UFC 202: Main Card Preview and Predictions
from Steven Rondina - Bleacher Report
Cody Garbrandt (9-0), Takeya Mizugaki (21-9-2)
Cody Garbrandt is the hottest prospect in the game right now. Twenty-five years old, undefeated, well-coached and knocking people out left and right, it's hard not to fall in love with No Love. The UFC is certainly smitten with him as well, giving him prominent placement on cards and setting him on a path that could quickly line him up for a title shot.
Fresh off an impressive win over former “next big thing” Thomas Almeida, he looks to maintain his momentum with a win over respected veteran Takeya Mizugaki. That, however, is easier said than done.
While Garbrandt has captured the attention of fans and pundits, Mizugaki has been a reliable, formidable, high-level bantamweight for the better part of a decade. In many ways, he falls into the niche Michael Bisping long held at 185 pounds, with a strong all-around game held back by an unfortunate lack of stopping power that relegates him to “perennial contender” status.
The Japanese veteran can be counted on to, at the very least, keep things competitive. Bettors will likely favor the youngster, and rightly so. That said, this is far from a slam dunk.
Prediction: Cody Garbrandt def. Takeya Mizugaki by unanimous decision
Tim Means (25-7-1), Sean Strickland (18-1)
Sean Strickland threw the UFC a curveball by eking out a win over top British prospect Tom Breese. Now he's getting thrown into the deep end to see if he has what it takes to hack it against established welterweights. To be more specific, established welterweights like Tim Means.
After being released from the UFC in 2013, Means returned less than a year later and carved a niche as one of the better fighters at 170 pounds. He has come up short against top-10 competition, dropping fights to both Matt Brown and Neil Magny, but anyone that isn't an especially well-rounded competitor will struggle against the Dirty Bird.
That makes him the perfect test for a surging youngster like Strickland. At 25 years old and with a strong 18-1 record against solid competition, there is a lot to like about him. If he can get through Means, it could be the start of big things. If not? He goes back to the drawing board.
It's tough to peg which way things will break. Means could win the day with his punches and knees, but Strickland could outwork Means with his grappling and work against the cage. Either way, this one should be guaranteed excitement.
Prediction: Tim Means def. Sean Strickland by unanimous decision
Donald Cerrone (30-7), Rick Story (19-8)
Donald Cerrone answered an important question in Canada a few weeks back. By defeating former middleweight contender Patrick Cote, Cowboy showed that his skills do translate to the welterweight division. His rangy striking? The pop in his punches? The snakelike submission skills? All present and accounted for, even against larger opponents.
With that out of the way, the fan favorite has a straight shot to a welterweight title berth. All he needs to do is score a couple of wins over top-10 competitors. Enter Rick Story.
After three roller-coaster years in the UFC, Story has seemingly returned for form of late, returning from a lengthy hiatus and showing off an improved clinch striking game to go along with his established grappling. Now on a winning streak that includes Icelandic grappling star Gunnar Nelson and former Strikeforce champion Tarec Saffiedine, he is actually getting close to a title shot for the first time since 2011.
That makes this fight an interesting one between two enigmatic-but-exciting talents. Story could box Cerrone up in close en route to a decision win. Cerrone, however, could keep things at a comfortable distance and outland Story from range.
This writer will lean in Story's direction...for now. Next week? Who knows?
Prediction: Rick Story def. Donald Cerrone by unanimous decision
Anthony Johnson (21-5), Glover Teixeira (25-4)
Slugger meets slugger.
Glover Teixeira entered the UFC with a great deal of hype and, for a time, it seemed like that was just about all he had. A rushed title shot was followed by two ugly losses that threatened to lock him into midtier status for life, but he avoided that fate by scoring three impressive stoppage victories over Ovince Saint Preux, Patrick Cummins and Rashad Evans.
With the light heavyweight division potentially Jon Jones-less for the next two years, the door to title contention has been flung open to Teixeira...if he can score the biggest win of his career.
Despite a never-ending stream of what the UFC would call “personal issues,” Anthony Johnson is a downright excellent fighter. A wrestler turned potent striker, Rumble has established himself as the hardest hitter in the light heavyweight division with knockout wins over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Ryan Bader and Alexander Gustafsson. There are few fighters that can take him down, and few that can avoid his big hands for any length of time. That applies to Teixeira as well.
Johnson is the favorite here, but victory is far from guaranteed. In the last two years, Teixeira's one-dimensional striking has become much less predictable, and there's no reason that he can't outrumble Johnson with a well-placed left hook or right uppercut. Johnson is most likely the safer bet...but this is one to avoid putting money on.
Prediction: Anthony Johnson def. Glover Teixeira by TKO in Round 2
Nate Diaz (19-10), Conor McGregor (19-3)
Gallons of digital ink have been spilled on this fight, but there is still so, so much to talk about.
The stakes are high for both Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor.
Diaz has reached seemingly impossible heights of popularity since defeating McGregor at UFC 196. Going 2-0 over the Irish striker certainly won't hurt his brand. Splitting the series, though, would draw out those unflattering questions about the legitimacy of his first win.
McGregor, meanwhile, has delighted and/or infuriated fans with his ability to both talk the talk, and walk the walk. It feels like an eternity ago that the MMA world was discussing the so-called Mystic Mac and his ability to predict how his fights would transpire with an eerie accuracy. An emphatic win would turn back the clock. A loss would cause irreversible damage.
The political subplots to this fight are downright tantalizing.
Diaz has butted heads with UFC brass for years, and UFC President Dana White has been visibly struggling to deal with it. If Diaz walks away as the winner of two of the biggest main events in UFC history, he will wield even more leverage at the negotiating table.
McGregor already holds more sway over his fate than any fighter in the company, and has pressured the UFC into throwing out its playbook on more than a few occasions already. Even in defeat, he hasn't given up the ability to call his own shots, and how the UFC-McGregor power struggle shakes out remains one of the most interesting stories in MMA today.
And of course, there's also the UFC's reportedly souring sale to WME-IMG to ponder. What if this fight falls apart once again? What if it doesn't perform well on pay-per-view? What if McGregor's popularity dips? Could those be the straws that break this proverbial camel's back?
There is so much riding on this fight for every party. The only real prediction that can be made is that, regardless of the outcome, it will result in pure chaos.
Prediction: Conor McGregor def. Nate Diaz by unanimous decision