of you that have written me about my program or system i use in the BASES. I honestly dont have one. I really dont. I dont even really worry about trends. The Bases change so much with regards to players that those trends even a year ago are different due to personnel changes. I play the based straight up. I use my knowledge of baseball. Been Capping for about 25 years. Stopped working about 10 years ago and made capping my full time gig. I play $1000 a game and as you know typically play ONE GAME. I never understood the folks that play 10 games. No way you can cap that. I mean no harm to folks that do but just think of how much has to go your way to land even half of the 10.
So, I play one game. $1000 and let it ride. I will salt in two games a day here and there...or I will double up rarely but from time to time...Typically I will take home between 40K or 50K in the BASES a year... Football would be the next easiest capping. I personally think NBA is a train wreck and never play that. You can just see guys jonesing it at times..
But I really dont use a system per say. I look at matchups. Maybe some trend in who is HOT coming in but I look at the pitchers and who they will be facing that night. Why do you think I rarely WIN rain delays....haha ALL MY JUJU goes right out the window... I just look at the pitchers and the teams batting order and how it is set up. How I feel it will shape up versus the hurler and then some minor ball park tweaks... I never look at umps like some do... i never really found an edge there... So that is about it. Pretty basic baseball knowledge and me capping for 2.5 decades..haha
Hope that helps...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cap your games with out the lines.... the lines mean nothing. They are only a price tag to what you wish to purchase. You gotta look at it that way....
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't consider anything that is outside of my ability. Not to sound cocky but I truly don't. People will say the public is on this or that...or this great capper is on this or that.. I pay no attention
Regardless if its in my favor or not. I cap my games in silence. And let them ride...
One thing you will see a lot is where folks cap to a line...they look at the lines first. I do not. I cap each game on my own. After that is done....I look at the line. To me, the line means nothing. Its just someone's opinion. Who are they? The lines only effect me by saying " is the price worth it" If I love a game and its -250, I will pass....things like that...but if I love something and its -130, lets dance...that sort of thing
So, I honestly cap my games in silence with no outside interference. I then take that data and then and only then do I look at the lines
So, my mind is pretty much made up before I even look at my book...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
yea... you watch most of your cappers will go immediately to the lines... they can really taint you... they are only a price tag to your play...thats all...
Like yesterday, you had someone yapping about how this one play was everything and that they would get paid back the $5K if it lost... you see folks like that trying to persuade the line ... for example...who says they don't have the other team and they come on to just persuade you to bet the other side...driving up the value on the play. I think that play lost by 6 runs... who says they didnt come on here to tell you TAKE THE OTHER TEAM TAKE THE OTHER TEAM....in hopes of getting an even better price ...happens a lot
Cap your games on the toilet and then ..and only then look at the price to your work
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Never worried about line movements. Maybe unless the starters bailed but otherwise lets play some ball. Ud drive urself nuts tryin to figure it out.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trust me ...you wont win a bundle sitting around and betting the line movement. People have tried and now they roam my neighborhood in their ropes eating whole bakeries asking why Skritch didnt have a bigger part.... BOL FELLOWS !!!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh. And i never hedge !!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Its all good guys...
Its a long season. We are going to go through huge streaks of winning and we will go through some losing streaks. Its baseball and if you havent noticed most games are decided by ONE swing. We have won a ton of games by way of GETTING that one swing. To be honest, ALOT OF TIMES..haha Recently we havent... Saturday was a won run lose .... and last night was a ONE RUN LOSE. We needed one swing and in those two cases we didnt get it. Happens.. And look the other lose recently was really ONE INNING.... hahah
So baseball is so razor thin and has always been.....
So you buckle up and you play the WHOLE season and not the line movements and the play swings. You figure, I play $1000 a game... so Incubus's record is right... I went back last night and i am up a little over $19K LIFE IS GOOD ... if you play $100 to win, you are up $1900.
Allow me to let you in on a secret... you want to win 70%. That is the goal. You will typically win about $45K when you do that. or atleast my prior years have.
So, i know alot of folks have been sending me notifications with concern... or its OVER... haha Chill a bit. its a MARATHON... We rattle off like 19 of 20 then lose 2 or 3 and all is lost... ITS GOING TO HAPPEN... and guess what... IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN..hahaha
Today, you have the public betting down the CUBS .. well... they havent been ripping the ball like they did in the first 25 games. Well I would tell those folks the same thing... YOU CAN'T keep that level up ALLLLL SEASON. you are going to have ups and downs.. Plus they think because its in magical St Louis, Arrieta is bound to lose. They might be right but I dont think so....so let's take our 21-2 side record into St Louis and POUND the WIN OUT !!! hahaha
So, anyway... just note the season is long. REALLY LONG.... we are still 7 or 8 weeks away from the ALL START GAME...THE MID WAY POINT....TONS OF GAMES TO PLAY....
The goal isnt to have to win every day ... the goal is to win over the haul...... and to play with the houses money as you go... we are.... as we show a 19+ until stand..
Hope this helps...
Can we do one thing ..... LET'S WIN SOME D*MN MONEY !!!
PEACE
PENNWISE
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hey Brothers
Some of you have sent me some inmail about LOADING UP on games and if I do that. The answer is....NO. I think I have asked Incubus to hit with a Double Deuce once... I would even play my first game at $1000 or your normal play ...then my second game at maybe even a lower rate... Cause I am telling you, there is typically one value game a day. Its so hard to play 2 in a day. Now some guys can but for how long. Its hard. Did I like the game late night last night with the Stros and Angels...Yea... I wouldnt have played and posted it if I didnt play it myself or thought it was a 10. But one has to figure....it WASNT as high as the first play in BRAUT TOWN yesterday... Hope that makes sense
I typically play ONE GAME...for $1000. I have done this for years... Every once in a while I will double deuce it and put it too $2K. But rare..... very rare....
I would just tell you NOT to MORTGAGE a play...put your mortgage on it...that just crazy. No game is NOT that much different than the other. As Incubus said. MONEY MANAGEMENT BOYS. Its the key...
We have 23K WON THIS YEAR. My goal is $25K before the All Star Game. It has always been my goal and the goal at the end of the year is $50K. if I can pull $50K out of the year, I am happy happy happy. So we are right on track actually very much ahead.
Don't worry about one game .....Its a Long season. It requires patience and it requires commitment, vision and a goal.
So, play consistent and you will rarely chase. The chase is the kiss of death. For those that dont know the chase.... the chase is where you start doubling up to win back the day before....and the problem is you start to miss things in games and you start to panic. SHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Play consistent. Play smart. and Play within you means...
Hope this helps
NOW..CAN WE WILL SOME DANG MONEY !!!!
HAHAHHAHAHAHAH
PEACE
PENNYWISE
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bet the game. Not the line movement. Who says the other guy is right.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gentleman... You ll have heard of the SANDCASTLE theory, havent you? When folks are winning and or doing well, more folks like to tear things down. Its easier. Its so hard to build a bank roll like we have.
so you are going to see folks laying in wait ... lose a few... AND KABOOM, they are at your door step bashing either the poster or the followers. I have only see this 1000000 times.. Its all good. I appreciate the MODS taking control. Good to see, cause at the end of the day, we are here to fight the MAN or the BOOK. They are the only enemies we have...
Oh... you want to know why I mentioned a SANDCASTLE and EVEN PUT IT TO A THEORY....
Face it.... Every time you build a masterpiece in the sand, how many people walk by and help build it up...make it better.... instead of.... this... HAHA...
So, let's get back to winning... I think we are up $21K or $22K Let's get it to !!!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thank Fellows ! Just happy I can help .... at the end of the day the only enemy is the MAN..... he is the only one that can take ur money....
So happy to help anyone that dares to challenge him...
So HOW BOUT WE WIN SOME D*NG MONEY TONIGHT BOYS !!!
HAHAHAHAHAHHA
Peace
Pennywise
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You bring up a good question BARONMAN
Why don't I go Tout... Cause the only MOFO that should be paying anyone for anything in the gaming word is the MAN... HE PAYS US and that is the only $$$$$$$$ transaction that will go down as long as I have a say.....
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hey Brothers...
I had some time today to post up some thoughts here. A lot of you have messaged me about bashing and or even come to the thread to voice some displeasure with some other cappers coming in and spamming or in one's mind spamming.
I just wanted to share some thoughts here...
1) I don't cap against other cappers. I cap against the man, not another capper. The goal here is not ONE game either....or one Capper. The goal is to win over the entire year. So, if I would have lost last night and this other capper would have won.... so what? Its not about that... at least to the point of why I play. I play to beat the MAN. PERIOD.
2) I listen. You will learn more. Let other cappers come in and voice their opinion. Yes, it is very iffy when a capper comes and says things like " Be careful" Or " Watch out" with zero insight. Now, I don't provide a ton of insight on why I pick a game in my own threads. I actually do the opposite where i attempt to make some fun of it. But otherwise you would get a 4 page thread on why I like a game... But what I would do is if I went into another capper's thread I would share WHY. Not just say " Better not do that"
3) Take last nights game for example. My opinion there was not one reason to take the BRAVES there last night. NOT A ONE. HAHAHA I would have loved to have heard a reason why I should be careful or why I shouldnt play it. I am not saying I will listen but I am always interested to hear others and their respective thoughts.
4) Little secret to Capping. Its called OPPORTUNITY. To me its everything... It why I pick a game versus another game. OPPORTUNITY and what one does with it when they get it. Everyone gets opportunity in life or in a game. HOW DO YOU ADDRESS IT when it comes.....Do you take advantage of it..... that is the key to capping and most don't even look at it....
Let's CAP last nights game.
1) You start with the obvious. Records. 45-30 vs 26-50. ADVANTAGE - INDIANS
2) Home Field - 11-30 Home Record for the Braves. Winning AWAY Record for the Indians ADVANTAGE - INDIANS
3) Pitchers - BAUER vs GANT BAUER - 3 ERA - Gave up 4 or More Runs...ONCE. Only pitched less than 6 innings ONCE. Versus a SPOT PITCHER who hasnt pitched this many innings in years. ??????????????????? GO figure he gets hurt...... ADVANTAGE - INDIANS
4) Line ups - Indians. 6 Legitimate Hitters. Braves - 1 Legitimate Hitter. I mean someone that can change a game. ADVANTAGE - INDIANS
5) Record of Capping with the selected Teams. Yes. We had our share of loses ...4 with the Braves but if it takes a Bad Decision by MATTY to lose....so be it. If it takes a 123lb Peterson to go deep on me to win it...So be it. If it takes serious JET LAG for the Giants to win a day game after traveling the night before to lose to the BRAVES...so be it... Keuschal of the Astros tanking after a CY YOUNG YEAR versus them at HOME...to win it... You can have it. Look at how we lost those games and not just the record...
6) OPPORTUNITY !!! What do these teams do in a given situation where opportunity is provided. Can they string hits together. Do they have enough players in a row to hurt you. The Braves have ONE GUY. Seriously. ONE GUY. People are going to probably argue that but it is what it is... ONE GUY. You cant string multiple hits together if you only have one guy that can change it. Indians have like 5 or 6..... ADVANTAGE - INDIANS. Oh remember the RAYS that year they went out and hired CANSECO and CASTILLA and some other big hitters. They couldnt score. No one got on base...haha Every homerun was a solo shot...
7) RUN THE GAME. You have to run the game. Play the game through. BAUER. He walks a lot of people which if we learn anything in MONEY BALL they COUNT !!!! But can the Braves take advantage of them. The answer is FLAT NO. So Bauer, as he was yesterday, can be average and still close this game up. DeSclafini on Sunday with the Padres. Same concept. GANT WALKS ANYONE or WHO EVER ON THE BRAVES DOES, YOU have 5 or 6 guys that can sting you big time..
So basically after capping that game. The Braves would have to play flawless to win it. FLAWLESS. And then common gaming practices is if you take or bet your money on the WORST TEAM in BASEBALL please for the love of god, get +200 or +300.... Not...+125 or what ever it was...it wasnt +200. Its simply not worth it.
So, anyway. Those are some of the progressions that one goes through when looking at any game. There is more depth but too much to type. Oh take a look at my game on Saturday where I lost. OVER 8 or 8.5 with the YANKS and TWINS. I thought I could neutralize the complete lack of opportunity these two teams take advantage of because the hurlers were just so bad....but it pitched me. OPPORTUNITY and what teams do with it is key to the game.... Its actually everything
Hope that helps!
So, let folks come in. Hopefully they share why they think I am wrong or any other capper is wrong. I will listen. If they win. Congrats but my day is not spent beating another capper or caring if I lost to one...Its to beat the man...cause he is the only one you will owe...
PEACE
PENNYWISE
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Hey my brothers. Well, I think one has to define a run ? A Streak? More specifically, how many games is a streak or a run versus..... you just know how to cap. haha Honestly, I think after about 30 plays you tend to move away from streaks and talks of runs...and say....hmmmm he can cap ...or ...he cant...haha
You dont want me capping your NBA GAMES. But the bases I know... Is this the best ..... no ...honestly it isnt.... I hit this every year.... about 70% when its all said and done.. So we are right on par this year...THE OVER UNDER ALWAYS COOL YOU DOWN..hahahahaha this year...no different
I can tell you my best FIRST 50 SIDES.......... well if anyone was in the SBR FORUM back a few years ago we sat at 48-2 after our first 50. That was my best record at the 50 mark... today we are 40-10... so a bit off the mark... But I had an ID of the MAD PROFESSOR ...haha Use to screw around with them but the bashing was just overwhelming and your plays got lost in the mess... the MODS were awful there....
Lets face it...... People hate success.. Back in the day a guy would drive his down the street and you would say " DANG MAN, he has it going on ....."
Today...... you say " Look at him....... F&CKING A@@HOLE" while you heave a rock at it....
Times are different...
I come in here to shoot the sh*t ...have a little fun.... win a little money.... all good...
WELL...
Let's get after it tonight !!!!
AND WIN SOME DANG MONEY !!!
AND KING....There are no JINXs here my brother...if you jump on and I lose.... I LOST.... hahahaha NO WORRIES !!!
PEACE
PENNYWISE
